I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[fskimospy]

They aren't going to get an improved social safety net. The democrats aren't socialists nor are they going to fix the problems in which why more Police is required.

Greens and Libertarians both act on the problems themselves, while the New Democrats/Tea Republicans kick it off till 10 years from now, then 10 years from now, then 10 years from now, then 10 years from now, ad infinitum.

I’m sure you think this is the case and you could even be right! I’m telling you that the median voter for these parties does not think this is the case though, which is why they won’t be voting Green or Libertarian.

 

[NostaSeronx]

I’m telling you that the median voter for these parties does not think this is the case though, which is why they won’t be voting Green or Libertarian.

Imho, the median voter is fatigued from major parties. They'll be preferring the Green/Libertarian party over the Dem/Repubs.

Instant a series of polls come out with Greens/Libertarians gaining momentum. Then, they'll join for the new voting paradigm which the Greens/Libertarians would give. If not for the issues the green/libertarian party target to fix.

Where the Green/Libertarian party were weak and had an increase support in 2016. They have stronger candidates and even more support in 2020. They'll be getting more significant amount votes. How much is dependent on the realization that public interests aren't a Dem/Repub thing. At most, those ideas suppressed and have plans already in place by democrats to kick those for them out.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

NostaSerox's predictions here are about as likely as his predictions in the CPU forum. By that I mean they're totally divorced from reality.

The green party in the US has zero ground game and only shows up every four years to make long-shot runs for the presidency and holds almost zero local offices.
The libertarians are fucking lunatics. In 2016 a sizable chunk at their convention booed a candidate for daring to say you don't have the right to sell heroin to a five year old.

 

[fskimospy]

Imho, the median voter is fatigued from major parties. They'll be preferring the Green/Libertarian party over the Dem/Repubs.

Instant a series of polls come out with Greens/Libertarians gaining momentum. Then, they'll join for the new voting paradigm which the Greens/Libertarians would give. If not for the issues the green/libertarian party target to fix.

Where the Green/Libertarian party were weak and had an increase support in 2016. They have stronger candidates and even more support in 2020. They'll be getting more significant amount votes. How much is dependent on the realization that public interests aren't a Dem/Repub thing. At most, those ideas suppressed and have plans already in place by democrats to kick those for them out.

I suspect you are quite wrong and will see a significant decrease in third party support vis a vis 2016.

 

[feralkid]

NostaSerox's predictions here are about as likely as his predictions in the CPU forum. By that I mean they're totally divorced from reality.

The green party in the US has zero ground game and only shows up every four years to make long-shot runs for the presidency and holds almost zero local offices.
The libertarians are fucking lunatics. In 2016 a sizable chunk at their convention booed a candidate for daring to say you don't have the right to sell heroin to a five year old.

Sigh, I never understood the appeal of forlorn hope over actionable pragmatism.


And dammit, I just used the word "actionable".

 

[shortylickens]

Imho, the median voter is fatigued from major parties. They'll be preferring the Green/Libertarian party over the Dem/Repubs.

Instant a series of polls come out with Greens/Libertarians gaining momentum. Then, they'll join for the new voting paradigm which the Greens/Libertarians would give. If not for the issues the green/libertarian party target to fix.

Where the Green/Libertarian party were weak and had an increase support in 2016. They have stronger candidates and even more support in 2020. They'll be getting more significant amount votes. How much is dependent on the realization that public interests aren't a Dem/Repub thing. At most, those ideas suppressed and have plans already in place by democrats to kick those for them out.

I would love for a Libertarian to win but that's never gonna happen. Americans are dumb animals. When it comes to voting they rely on their lizard brain, not the mammal brain. They respond to strength or the appearance of strength. Only Democrats and Republicans are gonna win. UNLESS, there's a major change in the Libertarian party and they somehow gain power and influence. That clearly isn't happening this year so, we should forget it. Maybe in 2024. With all the crazy shit thats happened the last 4 years its not outside reality.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

I would love for a Libertarian to win but that's never gonna happen. Americans are dumb animals. When it comes to voting they rely on their lizard brain, not the mammal brain. They respond to strength or the appearance of strength. Only Democrats and Republicans are gonna win. UNLESS, there's a major change in the Libertarian party and they somehow gain power and influence. That clearly isn't happening this year so, we should forget it. Maybe in 2024. With all the crazy shit thats happened the last 4 years its not outside reality.

See the link in my post above. The Libertarian Party in the US is non-viable because it's run and stocked by complete nutcases. In 2016 a male, overweight, middle-aged delegate did a strip tease at the convention, for crying out loud. Until they get a brain (hard for hardcore libertarians, else they wouldn't be hardcore libertarians), they're going nowhere, fast.

Honestly, does anyone even know who their nominee/front-runner is?

 

[hal2kilo]

I would love for a Libertarian to win but that's never gonna happen. Americans are dumb animals. When it comes to voting they rely on their lizard brain, not the mammal brain. They respond to strength or the appearance of strength. Only Democrats and Republicans are gonna win. UNLESS, there's a major change in the Libertarian party and they somehow gain power and influence. That clearly isn't happening this year so, we should forget it. Maybe in 2024. With all the crazy shit thats happened the last 4 years its not outside reality.

It's OK, you can move to a state the sells marijuana legally now.

 

[NostaSeronx]

I suspect you are quite wrong and will see a significant decrease in third party support vis a vis 2016.

I suspect you don't see the trend.
52.93% -> 51.06% -> 48.18%
45.65% -> 47.20% -> 46.09%
0.40% -> 0.99% -> 3.28% <== Having a female candidate will also up this count. (Jorgensen/Cohen)
0.12% -> 0.36% -> 1.07% <== With candidates and Ralph Nader supporting in the background (2.74% in 2000 for Greens) I expect this to go up. (Hawkins/Walker)

1988 -> 1992 event
"Trump’s job approval rating at this point in his presidency is lower than that of all of his recent predecessors except George H.W. Bush. The 38% of Americans who approve of Trump’s performance today compares with 29% for Bush in 1992. However, the two presidents’ disapproval rating is similar: 58% disapprove of Trump’s performance today, compared with 60% for Bush in 1992."

Low Biden enthusiasm and Low Trump enthusiasm is going to lead an uptake to these parties. If the democrats continue to suppress the left vote, they'll probably have to deal with a Libertarian funnel. Putting Ross to shame as they are already pumping out ads against Dems/Repubs.

 

[sportage]

It occurred to me....
Nearly all of the "Trump people" out there absolutely HATE being told what to do by the government, both federal and local. Like with wearing face masks and social distancing, the Donald Trump people simply HATE THIS i.e. the wearing of masks and social distancing. WELL Trump people.... if you really do HATE being told what to do or being CONTROLLED by the government(s), JUST IMAGINE how you Trump people will feel under a second term of Donald Trump? The rioting would get MUCH WORSE, and Donald Trump would either do nothing or.... LOCK YOU DOWN. Lock every American city down in a failed attempt to control the mass chaos. SO Donald Trump people, if you don't like wearing masks now, just imagine what you WILL NOT be allowed to do AND what you WILL be FORCED TO DO under another term of Donald Trump? Hell, even you the Donald Trump fans might get royally pissed off when Donald Trump starts telling you what you CAN do and what you CAN NOT do. Think about THAT.

 

[fskimospy]

I suspect you don't see the trend.
52.93% -> 51.06% -> 48.18%
45.65% -> 47.20% -> 46.09%
0.40% -> 0.99% -> 3.28% <== Having a female candidate will also up this count. (Jorgensen/Cohen)
0.12% -> 0.36% -> 1.07% <== With candidates and Ralph Nader supporting in the background (2.74% in 2000 for Greens) I expect this to go up. (Hawkins/Walker)

1988 -> 1992 event
"Trump’s job approval rating at this point in his presidency is lower than that of all of his recent predecessors except George H.W. Bush. The 38% of Americans who approve of Trump’s performance today compares with 29% for Bush in 1992. However, the two presidents’ disapproval rating is similar: 58% disapprove of Trump’s performance today, compared with 60% for Bush in 1992."

Low Biden enthusiasm and Low Trump enthusiasm is going to lead an uptake to these parties. If the democrats continue to suppress the left vote, they'll probably have to deal with a Libertarian funnel. Putting Ross to shame as they are already pumping out ads against Dems/Repubs.

That’s not much of a trend, haha. I bet if you throw a couple more elections in there it becomes nonexistent even.

Regardless, high degrees of negative partisanship will lead to a decline in third party voting in 2020. I would bet money on this.

 

[fskimospy]

See the link in my post above. The Libertarian Party in the US is non-viable because it's run and stocked by complete nutcases. In 2016 a male, overweight, middle-aged delegate did a strip tease at the convention, for crying out loud. Until they get a brain (hard for hardcore libertarians, else they wouldn't be hardcore libertarians), they're going nowhere, fast.

Honestly, does anyone even know who their nominee/front-runner is?

In my experience people think they like libertarianism right up to the point they learn what libertarianism really is.

 

[Jhhnn]

I would love for a Libertarian to win but that's never gonna happen. Americans are dumb animals. When it comes to voting they rely on their lizard brain, not the mammal brain. They respond to strength or the appearance of strength. Only Democrats and Republicans are gonna win. UNLESS, there's a major change in the Libertarian party and they somehow gain power and influence. That clearly isn't happening this year so, we should forget it. Maybe in 2024. With all the crazy shit thats happened the last 4 years its not outside reality.

Your first sentence verifies the second.

 

[Jhhnn]

In my experience people think they like libertarianism right up to the point they learn what libertarianism really is.

Yeh, but truthiness can still carry the day. Libertopianism is whatever you want it to be.

 

[Ajay]

For once we mostly agree.
The Democrat Party really needs to sell fear better because it works as seen by your poll.

Yeah, after being against this for a while, I really think we need speak the truth of how damaging Trump is to our nation, civil discourse and constitution.
Obama's speech gives us a blueprint on how to start. Maybe Dems should start openly calling him the Orange Menace or something like that.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Yeah, after being against this for a while, I really think we need speak the truth of how damaging Trump is to our nation, civil discourse and constitution.
Obama's speech gives us a blueprint on how to start. Maybe Dems should start openly calling him the Orange Menace or something like that.

Welcome aboard, I am glad you have changed your mind.

 

[shortylickens]

It's OK, you can move to a state the sells marijuana legally now.

Right, because it was IMPOSSIBLE to get marijuana before the states legalized it.

 

[MrSquished]

Biden making a pretty good speech today. he needs to stay out there.

 

[soundforbjt]

Yeah, after being against this for a while, I really think we need speak the truth of how damaging Trump is to our nation, civil discourse and constitution.
Obama's speech gives us a blueprint on how to start. Maybe Dems should start openly calling him the Orange Menace or something like that.

Good News Biden just finished giving a speech attacking Trump for stoking fear.

 

[K1052]

The image of Biden that Trump has sought to create does't really withstand any of Biden's appearances.

 

[soundforbjt]

The image of Biden that Trump has sought to create does't really withstand any of Biden's appearances.

Especially the one of him riding a bike...contrast that with trump "walking" down the ramp.

 

[zzyzxroad]

Good News Biden just finished giving a speech attacking Trump for stoking fear.

I will have to check it out. I hope he can shift the tide because the fear-mongering law and order crap does seem to be working.

I worry there are to many idiots out there. The trump propaganda machine has many convinced that Joe is a communist which is bonkers.

 

[eelw]

I worry there are to many idiots out there. The trump propaganda machine has many convinced that Joe is a communist which is bonkers.

The only idiots are his MAGA base. So while Trumpity Dumpity rhetoric won’t have impact to November, it’s just going to further divide a nation in January. And who would have thought the right wing could hate a democrat POTUS more than Obama.

 

[Ajay]

Good News Biden just finished giving a speech attacking Trump for stoking fear.

Yeah, I think he needs a bit more fire in the belly - but he made a solid step forward today. Actually, I think he did a great job, just not blue collar people will see it that way).

 

[KMFJD]

I really wish Biden would stop desperately trying to lose any support he might have in order to court the mythical undecided voter