Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Brovane]

Because they weren't done with western weapons they weren't supposed to have. They were done with either western weapons they are supposed to have which the west has publicly stated as such, or with homebrew Ukrainian weapons that Ukraine described either before or after the fact. There's a reason they, too, have been so public with everything they're doing.

If we are that concerned about Russia going nuclear we might as well force Ukraine to bring this war to a close if we are going to be held hostage to nuclear threats.

 

[RnR_au]

Interesting report. No idea if its true. Its plausible though.



Source

 

[kage69]

So awesome. The Zaporozhian Cossacks Reply to... Vladimir Putin

 

[Jaskalas]

If we are that concerned about Russia going nuclear we might as well force Ukraine to bring this war to a close if we are going to be held hostage to nuclear threats.

The nuclear threat would be if Ukraine loses completely, and Poland has to step in to create a buffer zone for refugees. Russian and NATO troops openly shooting at each other.
Ukrainian collapse = direct war with NATO.

While it may seem unlikely for now, in a war of attrition, Democracies choosing to betray their allies are a real threat, and a game changer. Besides, it need not even occur this round of hostilities. That is why we must ensure Ukraine takes Crimea. They need a secure southern flank and a position of strength for a ceasefire to hold.

 

[Shamrock]

So awesome. The Zaporozhian Cossacks Reply to... Vladimir Putin

Reminds me of Warpigs:

Generals gathered in their masses
Just like witches at black masses
Evil minds that plot destruction
Sorcerer of death's construction

 

[RnR_au]

So awesome. The Zaporozhian Cossacks Reply to... Vladimir Putin

This is awesome! One of my favourite paintings and pieces of writings (even its a forgery)!

Correspondence between the Ottoman sultan and the Cossacks - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

If we are that concerned about Russia going nuclear we might as well force Ukraine to bring this war to a close if we are going to be held hostage to nuclear threats.

Held hostage? Seems like RU is doing a fine job of shitting itself. There's a big difference between prudent pacing and abject terror.

 

[KMFJD]

rather odd that they are seeing domestic fuel problems already

MSN

www.msn.com

Russia introduces restrictions on exports of gasoline, diesel fuel

According to the government decree, the restrictions are temporary and begin on September 21 "from the date of its official publication"

tass.com

 

[kage69]

Reminds me of Warpigs:

Generals gathered in their masses
Just like witches at black masses
Evil minds that plot destruction
Sorcerer of death's construction

Weird. I say that because Ukrainians resisting foreign invaders isn't evil at all.

When someone kicks in your door, tries to murder your family and neighbors, maybe kidnap your kids, you get to fight with a clear conscious. Doesn't get any more righteous than that really.

 

[Jaskalas]

rather odd that they are seeing domestic fuel problems already

MSN

www.msn.com

Russia introduces restrictions on exports of gasoline, diesel fuel

According to the government decree, the restrictions are temporary and begin on September 21 "from the date of its official publication"

tass.com

They spent a ton of it inside Ukraine. Both used and lost to interception. Ukraine has blown up a LOT of fuel tankers.
Plus, Russia has had a lot of smoking incidents since summer 2022. That may have reduced output at a time of increased demand.
Finally, between sanctions and haphazard mobilization, some portions of Russia's industry may be barely functional. Got to have parts and workers, not meat on the frontline.

 

[Jaskalas]

Regarding "meat" at the frontlines, Russian regular military is trying to copy Wagner's methods and use of manpower. Human wave attacks continue against Ukraine. Much less effective these days.

ISW: Soldiers claim Russian military command gave instructions to launch ‘ill-conceived, unsupported’ counterattacks​

 

[trenchfoot]

Regarding "meat" at the frontlines, Russian regular military is trying to copy Wagner's methods and use of manpower. Human wave attacks continue against Ukraine. Much less effective these days.

ISW: Soldiers claim Russian military command gave instructions to launch ‘ill-conceived, unsupported’ counterattacks​

Low morale is just as bad as having incompetent commanders that are unable to inspire their troops into believing that dying for their motherland is a just and righteous cause. Well it just so happens that the Russians are suffering from both maladies and the longer these factors are in play the worse things will get/have gotten.

Russian troops that have been repeatedly sent into the grinder will get the message that their fight is reminiscent of that time in the past where their own artillery made mincemeat of Lord Cardigan's cavalry charge and now it seems the tables have turned on them with these futile assaults against a well armed well motivated adversary that have every reason and then some to kill every one of them that dared to set foot on Ukrainian soil.

 

[Zor Prime]

ATACMS is a nice addition.

Hopefully it'll get things to a quicker resolution before Ukraine irreparably pisses off its neighbors:

"I ... want to tell President Zelenskyy never to insult Poles again, as he did recently during his speech at the U.N.," Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was quoted as saying by state-run news agency PAP.

I didn't expect to see this transpire: Ukraine and the USA to produce weapons together.

 

[KMFJD]

This is in adition to the admiral ? that's some impressive timing/co-ordination

 

[K1052]

Wild that they were still holding high level meetings in their regular HQ after Ukraine smoked those ships in dry dock practically next door.

Surely there is a convenient command bunker.

 

[kage69]

Yeah, that's up there with using the basement of a crowded barracks as an ammo depot.

I'm chalking it up to vodka and misery.

 

[K1052]

In somewhat related news Vietnam wants to buy F-16s for the People's Air Force. They currently operate a fleet of all Russian jets.

Biden aides in talks with Vietnam for arms deal that could irk China​

The Biden administration is in talks with Vietnam over an agreement for the largest arms transfer in history between the ex-Cold War adversaries, according to two people familiar with a deal that could irk China and sideline Russia.

A package, which could come together within the next year, could consummate the newly upgraded partnership between Washington and Hanoi with the sale of a fleet of American F-16 fighter jets as the Southeast Asian nation faces tensions with Beijing in the disputed South China Sea, one of the people said.

 

[Ajay]

The UAF are having many tactical successes in the south. Moving the LOC is still slow, unfortunately. There have been sighting of armor being able use their mobility as Russian defensive lines (mines, etc) are dismantled and bypassed. Can't wait for even limited numbers of ATACMS and F16 to come into the battle space. Musing about recently, I wish we could have subbed the F-16s with F-15s, as they are simply beasts as Fighter/bombers. There are some very fine weapons that can be mounted on F16s with no need to jerry rig them (SLAM-ER for instance). Can't find the article I read about this, but here's some info from ISW:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705409346144735683

 

[KMFJD]

Good point, barrel count is probably more relevant at this point than artillery systems. Doesn't matter if you've got a billion shells, if you only have 100k shells worth of service life left in your barrel arsenal. We've already seen pics of banana peeled barrels so we know they're not doing routine swaps...

A quick loop back into the Russian artillery massacre

US recommends a barrel change out after 2500 rounds on the m777, let's say the Russians change them out at around 3000(?) , at their estimated 20,000 rounds a day that 6-7 barrels a day, that's over 2000 barrels a year , now the barrels themselves probably aren't that hard to create but the tools that create them are (and provided mainly by the west)

last i saw they've lost over 6200 artillery pieces since they started this

 

[K1052]

A quick loop back into the Russian artillery massacre

US recommends a barrel change out after 2500 rounds on the m777, let's say the Russians change them out at around 3000(?) , at their estimated 20,000 rounds a day that 6-7 barrels a day, that's over 2000 barrels a year , now the barrels themselves probably aren't that hard to create but the tools that create them are (and provided mainly by the west)

last i saw they've lost over 6200 artillery pieces since they started this
View attachment 86145

There was some recent analysis of Russian storage depots that shows they'd stripped the barrels from almost every piece in the yards.

Large forgings are a PITA and I doubt that their defense industry has adopted the advances in large lathes that can dramatically cut production times. IIRC a number of the companies that make this stuff had been in financial difficulties for many years due to low demand so major investments in the physical plants are unlikely.

 

[KMFJD]

It could have been over so easy and without so much bloodshed if only Putin would have been man enough to fight Musk man to man

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705596794682663184

 

[GodisanAtheist]

We should bring back the Roman tradition of Spoila Optima.

Would stop a lot of wars from starting and bring a lot of wars to a hasty close.

 

[Perknose]

It could have been over so easy and without so much bloodshed if only Putin would have been man enough to fight Musk man to man

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705596794682663184

Ok, my head is wildly gyrating like an off center top in this new world where actual events exceed anyone's ability to parody them . . . did Musk himself really tweet that?

 

[Bitek]

The hell is musk doing? Couldn't get Zuck to fight, now he wants Putin?

Ramblings of a small man

 

[trenchfoot]

The hell is musk doing? Couldn't get Zuck to fight, now he wants Putin?

Ramblings of a small man

His tiny shrinking shlong is telling his inflated ego that it must be inflated even more by an order of increasing magnitude in order to maintain equilibrium between the two.