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I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

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nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
5,765
3,664
136
They're all adults, if they choose to play a stupid game they'll sure as hell win a stupid prize. Who am I to deny them the opportunity?
As far as leaving a mess goes, I'm sure it won't be something Joe can't handle.
You still don't understand what a communicable disease is, eh?

Unless you think all of those adults winning "a stupid prize" are going to self-quarantine for 14 days after going to a Superspreader Event, then they aren't just winning "a stupid prize", they're intentionally acting as vectors for a disease that has already killed 200,000+ Americans.

Not that I expect you to give a fuck about anyone but yourself. You are, after all, a True US Conservative.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
They're all adults, if they choose to play a stupid game they'll sure as hell win a stupid prize. Who am I to deny them the opportunity?
As far as leaving a mess goes, I'm sure it won't be something Joe can't handle.


Yeh, but they won't keep the stupid prize to themselves, in all likelihood. It's utterly depraved for Trump to provide them with the opportunity, anyway, knowing full well how they act. Now that he's personally immune, he really DGAF, huh? And yet the poor fools who show up imagine that he does.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
Right!

but I would still argue that this election needs historically large margins of victory so that attempting legal and illegal shenanigans are moot.
I don't think that will be a problem. I think Trump has way too many losing combinations to prevail. There will be great raving & recounting that will come to naught for Trump because he just won't have the votes where they matter the most. It may well turn into a blowout, & I hope it does.
 
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ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
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Of course the Biden campaign is going to say it’s close - if everyone thinks it’s in the bag then maybe people don’t vote. They would be insane to say ‘we are way ahead, we’ve got this!’

As of now Biden’s lead in the tipping point state is now greater than the largest polling error ever recorded in a presidential race. He’s looking very strong.
Did you even listen to the clip? It was the MSNBC commentator saying how close the race might be, not only Biden's campaign. And their points are exactly those made already in this thread, that especially in swing states, registration is surging in Trump's demographic, and Biden's margin in most of the swing states is around 4 points or less.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
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Did you even listen to the clip? It was the MSNBC commentator saying how close the race might be, not only Biden's campaign. And their points are exactly those made already in this thread, that especially in swing states, registration is surging in Trump's demographic, and Biden's margin in most of the swing states is around 4 points or less.
Yes I listened to the clip and what I said is completely correct.

As far as Biden’s margin in the swing states being 4 points or less this is simply factually inaccurate. In PA, the current tipping point state, according to 538 Biden is up by 7 points. As far as the ‘surging registration’ goes that should show up in a split between RV and LV polls then and it does not.


Again, ask yourself if Trump was up by 7 in the state that would put him over the top would you be claiming the race was really close? I sincerely doubt it. This indicates you are engaging in motivated reasoning.
 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
106
Yes I listened to the clip and what I said is completely correct.

As far as Biden’s margin in the swing states being 4 points or less this is simply factually inaccurate. In PA, the current tipping point state, according to 538 Biden is up by 7 points. As far as the ‘surging registration’ goes that should show up in a split between RV and LV polls then and it does not.


Again, ask yourself if Trump was up by 7 in the state that would put him over the top would you be claiming the race was really close? I sincerely doubt it. This indicates you are engaging in motivated reasoning.
No, it indicates I think there could be a last minute surge to Trump, and/or the polls are underestimating the number of Trump voters. You do remember 2016, right?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
136
No, it indicates I think there could be a last minute surge to Trump, and/or the polls are underestimating the number of Trump voters. You do remember 2016, right?
The polls were accurate within just over 1 point in 2016.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
34,607
7,749
136
The last time he predicted this...well lets just say if I were a vulnerable Senate Republican I'd be firing out resumes to lobbying shops.


Screen Shot 2020-10-16 at 7.28.07 AM.png
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
11,638
937
126
The assumption that the Trump campaign (and Trump himself) seems to have made is that low to moderate Democratic enthusiasm for Biden is what matters not the deep, nearly bottomless, reservoir of anger at Trump.

My FL resident mother produces a glare that could melt though a one inch steel plate at 50 feet when Trump comes up and has never been what I would call rabidly political. She mailed back her ballot the same day it arrived.
Kind of reminds of a story in the Woodward book where Mattis' 90-something yo mother calls him up and berates him for agreeing to work for "that man."

As far as polls go, I can't stop remembering Hillary had an approximately 90% chance to win in 2016. This time, however, it looking like a much stronger turnout.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
34,607
7,749
136
As far as polls go, I can't stop remembering Hillary had an approximately 90% chance to win in 2016. This time, however, it looking like a much stronger turnout.
Yes, Democrats were certainly not mobbing the polls like they are giving out free cars in 2016 as is happening now.
 
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ewdotson

Senior member
Oct 30, 2011
898
777
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As far as polls go, I can't stop remembering Hillary had an approximately 90% chance to win in 2016. This time, however, it looking like a much stronger turnout.
It's important, I would argue, that one shouldn't conflate the polls with pundit's interpretations of the polls. 538 did pretty ok (it'd be a problem if events with a 30% chance of happening *didn't* ever occur), others did pretty terribly. But while lessons were hopefully learned all-around (including yes, with the polls too - 538 has a nice article on this topic), they're not quite the same thing.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
No, it indicates I think there could be a last minute surge to Trump, and/or the polls are underestimating the number of Trump voters. You do remember 2016, right?
Every election is unique. Lots of people were willing to take a chance on Trump in 2016. Lots of people said "she'll win anyway". Now we all know what we'll be getting if he's re-elected. It's hard to imagine that all the people who voted for Trump once still think it was a good idea. Trump needs every one of them & more if he's to prevail against a very fired up opposition. I don't think he'll make a comeback staging pandemic superspreader events all over the country but he's doing it anyway, throwing his deranged psychopathy right in our faces.
 

gothuevos

Member
Jul 28, 2010
71
3
71
No, it indicates I think there could be a last minute surge to Trump, and/or the polls are underestimating the number of Trump voters. You do remember 2016, right?
Everyone seems to gloss over this important point...GOP voter registration is outpacing the Dems in nearly all the key swing states...where Biden's lead is already slim and just within the margin of error.

Everyone is making the same mistake as 2016, all over again. I bet Biden wins the popular vote by at least 5 mil, but loses all the key swing states again. GOP voter registration in Florida, NC and PA is greatly outpacing the Dems. He probably wins those 3 in addition to Ohio. Does picking up the rust belt and maybe AZ get Biden to 270?

IMO there are going to be a lot of shocked/disappointed people again.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
136
Everyone seems to gloss over this important point...GOP voter registration is outpacing the Dems in nearly all the key swing states...where Biden's lead is already slim and just within the margin of error.

Everyone is making the same mistake as 2016, all over again. I bet Biden wins the popular vote by at least 5 mil, but loses all the key swing states again. GOP voter registration in Florida, NC and PA is greatly outpacing the Dems. He probably wins those 3 in addition to Ohio. Does picking up the rust belt and maybe AZ get Biden to 270?

IMO there are going to be a lot of shocked/disappointed people again.
Your claim is that increased voter registration is going to pick Trump up SEVEN points in PA? Biden’s lead in the polling average there is well outside the margin of error. In addition, if GOP registrations of new voters are so significant why don’t we see a split between registered voter polls and polls with a likely voter screen?

If you can’t answer those two questions then your argument has some problems.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
60,817
4,259
126
People still have not wrapped their head around the idea that Trump won on 90k votes split between 3 states. Variables like that are why we have margins of error. Trumps win in 2016 is only amazing when you look at the absolute narrowest of wins in a couple states. You can thank the winner take all mechanic of the Electoral College for making it look more significant than it was.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
34,607
7,749
136
Voter registration figures are to some degree a lagging indicator of partisanship. People who voted Trump in the last election officially swinging their party affiliation etc. The consensus view still is that as a candidate you'd much rather be ahead in the polls than pointing to registration figures while behind.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
136
People still have not wrapped their head around the idea that Trump won on 90k votes split between 3 states. Variables like that are why we have margins of error. Trumps win in 2016 is only amazing when you look at the absolute narrowest of wins in a couple states. You can thank the winner take all mechanic of the Electoral College for making it look more significant than it was.
Yes, his margin of victory was basically the thinnest you could possibly have. If someone suspects ANY erosion in the margins between Trump and Biden as compared to Clinton, Trump probably loses.
 

gothuevos

Member
Jul 28, 2010
71
3
71
Your claim is that increased voter registration is going to pick Trump up SEVEN points in PA? Biden’s lead in the polling average there is well outside the margin of error. In addition, if GOP registrations of new voters are so significant why don’t we see a split between registered voter polls and polls with a likely voter screen?

If you can’t answer those two questions then your argument has some problems.
Assuming the margins hold, I guess Biden could win with the slimmest of margins if he picks back up the Rust Belt and holds onto PA, while still losing NC, FL, OH and even AZ. Of course all this means nothing if either candidate gains/loses one of the above states.

Even then, Trump almost certainly contests a close loss in the courts. All it would take is one state legislature to overturn their results and/or SC involvement.

Either way, looks like Trump is winning again.
 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
106
Every election is unique. Lots of people were willing to take a chance on Trump in 2016. Lots of people said "she'll win anyway". Now we all know what we'll be getting if he's re-elected. It's hard to imagine that all the people who voted for Trump once still think it was a good idea. Trump needs every one of them & more if he's to prevail against a very fired up opposition. I don't think he'll make a comeback staging pandemic superspreader events all over the country but he's doing it anyway, throwing his deranged psychopathy right in our faces.
Yes, but unbelievably, there are also some people who voted for Trump in 2016 with some trepidation, who now think he is the "greatest President ever", never lies, and has kept all his promises.
I dont know how large this group is (or how they manage to come to that conclusion), but I know some people personally who feel this way, and have read interviews about others who felt the same way.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
60,817
4,259
126
Assuming the margins hold, I guess Biden could win with the slimmest of margins if he picks back up the Rust Belt and holds onto PA, while still losing NC, FL, OH and even AZ. Of course all this means nothing if either candidate gains/loses one of the above states.

Even then, Trump almost certainly contests a close loss in the courts. All it would take is one state legislature to overturn their results and/or SC involvement.

Either way, looks like Trump is winning again.
So in summary...

PLEASE JUST VOTE AND DON'T LEAVE THIS UP FOR POLITICAL FUCKERY

VOTE!
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
136
Assuming the margins hold, I guess Biden could win with the slimmest of margins if he picks back up the Rust Belt and holds onto PA, while still losing NC, FL, OH and even AZ. Of course all this means nothing if either candidate gains/loses one of the above states.

Even then, Trump almost certainly contests a close loss in the courts. All it would take is one state legislature to overturn their results and/or SC involvement.

Either way, looks like Trump is winning again.
While I think a state legislature attempting to overturn the will of the voters is a nonzero threat we should be aware of, saying this is the likely outcome is kind of absurd.

The most likely answer is that the polls are broadly correct and Biden wins a fairly convincing victory. It’s not certain, but it’s the most likely answer.

One other thing people often overlook is that the margin of error goes both ways. For understandable reasons people are primarily concerned with the polls being wrong in Biden’s favor as it could make Trump win but equally statistically likely is that they are biased towards Trump, leading to an epic Biden blowout.
 
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gothuevos

Member
Jul 28, 2010
71
3
71
While I think a state legislature attempting to overturn the will of the voters is a nonzero threat we should be aware of, saying this is the likely outcome is kind of absurd.

The most likely answer is that the polls are broadly correct and Biden wins a fairly convincing victory. It’s not certain, but it’s the most likely answer.

One other thing people often overlook is that the margin of error goes both ways. For understandable reasons people are primarily concerned with the polls being wrong in Biden’s favor as it could make Trump win but equally statistically likely is that they are biased towards Trump, leading to an epic Biden blowout.
Except most polls slightly oversample Democrats, so if anything, you should have it in Trump's favor just to be safe.
 

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