I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[fskimospy]

I would be interested to know what any of the people sure Biden was doomed think now. Not as a trash talking exercise - as a genuine question.

 

[woolfe9998]

I would be interested to know what any of the people sure Biden was doomed think now. Not as a trash talking exercise - as a genuine question.

I saw a poll some 2 months ago which said nearly half of democrats thought Trump would likely win the election. In spite of a then 8-9 point polling lead for Biden.

Some democrats are trying to manage their own expectations so they aren't devastated should Trump win, and are happily surprised if he loses. They still haven't gotten over the trauma of 2016.

 

[Commodus]

I would be interested to know what any of the people sure Biden was doomed think now. Not as a trash talking exercise - as a genuine question.

Sadly, some of those are Trump backers who'll be certain of a win right up to the final tally (and for some, even if Trump loses). As for the moderates or pessimistic Dems? I suspect they'll be justifiably cautious, but also aware that Biden is building a momentum that might be difficult for Trump to stop.

 

[Jaskalas]

I would be interested to know what any of the people sure Biden was doomed think now. Not as a trash talking exercise - as a genuine question.

Biden did alright in the one debate.
But he is far too old to be President.
Only reason he is acceptable is due to the other guy.

Republicans are absolutely horrid in policy, and of personality - but somehow Democrats aren't nearly as far ahead on those merits as they should be. As for the election - who the !@#$ knows anymore. Polls did not serve anyone last time - they sure as hell won't serve us this time. Now with COVID and a bunch of Democrats being dumb enough to vote by mail - there is huge risk of ballot rejection when we need every vote to count. It's not over til it is over. And I cannot imagine that'll be on Nov 3rd like it should be.

 

[MrSquished]

Biden did alright in the one debate.
But he is far too old to be President.
Only reason he is acceptable is due to the other guy.

Republicans are absolutely horrid in policy, and of personality - but somehow Democrats aren't nearly as far ahead on those merits as they should be. As for the election - who the !@#$ knows anymore. Polls did not serve anyone last time - they sure as hell won't serve us this time. Now with COVID and a bunch of Democrats being dumb enough to vote by mail - there is huge risk of ballot rejection when we need every vote to count. It's not over til it is over. And I cannot imagine that'll be on Nov 3rd like it should be.

Biden wasn't even in my top 5 but I've been warming up to him the last month. I wanted Warren first, then Mayor Pete, Cory Booker, Yang, probably Harris and maybe even Klobuchar over Biden, although I think she was too centrist. Probably if I looked into Inslee or another candidate I'd probably have leaned them over Biden too. But hell, next to Trump Biden has been looking like a freshly sprouted daisy next to a pile of stinking shit with flies buzzing about it.

Currently polls are too close in Ohio, Pennsyltucky and Florida. It could go either way and will probably end up in court.

I can't stand the hicks in Ohio and Pennsyltucky at all. So fucking dumb. I was listening to NPR today and they were talking to a Trump voter in big time Trump country. They couldn't fathom Trump not winning cause of all the Trump signs in their area. Then another guy said Trump was a great businessman, he came back from bankruptcy after bankruptcy even richer than before. They don't stop to think driving America to bankruptcy over and over again might be a bad idea. They are bereft of critical thinking skills.

 

[Mai72]

Is Joe really suffering from dementia? I don't typically watch Fox News, but they make a compelling point. That Joe might not be fit (mentally) to run our country.

 

[nickqt]

I would be interested to know what any of the people sure Biden was doomed think now. Not as a trash talking exercise - as a genuine question.

This election has been and will remain a toss-up. Relying on any poll is a mistake, because as far as I know, polls are never counted in the vote count.

The reason I will consider it to be a toss-up until the Electoral College has their votes tallied is because of multiple reasons. One, mail-in ballots are going to be thrown into the garbage because rules aren't followed in how they were completed, and this is not debatable. This means that there are going to be less votes counted than cast. Full stop. Two, there are going to be people who say they are voting for Zombie Washington/Space Jesus ticket, who will of course vote for Trump in the privacy of the poll booth. And three, in case you haven't noticed, Donald Trump is the one already sitting in the White House, and the current Attorney General has made clear that he's Trump's attorney, not ours. So expecting those two traitors to not do everything in their power to throw the election is laughably fucking ignorant.

When Biden wins 300+ EC votes, has those EC votes officially tallied, and Trump no longer has the nuclear codes, then I'll happily say that I was paranoid.

 

[MrSquished]

Is Joe really suffering from dementia? I don't typically watch Fox News, but they make a compelling point. That Joe might not be fit (mentally) to run our country.

Dude. Get over it. Tell the Trumphumpers in your life to go fuck themselves. Even Tucker admitted it was a mistake to go after Biden's mental acuity after the debate:

https://news.yahoo.com/video/tucker-carlson-says-biden-did-044855879.html?ncid=eda_yahoonewsv_megkhcfaz8i&ncck=9714

"Tucker Carlson joined many of his colleagues in the media Wednesday night when he panned the chaotic first presidential debate the night before. Carlson agreed that it was out of control and not good for the country. But, while for so many the biggest story was that the president refused to condemn white supremacists, Carlson had a different takeaway. Carlson said that he and others in conservative media had made a mistake by spending so much time questioning Biden’s mental state, and admitted that Biden had answered questions more precisely than he’d expected. "

 

[K1052]

Is Joe really suffering from dementia? I don't typically watch Fox News, but they make a compelling point. That Joe might not be fit (mentally) to run our country.

A supercut of Trump fucking up would last between now and the election. No Biden does not have dementia. Yes he stumbles because of his stutter and has gaffes (only for decades).

 

[fskimospy]

I saw a poll some 2 months ago which said nearly half of democrats thought Trump would likely win the election. In spite of a then 8-9 point polling lead for Biden.

Some democrats are trying to manage their own expectations so they aren't devastated should Trump win, and are happily surprised if he loses. They still haven't gotten over the trauma of 2016.

Yes, I think this drives most of it. If Trump had an identical lead you would not see an equivalent phenomenon. He would be viewed as the overwhelming favorite, which would be accurate.

 

[MrSquished]

This election has been and will remain a toss-up. Relying on any poll is a mistake, because as far as I know, polls are never counted in the vote count.

The reason I will consider it to be a toss-up until the Electoral College has their votes tallied is because of multiple reasons. One, mail-in ballots are going to be thrown into the garbage because rules aren't followed in how they were completed, and this is not debatable. This means that there are going to be less votes counted than cast. Full stop. Two, there are going to be people who say they are voting for Zombie Washington/Space Jesus ticket, who will of course vote for Trump in the privacy of the poll booth. And three, in case you haven't noticed, Donald Trump is the one already sitting in the White House, and the current Attorney General has made clear that he's Trump's attorney, not ours. So expecting those two traitors to not do everything in their power to throw the election is laughably fucking ignorant.

When Biden wins 300+ EC votes, has those EC votes officially tallied, and Trump no longer has the nuclear codes, then I'll happily say that I was paranoid.

It's a toss up right now and it's fucking frightening. Biden will win by millions more than Hilary did even. It's all down to more evolved people turning out in states like PA and OH and FL

 

[fskimospy]

This election has been and will remain a toss-up. Relying on any poll is a mistake, because as far as I know, polls are never counted in the vote count.

This is nonsense. A toss-up indicates both results are equally likely and that’s just not true. As for the polls not being counted that’s true, however a cursory look at the history of polling shows it is reasonably accurate. Ignoring it is ridiculous.

If the idea is that we should not be complacent I agree, but the idea that we can’t know anything about the race is absurd.

The reason I will consider it to be a toss-up until the Electoral College has their votes tallied is because of multiple reasons. One, mail-in ballots are going to be thrown into the garbage because rules aren't followed in how they were completed, and this is not debatable. This means that there are going to be less votes counted than cast. Full stop. Two, there are going to be people who say they are voting for Zombie Washington/Space Jesus ticket, who will of course vote for Trump in the privacy of the poll booth. And three, in case you haven't noticed, Donald Trump is the one already sitting in the White House, and the current Attorney General has made clear that he's Trump's attorney, not ours. So expecting those two traitors to not do everything in their power to throw the election is laughably fucking ignorant.

I agree Trump will try to cheat. I don’t agree he will be able to cheat enough to overcome Biden’s lead, primarily because the feds don’t run elections.

When Biden wins 300+ EC votes, has those EC votes officially tallied, and Trump no longer has the nuclear codes, then I'll happily say that I was paranoid.

I’m not saying don’t be paranoid, I’m saying that the complaints you have would apply to any democratic nominee and as far as that goes Biden is dominating Trump.

 

[fskimospy]

I mean if the argument is that Trump will cheat to win (and he’s trying!) then why did the nominee matter anyway.

 

[fskimospy]

Is Joe really suffering from dementia? I don't typically watch Fox News, but they make a compelling point. That Joe might not be fit (mentally) to run our country.

Yes, surely Sean Hannity will give us a fair and balanced evaluation.

 

[fskimospy]

Sadly, some of those are Trump backers who'll be certain of a win right up to the final tally (and for some, even if Trump loses). As for the moderates or pessimistic Dems? I suspect they'll be justifiably cautious, but also aware that Biden is building a momentum that might be difficult for Trump to stop.

I want to be clear I’m not asking if those who thought Biden was doomed are now certain of a win. Why would they be? I’m asking in the face of very strong evidence that Biden has a historically large lead if they have changed their opinions any.

 

[MrSquished]

I want to be clear I’m not asking if those who thought Biden was doomed are now certain of a win. Why would they be? I’m asking in the face of very strong evidence that Biden has a historically large lead if they have changed their opinions any.

The polls are too close in big swing states like OH, PA and FL. A big turnout by Trumphumpers on election day can change everything.

 

[fskimospy]

The polls are too close in big swing states like OH, PA and FL. A big turnout by Trumphumpers on election day can change everything.

Biden is up by nearly seven points in the 538 polling average for Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state. That is well outside the margin of error for a polling average.

If this election is a toss-up then all presidential elections ever are toss-ups. Like I was saying I sincerely doubt if Trump had a similar lead the arguments would be the same.

edit: to be clear what I’m saying is that whatever analysis you’re using to say it’s a toss up with such a large lead should hold true for an equally large Trump lead. I do not think it does.

 

[nickqt]

Biden is up by nearly seven points in the 538 polling average for Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state. That is well outside the margin of error for a polling average.

If this election is a toss-up then all presidential elections ever are toss-ups. Like I was saying I sincerely doubt if Trump had a similar lead the arguments would be the same.

edit: to be clear what I’m saying is that whatever analysis you’re using to say it’s a toss up with such a large lead should hold true for an equally large Trump lead. I do not think it does.

If we didn't use an Electoral College voting system for President, it'd be pretty clear that Biden has this in the bag.

All it takes is 1 more voter for Trump than Biden in OH, PA, FL, NC, MI WI and AZ for Trump to win with about 300 EC votes, even with Biden carrying 5+ Million more total popular vote.

And that's not taking into account that an outright fascist is President and has an outright fascist as Attorney General. Or The Supreme Court. Etc, ad nauseam.

 

[ondma]

I would be interested to know what any of the people sure Biden was doomed think now. Not as a trash talking exercise - as a genuine question.

I never thught Biden was doomed, but I definitely thought the election was much more in doubt than the polls indicated. Still feel the same way, although it does give me some confidence that Biden is at least maintaining his lead, or even increasing it. As another poster said though, some of the bigger swing states are still too close for comfort.

 

[Zorba]

Yes, I think this drives most of it. If Trump had an identical lead you would not see an equivalent phenomenon. He would be viewed as the overwhelming favorite, which would be accurate.

Here's the thing. Republicans are the default. If people don't vote, republicans win. If there are mile long lines, republicans win. If ballots get thrown out, republicans win. If people don't like either choice, republicans win. Etc. It's been this way my whole life. For Dems to win, everything has to go perfect, not true for reps.

 

[fskimospy]

I never thught Biden was doomed, but I definitely thought the election was much more in doubt than the polls indicated. Still feel the same way, although it does give me some confidence that Biden is at least maintaining his lead, or even increasing it. As another poster said though, some of the bigger swing states are still too close for comfort.

So to be clear you think the evidence now shows Biden is in fact doing it?

 

[fskimospy]

If we didn't use an Electoral College voting system for President, it'd be pretty clear that Biden has this in the bag.

All it takes is 1 more voter for Trump than Biden in OH, PA, FL, NC, MI WI and AZ for Trump to win with about 300 EC votes, even with Biden carrying 5+ Million more total popular vote.

And that's not taking into account that an outright fascist is President and has an outright fascist as Attorney General. Or The Supreme Court. Etc, ad nauseam.

Wouldn’t this mean that all presidential election results are unknowable?

And are you saying if Trump had a 10 point lead you would be saying it was a toss up? I think that’s unlikely.

 

[Zorba]

It's a toss up right now and it's fucking frightening. Biden will win by millions more than Hilary did even. It's all down to more evolved people turning out in states like PA and OH and FL

I'm as paranoid as ever other dem right now, but PA is not polling close: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

 

[ondma]

Wouldn’t this mean that all presidential election results are unknowable?

And are you saying if Trump had a 10 point lead you would be saying it was a toss up? I think that’s unlikely.

Trump (and Bush) have already shown that the way the votes are distributed in the electoral college favors the republicans, and that Trump can win while losing the popular vote.
Also Trump has shown that he will do all he can to contest the election should he lose. All the factors in a possible contested election (state legislatures in swing states to appoint electors, the Supreme Court, and the House (since each state gets only one vote)) also favor Trump. So the situation is not analogous.

 

[Grey_Beard]

If we didn't use an Electoral College voting system for President, it'd be pretty clear that Biden has this in the bag.

All it takes is 1 more voter for Trump than Biden in OH, PA, FL, NC, MI WI and AZ for Trump to win with about 300 EC votes, even with Biden carrying 5+ Million more total popular vote.

And that's not taking into account that an outright fascist is President and has an outright fascist as Attorney General. Or The Supreme Court. Etc, ad nauseam.

I understand the concern,but your statement is simply not factual. It would be a statistical anomaly for what you are saying to happen. Technically true, but based on the polls (believe them or not) and the early turnout, it’s really hard to see it your way. Just take Florida. At this point, Democrats have cast almost 700,000 votes to Republicons 300,000 (I am rounding so don’t shot me for not being 100% accurate). That’s a 2 to 1 margin. Never happened in Florida before. The large percentage of votes cast almost anywhere are Democrats. If this continues, which I feel it will, your scenario will not happen. In 2016, during this time frame the race tightened. Although some called in for Clinton at 98%, there were some that raised the possibility that what happened could. I do not see that here. I expected in 2016 for Clinton to increase her lead in a October, but that never happened. Additionally, the early turnout was about 10% of what is happening now. You got to vote. Yes anything can happen, but there are not the red light flashing like in 2016. You can say they are, but they are not. Of you see them, post them as I would like to see the data too.