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I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
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Except most polls slightly oversample Democrats, so if anything, you should have it in Trump's favor just to be safe.
This is not accurate and partisan identification is an output, not a input. If you're weighting your sample based by party ID you're doing it wrong because party ID changes over time. This was the error that the 'unskewed polls' guy made in 2012 when he convinced himself (and plenty of wishful conservatives) that the polls showing Obama's victory were wrong because they were oversampling Democrats.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
60,817
4,259
126
Except most polls slightly oversample Democrats, so if anything, you should have it in Trump's favor just to be safe.
Newsflash, we actually have a majority leaning democrat. Years of systemic ratfucking has artificially inflated GOP representation over what it actually is. That's not oversampling.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
Yes, but unbelievably, there are also some people who voted for Trump in 2016 with some trepidation, who now think he is the "greatest President ever", never lies, and has kept all his promises.
I dont know how large this group is (or how they manage to come to that conclusion), but I know some people personally who feel this way, and have read interviews about others who felt the same way.
So what? People often double down on a mistake. That's not true of everybody, which is what Trump needs to prevail. The polls indicate that's simply not true. There was a lot of wavering & undecidedness in 2016 in which Trump came out on top. There isn't much of that now. There was also 2018, when we'd have likely tossed him out if given the opportunity.

So, uhh, how many pandemic superspreader rallies do you think he can stage over the next 17 days? Will nobody notice how horrifyingly insane that really is?
 

alexruiz

Platinum Member
Sep 21, 2001
2,669
274
126
Everyone seems to gloss over this important point...GOP voter registration is outpacing the Dems in nearly all the key swing states...where Biden's lead is already slim and just within the margin of error.

Everyone is making the same mistake as 2016, all over again. I bet Biden wins the popular vote by at least 5 mil, but loses all the key swing states again. GOP voter registration in Florida, NC and PA is greatly outpacing the Dems. He probably wins those 3 in addition to Ohio. Does picking up the rust belt and maybe AZ get Biden to 270?

IMO there are going to be a lot of shocked/disappointed people again.
Do you understand what "margin of error" is, or do you just parrot faux news?
In the states that Biden needs to go beyond 270 EC votes, he is leading by well over margin of error. The tipping point right now is PA, he is leading by close to 8%, well outside margin of error.
States like OH, GA, FL, IA, NC even TX are just dessert.

As far as oversampling democrats, I am of the idea that it is the opposite. A lot of pollsters want to avoid a repeat of 2016, do they are overcompensating with more potential repugnants.
Is it still possible for the orange slime ball to pull the win? Absolutely! That is why the polls are "estimates"
However, something that statistics cannot account for are human factors, like voter turnout. While the trumpsters argue that the base is fired up, they DO NOT realize that for every one of them, there is at least one of us fired up to kick him out.

BTW, the only huevos you have are Putin's, in your mouth, same as your orange leader.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
136
Can you not post completely baseless garbage? Thanks.
The idea that for profit polling firms consistently make such an elementary error that directly impacts their reputation and therefore the viability of their business seems weird to me.

If that were an actual issue you think one pollster would just stop doing it and gain a huge advantage.
 

ecogen

Golden Member
Dec 24, 2016
1,123
1,098
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The idea that for profit polling firms consistently make such an elementary error that directly impacts their reputation and therefore the viability of their business seems weird to me.

If that were an actual issue you think one pollster would just stop doing it and gain a huge advantage.
That's nice, but some people say that most polls slightly oversample Democrats, so if anything, you should have it in Trump's favor just to be safe.

Basic stuff.
 

eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
5,250
357
126
CNN just gave current EC estimate. Just taking states with a +5 advantage, it's at 279 for Biden. So no 77,000 vote difference will allow Trumpity Dumpity to steal it this time.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,217
1,246
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I think is the best example of the possible outcomes to this election. Decide for yourself. This is a graphic from 538 that is a product of doing almost 50,000 simulations.
 
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Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
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That's a very tall definition of "Landslide". Biden can win a landslide in the EC with a much smaller margin.
 

Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
7,574
1,490
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Did you even listen to the clip? It was the MSNBC commentator saying how close the race might be, not only Biden's campaign. And their points are exactly those made already in this thread, that especially in swing states, registration is surging in Trump's demographic, and Biden's margin in most of the swing states is around 4 points or less.
The thing is, though, most of the "swing" states are on Trump's side of 270. Never before would Texas be talked about as a swing state.
 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,567
445
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I think is the best example of the possible outcomes to this election. Decide for yourself. This is a graphic from 538 that is a product of doing almost 50,000 simulations.
Dont see a number for Biden wins popular vote and EC, or Biden wins popular vote and Trump wins EC. These are the two most likely options by far IMO.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
69,454
17,824
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Dont see a number for Biden wins popular vote and EC, or Biden wins popular vote and Trump wins EC. These are the two most likely options by far IMO.
It is a collection of unlikely events. Biden winning the popular vote and the EC is judged at 87% right now by 538.

Biden winning the popular vote and Trump winning the EC is on there though. It’s currently rated at an 8% chance. Very unlikely, but not impossible.
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
8,634
1,013
126
And yet another episode from my Trumpie family....
They admit, they are depressed. They are terrified that Trump will lose (all the signs point to that) and afraid Joe Biden will win. SO as if covid and lockups and mass unemployment wasn't enough depression for them, now they are depressed fearing that Joe Biden will win. I don't say anything BUT I'M THINKING... I'm thinking, gee... maybe if you hadn't signed onto a reality TV game show host circus clown as your leader and now you are depressed that your little clown is not preforming, maybe you would not be so depressed. You get what you pay for, or sign up with.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,743
12,689
136
And... the crazy motherfucker sponsored three covid parties today. He did one in Ft Myers so he could tell seniors how he's got them covered wrt the pandemic. He summoned a brigade of maskless fools to squeeze in together & share their germs just to tell them. It's criminal insanity.


 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
8,937
345
126
Texas has a record level of voter registration. 78% of all eligible voters are registered. We have had three day’s of record turn out.
 
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MrPickins

Diamond Member
May 24, 2003
8,826
201
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Texas has a record level of voter registration. 78% of all eligible voters are registered. We have had three day’s of record turn out.
And 97% in Travis county (Home of the blueberry that is Austin).

 

skyking

Lifer
Nov 21, 2001
19,046
738
136
And... the crazy motherfucker sponsored three covid parties today. He did one in Ft Myers so he could tell seniors how he's got them covered wrt the pandemic. He summoned a brigade of maskless fools to squeeze in together & share their germs just to tell them. It's criminal insanity.


He has them covered all right....his latest idea, free MAGA shrouds at your funeral.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
7,760
4,740
136
Texas has a record level of voter registration. 78% of all eligible voters are registered. We have had three day’s of record turn out.
Republicans have to be worried if that translates to votes. I know districting in Texas favors smaller towns, but I suspect the GOP wasn't counting on this kind of participation.
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,572
5,996
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That's a very tall definition of "Landslide". Biden can win a landslide in the EC with a much smaller margin.
A tall definition indeed, which makes it that much more remarkable that Biden has a 36% chance to achieve it. Biden could easily win the PV by 10 or more. Think about that.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
8,937
345
126
Republicans have to be worried if that translates to votes. I know districting in Texas favors smaller towns, but I suspect the GOP wasn't counting on this kind of participation.
They are worried which is why they restrict mail in votes, limit mail in drop boxes, and now are restricting curb side voting. They are trying to make it as difficult as possible to vote by any means other than in person.

I’m going to laugh my ass off if this backfires on them and the majority of the GOP voters wait till Election Day and many don’t end up voting. Texas still leads the nation in daily cases. We are going to be full on surging by election day(hospitilzations have already double in the last week).
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
7,760
4,740
136
They are worried which is why they restrict mail in votes, limit mail in drop boxes, and now are restricting curb side voting. They are trying to make it as difficult as possible to vote by any means other than in person.

I’m going to laugh my ass off if this backfires on them and the majority of the GOP voters wait till Election Day and many don’t end up voting. Texas still leads the nation in daily cases. We are going to be full on surging by election day(hospitilzations have already double in the last week).
I hadn't thought about the potential for this to backfire on Republicans. I'm certainly not counting on it, but there would be a tremendous irony if GOP voters in contentious districts complained about the difficulty of voting and wound up with a low turnout.
 

MrSquished

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2013
7,044
1,865
136
CNN just gave current EC estimate. Just taking states with a +5 advantage, it's at 279 for Biden. So no 77,000 vote difference will allow Trumpity Dumpity to steal it this time.
277 is too close a win.
 

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