~~~The Official New Hampshire Primary Thread~~~

[Carmen813]

I don't like to be a Hillary hater, but I basically am. I do not like her stance on numerous issues.

I live in upstate NY, and she basically came here to secure her nomination for president by winning an easy Senate seat. She isn't a New Yorker, she came here to go to the next step. Which is fine, but at least Obama was from the state he represents.

Healthcare is a major issue for me this campaign, as me and my fiancee are 23 year old cancer survivors. Hillary's 'mandate' scares me, because frankly I don't see how we could afford healthcare. Right now we are covered by our parents, and we are trying to find something we can get covered by so that we can get married. Until I see her provide real answers on how she expects low income families to afford her mandate, I cannot support her.

By Contrast, I love Obama's healthcare plan because it seems like it will actually work by addressing the flaws in our healthcare systems (pre-existing conditions, horrible ineffiencies, ect)

She to 'unpersonable' to me. She is definitely intelligent, but I want to see some emotion. Most of the time when I listen to her speak I get the feeling she is a robot just saying what the polls tell her to say. She supported the war, then didn't support it because she saw it was going poorly.

She doesn't inspire me. She is trying to ride on Bill Clinton's coattails. She claims she has 35 years of public life experience, but she has less elected experience then Obama. Probably the scariest poll I heard about today was that nearly all of the democrats who voted for Hillary would have voted for Bill if he could run again. Nearly all of Obama's supporters would have stayed with him. That says volumes.

The years under Bill Clinton, while good in comparision to G.W., were not amazing. His presidency just looks amazing because Bush's has been so bad.

The idea of Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush scares me. I hate these ancient political dynasties. They are embedded with money from special interests, and will not enact the change we need.

My ideal ticket? Obama-McCain. Both have shown themselves willing to reach across the isle to get things done. It'll never happen, but I can dream.

I registered Democrat in NY almost entirely because I want to vote against Hillary. I think America will see a woman president in my life time, and it doesn't need to be her.

 

[Carmen813]

Originally posted by: techs
Obama must not get out much.
In his concession speech he thanked the New Hampshire residents who came out in the cold and snow and voted.
It was a record high temp day all over New Hampshire.
People were voting in shorts and tee shirts.

Do you live in the NE? I'm in upstate NY. It was 70 today and if I look outside, I still see snow

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Carmen813

Originally posted by: techs
Obama must not get out much.
In his concession speech he thanked the New Hampshire residents who came out in the cold and snow and voted.
It was a record high temp day all over New Hampshire.
People were voting in shorts and tee shirts.

Do you live in the NE? I'm in upstate NY. It was 70 today and if I look outside, I still see snow

Strange you guys back east are having this warm winter, I live in western Oregon, and we had snow on the ground at my house this morning, a relatively rare occurance on the valley floors. I won't say this has been a particularly cold winter, but it certainly hasn't been a warm or a dry one, that's for sure...

 

[Carmen813]

It really hasn't been warm. We always have this fluke week in Early January with great weather just before we get slammed with bitter cold for 5 months.

 

[Vic]

Ah, the proverbial "false spring." We tend to get that in late January or closer to Groundhog's day. To be followed by 6 more months of rain

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

I almost feel like I have to go find an aluminum beanie... but doesn't it strike anyone as odd that the pre-election polls on the R side turned out to be pretty much right-on but the polls on the D side were WAY off?

According to the polls... virtually every poll I saw... Obama was going to win by 9, 10, 13 points. The polls in Iowa were dead on. Why not NH?

This guy has some possible reasons... http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenu...01/new-hampshires.html but he's just throwing out potential polling methodology problems and get-out-the-vote campaigns.

I dunno... it's so weird. Exit polling is usually a crap-shoot but pre-election polls are rarely off by that much, especially when the same organizations get all their other polls dead on.

So... *roll of foil in hand* What do you think?

 

[Carmen813]

I think Hillary's tear jerking yesterday had a major impact, along with Edward's railing against her so hard in the debate. She won 13% more women then Obama, and that was the race right there.

Vote If Bill Clinton Had Been Running Biden Clinton Dodd Edwards Gravel Kucinich Obama Richardson

If Bill Clinton had run against Hillary, 58% of the people who voted for her would have voted for Bill. Only 24% of Obama supports said the same thing. People in NH apparently want a Clinton 2.0 presidency.

From:
Exit Polls

 

[bozack]

Originally posted by: randym431

Charles Gibson said Hillary won due to a large turnout of female voters.

Who?
What?
What ever.... :roll:

Yeah, is this really a surprise? the number of women who vote for her simply because she is a woman will be staggering.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
I almost feel like I have to go find an aluminum beanie... but doesn't it strike anyone as odd that the pre-election polls on the R side turned out to be pretty much right-on but the polls on the D side were WAY off?

According to the polls... virtually every poll I saw... Obama was going to win by 9, 10, 13 points. The polls in Iowa were dead on. Why not NH?

This guy has some possible reasons... http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenu...01/new-hampshires.html but he's just throwing out potential polling methodology problems and get-out-the-vote campaigns.

I dunno... it's so weird. Exit polling is usually a crap-shoot but pre-election polls are rarely off by that much, especially when the same organizations get all their other polls dead on.

So... *roll of foil in hand* What do you think?

This is the very first thing I thought. That, and that maybe we were seeing 2000 Florida all over again, figured they called a close race too early. I still can't believe she won NH. Something seems off because, as you said, all the polls were showing 9-13% or thereabouts.

 

[aidanjm]

Originally posted by: bozack

Originally posted by: randym431

Charles Gibson said Hillary won due to a large turnout of female voters.

Who?
What?
What ever.... :roll:

Yeah, is this really a surprise? the number of women who vote for her simply because she is a woman will be staggering.

do you think they will outweigh the number of men who vote against her simply because she is a woman?

 

[imported_Shivetya]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
I almost feel like I have to go find an aluminum beanie... but doesn't it strike anyone as odd that the pre-election polls on the R side turned out to be pretty much right-on but the polls on the D side were WAY off?

According to the polls... virtually every poll I saw... Obama was going to win by 9, 10, 13 points. The polls in Iowa were dead on. Why not NH?

This guy has some possible reasons... http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenu...01/new-hampshires.html but he's just throwing out potential polling methodology problems and get-out-the-vote campaigns.

I dunno... it's so weird. Exit polling is usually a crap-shoot but pre-election polls are rarely off by that much, especially when the same organizations get all their other polls dead on.

So... *roll of foil in hand* What do you think?

This is the very first thing I thought. That, and that maybe we were seeing 2000 Florida all over again, figured they called a close race too early. I still can't believe she won NH. Something seems off because, as you said, all the polls were showing 9-13% or thereabouts.

Polls are of likely voters, as in not likely to actually vote, more likely happy someone wanted their opinion, likely that they post on message boards ranting and never really vote.

IOW - Hillary was going to win all the time, the North East is much friendlier towards the likes of her (big government etc).

Obama is just Dean with more staying power.

 

[bozack]

Originally posted by: aidanjm
do you think they will outweigh the number of men who vote against her simply because she is a woman?

Kinda reminds me of the "so do you still beat your wife?" question...

I do think women voting for her simply because she is a woman will be one of the largest factors in her success...win or lose alot of her votes/support will come from this set.

 

[M0RPH]

Originally posted by: Carmen813

Healthcare is a major issue for me this campaign, as me and my fiancee are 23 year old cancer survivors. Hillary's 'mandate' scares me, because frankly I don't see how we could afford healthcare. Right now we are covered by our parents, and we are trying to find something we can get covered by so that we can get married. Until I see her provide real answers on how she expects low income families to afford her mandate, I cannot support her.

What part of "universal health care" didn't you understand? Hilary's plan covers everyone. The whole point is even if you can't afford it, you'll be covered.

 

[Corbett]

Originally posted by: Confusednewbie1552

Originally posted by: Corbett

Originally posted by: bamacre
Four years from now, we'll have the moral authority to bitch about all the problems going unsolved, and the new ones that pop up.

I'd love to bring back up your conspiracy theories in 4 years just to see how they played out. North American Union would be number one on my list to see just how that turned out.

In any case, good waste of money donating to Paul. And here I thought his supporters were for fiscal responsiblity.

Why do you have such an insane passion for hating someone you claim to be a waste of time

I dont hate Paul. I actually like some of his ideas (very few I should say). However, his rabid supporters here are a whole different story. They claim if you dont support Pauls ideas you are just a person who wants to kill brown people, and thats just one of the many crazy things they believe.

So yes, i will admit I take an unhealthy ammount of enjoyment in seeing their latest savior do so poorly, but mostly because of the constant barrage of condescending posts from his supporters you see here every hour.

Funny, not a peep from Perry or PC Surgeon yet. LAWL!

 

[1EZduzit]

Originally posted by: Vic
Ah, the proverbial "false spring." We tend to get that in late January or closer to Groundhog's day. To be followed by 6 more months of rain

I have a general rule to help me determine when we've had the last blizzard of the season. Most of the time it's the storm after the one you thought was the last one.

 

[1EZduzit]

Originally posted by: bozack

Originally posted by: randym431

Charles Gibson said Hillary won due to a large turnout of female voters.

Who?
What?
What ever.... :roll:

Yeah, is this really a surprise? the number of women who vote for her simply because she is a woman will be staggering.

Yet so many people claim she can't win the general election. I think she would beat McCain hands down because of the women factor.

 

[lozina]

Originally posted by: Corbett
I dont hate Paul. I actually like some of his ideas (very few I should say). However, his rabid supporters here are a whole different story. They claim if you dont support Pauls ideas you are just a person who wants to kill brown people, and thats just one of the many crazy things they believe.

So yes, i will admit I take an unhealthy ammount of enjoyment in seeing their latest savior do so poorly, but mostly because of the constant barrage of condescending posts from his supporters you see here every hour.

Funny, not a peep from Perry or PC Surgeon yet. LAWL!

Poorly? The guy tied with Giuliani- and the mass media plasters Giuliani stories all day long. They are like an extension to the Giuliani campaign- especially CNN. Let me ask you- have you ever heard the media say "Longshot Giuliani"? Or let's say they talk about Giuliani as infrequently as they talk about Paul- would they footnote such discussions with a "-not that he has any chance"?

I'm really happy with the results in NH and I laugh at the face of the media who has made such a concerted effort to black Ron Paul out of the minds of the American public yet he still managed to tie their darling candidate in NH and beat him in Iowa. Hahaha

 

[imported_Shivetya]

Originally posted by: M0RPH

Originally posted by: Carmen813

Healthcare is a major issue for me this campaign, as me and my fiancee are 23 year old cancer survivors. Hillary's 'mandate' scares me, because frankly I don't see how we could afford healthcare. Right now we are covered by our parents, and we are trying to find something we can get covered by so that we can get married. Until I see her provide real answers on how she expects low income families to afford her mandate, I cannot support her.

What part of "universal health care" didn't you understand? Hilary's plan covers everyone. The whole point is even if you can't afford it, you'll be covered.

Ask yourself this, if the federal, state, and local, governments already pay 47% of all healthcare costs in America why are there people not covered?

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: Vic
Ah, the proverbial "false spring." We tend to get that in late January or closer to Groundhog's day. To be followed by 6 more months of rain

We used to call it the January thaw - 2nd-3rd week of January.
Feb/March were no-school months between snow & holdiays.

Eventually, a big 2 day storm pushes through around Patriots day and then spring arrives.

 

[lozina]

Does anyone know a site that lists the results by each voting precinct or county?

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: lozina

Originally posted by: Corbett
I dont hate Paul. I actually like some of his ideas (very few I should say). However, his rabid supporters here are a whole different story. They claim if you dont support Pauls ideas you are just a person who wants to kill brown people, and thats just one of the many crazy things they believe.

So yes, i will admit I take an unhealthy ammount of enjoyment in seeing their latest savior do so poorly, but mostly because of the constant barrage of condescending posts from his supporters you see here every hour.

Funny, not a peep from Perry or PC Surgeon yet. LAWL!

Poorly? The guy tied with Giuliani- and the mass media plasters Giuliani stories all day long. They are like an extension to the Giuliani campaign- especially CNN. Let me ask you- have you ever heard the media say "Longshot Giuliani"? Or let's say they talk about Giuliani as infrequently as they talk about Paul- would they footnote such discussions with a "-not that he has any chance"?

I'm really happy with the results in NH and I laugh at the face of the media who has made such a concerted effort to black Ron Paul out of the minds of the American public yet he still managed to tie their darling candidate in NH and beat him in Iowa. Hahaha

Again, Giuliani has been the front runner in the national polls. Ron Paul has polled below 10% nationally, and up until last week Giuliani was polling at 25% nationally with a 5-6% point lead. However he is now In a near three way tie with him, Huckabee, and McCain all hovering between 19-22%. and Paul is still under 10. Big whoop Paul beat and tied Giuliani in a state he didnt campaign in, and a state he bare campaigned in.

Giuliani leads in polls in places like Florida(by 6%), California(by 9%), New York(by over 30%), and New Jersey(by over 30%). So quit trying to compare Paul to Giuliani.

 

[lozina]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: lozina

Originally posted by: Corbett
I dont hate Paul. I actually like some of his ideas (very few I should say). However, his rabid supporters here are a whole different story. They claim if you dont support Pauls ideas you are just a person who wants to kill brown people, and thats just one of the many crazy things they believe.

So yes, i will admit I take an unhealthy ammount of enjoyment in seeing their latest savior do so poorly, but mostly because of the constant barrage of condescending posts from his supporters you see here every hour.

Funny, not a peep from Perry or PC Surgeon yet. LAWL!

Poorly? The guy tied with Giuliani- and the mass media plasters Giuliani stories all day long. They are like an extension to the Giuliani campaign- especially CNN. Let me ask you- have you ever heard the media say "Longshot Giuliani"? Or let's say they talk about Giuliani as infrequently as they talk about Paul- would they footnote such discussions with a "-not that he has any chance"?

I'm really happy with the results in NH and I laugh at the face of the media who has made such a concerted effort to black Ron Paul out of the minds of the American public yet he still managed to tie their darling candidate in NH and beat him in Iowa. Hahaha

Again, Giuliani has been the front runner in the national polls. Ron Paul has polled below 10% nationally, and up until last week Giuliani was polling at 25% nationally with a 5-6% point lead. However he is now In a near three way tie with him, Huckabee, and McCain all hovering between 19-22%. and Paul is still under 10.

Giuliani also leads in polls in places like Florida, California, New York, and New Jersey. So quit trying to compare Paul to Giuliani.

Which oughta make you think twice about those silly national polls, huh? I never liked the idea of shaping American opinion as a whole on the opinions of a few selected individuals who participated in those exclusives surveys.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: techs
I will look for the link and show how MSNBC's exit polls showed it Obama 40 percent to Clintons 34 percent.
Remember those numbers!

Here's the link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/

Why is there a difference between the exit polls and the actual votes?
Historically African-American candidates do worse in actual elections in predominately white areas than they do in polls. (Anywhere from 1-5 percentage points worse)
The only logical conclusion is that Americans are more willing to say they will vote for an African American than actually vote for an African American.

Which is why the polls were spot on in Iowa? please

 

[Corbett]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: lozina

Originally posted by: Corbett
I dont hate Paul. I actually like some of his ideas (very few I should say). However, his rabid supporters here are a whole different story. They claim if you dont support Pauls ideas you are just a person who wants to kill brown people, and thats just one of the many crazy things they believe.

So yes, i will admit I take an unhealthy ammount of enjoyment in seeing their latest savior do so poorly, but mostly because of the constant barrage of condescending posts from his supporters you see here every hour.

Funny, not a peep from Perry or PC Surgeon yet. LAWL!

Poorly? The guy tied with Giuliani- and the mass media plasters Giuliani stories all day long. They are like an extension to the Giuliani campaign- especially CNN. Let me ask you- have you ever heard the media say "Longshot Giuliani"? Or let's say they talk about Giuliani as infrequently as they talk about Paul- would they footnote such discussions with a "-not that he has any chance"?

I'm really happy with the results in NH and I laugh at the face of the media who has made such a concerted effort to black Ron Paul out of the minds of the American public yet he still managed to tie their darling candidate in NH and beat him in Iowa. Hahaha

Again, Giuliani has been the front runner in the national polls. Ron Paul has polled below 10% nationally, and up until last week Giuliani was polling at 25% nationally with a 5-6% point lead. However he is now In a near three way tie with him, Huckabee, and McCain all hovering between 19-22%. and Paul is still under 10.

Giuliani also leads in polls in places like Florida(by 6%), California(by 9%), New York(by over 30%), and New Jersey(by over 30%). So quit trying to compare Paul to Giuliani.

Exactly. New Hampshire was probably the ONLY state where Paul can pull 10%. It was their only hope.

Also, Giuliani didnt even campaign in NH and was never planning on taking it in the first place. Ron Paulbots spammed the crap out of that state and still came in 5th.

Also, stop lying about Paul tieing with Giuliani. He didnt. Paul only got 8%. Giuliani got 9% and he didnt even campaign in that state.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: lozina

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: lozina

Originally posted by: Corbett
I dont hate Paul. I actually like some of his ideas (very few I should say). However, his rabid supporters here are a whole different story. They claim if you dont support Pauls ideas you are just a person who wants to kill brown people, and thats just one of the many crazy things they believe.

So yes, i will admit I take an unhealthy ammount of enjoyment in seeing their latest savior do so poorly, but mostly because of the constant barrage of condescending posts from his supporters you see here every hour.

Funny, not a peep from Perry or PC Surgeon yet. LAWL!

Poorly? The guy tied with Giuliani- and the mass media plasters Giuliani stories all day long. They are like an extension to the Giuliani campaign- especially CNN. Let me ask you- have you ever heard the media say "Longshot Giuliani"? Or let's say they talk about Giuliani as infrequently as they talk about Paul- would they footnote such discussions with a "-not that he has any chance"?

I'm really happy with the results in NH and I laugh at the face of the media who has made such a concerted effort to black Ron Paul out of the minds of the American public yet he still managed to tie their darling candidate in NH and beat him in Iowa. Hahaha

Again, Giuliani has been the front runner in the national polls. Ron Paul has polled below 10% nationally, and up until last week Giuliani was polling at 25% nationally with a 5-6% point lead. However he is now In a near three way tie with him, Huckabee, and McCain all hovering between 19-22%. and Paul is still under 10.

Giuliani also leads in polls in places like Florida, California, New York, and New Jersey. So quit trying to compare Paul to Giuliani.

Which oughta make you think twice about those silly national polls, huh? I never liked the idea of shaping American opinion as a whole on the opinions of a few selected individuals who participated in those exclusives surveys.

Delusional is all you are. Giuliani has a 50/50 shot at winning Florida. He will win Cali, NY, and NJ. Putting him in the lead or close to the lead in delegates after Super Tuesday is over. Paul will be at maybe 15-20 Delegates after Super Tuesday, were as Giuliani will be at 330+.