I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[Fanatical Meat]

As mentioned earlier in this thread Biden's current lead is about SEVEN times larger than Clinton's at this time in 2016 or even Obama's in 2012. That's a lot! It also exceeds the largest margin Clinton led Trump by at any time where the nominees were both settled. It doesn't mean he must win, but he's currently around tied for the largest lead Obama ever had in the polls, even in 2008.

Democrats went with the nominee who consistently outpolled every other potential Democratic nominee against Trump. While he might not be the favorite of people on here (myself included) that's most likely an electoral strength. Our votes against Trump are in the bag and Biden has proven consistently more popular than other Democrats at getting the votes of people who aren't in the bag. That's the benefit to Biden, maybe we don't get all the changes we want (or need!) but he's probably the strongest against Trump 1 on 1.

Meh, post 2016 I don’t trust polling and I won’t trust polling until they get it right.

 

[fskimospy]

Meh, post 2016 I don’t trust polling and I won’t trust polling until they get it right.

The polls in 2016 were extremely accurate though? The national polls predicted the outcome within about a point.

 

[Starbuck1975]

NoTrump was not enough for Hillary to win, but Trump has so greatly bungled the federal response to COVID-19 and the Floyd protests, that I don’t see any path for him to win. Not sure that Trump even wants the job at this point save that it’s the only thing keeping him out of prison.

All he needed to do was competently manage COVID-19 and display some empathy towards the Floyd protestors, and he could have handily won.

Instead, Trump and the GOP have lowered the bar such that Biden’s liabilities are irrelevant at this point.

 

[eelw]

Indeed, the orange baby definitely wants out from his responsibilities. But is his hate of losing greater than this?

 

[ch33zw1z]

NoTrump was not enough for Hillary to win, but Trump has so greatly bungled the federal response to COVID-19 and the Floyd protests, that I don’t see any path for him to win. Not sure that Trump even wants the job at this point save that it’s the only thing keeping him out of prison.

All he needed to do was competently manage COVID-19 and display some empathy towards the Floyd protestors, and he could have handily won.

Instead, Trump and the GOP have lowered the bar such that Biden’s liabilities are irrelevant at this point.

While I want to agree, I don't see how I can underestimate the stupidity of USA's citizens like I did in 2016. I mean, Trump's still just sticking it to the lib's like always, stroking his supports enlarged fear centers by hating on anyone who isn't white christian.

 

[fskimospy]

Indeed, the orange baby definitely wants out from his responsibilities. But is his hate of losing greater than this?

As Starbuck mentions there is also the far from trivial threat of prosecution for himself and his family.

This is why he will be so dangerous, he could literally be fighting for his life. (Life meaning life outside of prison.)

 

[Starbuck1975]

While I want to agree, I don't see how I can underestimate the stupidity of USA's citizens like I did in 2016. I mean, Trump's still just sticking it to the lib's like always, stroking his supports enlarged fear centers by hating on anyone who isn't white christian.

This goes beyond sticking it to the libs. Trump crossed the most dangerous of lines.

This is about being on the right side of history.

I don’t care for Biden, because to me he represents the uninspired, hypocritical, opportunistic and nepotistic political establishment that paved the road to Trump. That is not bothsiderism, it is a hard truth. I’ve also come to accept that many of you will never acknowledge this, and that is ok.

Having said that, I pledge to vote for Biden because removing Trump is the only consideration at this moment in history.

 

[eelw]

Hey he sees the light. Welcome to the evil side of Biden or bust.

 

[Muse]

I WAS playing devils advocate.
And all I know is that my Trumpie family are 100% united behind Donald Trump, as are 100% of all Trumpie republicans across the nation. They have not faltered one percentage point in their loyalty to Trump. They don't care about embarrassing photo ops in front of a church, or the gassing of peaceful protestors. There is nothing that Donald Trump could do that would flip their loyalty one bit.

Whereas, all it would take is one screw-up from Joe Biden, one stupid comment not thought through, one brain fart, or the hint of one little scandal from year past to chip away at Biden's chances. Republicans are about to begin sending out subpoenas to investigate Obama and Biden over the Trump Russia thing. Republicans will set the stage for raising doubt with some undecided voters. All that republicans need do is turn-off a few Biden democrats and Biden independents. Republicans only need raise doubt in the minds of Biden voters and discourage those voters from coming out to vote. This is already happening within the black vote after what Biden said about blacks not being black. Joe's brain fart did not necessarily flip black democrats over to Trump, but that Biden brain fart did turn off enough black voters from turning out on election day. That doubt is all republicans need do to swing the election over to Donald Trump.

Republicans have four months to get Donald Trump re-elected. Four months to create chaos and doubt within democrats and independents. Four months to investigate and make it appear that Joe Biden is the Benedict Arnold of modern day. Four months to dig up dirt on Biden, and if the dirt republicans dig up isn't dirty enough they will simply make up some new dirt to do the job. Despite the country operating at only 50 %, that republican mean machine will be operating at full capacity 24/7.

Donald Trump could get away with murder while Joe Biden could lose thousands of votes over one misspoken word. The playing field is no where near level, or fair. Trump is held up to no standards while democrats will hold their own to the highest standards. We have no idea what dumb off the wall statement(s) Joe will come up with in the next four months. As for Donald Trump, Trump can say anything that comes to his delusional mind and it will make not one difference to his loyal base.

Republicans don't need to win over new voters, republicans only need to turn-off voters that would have gone Biden. The republican voters are already turned on and they will turn out, where Joe Biden voters could be not so sure about electing Joe Biden. I don't know... but if Joe Biden does indeed have that loyal to the end voter base standing behind Joe, the never Trump voters, I sure don't see it. We all see those loyal to the end Trump voters out there, but we can only assume Joe will enjoy the same loyalty from democrats. That is a lot to assume. I already detect a crack in those Joe Biden black voters, and it only took Joe a few words to create that crack himself. Joe still has another four full months to go to keep from talking his stupid talk again. Four months is a long long time when so much is at stake. PRAY democrats PRAY !!!!

Your perspective here is oblique, and I'm sure everyone realizes that. Of course you're being uber hyperbolic when asserting that all the trumpies are incontrovertible, will not budge from their "man" regardless of, of ovvvvv anything. That in itself is simply not true. Besides that, not everyone who might (and will) vote for Trumps is a trumpie. There are and will be plenty of voters who could go one way or the other. There are trumpies no doubt but there aren't enough of them to reelect the ___. And saying that Biden lost a shit ton of votes when he said "then you're not black" is presumptive. It was a gaff. I understand what he was getting at. I think most black voters understood his intended message and are cool with it. Are you black? I don't think so. And what gives you such insight into what black voters are thinking or what they're going to do or how they are going to vote? It was a gaff. Biden makes them, but gaffs are not the issues that Turmp has, let's be honest here.

I understand that you are out on a limb and scalded because of your family and its trumpers. That's a tough one. Anyway, I'm not putting down on you, on the contrary, congrats for being the rock in your family that you are. I hope they somewhere in their minds realize it.

Edit: What I meant to say off the bat... not four months, it's five to election day.

Edit2: I don't know what's going to happen, nobody does. I mean, there are going to be a lot of things happening between now and election day, things that would seem to tip things one way or another and this is on a daily basis. I'm hoping that when it all sorts out, the Democrats will win. I soooooo mean that.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

This goes beyond sticking it to the libs. Trump crossed the most dangerous of lines.

This is about being on the right side of history.

I don’t care for Biden, because to me he represents the uninspired, hypocritical, opportunistic and nepotistic political establishment that paved the road to Trump. That is not bothsiderism, it is a hard truth. I’ve also come to accept that many of you will never acknowledge this, and that is ok.

Having said that, I pledge to vote for Biden because removing Trump is the only consideration at this moment in history.

This post surprisingly lacks whatabout’s. Well said and I agree on some level.

 

[Jhhnn]

This goes beyond sticking it to the libs. Trump crossed the most dangerous of lines.

This is about being on the right side of history.

I don’t care for Biden, because to me he represents the uninspired, hypocritical, opportunistic and nepotistic political establishment that paved the road to Trump. That is not bothsiderism, it is a hard truth. I’ve also come to accept that many of you will never acknowledge this, and that is ok.

Having said that, I pledge to vote for Biden because removing Trump is the only consideration at this moment in history.

That's merely an opinion, not a hard truth. It's also a more subtle version of your usual bothsiderism.

 

[K1052]

So it doesn't look good for Biden while Trump's campaign is having to spend money on him in TX, GA, and OH to prop him up where his recent head to heads are well within MOE.

Alright then.

I'm going to submit a lukewarm take and propose that much of the country is simply becoming exhausted by Trump and the huge successive failures of the last few months have put that sentiment into hyperdrive. They want it to stop and Biden presents an adequate brake to climb off the ride to those voters.

 

[Thump553]

Please quit the hand-wringing and specifically state what Biden isn't doing that he should be doing? He gave an extremely powerful speech yesterday-one that should lay to rest all of the "senile Joe" claims here-but those posters totally ignored it. He been visiting with black church parishioners, and black church leaders in the last few days with real progress.

Instead you focus on a somewhat typical gaffe he made a couple of weeks ago. Joe Biden is rather well known for periodically saying stupid things-the day he stops I will be worried about his mental state.

A substantial number of posters here feel we should go with another 30% like Trump on the theory the rest of American will hold their noses and vote for Bernie. I would if that was the only choice but that would be an almost guaranteed victory for His Donaldship.

 

[K1052]

And in the famously blue state of North Carolina...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1268524714407927809

 

[fskimospy]

So it doesn't look good for Biden while Trump's campaign is having to spend money on him in TX, GA, and OH to prop him up where his recent head to heads are well within MOE.

Alright then.

I'm going to submit a lukewarm take and propose that much of the country is simply becoming exhausted by Trump and the huge successive failures of the last few months have put that sentiment into hyperdrive. They want it to stop and Biden presents an adequate brake to climb off the ride to those voters.

This has been my take for quite a while now. My gut tells me the average person is just tired of the constant chaos and so someone saying they will return us to some semblance of normalcy will be a powerful motivator.

 

[sandorski]

Trump is working hard to get Biden elected. So Biden has a chance.

 

[Wreckem]

National polls are absolutely useless.

Trump and Biden are within the margin of error in the State of Texas.

Trump is losing in most swing states. He’s getting blown out in some swing states. Its early and a lot could still happen but the Dems are looking very favorable in terms of retaking the Senate. Colorado and Arizona pretty much look in the bag. Right now you have dems beating incumbents in polling across a lot of republican senate seats. More are polling in the margin of error. Dems will be at minimum plus 1 and maximum of plus 8.

 

[cytg111]

This goes beyond sticking it to the libs. Trump crossed the most dangerous of lines.

This is about being on the right side of history.

I don’t care for Biden, because to me he represents the uninspired, hypocritical, opportunistic and nepotistic political establishment that paved the road to Trump. That is not bothsiderism, it is a hard truth. I’ve also come to accept that many of you will never acknowledge this, and that is ok.

Having said that, I pledge to vote for Biden because removing Trump is the only consideration at this moment in history.

for shades of agree, yea.

Please quit the hand-wringing and specifically state what Biden isn't doing that he should be doing? He gave an extremely powerful speech yesterday-one that should lay to rest all of the "senile Joe" claims here-but those posters totally ignored it. He been visiting with black church parishioners, and black church leaders in the last few days with real progress.

Instead you focus on a somewhat typical gaffe he made a couple of weeks ago. Joe Biden is rather well known for periodically saying stupid things-the day he stops I will be worried about his mental state.

A substantial number of posters here feel we should go with another 30% like Trump on the theory the rest of American will hold their noses and vote for Bernie. I would if that was the only choice but that would be an almost guaranteed victory for His Donaldship.

Well he sort of promised a return to “normal” and work across the isle with gop-isis critters... the old normal is what carved out a path for Trump.
Still, the Trump-wound may be enough for another 20 years before another charlatan raises the bigot critters again.
But lets see, what if he starts with single payer and you get GOP out of congress... who knows

 

[sandorski]

That's merely an opinion, not a hard truth. It's also a more subtle version of your usual bothsiderism.

Unfortunately, he speaks the truth. The Democrats need to learn this before something worse than current Trump is President. The People are whom the Government is supposed to work for, not the Oligarchs.

 

[cytg111]

Trump and Biden are within the margin of error in the State of Texas.

Trump is losing in most swing states. He’s getting blown out in some swing states. Its early and a lot could still happen but the Dems are looking very favorable in terms of retaking the Senate. Colorado and Arizona pretty much look in the bag. Right now you have dems beating incumbents in polling across a lot of republican senate seats. More are polling in the margin of error. Dems will be at minimum plus 1 and maximum of plus 8.

If it keeps looking bad for Trump... Trump will pull out all whats possible... including getting covid to Biden somehow, of this I am certain.

 

[cytg111]

Unfortunately, he speaks the truth. The Democrats need to learn this before something worse than current Trump is President. The People are whom the Government is supposed to work for, not the Oligarchs.

Imagine Barr as pres. Same vile nature double the IQ.

 

[Jhhnn]

for shades of agree, yea.


Well he sort of promised a return to “normal” and work across the isle with gop-isis critters... the old normal is what carved out a path for Trump.
Still, the Trump-wound may be enough for another 20 years before another charlatan raises the bigot critters again.
But lets see, what if he starts with single payer and you get GOP out of congress... who knows

It's not about a return to normal. It's about progress, about the more perfect Union Obama talked about. It's about better rather than about the same.

What carved a path for Trump wasn't what Dems did but what decades of relentless right wing mind rot did to the attitudes of all too many Americans.

 

[Wreckem]

While I want to agree, I don't see how I can underestimate the stupidity of USA's citizens like I did in 2016. I mean, Trump's still just sticking it to the lib's like always, stroking his supports enlarged fear centers by hating on anyone who isn't white christian.

Polling data suggests that Trump is losing key groups necessary for him to win. He’s losing the 65+ vote, as 65+ female have almost all abandoned him. He’s also losing more of the suburban vote as he is also losing the white female suburban vote. He’s also losing the independents.

Theres a reason why elected GOP leaders have a lot of fear right now. Trump could do so poorly he wipes out a lot of what should have been safe Republican incumbents.

Like I said in another thread. There are really only two outcomes of this election. Trump is re-elected narrowing in the electors college while losing the popular vote by 6million and the dems make minor pickups in both the house and senate, possibly enough to control the senate 51-49.

The other is a blue tsunami wipes out safe gop incumbents and the dems net 20+ house seats and net 8+ in the Senate and Biden is sworn in as President.

This election is also pivotal at the state level. The down ballot consequences at the state level are real since it is a census year.

 

[Jhhnn]

Unfortunately, he speaks the truth. The Democrats need to learn this before something worse than current Trump is President. The People are whom the Government is supposed to work for, not the Oligarchs.

Unfortunately, you've shown us all that the only reason you're in any discussion here is to tear down the Democrats. Your promotion of Tara Reade's scurrilous & utterly preposterous accusations showed that entirely. Starbuck did the same. When the GOP tries to re-animate the corpse of Ukrainian corruption you'll be right on that, too, I suspect. Maybe you can give us the creepy Joe & the senile Joe routines while you're at it.

 

[woolfe9998]

This is not even close to true. There is no remotely plausible scenario where Biden wins the national popular vote by eight points and loses the election. While it’s correct that in the end it comes down to state votes it’s also pretty easy to calculate the probability of victory based on the national popular vote margin. Biden wins by 2? He likely loses the election. Biden wins by 4? He very likely wins. Biden wins by 6? Game over.

I would personally be surprised if the eventual vote margin is as high as 8 points but we should keep in mind that Biden’s lead over Trump has been very steady at around 6 points. Opinions about Trump are pretty much fixed at this point and this election is a referendum on Trump, so this is an uphill climb for Trump at a minimum.

I have to say it’s very odd how people look at a situation where by American presidential election standards Biden is obliterating Trump and come to the conclusion that he will most likely lose. I suspect this is overcompensation for 2016. It’s certainly POSSIBLE that he loses but I would be interested to know the logic process that says ‘the guy down eight points is the likely winner’, because if you didn’t know the names of the candidates there’s no way people would predict that.

I think Clinton's ultimate popular vote margin was +2.1%, while her RCP average the day before was +3.2%. Given her margin of loss in the key swing states, I think we can extrapolate that a 3% popular vote win is likely what is required here. Also, given that RCP average historically is +/-2% accuracy, we want Biden to be up by 5% or more to feel relatively safe. He could still lose if that's where he is, or win if he's a little lower, but +5% RCP is a good threshold of confidence. If +8% hold, which I highly doubt, Biden's chance to lose would certainly be under 5%, maybe under 1%.

Not sure about the other poster saying that Clinton was up only 1.5% in early June. I eyeballed it and it looks closer to about 3%. Her lead fluctuated over time considerably more than Biden's has. Was more volatile. At this time, there were more polls showing Trump leading, though they were the minority of polls. Our last poll showing Trump leading Biden was early February. That's a good sign.

As to the poster who said the popular vote polling is meaningless, he's got it in reverse. In theory, the battleground state polling should be a stronger indicator, but the quality and quantity of swing state polls is much lower than popular vote polling. Margin of accuracy is more like +/-4% but even that varies from state to state. It isn't uncommon for individual swing state polls to be off by 10, and there aren't that many of them. It's actually better to use popular vote polling which is more reliable and extrapolate from there.