I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[fskimospy]

I really wish Biden would stop desperately trying to lose any support he might have in order to court the mythical undecided voter

If by ‘undecided’ voters you mean voters who switch between parties from election to election not only are they extremely real, they account for far more than Trump’s entire margin of victory in the crucial states in 2016.

People usually think exciting the base is all that matters. This is badly wrong because when you do something to excite your own base you also excite the opposing base - hence the massive wave against Trump. Appealing to swing voters is where you can make real margins.

edit: I used to think the same way you do until I looked at the evidence and found out I was just completely wrong.

 

[Jhhnn]

I really wish Biden would stop desperately trying to lose any support he might have in order to court the mythical undecided voter

Now explain how he's doing that.

 

[KMFJD]

Now explain how he's doing that.

will vote down medicare for all, against police reform (even made a joke about this shit -shoot them in the knees not the head hahahaha), pretty much had an old republican reunion at the dnc

 

[Jhhnn]

will vote down medicare for all, against police reform (even made a joke about this shit -shoot them in the knees not the head hahahaha), pretty much had an old republican reunion at the dnc

That's dishonest. Biden is very much in favor of reforming the police along with the rest of the justice system.

The White House

President Biden and Vice President Harris promised to move quickly to deliver results for working families. That’s what they’ve done.

joebiden.com

Read it. You might learn something.

 

[Ajay]

I really wish Biden would stop desperately trying to lose any support he might have in order to court the mythical undecided voter

There are swing voters - we saw that with folks who voted for Obama and then Trump. Which particular part do you thing was pandering to the 'undecided' voter?

 

[ondma]

If by ‘undecided’ voters you mean voters who switch between parties from election to election not only are they extremely real, they account for far more than Trump’s entire margin of victory in the crucial states in 2016.

People usually think exciting the base is all that matters. This is badly wrong because when you do something to excite your own base you also excite the opposing base - hence the massive wave against Trump. Appealing to swing voters is where you can make real margins.

edit: I used to think the same way you do until I looked at the evidence and found out I was just completely wrong.

The Dems dont really have a "base" though, unlike Trump. Even though they have held unity together pretty well so far, Biden is put in a difficult spot by having to not alienate the liberal wing of the party while also trying to win over the considerably more conservative undecided voters. Trump OTOH has basically the entire Republican party either buying into his agenda or intimidated into supporting him. All he has to do is appear somewhat rational often enough to convince a few undecideds that although they may not like him, they will vote for him because they like the Democrats agenda even less.

 

[Paratus]

I really wish Biden would stop desperately trying to lose any support he might have in order to court the mythical undecided voter

well maybe Joe is expecting to make up the difference from the military vote Trump is throwing away.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/08/poll-troops-prefer-biden-over-trump.html


According to a poll released Monday, however, Trump does not even have the support of the most canonically tough and patriotic demographic group in American politics: the troops. According to the Military Times, active-duty U.S. service members say they are planning, by a margin of 43.1 percent to 37.4 percent, to vote for Joe Biden over Trump. The incumbent president’s approval rating with service members stands at 38 percent, with 50 percent disapproving.

This line from the Military Times’ write-up captures why this result, for Trump, is Quite Bad:

About 40 percent of troops surveyed identified as Republican or Libertarian, 16 percent Democrats, and 44 percent independent or another party.

The individuals polled were for the most part not partisan Democrats; 93 percent of them were white. It does not seem like a great speculative leap to say that the Military Times surveyed a voter cohort that is one of the most receptive imaginable to traditional GOP messages about law and order. Biden still won that cohort by 6 points.

 

[KMFJD]

That's dishonest. Biden is very much in favor of reforming the police along with the rest of the justice system.

The White House

President Biden and Vice President Harris promised to move quickly to deliver results for working families. That’s what they’ve done.

joebiden.com

Read it. You might learn something.

a lot of great ideas about laws and rehabilitation/prisons, not very many good ones in regards to reforming the police

there was the bit about getting social workers instead of police to deal with certain problems, that's a great idea, the sooner the better

Expand and use the power of the U.S. Justice Department to address systemic misconduct in police departments and prosecutors’ offices...

and more money for cops.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[NostaSeronx]

well maybe Joe is expecting to make up the difference from the military vote Trump is throwing away.

Military times poll overall however doesn't reflect actual election potential.

2008:
McCain 68%
Obama 23%

9,550,193 <== Popular vote difference going Obama to McCain.

2012:
Romney 66%
Obama 26%

4,982,291 <== Popular vote difference going Obama to Romney

2016:
Donald Trump 37.6%
Gary Johnson 36.5%
Hilary Clinton 16.3%
Jill Stein 1.2%

2,868,686 <== Popular vote difference going Clinton to Trump
58,495,487 <== Popular vote difference going Trump to Johnson.
Jill Stein is pretty close to the actual result of 1.07%.

Having Joe Biden win in Military Times now isn't good relative to previous polls.

 

[ivwshane]

will vote down medicare for all, against police reform (even made a joke about this shit -shoot them in the knees not the head hahahaha), pretty much had an old republican reunion at the dnc

He also didn't say he'd vote down Medicare for all, unless it created uncertainty and insecurity, or it it significantly raised taxes for the middle class.

 

[fskimospy]

Military times poll overall however doesn't reflect actual election potential.

2008:
McCain 68%
Obama 23%

9,550,193 <== Popular vote difference going Obama to McCain.

2012:
Romney 66%
Obama 26%

4,982,291 <== Popular vote difference going Obama to Romney

2016:
Donald Trump 37.6%
Gary Johnson 36.5%
Hilary Clinton 16.3%
Jill Stein 1.2%

2,868,686 <== Popular vote difference going Clinton to Trump
58,495,487 <== Popular vote difference going Trump to Johnson.
Jill Stein is pretty close to the actual result of 1.07%.

Having Joe Biden win in Military Times now isn't good relative to previous polls.

This is not how the math works. At all.

 

[NostaSeronx]

This is not how the math works. At all.

How so... the actual results compared to MilTimes have Obama absolutely destroying McCain and Romney.

>9 Mil extra for 2008 has Obama winning, where in MilTimes has McCain winning by a huge margin.
>4.9 mil extra for 2012 has Obama winning, where in MilTimes has Romney winning by a huge margin.

2016 operates mostly the same with the Libertarian candidate being competitive with the Republican candidate.
However, in actuality the election had >2.8 mil more people for Clinton than Donald Trump, and the distance between Trump and Johnson is massive.

A - B = C for difference.
Add McCain/Romney's number with the difference to get Obama's numbers. It is how math works, it is basically an axiom.

 

[fskimospy]

How so... the actual results compared to MilTimes have Obama absolutely destroying McCain and Romney.

>9 Mil extra for 2008 has Obama winning, where in MilTimes has McCain winning by a huge margin.
>4.9 mil extra for 2012 has Obama winning, where in MilTimes has Romney winning by a huge margin.

2016 operates mostly the same with the Libertarian candidate being competitive with the Republican candidate.
However it in actually the election had >2.8 mil more people for Clinton than Donald Trump, and the distance between Trump and Johnson is massive.

A - B = C for difference.
Add McCain/Romney's number with the difference to get Obama's numbers. It is how math works, it is basically an axiom.

This presumes the military vote is a representative sample of the overall population, which it is not, and the military times never claimed it was.

What the military times is measuring is shifts in a subsample of the population. Relative shifts in subsamples are relevant to understanding the population as a whole.

 

[ewdotson]

If by ‘undecided’ voters you mean voters who switch between parties from election to election not only are they extremely real, they account for far more than Trump’s entire margin of victory in the crucial states in 2016.

People usually think exciting the base is all that matters. This is badly wrong because when you do something to excite your own base you also excite the opposing base - hence the massive wave against Trump. Appealing to swing voters is where you can make real margins.

edit: I used to think the same way you do until I looked at the evidence and found out I was just completely wrong.

I think the other problem is that if one were to try to define the Democratic base, I don't think it would be realistic to do so as the ultra-left contingent. I mean, it certainly *is* worth talking about Black voter turnout, which is a huge part of the Dems' base … but that demographic largely went to Biden in the primaries.

 

[Stokely]

Let's say Joe Biden is just basically a Republican. He's running against Trump, so you are voting for a regular Republican against Trump, who is in a class by himself.

You can look at Biden's (or any Democrat who might have gotten the nomination) platform and compare to Trump's--they are NOT the same. Now, you may be a person who looks at all those differences and says, "those don't matter to me." So be it. But they are not the same.

Consider:
- Who is going to be in the Supreme Court over the next few decades
- Who might be called upon to head up various departments like State, Defense, HUD, Education, EPA etc. Can they be worse that Trump's clowns? I don't think that is possible even if you picked random citizens.
- Even if we do NOTHING about climate change, that will be a big improvement.
- Pretty sure the trend of removing environmental, consumer protection and safety regulations by Trump (especially those put in by Obama) will stop. I'm all for making sure a regulation is needed, or fixing one that is overbearing, but we shouldn't just remove them just because business interests want to make more money right now.
- Our reputation around the world can start to repair as we engage in normal relations with the world instead of pretending we are better than everyone. It's a global economy, we need to work with other nations.
- No more destructive pissy trade wars
- Maybe emboldened racists will go back under their rocks once their role model is gone. In general, it will be nice to have someone--anyone--in the office who isn't embarrassing us with juvenile quotes and tweets constantly.
- I'd like to have a reasonable pandemic response. This one isn't difficult. Listen to experts, make nice speeches, profit. Trump has managed to spectacularly fail at crisis management, which should surprise nobody based on his history. If he can't bully or sue his way past an obstacle, he fails.

But hey, if Biden isn't your perfect candidate, stay home and do your bit for helping Trump get back in. "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice" as Rush sang. I guess you live your live by this must-be-perfect mantra? Job making you sit in a spot you don't like, find another one....car has a scratch, trade it in...kid won't sleep all night, put him up for adoption (who am I kidding, these purity warriors don't have kids). Must be nice to always get things exactly like you like it!

 

[Indus]

There are swing voters - we saw that with folks who voted for Obama and then Trump. Which particular part do you thing was pandering to the 'undecided' voter?

Suburban Trump 2016 voter has a message for the President - CNN Video

2016 Trump voter Mary Anderson tells CNN's Brianna Keilar what she needs to see from President Trump to secure her vote in November.

www.cnn.com

And they're still stuck on Trump because Biden has dementia.

 

[K1052]

Suburban Trump 2016 voter has a message for the President - CNN Video

2016 Trump voter Mary Anderson tells CNN's Brianna Keilar what she needs to see from President Trump to secure her vote in November.

www.cnn.com

And they're still stuck on Trump because Biden has dementia.

LOL After four years anybody waiting for Trump to "step back" and act more "statesmanlike" and "make good decisions" is borderline delusional and in complete denial of reality.

 

[hal2kilo]

LOL After four years anybody waiting for Trump to "step back" and act more "statesmanlike" and "make good decisions" is borderline delusional and in complete denial of reality.

As been proven over and over again, it will only get worse.

 

[Indus]

LOL After four years anybody waiting for Trump to "step back" and act more "statesmanlike" and "make good decisions" is borderline delusional and in complete denial of reality.

Doesn't that sum up all Trump voters?

 

[sportage]

I still believe the status of the virus will have a lot to do with the election outcome. By November the seasonal flu should have kicked in and people will freak with confusing seasonal cold and flu symptoms with covid 19 symptoms. Especially with their kids might they get sick. Believe me, moms and dads will assume the worst when they or the kid develop a fever even though that fever is most likely the seasonal icky and not the covid. Will people freak-out enough to further question Donald Trump's handling of the virus?

As for the election itself, when I see in the news pictures of crowds of people on the beaches, at the universities, at events, in the bars, and in each photo maybe 10% are wearing face masks, I see those not wearing masks as Trump votes. We all know the people refusing to wear face masks will vote for Donald Trump. So in your average crowd of people I see at most 10% voting Joe Biden and 90+ % voting Donald Trump. Breaking it down by face masks, that is. You have to take me seriously on this because I feel this is how the election will play out. Going by the crowds and going by those not taking the pandemic seriously, that 90+ percent. We could see a Donald Trump election blowout nationwide. Another election shocker even worse than the shocker of 2016. A red electoral map similar to when Ronald Reagan swept the country and also back in 1972 when Richard Nixon swept the country. This could happen.

 

[Ajay]

Suburban Trump 2016 voter has a message for the President - CNN Video

2016 Trump voter Mary Anderson tells CNN's Brianna Keilar what she needs to see from President Trump to secure her vote in November.

www.cnn.com

And they're still stuck on Trump because Biden has dementia.

This is only anecdotal; I watch 6 suburban women answering questions on CNN this morning. All six had voted for Trump in 2016. 3 were planning on voting for Trump this year. The other three were not - they felt less safe with Trump, were tired of his racism and his inability to bring people together, etc...

 

[K1052]

This is only anecdotal; I watch 6 suburban women answering questions on CNN this morning. All six had voted for Trump in 2016. 3 were planning on voting for Trump this year. The other three were not - they felt less safe with Trump, were tired of his racism and his inability to bring people together, etc...

Some people are arguing that this election is more like 2018 than it is like 2016. They could have a point.

 

[ondma]

Actually, I see the defining issue now shifting from Covid to domestic unrest. I think this should be a concerning trend for Biden. No matter how absurd it is, Trump is projecting *his* America onto what it will be like if Biden wins, and amazingly, it seems to be an effective tactic. Biden finally addressed this a couple of day ago, but he is behind the curve in denouncing the violence. It doesnt help that most of the violence and unrest is in cities run by Democratic mayors.

Covid could of course become the dominant issue again if there is a major new outbreak, with a lot of hospitalizations and deaths. (yes, I know we are already in a major outbreak, but hospitalizations and deaths seem to be generally on the decline)

Additionally Trump is manipulating both the CDC and the FDA to minimize the cases (less testing) and force a vaccine through before the election.

 

[brycejones]

Some people are arguing that this election is more like 2018 than it is like 2016. They could have a point.

The big difference is Trump has a record at this point. He had no record of governance in 2016. Voters were not impressed in 2018 with the results of his first two years and showed up at the polls. It’s hard to argue he has improved his image or results since then.

 

[K1052]

Actually, I see the defining issue now shifting from Covid to domestic unrest. I think this should be a concerning trend for Biden. No matter how absurd it is, Trump is projecting *his* America onto what it will be like if Biden wins, and amazingly, it seems to be an effective tactic. Biden finally addressed this a couple of day ago, but he is behind the curve in denouncing the violence. It doesnt help that most of the violence and unrest is in cities run by Democratic mayors.

Covid could of course become the dominant issue again if there is a major outbreak, with a lot of hospitalizations and deaths. But Trump is manipulating both the CDC and the FDA to minimize the cases (less testing) and force a vaccine through before the election.

There is little to support this right now. I haven't seen anything lately but even after Minneapolis and Portland crime was a relatively low priority item on voter concerns well behind the economy, healthcare, COVID, and education. I want to see some hard numbers showing it's catapulted to the forefront of average voters minds.