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~~~The Official New Hampshire Primary Thread~~~

Personally I think a primary is a better gage than a caucus. And New Hampshire is traditionally the first in the nation test. But even then, no one ever says as Iowa or New Hampshire goes, so goes the nation.

The early primaries accomplish just two viable roles, as early showcases, they raise the questions that will later shape the other campaigns and weed out the candidates with no appeal.

We have already lost Dodd and Biden in Iowa, and lost Tommy Thompson, and Tom Tancredo earlier. Its difficult to see how Duncan Hunter can stay in.

Which set of candidates will be the next to drop? But traditionally one candidate on both sides comes into the political convention with better than 50% of the delegates and is therefore unstoppable.

And 2008 is the most explosive year since 1968 in MHO. 2008 is a minefield of volatility with many issues in a state of flux as the curtain starts to descend on the GWB years. The main danger for both parties is to select an unstoppable early front runner and then to have events break the other way leaving their certain nominee totally discredited by events. And front loading our primaries increases that danger.

In 1968 we saw the dems fall apart into an inter party civil war, in 2008, it may well be the GOP that falls into that inter party civil war. Its really going to depend on unknowable future events.
 
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
I can't believe there wasn't already a NH thread... 😕

I'll put the over/under for RP at 4%

Who wants in on this?
Click to expand...

4%? I got 20 on the over.
 
Are folks from New Hampshire called Hamsters?
Is New Hampshire the one with the V opening up or the V opening down?
 
Originally posted by: KarmaPolice
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
I can't believe there wasn't already a NH thread... 😕

I'll put the over/under for RP at 4%

Who wants in on this?
Click to expand...

I'll do the over...pm me
Click to expand...

i thnk just about anyone would take the over on that, im personally guessing 10%-15%

rp got 10% of the vote in a populist state, do you think that he will do dramatically worse in a more libertarian state?

my bet is that he finish in a close 4th this time, beating 9/11 and thompson.
 
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: KarmaPolice
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
I can't believe there wasn't already a NH thread... 😕

I'll put the over/under for RP at 4%

Who wants in on this?
Click to expand...

I'll do the over...pm me
Click to expand...

i thnk just about anyone would take the over on that, im personally guessing 10%-15%

rp got 10% of the vote in a populist state, do you think that he will do dramatically worse in a more libertarian state?

my bet is that he finish in a close 4th this time, beating 9/11 and thompson.
Click to expand...

Hopefully so.

I'm sure his anti-farm-subsidies line didn't go over too well with rural Iowa farmers, I'm thinking that's probably what kept him out of 4th place. If you look county by county, he did pretty well in the college towns / larger towns. It was in the extreme rural counties that he did not poll well.

 
I'm guessing people here don't remember the previous primary seasons. If Clinton loses this she's not going anywhere. She will be in it for the long haul, I guarantee you that.

I think sometimes the news cycle is too slow or something, as people tend to draw wild conclusions from relatively minor events... I think just because they want some conclusions to be made.
 
Funny, now, to see people disparaging Iowa. Like Hillary. One day Iowa is great, the next they are meaningless. Talk about transparent politicians.

I predict there will be a lot of New Hampshire haters coming very soon as well, as Dr. Paul and the like go down hard. Two in a row won't be meaningless, and it very well could be the end of the line for the Clinton Express.
 
Originally posted by: Pabster
Funny, now, to see people disparaging Iowa. Like Hillary. One day Iowa is great, the next they are meaningless. Talk about transparent politicians.

I predict there will be a lot of New Hampshire haters coming very soon as well, as Dr. Paul and the like go down hard. Two in a row won't be meaningless, and it very well could be the end of the line for the Clinton Express.
Click to expand...

who is your candidate of choice then? Thompson? Or are you just trolling (again)?
 
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: Pabster
Funny, now, to see people disparaging Iowa. Like Hillary. One day Iowa is great, the next they are meaningless. Talk about transparent politicians.

I predict there will be a lot of New Hampshire haters coming very soon as well, as Dr. Paul and the like go down hard. Two in a row won't be meaningless, and it very well could be the end of the line for the Clinton Express.
Click to expand...

who is your candidate of choice then? Thompson? Or are you just trolling (again)?
Click to expand...

You ask Pabster who his candidate is and you use word troll as if you are very familiar with that term...perhaps a Ron whats his name zealot??

Actually to be honest it is way too early to support any one candidate 100%......thye election process is young....
Let them weed themselves out a little then ask a question that for some the answer could change a few times.

Peace....
 
Originally posted by: ebaycj
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: KarmaPolice
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
I can't believe there wasn't already a NH thread... 😕

I'll put the over/under for RP at 4%

Who wants in on this?
Click to expand...

I'll do the over...pm me
Click to expand...

i thnk just about anyone would take the over on that, im personally guessing 10%-15%

rp got 10% of the vote in a populist state, do you think that he will do dramatically worse in a more libertarian state?

my bet is that he finish in a close 4th this time, beating 9/11 and thompson.
Click to expand...

Hopefully so.

I'm sure his anti-farm-subsidies line didn't go over too well with rural Iowa farmers, I'm thinking that's probably what kept him out of 4th place. If you look county by county, he did pretty well in the college towns / larger towns. It was in the extreme rural counties that he did not poll well.
Click to expand...

my God just listen to these excuses......rofl
 
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
who is your candidate of choice then? Thompson? Or are you just trolling (again)?
Click to expand...

There's only 2 candidates on my list.

Fred Thompson and Barack Obama.

As for trolling...where's your input?
 
Originally posted by: CellarDoor
Wow. Two polls from yesterday and today have Obama up 10 and 12 points over Clinton. If true, that's quite a bounce.
Click to expand...

I think it is quite true. Obama has been polling several points above Clinton for a few weeks now, and with his big win in Iowa, a boost going to NH is not a big surprise.

Looks to be a KO of Clinton. :thumbsup:
 
Originally posted by: Pabster
Originally posted by: CellarDoor
Wow. Two polls from yesterday and today have Obama up 10 and 12 points over Clinton. If true, that's quite a bounce.
Click to expand...

I think it is quite true. Obama has been polling several points above Clinton for a few weeks now, and with his big win in Iowa, a boost going to NH is not a big surprise.

Looks to be a KO of Clinton. :thumbsup:
Click to expand...

Uh what polls have you been looking at?

Hes been closing the gap for a couple of weeks, he has not overtaken her until now. Zogby still has Clinton a +4.

Everything is going to depend on todays debate between the Dems. If Obama out preforms her in the debate, shes done for sure in NH.
 
Originally posted by: Wreckem
Uh what polls have you been looking at?

Hes been closing the gap for a couple of weeks, he has not overtaken her until now. Zogby still has Clinton a +4.

Everything is going to depend on todays debate between the Dems. If Obama out preforms her in the debate, shes done for sure in NH.
Click to expand...

I mainly follow Rasmussen, and not just the poll itself. I like to look at the trends and charts behind the polls as well. Obama has been increasingly steadily for some time now, and after his Iowa victory there was a significant bump. With the Primary only 3 days away now, only a catastrophic mistake or meltdown could stop him. The debate will be important, but much more so for Hillary. If she's seen as bitter and calculating to the independents, it's all over.

EDIT: Rasmussen has his new numbers up. Obama 37%, Hillary 27%

McCain 31%, Romney 26%, Paul 14%, Huckabee 11%
 
I sure hope Obama continues to do well - Edwards as well. For the GOP, I'll guess that RP will get ~15%, but will also beat out Guiliani.

EDIT: From Obama's website
Bring Our Troops Home: Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda
Click to expand...
:thumbsup:
 
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