Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Steltek

Diamond Member
Mar 29, 2001
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Putin would obviously win such a dual - he'd have a dozen snippers one to hit each finger of musk and the other two would take out his eyes ;)

Are you sure? Clumsy as he is, I think Musk would simply have suffered an accidental but fatal gravitational interaction outside his hotel window in Moscow.

I mean, you can't discount it, given that Russian gravity outside Russian hotel windows is apparently a significant statistical cause of death for the rich and powerful there....
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,692
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Hum. So the US is at war with a City; very unusual for a country to only go after a single city but i suppose it is possible. Russia should feel fortunate that it is only one city the US is at war....
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,142
36,003
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Saddam didn't accept Bush Jr.'s challenge to a duel. Things could be resolved so much faster.

AWOL Dubya? Fight? You're funny, and I'd like some of what you're smoking in edible form.

Saddam was more into killing people who were handcuffed and on their knees, pleading for their lives. Until his arms got tired anyway. I don't think dueling was really his thing.

Elon challenging a 70 year old man with multiple cancers, heh, probably still get his ass beat. Putin was a competent judoka, might still be in better shape than Elon too, who knows. I don't think Elon understands he's not funny.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,308
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AWOL Dubya? Fight? You're funny, and I'd like some of what you're smoking in edible form.

Saddam was more into killing people who were handcuffed and on their knees, pleading for their lives. Until his arms got tired anyway. I don't think dueling was really his thing.

Elon challenging a 70 year old man with multiple cancers, heh, probably still get his ass beat. Putin was a competent judoka, might still be in better shape than Elon too, who knows. I don't think Elon understands he's not funny.

Been reading Isaacson biography and in the white South African culture of the 70's and 80's, fighting was fairly common to settle arguments. In the early days of Zip2, Elon and Kimbal Musk would get into a argument and things would quickly escalate into a physical altercation. Seems like Musk still has that habit. In Russia it still might be the same thing.
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Reports says that Russia has new drones available that are much harder to jam. They have them available in large numbers and are using them liberally on Ukrainian infantry.

But the Ukrainians have also made good gains in the Tokmak. The red line is a discovered supply road used by the Russians to quickly shift resources depending on where the Ukrainians are pushing. This road has been cut apparently.

1695590913854.png

David D in a decent twitter thread reckons that the rear defensive lines are increasingly becoming empty as troops are getting pulled North to hold back the Ukrainians. He likens the situation as the Siegfried Line in WWII. He also believes that the Russians don't have a mobile reserve force - everything has been committed.

1695592976358.png
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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Reports says that Russia has new drones available that are much harder to jam. They have them available in large numbers and are using them liberally on Ukrainian infantry.

But the Ukrainians have also made good gains in the Tokmak. The red line is a discovered supply road used by the Russians to quickly shift resources depending on where the Ukrainians are pushing. This road has been cut apparently.



David D in a decent twitter thread reckons that the rear defensive lines are increasingly becoming empty as troops are getting pulled North to hold back the Ukrainians. He likens the situation as the Siegfried Line in WWII. He also believes that the Russians don't have a mobile reserve force - everything has been committed.
My concern at this point is what comes first, the Ukraine breakthrough or the autumn rains?
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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My concern at this point is what comes first, the Ukraine breakthrough or the autumn rains?
There was a Ukrainian General (I think it was a General) that offered an opinion on that - he said that early rains wouldn't matter much since they are using mainly infantry based attacks atm.

It was posted earlier in the thread that Ukraine only needs to advance 10km or so in the Tokmak direction. Then their artillery will be able to cover all the southern supply routes in the Kherson area. And that should be game over for this theater... especially leading into winter.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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There was a Ukrainian General (I think it was a General) that offered an opinion on that - he said that early rains wouldn't matter much since they are using mainly infantry based attacks atm.

It was posted earlier in the thread that Ukraine only needs to advance 10km or so in the Tokmak direction. Then their artillery will be able to cover all the southern supply routes in the Kherson area. And that should be game over for this theater... especially leading into winter.

I want to see a breakthrough and armor driving down to the Sea of Azov and a complete cutoff of the land bridge to Crimea. Then Ukraine takes out Kerch straight bridge making Russia's position in Crimea incredible difficult.
 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,647
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There was a Ukrainian General (I think it was a General) that offered an opinion on that - he said that early rains wouldn't matter much since they are using mainly infantry based attacks atm.
..
ISW had a similar analysis, indicating Ukrainian intent and capability to extend the counter offensive through the winter to maintain momentum, and possible to do since attacking forces are infantry and less hampered by poor weather.
 

RnR_au

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Jun 6, 2021
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I want to see a breakthrough and armor driving down to the Sea of Azov and a complete cutoff of the land bridge to Crimea. Then Ukraine takes out Kerch straight bridge making Russia's position in Crimea incredible difficult.
I would have thought that leaving a sliver of a transport corridor back to Russia would be best for all the Russian civilians to escape on. Maybe an armada of ferries would be enough, but I can just see Putin closing the gates anyways and telling the civilians to fight for every square meter of Crimean land.
 
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Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
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I would have thought that leaving a sliver of a transport corridor back to Russia would be best for all the Russian civilians to escape on. Maybe an armada of ferries would be enough, but I can just see Putin closing the gates anyways and telling the civilians to fight for every square meter of Crimean land.
F them. Let the fuckers try a Dunkirk.
 

RnR_au

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Jun 6, 2021
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"If you're not a part of the solution, there's good money to be made in prolonging the problem."

Kadyrov was one of the first and most successful of Russia's 'conflict entrepreneurs,' able to monetise the threat or actuality of war. The invasion of Ukraine is creating a whole slew of new conflict entrepreneurs, who will represent not just a constituency with an interest in continued conflict, but also may be being nurtured as the state looks to find a new support base.

From the podcast 'In Moscow's Shadows' - https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/13646844

Haven't listened to it yet, but the idea is a little scary. There could be a substantial faction inside Russia that wants this war to continue as long as possible.