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I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

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nOOky

Golden Member
Aug 17, 2004
1,700
444
136
Sweet Baby Jesus the simple fact that Trump still even has a chance is frightening. This should be far and away a landslide. The fact that many of us will be nervous until the moment Trump walks out of the white house to go golfing in January is stressful. I don't even care if Kamala Harris has deputies there waiting to handcuff him, I just want him out period. The waiting sux lol.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,572
5,996
136
It is reflected. The one place it might not be would be in the likely voter screens and in that case you would see a large LV/RV voter split. We don't though.
Polls which show RV and LV within the same sample are just as likely to have Biden doing better by a point with LV's than RV's. IIRC that is atypical as in the past the majority of polls show R's doing better with LV than RV. I'm wondering if that means we're looking at stronger than usual expected turnout for dems.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
29,327
2,851
126
You keep saying this, but I really don't see it. There's basically zero percent chance of that happening without Biden winding up dead or comatose, and there's no particular reason to think that that's likely.
Let's hope we get the chance to argue whether a President Biden will or won't. Should prove a fun distraction.
 

ecogen

Golden Member
Dec 24, 2016
1,123
1,098
106
Polls which show RV and LV within the same sample are just as likely to have Biden doing better by a point with LV's than RV's. IIRC that is atypical as in the past the majority of polls show R's doing better with LV than RV. I'm wondering if that means we're looking at stronger than usual expected turnout for dems.
A big factor seems to be Biden doing very well with older voters which tend to be much more reliable when it comes to turnout.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
14,745
3,196
136
A big factor seems to be Biden doing very well with older voters which tend to be much more reliable when it comes to turnout.
Trump keeps running ads showing Joe in a wheel chair drooling, the Dems will clean up the senior vote.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
136
Sweet Baby Jesus the simple fact that Trump still even has a chance is frightening. This should be far and away a landslide. The fact that many of us will be nervous until the moment Trump walks out of the white house to go golfing in January is stressful. I don't even care if Kamala Harris has deputies there waiting to handcuff him, I just want him out period. The waiting sux lol.
At this point the probability of this being the largest landslide in history against an incumbent are probably at least as likely as a Trump win.
 

Roger Wilco

Senior member
Mar 20, 2017
517
221
86
Harris' travel has been halted after her communications director tested positive along with a flight crew member.

It doesn't seem like Harris had any exposure, however, and she tested negative on a PCR test yesterday.

From CNN -

"The two people were with Harris on a flight on October 8, the day after her debate with Vice President Mike Pence.
"During the flight, Senator Harris wore an N95 mask, as did both individuals. She was not within 6 feet for more than 15 minutes with either of them," O'Malley Dillon said."

I think she's in the clear, but fuck man, this virus is everywhere.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
34,607
7,749
136
Harris' travel has been halted after her communications director tested positive along with a flight crew member.

It doesn't seem like Harris had any exposure, however, and she tested negative on a PCR test yesterday.

From CNN -

"The two people were with Harris on a flight on October 8, the day after her debate with Vice President Mike Pence.
"During the flight, Senator Harris wore an N95 mask, as did both individuals. She was not within 6 feet for more than 15 minutes with either of them," O'Malley Dillon said."

I think she's in the clear, but fuck man, this virus is everywhere.
Notably the campaign didn't try to hide this and announced it themselves as well as notifying all press who might have had contact.

Acting responsibly is not only smart it is good politics.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
At this point the probability of this being the largest landslide in history against an incumbent are probably at least as likely as a Trump win.
I'll agree with that. Democrats everywhere are fired up to kick Trump's ass, rightfully so.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
15,721
3,318
136
Heard a story that in Ohio and maybe PA, that there are more republican first time voters registered than democrats by 2-1. That probably isn't reflected in the polls.

Correction: Just heard it again, the states are FL, PA, and NC. New registrations by party are a 2-1 advantage for Trump. These are all states Trump won by less than 5%.
Quoting for the correction.
 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
106
Let's hope we get the chance to argue whether a President Biden will or won't. Should prove a fun distraction.
If he gets elected, I think Biden will serve his full term. The most important thing he has to do is select competent and reasonable people to his cabinet and other positions and let them do the day to day details of running the government. So I am not concerned about his health/mental acuity except in the context of how it affects his election chances.

And, yes, I know Trump is batshit crazy, but that is in a different context (like a cult leader) that somehow makes him appealing to his base and maybe even a few undecideds that feel dis-enfranchised.
 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
106
Sweet Baby Jesus the simple fact that Trump still even has a chance is frightening. This should be far and away a landslide. The fact that many of us will be nervous until the moment Trump walks out of the white house to go golfing in January is stressful. I don't even care if Kamala Harris has deputies there waiting to handcuff him, I just want him out period. The waiting sux lol.
So much this.
 
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Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
If he gets elected, I think Biden will serve his full term. The most important thing he has to do is select competent and reasonable people to his cabinet and other positions and let them do the day to day details of running the government. So I am not concerned about his health/mental acuity except in the context of how it affects his election chances.

And, yes, I know Trump is batshit crazy, but that is in a different context (like a cult leader) that somehow makes him appealing to his base and maybe even a few undecideds that feel dis-enfranchised.
Please. Trump's current efforts are horrifying. The crazy bastard just rallied in Iowa, drawing a crowd of 10K truly delusional fans so he could bask in their adulation. He's utterly depraved. Go to 5:50-

 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
106
Please. Trump's current efforts are horrifying. The crazy bastard just rallied in Iowa, drawing a crowd of 10K truly delusional fans so he could bask in their adulation. He's utterly depraved. Go to 5:50-

That is just what I am saying. Just goes to reinforce the point that his craziness just makes him all the more appealing to his base.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
That is just what I am saying. Just goes to reinforce the point that his craziness just makes him all the more appealing to his base.
There aren't enough of them to win the election, I figure, but more than enough to make the pandemic a lot worse than it needs to be.
 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
106
Do you think Obama 2008 was a landslide? If so, Biden's current polling average puts him at a much larger victory than that.
What I am saying is that Biden should be leading by 25 or 30 points in the polls, based on Trump's craziness, and even more so his recent attempts to undermine the democratic process.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
136
Of course the Biden campaign is going to say it’s close - if everyone thinks it’s in the bag then maybe people don’t vote. They would be insane to say ‘we are way ahead, we’ve got this!’

As of now Biden’s lead in the tipping point state is now greater than the largest polling error ever recorded in a presidential race. He’s looking very strong.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
14,241
6,867
146
Of course the Biden campaign is going to say it’s close - if everyone thinks it’s in the bag then maybe people don’t vote. They would be insane to say ‘we are way ahead, we’ve got this!’

As of now Biden’s lead in the tipping point state is now greater than the largest polling error ever recorded in a presidential race. He’s looking very strong.
Right!

but I would still argue that this election needs historically large margins of victory so that attempting legal and illegal shenanigans are moot.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
Of course the Biden campaign is going to say it’s close - if everyone thinks it’s in the bag then maybe people don’t vote. They would be insane to say ‘we are way ahead, we’ve got this!’

As of now Biden’s lead in the tipping point state is now greater than the largest polling error ever recorded in a presidential race. He’s looking very strong.
It also puts people in the right headspace to deal with the unlikely prospect of losing honestly. It lends legitimacy to the process as well.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
16,484
2,061
126
Sweet Baby Jesus the simple fact that Trump still even has a chance is frightening. This should be far and away a landslide. The fact that many of us will be nervous until the moment Trump walks out of the white house to go golfing in January is stressful. I don't even care if Kamala Harris has deputies there waiting to handcuff him, I just want him out period. The waiting sux lol.
I don't think there is anything to sweat about, it looks like Joe has it locked up. It's all over but the (Trump) crying.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
I don't think there is anything to sweat about, it looks like Joe has it locked up. It's all over but the (Trump) crying.
Well, and all the potential superspreader rallies Trump can arrange. And then whatever he & the GOP can accomplish during the lame duck period to leave the new Admin as fucked as possible. It's what passes for patriotism on the right.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
16,484
2,061
126
Well, and all the potential superspreader rallies Trump can arrange. And then whatever he & the GOP can accomplish during the lame duck period to leave the new Admin as fucked as possible. It's what passes for patriotism on the right.
They're all adults, if they choose to play a stupid game they'll sure as hell win a stupid prize. Who am I to deny them the opportunity?
As far as leaving a mess goes, I'm sure it won't be something Joe can't handle.
 

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