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I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

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nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
5,765
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Wouldn’t this mean that all presidential election results are unknowable?

And are you saying if Trump had a 10 point lead you would be saying it was a toss up? I think that’s unlikely.
What I'm saying is that Biden will most assuredly have more total votes than Trump.

But where those votes happen to be situated are more important than the total number.

Also, Democrats can outnumber Republican voters in polls without out numbering them at the voting booth.

If I were to put money on the election now, I'd probably go with Biden at 290 EC votes...if all the voting that will happen actually does happen...right now.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
5,765
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I understand the concern,but your statement is simply not factual. It would be a statistical anomaly for what you are saying to happen. Technically true, but based on the polls (believe them or not) and the early turnout, it’s really hard to see it your way. Just take Florida. At this point, Democrats have cast almost 700,000 votes to Republicons 300,000 (I am rounding so don’t shot me for not being 100% accurate). That’s a 2 to 1 margin. Never happened in Florida before. The large percentage of votes cast almost anywhere are Democrats. If this continues, which I feel it will, your scenario will not happen. In 2016, during this time frame the race tightened. Although some called in for Clinton at 98%, there were some that raised the possibility that what happened could. I do not see that here. I expected in 2016 for Clinton to increase her lead in a October, but that never happened. Additionally, the early turnout was about 10% of what is happening now. You got to vote. Yes anything can happen, but there are not the red light flashing like in 2016. You can say they are, but they are not. Of you see them, post them as I would like to see the data too.
You're counting early-voting and absentee votes right now, and assuming that the 2:1 ratio NOW is going to extend all the way to election day.

You believe Biden is going to win with 66% in FL?
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
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You're counting early-voting and absentee votes right now, and assuming that the 2:1 ratio NOW is going to extend all the way to election day.

You believe Biden is going to win with 66% in FL?
No, but if Trump won in 2016 by roughly 133,000, then this early result could already have tipped the state.
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
8,634
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It still is about the Covid and it will be about the Covid right up through Election Day. And when the entire Donald Trump family has caught the Covid, immediate family, father, wife, and son has caught the Covid, that does not look good no matter how they spin it. Donald claiming himself some type of Superman, his wife now recovering, and son Barron supposedly having recovered isn’t the point. The point is that it happened in the first place. That is not good when Donald Trump the father thumbs his nose at Covid then he, his wife, and son come down with it. I think that is what people are thinking. That is what voters are thinking about. And people realize that the Covid is and has been keeping the economy stagnant. Voters worry that this will continue under Donald Trump, and people don’t want this to continue. There you have why Joe Biden is ahead. It’s really that simple.
 
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nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
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Trump (and Bush) have already shown that the way the votes are distributed in the electoral college favors the republicans, and that Trump can win while losing the popular vote.
Also Trump has shown that he will do all he can to contest the election should he lose. All the factors in a possible contested election (state legislatures in swing states to appoint electors, the Supreme Court, and the House (since each state gets only one vote)) also favor Trump. So the situation is not analogous.
All of that.

If this election was the same, but it was a Rmoney or Rubio and not Trump...and 2016-2020 didn't exist, then I'd be a lot more confident in Biden's "lead" in the polls as representative of the "lead" he'd have on Election Day.

Just like I was with Clinton in 2016.

Fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - won't get fooled again.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
5,765
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No, but if Trump won in 2016 by roughly 133,000, then this early result could already have tipped the state.
You're counting the state before 10% of the total votes have even been cast yet. There's close to 3 weeks to go.

This is exactly why I don't trust polls - they have zero to do with the actual ballots cast AND counted.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
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All of that.

If this election was the same, but it was a Rmoney or Rubio and not Trump...and 2016-2020 didn't exist, then I'd be a lot more confident in Biden's "lead" in the polls as representative of the "lead" he'd have on Election Day.

Just like I was with Clinton in 2016.

Fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - won't get fooled again.
Clinton’s lead was never this stable nor this large at this point in the race. I turned green about week out when I realized tRump had a very likely chance to win. On that evening I was very ill, as my dark fears came true. I do not have the same feelings. The data is not speaking like in 2016.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
16,484
2,061
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I would be interested to know what any of the people sure Biden was doomed think now. Not as a trash talking exercise - as a genuine question.
That's an easy one. Should he win, anyone with any sense will wish him good health and a solid productive presidency. To wish failure on him is to wish failure on ourselves.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,217
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You're counting the state before 10% of the total votes have even been cast yet. There's close to 3 weeks to go.

This is exactly why I don't trust polls - they have zero to do with the actual ballots cast AND counted.
Stay with me. Statistics can predict much from that 10%. If that data shows a larger sway one way, then the 90% falls in normal parameters, the result is different. I get the paranoia, but it’s not the blinking red of 2016. An 8 point lead is much different than 3.5 point lead with a polling error of 3 to 4 points. 2016 was within the polling error rate. It was right, just not the “right” we wanted.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
14,241
6,867
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Just to spell it out again.

as of tonight here are 538’s projected vote % for the day of election for the swing states
State Trump. Biden. Recent Trend
  • Arkansas 52.3% 45.5 T down slightly
  • Texas 51.1% 48.8 T down slightly
  • Iowa 50.0% 48.8 T down
  • Georgia 50.0% 50.0 B up sharply
  • Ohio 49.4% 49.6 Flat
  • North Carolina 48.4% 50.8 B up sharply
  • Arizona 47.8% 50.8 Flat
  • Florida 47.9% 51.3 Flat
  • Pennsylvania 46.4% 52.9 B up
  • Pa gives Biden 270+ EC. Votes
    Nevada 45.8% 52.6 Flat
  • Wisconsin 46% 53% B up
  • Michigan 45.5% 53.4 Flat
  • Minnesota 45% 53.4 Flat

Trump needs to take every state up to Pennsylvania to win. That means a pro Trump polling error of 0-6.5% across 6 states (or equivalent election shenanigans).

If Biden can reach 270 votes on election night it doesn’t matter if 4 battleground state’s are caught up in recounts and court battles because he’ll have multiple ways to reach 270.

This is the situation as it stands today. Tomorrow of course could change things. However if they do not change for Trump the numbers will continue to improve for a Biden as 538 has the built in assumption that Trumps numbers improve closer to Election Day. If the election were held tomorrow (and with early voting it increasingly is) Biden would gain another few tenths of a percent buffer.
 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
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Just to spell it out again.

as of tonight here are 538’s projected vote % for the day of election for the swing states
State Trump. Biden. Recent Trend
  • Arkansas 52.3% 45.5 T down slightly
  • Texas 51.1% 48.8 T down slightly
  • Iowa 50.0% 48.8 T down
  • Georgia 50.0% 50.0 B up sharply
  • Ohio 49.4% 49.6 Flat
  • North Carolina 48.4% 50.8 B up sharply
  • Arizona 47.8% 50.8 Flat
  • Florida 47.9% 51.3 Flat
  • Pennsylvania 46.4% 52.9 B up
  • Pa gives Biden 270+ EC. Votes
    Nevada 45.8% 52.6 Flat
  • Wisconsin 46% 53% B up
  • Michigan 45.5% 53.4 Flat
  • Minnesota 45% 53.4 Flat

Trump needs to take every state up to Pennsylvania to win. That means a pro Trump polling error of 0-6.5% across 6 states (or equivalent election shenanigans).

If Biden can reach 270 votes on election night it doesn’t matter if 4 battleground state’s are caught up in recounts and court battles because he’ll have multiple ways to reach 270.

This is the situation as it stands today. Tomorrow of course could change things. However if they do not change for Trump the numbers will continue to improve for a Biden as 538 has the built in assumption that Trumps numbers improve closer to Election Day. If the election were held tomorrow (and with early voting it increasingly is) Biden would gain another few tenths of a percent buffer.
I dont find that data comforting at all. 7 states are within 4%, some of them with a lot of votes. I havent counted up electoral votes, but I will take you word for it that if Trump took all the states up to Penn he would win. Coincidentally, those are the 7 states that are tied or within margin of error. Statistically, one would expect at least a few of those to go to Biden, but if there is a last minute switch to Trump (like in 2016), he could take them all. And that is not even allowing for any shenanigans with counting the votes.
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
8,634
1,013
126
Did someone mention voter anxiety?
Only 19 more days to go and voter anxiety is maxing out nation wide, and on both sides. Joe appears ahead of the game but still the polls are very close. And where Biden is comfortably ahead, democrats still remember 2016 and how off those polls were. And while the Trump rallies draw a lot of people, my own Trumpie family and relatives just don't know. They wonder if Donald Trump blew it with that debate, with getting covid, and blew it in a general way by simply losing it mentally. My Trumpie family live in iOwa, they have attended the Trump rallies however, none of them attended the latest Trump rally held yesterday October 14th. I don't know exactly why they chose not to attend but I think it was a fear of catching the Covid. The reality of covid has finally sunk in, to some extent, especially after Trump and his family caught the covid.

We just don't know if we can believe the polls, or if Joe Biden is really doing that well with the voters, or what nasty last minute surprise Donald Trump will pull out from under his orange wig. No one knows what Rudy Giuliani is up to, or what Bill Barr is up to for that matter. Voter anxiety is thru the roof and it should be. Republicans are about to stack the US Supreme Court with more Trumpie justices AND get away with doing it. Donald Trump caught the Covid and..... F-ing recovered unlike so many others. Why god? Why??? Why spare Donald Trump? And despite all of this, democrats could not impeach Trump, could not Robert Muller Trump, heck.... Democrats couldn't even take down Trump with the words from his own niece Mary Trump. So, how's the anxiety level in your neck of the woods?
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,572
5,996
136
I dont find that data comforting at all. 7 states are within 4%, some of them with a lot of votes. I havent counted up electoral votes, but I will take you word for it that if Trump took all the states up to Penn he would win. Coincidentally, those are the 7 states that are tied or within margin of error. Statistically, one would expect at least a few of those to go to Biden, but if there is a last minute switch to Trump (like in 2016), he could take them all. And that is not even allowing for any shenanigans with counting the votes.
Incorrect, Biden needs to win all states from the bottom up through PA. PA shows a margin of +6.5% for Biden. He is winning enough states by 6 or more to win the EC and the election right now. And that is assuming Trump wins all the rest.

Also, I think you're confused about "margin of error." There is very little sampling error in aggregated polling. There can be other kinds of polling errors, but we'd need a much larger variance than we saw in 2016 for Trump to win this.

I'll just trust 538's probabilistic model:

 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,572
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Good news. Lots of democrats are showing up for early in person voting, so much so that it's causing huge lines. Some have even cancelled their mail-in ballots which I've repeatedly said is a good thing.


And read the comments about why so many democrats are waiting in these long lines:

“Every time I see him on TV, my blood pressure goes up,” he said. “It just made me feel like I needed to vote this year. I don’t know why I’ve never voted before. But this year, it feels like I needed to vote.”
“Four years of Donald Trump is enough for me,” said Victor Tellesco, a 50-year-old from the Phoenix suburbs who voted for the first time in his life on Arizona’s first day of early voting last week.
“I just wanted to get out and be one of the first ones to cast my vote to hopefully end the insanity we are living in under the current administration.”
That's your dem enthusiasm right there. They don't need to be super excited about Biden to be super excited about excising the cancer of Trump.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
34,607
7,749
136
The assumption that the Trump campaign (and Trump himself) seems to have made is that low to moderate Democratic enthusiasm for Biden is what matters not the deep, nearly bottomless, reservoir of anger at Trump.

My FL resident mother produces a glare that could melt though a one inch steel plate at 50 feet when Trump comes up and has never been what I would call rabidly political. She mailed back her ballot the same day it arrived.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
14,241
6,867
146
I dont find that data comforting at all. 7 states are within 4%, some of them with a lot of votes. I havent counted up electoral votes, but I will take you word for it that if Trump took all the states up to Penn he would win. Coincidentally, those are the 7 states that are tied or within margin of error. Statistically, one would expect at least a few of those to go to Biden, but if there is a last minute switch to Trump (like in 2016), he could take them all. And that is not even allowing for any shenanigans with counting the votes.
Let me try and explain what their analysis shows a little more.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

What they are doing is aggregating all the state and national level polls with weighting for the accuracy of the different groups doing the polling.

Next they do what’s called a Monte Carlo analysis. They take all their known and estimated errors for each variable and run the analysis 10,000’s of times. This gives a look at how likely it is for any given outcome to occur. We use this same type of analysis in my job of safety / hazard analysis to help calculate risk to our crews from new engineering designs.
6A8E3EC8-1E48-4AAE-AB1F-DFA542486FC9.jpeg

Finally they don’t just average the polls for each state. They make several adjustments in part because of things they learned about in 2016. Take Pennsylvania for example:

2EDEB2C1-DC2D-4A9E-A8D2-87A69996A044.jpeg
So the weighted polling averages actually give Biden a 7.1% lead, but factoring other issues they cut it down to 6.5% In 2016 one of the biggest errors was from the difference in voting patterns by college educated White men and non-college educated white men. Pollsters have been specifically looking for this difference to account for it.

So after taking all this into account for every state they get a snake chart like this:
E09B5ACE-447E-4582-AB4C-228D67E4410D.jpeg
Biden is winning all the states in blue with GA being tied at a projected 50/50.

The Monte Carlo analysis says the most likely outcome is he wins with 346EC votes to 196.

Note this is probabilistic. It doesn’t mean Biden can’t lose, it means he’s not likely to lose if things continue the way they have.

What it does suggest to me is Biden is in a much better position than Hillary was and the combination of poll errors, voter suppression and/or cheating would have to all break against Biden across several states including ones not entirely controlled by the GOP before he’s in trouble.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
29,327
2,851
126
Is Joe really suffering from dementia? I don't typically watch Fox News, but they make a compelling point. That Joe might not be fit (mentally) to run our country.
Joe is old as heck, it is true, but did you watch the debate?
He did alright there. Good enough to pass the test, IMO.

Plus... this is America. Joe isn't running to be dictator in chief. There is a Vice President for a reason and I fully expect Joe to not serve a complete term. We have a process in place, and I am confident we will use it. So I do not feel bad using Joe to oust Trump. It has to be done.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
26,885
1,621
126
The assumption that the Trump campaign (and Trump himself) seems to have made is that low to moderate Democratic enthusiasm for Biden is what matters not the deep, nearly bottomless, reservoir of anger at Trump.

My FL resident mother produces a glare that could melt though a one inch steel plate at 50 feet when Trump comes up and has never been what I would call rabidly political. She mailed back her ballot the same day it arrived.
Bonus points for the excellent description :D
 

ewdotson

Senior member
Oct 30, 2011
898
777
136
There is a Vice President for a reason and I fully expect Joe to not serve a complete term.
You keep saying this, but I really don't see it. There's basically zero percent chance of that happening without Biden winding up dead or comatose, and there's no particular reason to think that that's likely.
 

pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
6,639
2,035
136
Is Joe really suffering from dementia? I don't typically watch Fox News, but they make a compelling point. That Joe might not be fit (mentally) to run our country.


Seriously? "Compelling"?

The choice is between him and a guy who clearly has had serious mental issues his entire life, even before the ravages of age kicked in.

I am _not_ particularly impressed with Biden, but given the choice on offer, impugning his mental sharpness is just ridiculous as a line-of-attack.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
15,721
3,318
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The polls are too close in big swing states like OH, PA and FL. A big turnout by Trumphumpers on election day can change everything.
Heard a story that in Ohio and maybe PA, that there are more republican first time voters registered than democrats by 2-1. That probably isn't reflected in the polls.

Correction: Just heard it again, the states are FL, PA, and NC. New registrations by party are a 2-1 advantage for Trump. These are all states Trump won by less than 5%.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
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Heard a story that in Ohio and maybe PA, that there are more republican first time voters registered than democrats by 2-1. That probably isn't reflected in the polls.
It is reflected. The one place it might not be would be in the likely voter screens and in that case you would see a large LV/RV voter split. We don't though.
 
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