Apple isn't using N3 until 2024. So what N3 capacity are you referring to when you say any of this?
2023 Macs and then the 2023 iPhone.
Apple isn't using N3 until 2024. So what N3 capacity are you referring to when you say any of this?
What makes you think either will be N3? They're skipping N3 in 2022 because of poor power/perf and density shrink relative to cost increase, especially compared to N4P. N3E is only going to be ready at the end of 2023/beginning of 2024, and so misses the production cycle for 2023 iPhone.2023 Macs and then the 2023 iPhone.
What makes you think either will be N3?
No ****?They've been first at TSMC for awhile now. If N3 is really that mediocre then it makes zero sense that Intel would want it too, especially if they are dumb enough to use it for the IGP.
No ****?
The Meteor Lake rumour was obviously a load of bollocks right from the beginning. It's all Intel 4.
What makes you think either will be N3? They're skipping N3 in 2022 because of poor power/perf and density shrink relative to cost increase, especially compared to N4P. N3E is only going to be ready at the end of 2023/beginning of 2024, and so misses the production cycle for 2023 iPhone.
That article's sole source is this thread. Do we have any corroboration on that info?
We'll have to see I guess. Frankly speaking the base N3 is a dud, and I don't see why it sounds so strange that it might be skipped over by most companies. I'm actually hoping it is in favour of N3E and/or N4P. The latter gets you the same power/perf improvement of N3 at lower clocks, gives you an improvement at higher clocks over N5/N4 and does so at lower cost than N3.Apple not using N3 in 2022 is known for a while but not in 2023 also? So noone is going to be using N3 is 2023 for the reason above? I find it hard to believe tbh lol.
N3 is arriving at least 3-4 months too late for the 2022 iPhone, and Apple had to know that already by Jan 2020 in order to target N4 for the A16 design. N4P was added later and won't be available until after N3. TSMC expects the first products based on N4P to tape out by the second half of 2022—which wouldn't even be in time for the 2023 iPhone. In terms of performance, TSMC's claims put N4P in the same range as N3 but at slightly higher power. Density on the other hand is 1.6x greater with N3. I don't think Apple is going to pass on that, at which point they're never going back. So I still say N3 for 2023 A-series and maybe N4P for M-series.What makes you think either will be N3? They're skipping N3 in 2022 because of poor power/perf and density shrink relative to cost increase, especially compared to N4P. N3E is only going to be ready at the end of 2023/beginning of 2024, and so misses the production cycle for 2023 iPhone.
The original source is a reddit poster called Moore's Law Is not Dead. Some of the info seems to come from the channel Moore's Law Is Dead, he talked a bit about this leak in his videos. He basically confirmed the code names, although some details/features are wrongly worded he said.
So the original sources, MLID and AdoredTV, were allegedly incorrectly summarized by mooreslawisnotdead in a reddit comment shortly before that account was deleted. Curmudgeon666 quoted the text of that comment and linked to the subsequent discussion and reporting around it here in this thread, in what remain that user's only two posts on this forum. Right, seems totally legit.The original source is a reddit poster called Moore's Law Is not Dead. Some of the info seems to come from the channel Moore's Law Is Dead, he talked a bit about this leak in his videos. He basically confirmed the code names, although some details/features are wrongly worded he said.
Yes, exactly.The article said it wasn't by him, just an anonymous forum poster.
The article said it wasn't by him, just an anonymous forum poster.
Yes, exactly.
There's a "not" in the name
So the original sources, MLID and AdoredTV, were allegedly incorrectly summarized by mooreslawisnotdead in a reddit comment shortly before that account was deleted. Curmudgeon666 quoted the text of that comment and linked to the subsequent discussion and reporting around it here in this thread, in what remain that user's only two posts on this forum. Right, seems totally legit.
The takeaway I got from the videos you linked to is that Arrow Lake is a mobile only / P Series version of Meteor Lake with an extra GPU tile in order to offer customers something a bit closer to Apple's IGP offerings. Their claim of up to 320 EUs would point to 2x 128 EU GPU tiles plus 64 EUs in the SoC tile. So now I'm leaning in that direction. Unless it's 2x 192 EU tiles with 64 EUs disabled, which is also a possibility, I guess.
They'll have 10% of the world's installed EUV litho equipment sitting around mostly idle at that point, so they could start there.Intel still needs to refresh the desktop with something new in 2023. If it's not Arrow Lake then it needs to be something else, even if it's just a refresh/rebrand of Raptor Lake.
The biggest question would be what node it would be, and if it's Intel 4, where Intel would get the EUV equipment to do so.
Is that your analysis based on what customers are saying about their test wafers / early risk starts? Or are you just spouting utter nonsense based on zero verifiable evidence?We'll have to see I guess. Frankly speaking the base N3 is a dud, and I don't see why it sounds so strange that it might be skipped over by most companies. I'm actually hoping it is in favour of N3E and/or N4P. The latter gets you the same power/perf improvement of N3 at lower clocks, gives you an improvement at higher clocks over N5/N4 and does so at lower cost than N3.
Honestly, what makes you think there's a single shred of accurate information in those linked sources?A version with 320 EUs must be for mobile of course but Arrow Lake is coming for desktop as well:
No ****?
The Meteor Lake rumour was obviously a load of bollocks right from the beginning. It's all Intel 4.
No clue about Arrow Lake, but my understanding is that's supposed to be a late 2023/2024 product, isn't it?
Well no, the last I heard, Intel is using N3, but only to supplement their Intel 4 capacity. Apple not using N3 at all is news to me. From what I understand, next year will feature a silicon refresh based on N4, then the following year on N3.Apple not using N3 in 2022 is known for a while but not in 2023 also? So noone is going to be using N3 in 2023 for the reason above? I find it hard to believe tbh lol.
The original source is a reddit poster called Moore's Law Is not Dead. Some of the info seems to come from the channel Moore's Law Is Dead, he talked a bit about this leak in his videos. He basically confirmed the code names, although some details/features are wrongly worded he said.
They'll have 10% of the world's installed EUV litho equipment sitting around mostly idle at that point, so they could start there.
TSMC has 3x the fab capacity of Intel. Intel will never be able to buy 100% of TSMC's capacity at the leading edge because they have neither the money nor the customers for that much silicon.
Intel still needs to refresh the desktop with something new in 2023. If it's not Arrow Lake then it needs to be something else, even if it's just a refresh/rebrand of Raptor Lake.
The biggest question would be what node it would be, and if it's Intel 4, where Intel would get the EUV equipment to do so.
That report never once addresses whether any of TSMC's customers were underinvesting in EUV or would be more significantly impacted by supply constraints on EUV lithography equipment. TSMC may have half of all EUV systems installed to date, but that's only because they have a lot more processes using EUV doing a lot more volume than anyone else.
Is that your analysis based on what customers are saying about their test wafers / early risk starts? Or are you just spouting utter nonsense based on zero verifiable evidence?
Honestly, what makes you think there's a single shred of accurate information in those linked sources?
Adored, MLID, and other youtubers aren't "sources". They are very poor versions of "middle-men". They take existing free content and monetize it by scouring the internet (mostly twitter) and attempting to find rumors that haven't been blasted all over. If they can't link things together, they tend to make things up. I don't believe MLID or Adored have ever been the first, or only folks to leak anything, and I know they have gotten more things wrong than right. I am not familiar with that mentioned "Moore's law is not Dead" character, but if you could link us to his profile so we can read his past posts/comments (including his deleted ones, since both public and private caches exist for reddit) it would be much appreciated.
I don't trust your word for it because you're not citing any actual numbers or public statements from TSMC, their customers, or anyone familiar with the actual performance of the node. Furthermore, what you're saying directly contradicts any credible sources that I've come across. Let's start with Anandtech's own synopsis: https://www.anandtech.com/show/16639/tsmc-update-2nm-in-development-3nm-4nm-on-track-for-2022Seeing as you don't trust my word for it, apply a bit of common sense to what TSMC have publicly stated. Frankly it doesn't matter what I say in response here, does it?
Instead at TSMC's claims for wafer processing time, look at the PPA figures provided. N5 is the first instance of the increase in wafer cost drastically outstripping the increase in transistor density, N3 suffers from even worse logic, SRAM and analog shrinks than N5 had, and an even larger increase to wafer processing time.
With that you should already be able to tell that it's a dud of a node. Forget anything else I claim for now, use a bit of common sense will you?
Their 7nm cost per wafer is significantly overvalued.I don't trust your word for it because you're not citing any actual numbers or public statements from TSMC, their customers, or anyone familiar with the actual performance of the node. Furthermore, what you're saying directly contradicts any credible sources that I've come across. Let's start with Anandtech's own synopsis: https://www.anandtech.com/show/16639/tsmc-update-2nm-in-development-3nm-4nm-on-track-for-2022
The only rational takeaway from that report is that when TSMC N3 reaches HVM, it will be the most advanced manufacturing process available, offering the highest transistor density, highest performance, and lowest power of any node past or present. Unless you expect the finished wafer cost to rise more than 70% over N5, then N3 will also offer the lowest transistor cost. In fact, it will almost certainly provide the lowest transistor cost in history. Are these gains less than what we might have expected historically? Absolutely—Moore's Law is running head first into the hard reality of physics.
Even if you go by the wafer costs from the CSET paper, which are almost certainly high of the mark, the increase in wafer price for N5 still did not exceed the increase in transistor density over N7. Transistor prices still went down even if they didn't decrease as much as Moore's Law would have predicted. Even as the rate of progress slows down, you're still making progress.
As for cycle times, I haven't seen anything that gives me a solid compare between nodes. The basic rule of thumb is that even though EUV steps take longer than DUV, every time you can replace a multi-patterned DUV layer with a single EUV layer, you reduce the number of steps and masks, which in turn reduces both cycle times and cost. Every time you have to add additional multi-patterning steps, you increase the number of masks, cycle times, and cost. I think N3 increases both the number of EUV layers and use of multi-patterning over N5, so we should expect longer cycle times. There's no way TSMC's wafer price will increase by 70% over N5 though, and they stuck with FinFET for N3 which should help yields and keep design costs somewhat in check.