I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

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Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,547
1,127
126
manly said:
It has, but we're still 4 weeks out.
Note that Obama had merely a 2% "national" lead over Romney on election day 2012, but 538 modeled that as 92% to win based on EC math and there being no time left for Romney to close the gap.
Click to expand...

If the election were today it Biden would be at 94% chance of winning and Trump at 6%.


The 538 probability is for Election Day and has a built in assumptions Trump will make gains the closer the election comes. Trumps probability odds for Election Day will only go down every days until the election as the built in assumption is not proving true as Trump keeps doubling down on unforced errors. As each day ticks by with no or negative improvement his odds of winning on Election Day slip.


He has about two weeks to turn it around or he’s looking at single digit probability on Election Day.

Everyone mentions Clinton’s polls. Biden situations no where like Clinton’s. That said no slacking everyone needs to go vote to make sure this happens.
 
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Fanatical Meat

Fanatical Meat

Lifer
Feb 4, 2009
35,862
17,403
136
K1052 said:
Trump is infected with COVID and has probable health impacts.

His campaign is effectively crippled by the virus outbreak he helped seed through carelessness

His polling has gone from poor to terrible.

And now the money has given up on him:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313835608792592389
Click to expand...

Makes sense, I read an article earlier this morning how about Martha McSally refusing to say she supports the President during her debate. She has a tight rope to walk, appears she has been 100% behind the President on pretty much everything.
I suspect there was some closed door meeting without a representative for the President and many agreed to cut the rope.
 
W

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,547
1,127
126
11 GOP Senate seats are in play either Dems leading(5), tied(3), or +1-2 GOP(3). 12 if you count today’s poll out of Texas. But it could just be an outlier in a poorly polled state.
 
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B

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
29,861
30,647
136
K1052 said:
If McSally runs again in 2022 she can loose a 3rd consecutive Senate election in 6 years and for the same seat twice. One way into the record books.
Click to expand...
You would think here donors would get tired of pouring money down that bottomless pit.
 
Fanatical Meat

Fanatical Meat

Lifer
Feb 4, 2009
35,862
17,403
136
K1052 said:
Hard to shake the impression the campaign is increasingly cash poor and shifting spend around chasing their polling.

Meanwhile Biden is spending absolutely everywhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313928272011460616
Click to expand...

Not hard at all. Running a campaign is like running a business. The President has bankrupted several of them.
I am more than confident many of the Presidents buds have huge amounts of money from his campaign.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,615
46,283
136
fskimospy said:
I’ve also seen reporting that big donors are no longer contributing to Trump’s campaign and are instead shifting down ballot.
Click to expand...

Yeas and he can't hold events to drum up cash now either. It is possible the campaign is more severely depleted than generally known.
 
Grey_Beard

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,825
2,007
136
Fanatical Meat said:
Not hard at all. Running a campaign is like running a business. The President has bankrupted several of them.
I am more than confident many of the Presidents buds have huge amounts of money from his campaign.
Click to expand...

So does tRump Co. He has laundered a great of these dollars to himself, which is why he could not stop others for that would expose him. I am sure tRump’s net worth has gone from a negative $1 Billion to a negative $500 Million, albeit still negative. He needs a good Powerball jackpot to get back to destitute.
 
Mai72

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,562
1,741
126
I think Trump is very sick, and his condition is being hidden by his inner circle.

Do you guys feel the same? He just didn't look good.
 
Mai72

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,562
1,741
126
K1052 said:
Hard to shake the impression the campaign is increasingly cash poor and shifting spend around chasing their polling.

Meanwhile Biden is spending absolutely everywhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313928272011460616
Click to expand...

From the Trump camp... “If overspending on TV ads determined the outcome of elections, Hillary Clinton would be president — but it’s cute that Joe Biden and his campaign think buying ads in these states makes up for years of Democrats viewing them as flyover country," Samantha Zager, the Trump campaign's deputy national press secretary, said in a statement to BuzzFeed News. "Biden can try to buy votes, but President Trump and his campaign will continue earning them on the ground and on the airwaves — and come November, we’ll be celebrating victory while Biden binge watches his TV ads from his basement.”
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,834
33,874
136
Fanatical Meat said:
Makes sense, I read an article earlier this morning how about Martha McSally refusing to say she supports the President during her debate. She has a tight rope to walk, appears she has been 100% behind the President on pretty much everything.
I suspect there was some closed door meeting without a representative for the President and many agreed to cut the rope.
Click to expand...
Back when McSally ran for the House, she presented herself as a moderate, a wise move in a swing district. Once in office, she revealed herself to be a looney tunes rightwing party hack. The voters of Arizona, wisely, if barely, chose to not send her to the Senate. The Governor had other ideas and foisted McSally on the nation. It's a bit late for McSally to be backpedaling her dog-like allegiance to Trump. She's been every bit the Trump-humper as anyone in the West Wing.
 
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K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,615
46,283
136
Mai72 said:
From the Trump camp... “If overspending on TV ads determined the outcome of elections, Hillary Clinton would be president — but it’s cute that Joe Biden and his campaign think buying ads in these states makes up for years of Democrats viewing them as flyover country," Samantha Zager, the Trump campaign's deputy national press secretary, said in a statement to BuzzFeed News. "Biden can try to buy votes, but President Trump and his campaign will continue earning them on the ground and on the airwaves — and come November, we’ll be celebrating victory while Biden binge watches his TV ads from his basement.”
Click to expand...

yeah

They’d be up on the air if they could afford it.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,856
31,346
146
K1052 said:
Trump is infected with COVID and has probable health impacts.

His campaign is effectively crippled by the virus outbreak he helped seed through carelessness

His polling has gone from poor to terrible.

And now the money has given up on him:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313835608792592389
Click to expand...

so are we going to get to watch Mitch and Lindsey turn their starved, bloodswollen gazes towards Trump and start ripping at him and feasting on his liver on live TV at some point?


That would be awesome.
 
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Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,688
126
manly said:
It has, but we're still 4 weeks out.
Note that Obama had merely a 2% "national" lead over Romney on election day 2012, but 538 modeled that as 92% to win based on EC math and there being no time left for Romney to close the gap.
Click to expand...
Wreckem said:
If the election were today it Biden would be at 94% chance of winning and Trump at 6%.


The 538 probability is for Election Day and has a built in assumptions Trump will make gains the closer the election comes. Trumps probability odds for Election Day will only go down every days until the election as the built in assumption is not proving true as Trump keeps doubling down on unforced errors. As each day ticks by with no or negative improvement his odds of winning on Election Day slip.


He has about two weeks to turn it around or he’s looking at single digit probability on Election Day.

Everyone mentions Clinton’s polls. Biden situations no where like Clinton’s. That said no slacking everyone needs to go vote to make sure this happens.
Click to expand...

That makes sense, thanks. I did know that the model assumes some convergence in the polling numbers, and the odds for the leading candidate go up as the election approaches, but I didn't realize the effect was that dramatic.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,936
55,293
136
Wreckem said:
If the election were today it Biden would be at 94% chance of winning and Trump at 6%.


The 538 probability is for Election Day and has a built in assumptions Trump will make gains the closer the election comes. Trumps probability odds for Election Day will only go down every days until the election as the built in assumption is not proving true as Trump keeps doubling down on unforced errors. As each day ticks by with no or negative improvement his odds of winning on Election Day slip.


He has about two weeks to turn it around or he’s looking at single digit probability on Election Day.

Everyone mentions Clinton’s polls. Biden situations no where like Clinton’s. That said no slacking everyone needs to go vote to make sure this happens.
Click to expand...
Nate Silver also mentioned a very important thing on his Twitter feed the other day. Not only does 538's projection build in the assumption that Biden's lead will revert to the mean over time, it also builds in the idea that the polls are just wrong.

So when they say Biden has an ~85% chance of winning they are saying that's true even though: 1) Trump will probably gain ground over the next month and 2) The polls might be biased in Biden's favor.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,615
46,283
136
State of the race today:

Trump is down by 10 points
He's got pneumonia from COVID
The campaign coffers are near empty with three weeks to go
McConnell is going to block any stimulus unless Trump threatens the SCOTUS seat
Further debates appear unlikely

To fix this he's decided to...guest host Rush Limbaugh's show.
 
E

eelw

Lifer
Dec 4, 1999
10,334
5,487
136
But he had his way out. Just pretend he was sicker than he actually was. Better to act weak from a virus that can take out marathon runners and limp across the finish line. Excuse of losing because he couldn't campaign for last month is more acceptable than how he's screwing up everything. Now he's going to lose in record fashion. His greatest EC win is going pale in comparison to his record EC loss.
 
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