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I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
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You would think, and especially democrats would think that this was the moment where it all ends for Donald Trump. I mean really.... Trump has checked off every box on the list of things a president must do to not get re-elected. Just look at the list, all the boxes are check off, yet the chances of Donald Trump wining re-election is about 50 50. If Joe were to win, Joe would need to be way ahead of Donald in the polls at this point, and even with considering the current state of the union it's still boils down to anyones guess. WTF is up with that? This should be game over for the orange cow. By the way... it just occurred to me that wouldn't this be the perfect time for Donald Trump to give one of those state of the union speeches? AMERICA, THE STATE OF THE UNION IS GOOD. NEVER MIND THE RIOTS IN THE STREETS, THOSE 100,000 DEATHS, SKYROCKETING UNEMPLOYMENT, AND HALF OF THE BUSINESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY CLOSED. :rolleyes: I can just hear Donald Trump claiming incredible failure equals great success during that state of the union address.

But that isn't why I posted. I post because I find it too too bad that history has failed democrats once again. Now would be the perfect most excellent time to have a democratic challenger that could really give a great speech and electrify America. Someone that could put into words what America has become and where America needs to go. And I'm sorry democrats, but Joe just doesn't cut it. Oh sure.... from time to time Joe can get off a few good ones like when Donald Trump held up the bible and Joe suggested that Donald open that bible and read it. That was a good one for joe, but smart comebacks won't get Joe Biden elected in November.

So so sooooo tragic that history is not aligned with democrats for this election. If history was kind to democrats, democrats would have someone that could really bring it all home and leave Donald Trump in the dust. Oh say, a democrat like an FDR or JFK or someone like his brother RFK. Or how about a MLK? But crap.... the historical timing this time is all screwed up for poor democrats. All that democrats have is Joe Biden when democrats really really need one of those "people politicians" from the past. And when you think about the greats, they were all democrats for the most part. You'd have to go way way back to old president Abe Lincoln to find a republican that fit the bill as a man of the people. Some might say that Ronald Reagan was in that class of people presidents, but Reagan really wasn't. Reagan was popular for pretty much the same reason that Donald Trump is popular, the ability to suppress the middle class only to appease their wealthy base. Need we be reminded of "trickle down" ???

No.... it doesn't look good for democrats and that is a crying shame because this should be a slam-dunk for democrats to rid the country of Donald Trump. JFK could do it, RFK could do it, FDR could absolutely do it, and MLK would hit that MEGA hat out of the park. But democrats don't have any of those great leaders, not for this time in history. All democrats have to work with is.... Joe Biden. And that my friends is a real democratic pisser of mass proportion. If democrats are to beat Donald Trump in November, a lot of fingers will need to be crossed, and a lot of prayers for miracles from heaven will need to be prayed. Why has history forsaken us? This is not the way it should be. At any other time democrats would be all set. Democrats would have that perfect "people candidate" to excite the country and electrify the electorate both democrat and republican. But not this time. Excuse me while I go kick something... :(
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
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Sorry, but that is not the way-ahead that democrats need. 10 points can easily evaporate a few weeks before election day. If I remember, Hillary's numbers were even better and look what happened. All I can say is pray your ass off...

PS. I have to add and I've been wanting to share this...
I know a high profile black woman in my state (I didn't say that right), but she is very engaged in the community and with the black vote and how that black vote will go on election day. Well, I hate to say it but Joe's YOUR NOT BLACK comment really hurt Joe Biden. According to her, Joe's statement turned off a lot of black voters. Turned black voters off to the point that many claim they will sit it out and stay home this election. They don't like Trump, but now Joe Biden has let the down. And I believe her and what she says because I find it arrogant for democrats to assume that the black vote will stick with Biden. Just because a few nationally known black leaders get on TV and claim that blacks are all in for Joe, that doesn't mean it is true. All I can say..... if SHE is worried then I am worried.
 
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eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
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The only votes he has are his loyal 30% MAGA base. He’s lost the independents that were willing to give him a try. The ones that decided to sit out in 2016 will now vote especially after this week. Even if the Bernie Bros somehow revolt, there’s not enough for Biden to lose.
 
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MrSquished

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Jan 14, 2013
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Sorry, but that is not the way-ahead that democrats need. 10 points can easily evaporate a few weeks before election day. If I remember, Hillary's numbers were even better and look what happened. All I can say is pray your ass off...
no you don't remember is the problem. Biden is in the best position polling wise at this point since scientific polling started in presidential races. get a clue.
 
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mect

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Jan 5, 2004
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I'm curious where you got the 50% probability from. While I don't know that its possible to calculate a reliable number, I say Biden is by far the favorite. Hillary had a far higher unfavorability compared to Biden, and Trump's victory was extremely improbable. I wouldn't bank on him repeating those razor thin margins again. In addition, there are more and more states that are historically republican strongholds that are starting to come into play. In 2016, people were fairly lackadaisical about the election because it looked so likely that Clinton would win. I don't see that repeating in 2020. A potential nightmare is different than an experienced nightmare.

I'm not saying Biden can't loose. Crazy things happen all the time, and this is the craziest year in many decades. I just wouldn't bet on Biden losing.
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
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I wish he was ahead much more, the fact still is he's way ahead of where Ds usually are. Remember Bush-Kerry?

Jesus, it's not like he's out wind surfing and letting a draft dodger paint a purple heart veteran as a coward and a fraud.

Otherwise, needing a generational candidate every election cycle is not a strong strategy. Gotta be able to win the regular guys sometimes.
 
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HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
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Sorry, but that is not the way-ahead that democrats need. 10 points can easily evaporate a few weeks before election day. If I remember, Hillary's numbers were even better and look what happened. All I can say is pray your ass off...

PS. I have to add and I've been wanting to share this...
I know a high profile black woman in my state (I didn't say that right), but she is very engaged in the community and with the black vote and how that black vote will go on election day. Well, I hate to say it but Joe's YOUR NOT BLACK comment really hurt Joe Biden. According to her, Joe's statement turned off a lot of black voters. Turned black voters off to the point that many claim they will sit it out and stay home this election. They don't like Trump, but now Joe Biden has let the down. And I believe her and what she says because I find it arrogant for democrats to assume that the black vote will stick with Biden. Just because a few nationally known black leaders get on TV and claim that blacks are all in for Joe, that doesn't mean it is true. All I can say..... if SHE is worried then I am worried.
One advantage Joe has he isn't hated like Hillary. We got Joe due to his acceptability to others not because he was necessarily the best candidate. All because IMO the record polarization.
 
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Feb 4, 2009
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The only votes he has are his loyal 30% MAGA base. He’s lost the independents that were willing to give him a try. The ones that decided to sit out in 2016 will now vote especially after this week. Even if the Bernie Bros somehow revolt, there’s not enough for Biden to lose.
As we saw in the Primaries, Bros don’t vote.....

#joke
#duckforcover
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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you also have to remember that Donny's approval ratings during a ...wait, now TWO national crises is shockingly bad. Like, should be on trial and sent to the gallows bad.

A barely-capable president should be in the ~70% approval simply handling pandemic policy, just sleep walking through it, but Trump couldn't even manage 40%. The more he flaps, the more his approval drops.

The guy is an ambulatory disaster with a human-like husk. ....if his current approvals actually represent some sort of "crisis boost," I wonder what they really are?

....well, that actually doesn't make sense. I guess we need to stop assuming a boost would be guaranteed, whatever the degree. It's pretty clear that the worst of the worst forms of leadership can really see flat negative approval in their resposne to a crisis. Oh yeah, we did have that Hoover guy, once.
 
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MrSquished

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Jan 14, 2013
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RCP poll leads on this day in history: 2020: Biden +8.0 2016: Clinton +1.5 2012: Obama +1.3 2008: Obama +1.4
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
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Joe's the anti-trumpf. He's being measured, understated. He's gonna surprise you. Majorly. You'll wanna stay tuned. Trumpf will act out, get greasy, throw gasoline on the fires. It will be an evolving situation.

Sportage is playing devil's advocate... alright, but the 2016 mistake of thinking Trumpf's chances are zilch aren't going to repeat. A stake through his heart is the only thing that will satisfy and that can come from one thing only, the election (well, he could die from a heart attack, but that's just wishful thinking).
 
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brainhulk

Diamond Member
Sep 14, 2007
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I hope Joe wins but he might have antagonized some of the black vote with that on air gaffe with that rapper. Maybe pickup Kamala Harris or Cunilingus Rice?
 

FaaR

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2007
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And I'm sorry democrats, but Joe just doesn't cut it.
This is because Dem voters hold their candidates up to standards of behavior that Repugger voters simply never bother with at all. All a Repugger really ask of their candidate is that they're promised more jerbs and lower taxes (they're OK with the jerbs being all minimum wage and vast majority of those tax breaks going to the uber rich tho; it still counts in their book as fulfilling an election promise), and less "entitlements" to all those undeserving layabouts. If a Repugger politician in the process also manages to crap on black and brown people and any uppity treehuggers or indiginous people, well, so much the better.

Respecting the rights and liberties of women and minorities, protecting air, water and soil, fighting global warming, promoting green technology, combatting far right extremism and respecting peoples' right to privacy for example are either non-issues or outright devilry - especially if it leads to even a penny higher taxes or any lost jerbs whatsoever.

The latter, it doesn't matter if let's say green tech jobs can outmatch any lost fossil energy jerbs; during the corona thing going on, green energy sector (temporarily) lost more jobs due to U.S. shutdowns than ALL people jerbing in the coal sector.

Think about that for a sec.

So while Dems erratically wander about searching for their golden goose perfect candidate (which doesn't exist) and pulling in various different directions, Repuggers will happily vote for the most hateful motherfragger who comes along, promising them to own the libs harder than anyone has ever owned a lib before. Because that's how the world is today.
 
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sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
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I WAS playing devils advocate.
And all I know is that my Trumpie family are 100% united behind Donald Trump, as are 100% of all Trumpie republicans across the nation. They have not faltered one percentage point in their loyalty to Trump. They don't care about embarrassing photo ops in front of a church, or the gassing of peaceful protestors. There is nothing that Donald Trump could do that would flip their loyalty one bit.

Whereas, all it would take is one screw-up from Joe Biden, one stupid comment not thought through, one brain fart, or the hint of one little scandal from year past to chip away at Biden's chances. Republicans are about to begin sending out subpoenas to investigate Obama and Biden over the Trump Russia thing. Republicans will set the stage for raising doubt with some undecided voters. All that republicans need do is turn-off a few Biden democrats and Biden independents. Republicans only need raise doubt in the minds of Biden voters and discourage those voters from coming out to vote. This is already happening within the black vote after what Biden said about blacks not being black. Joe's brain fart did not necessarily flip black democrats over to Trump, but that Biden brain fart did turn off enough black voters from turning out on election day. That doubt is all republicans need do to swing the election over to Donald Trump.

Republicans have four months to get Donald Trump re-elected. Four months to create chaos and doubt within democrats and independents. Four months to investigate and make it appear that Joe Biden is the Benedict Arnold of modern day. Four months to dig up dirt on Biden, and if the dirt republicans dig up isn't dirty enough they will simply make up some new dirt to do the job. Despite the country operating at only 50 %, that republican mean machine will be operating at full capacity 24/7.

Donald Trump could get away with murder while Joe Biden could lose thousands of votes over one misspoken word. The playing field is no where near level, or fair. Trump is held up to no standards while democrats will hold their own to the highest standards. We have no idea what dumb off the wall statement(s) Joe will come up with in the next four months. As for Donald Trump, Trump can say anything that comes to his delusional mind and it will make not one difference to his loyal base.

Republicans don't need to win over new voters, republicans only need to turn-off voters that would have gone Biden. The republican voters are already turned on and they will turn out, where Joe Biden voters could be not so sure about electing Joe Biden. I don't know... but if Joe Biden does indeed have that loyal to the end voter base standing behind Joe, the never Trump voters, I sure don't see it. We all see those loyal to the end Trump voters out there, but we can only assume Joe will enjoy the same loyalty from democrats. That is a lot to assume. I already detect a crack in those Joe Biden black voters, and it only took Joe a few words to create that crack himself. Joe still has another four full months to go to keep from talking his stupid talk again. Four months is a long long time when so much is at stake. PRAY democrats PRAY !!!!
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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I believe Joe will do it, however I think Bernie woulda crushed him AND the racist rebellion behind him boogaloo and whatnot.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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National polls are absolutely useless.
This is not even close to true. There is no remotely plausible scenario where Biden wins the national popular vote by eight points and loses the election. While it’s correct that in the end it comes down to state votes it’s also pretty easy to calculate the probability of victory based on the national popular vote margin. Biden wins by 2? He likely loses the election. Biden wins by 4? He very likely wins. Biden wins by 6? Game over.

I would personally be surprised if the eventual vote margin is as high as 8 points but we should keep in mind that Biden’s lead over Trump has been very steady at around 6 points. Opinions about Trump are pretty much fixed at this point and this election is a referendum on Trump, so this is an uphill climb for Trump at a minimum.

I have to say it’s very odd how people look at a situation where by American presidential election standards Biden is obliterating Trump and come to the conclusion that he will most likely lose. I suspect this is overcompensation for 2016. It’s certainly POSSIBLE that he loses but I would be interested to know the logic process that says ‘the guy down eight points is the likely winner’, because if you didn’t know the names of the candidates there’s no way people would predict that.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
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That is about 8 points.

Let's compare Trump vs Hillary

Hillary was also in good shape most of the time.


Like last election the Dems went for the DNC favorite even though another candidate was favored over Hillary to win over Donnie.

As you posted without comment I don't know what you mean in your post so it's not possible to know what you mean to say. Maybe address that before it gets removed? I for one would like to know your thoughts.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
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That is about 8 points.

Let's compare Trump vs Hillary

Hillary was also in good shape most of the time.


Like last election the Dems went for the DNC favorite even though another candidate was favored over Hillary to win over Donnie.

As you posted without comment I don't know what you mean in your post so it's not possible to know what you mean to say. Maybe address that before it gets removed? I for one would like to know your thoughts.
As mentioned earlier in this thread Biden's current lead is about SEVEN times larger than Clinton's at this time in 2016 or even Obama's in 2012. That's a lot! It also exceeds the largest margin Clinton led Trump by at any time where the nominees were both settled. It doesn't mean he must win, but he's currently around tied for the largest lead Obama ever had in the polls, even in 2008.

Democrats went with the nominee who consistently outpolled every other potential Democratic nominee against Trump. While he might not be the favorite of people on here (myself included) that's most likely an electoral strength. Our votes against Trump are in the bag and Biden has proven consistently more popular than other Democrats at getting the votes of people who aren't in the bag. That's the benefit to Biden, maybe we don't get all the changes we want (or need!) but he's probably the strongest against Trump 1 on 1.
 
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