Another Hurricane Heading Our Way... FVCK (part 2)

[Xenon]

I was talking about Florida. Of course this thing is going to hit Jamaica as a Cat 4. Btw, the outflow on this thing was tremendous when it was a cat 5. Look at it now. Pay particular attention to the NW Quadrant.

 

[Eli]

Conditions are favorable for intensification. It does look a little less organized though. Here's what the discussion says,

REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW
929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT
ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS
A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY
GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...
THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING
ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER
POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

 

[MikeMike]

bye bye florida. its gunna be fun.

MIKE

 

[Feldenak]

Originally posted by: GagHalfrunt

Originally posted by: Feldenak
The GFDL projected track worries me.

For the folks in Florida, the NOGAPS and UKMET tracks are the ugliest. If this storm stays Cat3/Cat4 and follows something close to those paths it's going to pound areas that are not even close to recovering from Charley and Frances.

NOGAPS is starting to agree with me.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: Feldenak

Originally posted by: GagHalfrunt

Originally posted by: Feldenak
The GFDL projected track worries me.

For the folks in Florida, the NOGAPS and UKMET tracks are the ugliest. If this storm stays Cat3/Cat4 and follows something close to those paths it's going to pound areas that are not even close to recovering from Charley and Frances.

NOGAPS is starting to agree with me.

???

Right now, NOGAPS is the only one that says it's going to miss the majority of Florida.

UKMET, GFDL, GFS, and BAMM all say that it is going to slam right into Florida.

Link

 

[Cuda1447]

Whats a good link to track these storms?

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Whats a good link to track these storms?

Link

Link

This's what I've been using.

 

[Feldenak]

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: Feldenak

Originally posted by: GagHalfrunt

Originally posted by: Feldenak
The GFDL projected track worries me.

For the folks in Florida, the NOGAPS and UKMET tracks are the ugliest. If this storm stays Cat3/Cat4 and follows something close to those paths it's going to pound areas that are not even close to recovering from Charley and Frances.

NOGAPS is starting to agree with me.

???

Right now, NOGAPS is the only one that says it's going to miss the majority of Florida.

I just have a bad feeling this hurricane is going to slam into the FL Panhandle. I don't have any evidence for this opinion, just a gut feeling since Ivan entered eastern Caribbean

 

[Cuda1447]

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Whats a good link to track these storms?

Link

Link

This's what I've been using.

thanks

 

[CptObvious]

If the NHC's predicted path holds, I'm going to go to a shelter for this one. There's a couple of ominous looking trees outside my apartment window that might have been weakened by Frances

 

[Xenon]

The hurricane looks to finally be pulling itself together again. It was looking quite ragged this morning with some obvious shear visible on the satellite loops. Pressure is now up to 939 millibars and winds still holding at 145mph per the NHC.

 

[Xenon]

Maybe spoke too soon. Starting to look unhealthy again in satellite imagery. Pressure up to 940mb's per the hurricane hunters. It's become elongated sw-ne on imagery as well and the nw quadrant looking not so good. Hopefully this thing drops down to at least near cat 3 before a Jamaica landfall.

 

[VictorLazlo]

Originally posted by: DAPUNISHER

Originally posted by: cashman

Originally posted by: xeno2060

Originally posted by: Doggiedog

Originally posted by: Tiles2Tech
I have one more point for those who have been non-compassionate for those who live in Florida because of these Hurricanes. As a result of the Hurricanes as they move up the East coast, they tend to create tornados. Frances has spawned somewhere around 90 tornados already - most of which affected other states besides Florida.

Hurricanes do more damage to the United States beyond just Florida alone. It's just unfortunate that most of the damage happens when landfall happens ... and when the hurricane drags its heels when crossing a state. But, it doesn't stop there.

Tell me about it Look at what it did to NYC.

Unfortunately, for you Floridians, all you can do is wait and pray for the best. Good luck.

Thank you I live in Brevard county as does Dapunisher, he and I are Best friends, Please pray that Ivan Takes another path and that no one is hurt!!!

Where in Brevard do you guys live? I used to live in Palm Bay and I work in Melbourne/Patrick Airforce area...but I live in Orlando right now....

I probably pass your office to hit 2nd light all the time I'm in Rockledge and Xeno is in Cocoa. We need a Central Florida ATOT meet someday. Psychoandy and bro, Aphex, and yako were the sad excuse from the last one I think I think yako just came over for some of Andy's Dell hot deal systems to resell for profit on top of it, damned Ferengis! :laugh:

Anywho, Thanks to all who are feeling for those of us stuck in hurricane alley :beer: Positive thoughts go along way when despair is setting in, believe it or not!

Another vote for a central florida ATOT meeting. I'm at work in Rockledge right now
Lets go get drunk before this hurricane hits!

 

[ViciouS]

Originally posted by: z0mb13
wow and people still want to live in Florida...

how common are these hurricanes?? are they yearly things?? every 10 years?? 100 years??

I love Florida I've lived here all my life; before Frances there where 2 others, Andrew, and Irene. That?s 26 years that I've been here and only 3 hurricanes. There are natural disasters everywhere; I'd take a hurricane over a tornado, earthquake or fire, any day, because at least I can prepare for them. Florida Kicks a$$ I love it here.

 

[raildogg]

Weather patterns are changing

 

[TheLonelyPhoenix]

Originally posted by: Imdmn04

Originally posted by: MaxDSP
wtf? Thats 3 hurricanes?

It is God's way of telling Florida not to fvck up on this coming election.

LOL

 

[Xenon]

Certainly not good news for Jamaica. Here's the latest vortex message from the Hurricane Hunters. Pressure now down to 933 mb's.

000
URNT12 KNHC 102037
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2037Z
B. 16 DEG 59 MIN N
76 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2502 M
D. 100 KT
E. 296 DEG 008 NM
F. 021 DEG 118 KT
G. 296 DEG 008 NM
H. 933 MB
I. 09 C/ 3056 M
J. 18 C/ 3065 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 118 KT NW QUAD 2034Z

 

[Isla]

School has been cancelled for Monday and we have been told not to come back until the media announces school is re-opening. Do you know that shelters have morgues designated? I found that out today, because someone who volunteers at my school, when it is used as a shelter, needs to be in charge of the make-shift morgue.

My son's piano teacher is flying to Maryland in the morning. One of the teachers I work with is flying to Chicago. A substitute teacher is flying to Indiana.

I am not sure if we are going to stay put or not. This is the second time the forecasts show us getting a power enema from the Gulf of Mexico and Mother Nature. We've had a taste of being without electricity (48 hours can seem like a very loooooong time) and we know that more torrential rains could potentially flood our house.

My family has lived here for over 100 years and this has never been an issue.

< just a little freaked

 

[Feldenak]

Originally posted by: Isla
School has been cancelled for Monday and we have been told not to come back until the media announces school is re-opening. Do you know that shelters have morgues designated? I found that out today, because someone who volunteers at my school, when it is used as a shelter, needs to be in charge of the make-shift morgue.

My son's piano teacher is flying to Maryland in the morning. One of the teachers I work with is flying to Chicago. A substitute teacher is flying to Indiana.

I am not sure if we are going to stay put or not. This is the second time the forecasts show us getting a power enema from the Gulf of Mexico and Mother Nature. We've had a taste of being without electricity (48 hours can seem like a very loooooong time) and we know that more torrential rains could potentially flood our house.

My family has lived here for over 100 years and this has never been an issue.

< just a little freaked

Keep your head down and stay safe.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: Isla

My family has lived here for over 100 years and this has never been an issue.

< just a little freaked

That is because your family was not used to all the creature comforts that you have. You have gotten very spoiled.

 

[Xenon]

This is going to be a tragedy for Jamaica. People aren't evacuating. WTF?

More WTF? This is horrible. It's clearly a category 4 hurricane and people aren't heeding the warnings there like they should.

 

[Xenon]

Bad to worse. The latest vortex message from the hurricane hunters now shows a central pressure of 927 mb's. It's regaining all the strength it lost in the last day and half.

000
URNT12 KNHC 102222
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2222Z
B. 17 DEG 05 MIN N
76 DEG 16 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2456 M
D. 115 KT
E. 055 DEG 017 NM
F. 142 DEG 122 KT
G. 058 DEG 013 NM
H. 927 MB
I. 9 C/ 3060 M
J. 19 C/ 3046 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 2218Z.

 

[Cuda1447]

Im going to die I can't evacuate, I have to work Monday. D@mnit! Oh well, it won't be here till Tuesday.

 

[Isla]

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper

Originally posted by: Isla

My family has lived here for over 100 years and this has never been an issue.

< just a little freaked

That is because your family was not used to all the creature comforts that you have. You have gotten very spoiled.

Way to make a stupid assumption about someone you don't know. My great aunt taught me how to cook from scratch, how to sew, and how to garden effectively. My father was a general contractor/carpenter and so I also know a bit about shelter/housing/repairs. My husband and I make an effort to do things 'the old fashioned way' and to have our kids help us so these things won't be lost.

So, are you one of those people who gets off on making off-the-mark criticisms of people under the anonymity of the Internet?

Edit: Also, the REASON it has never been an issue is because there have never been this many major hurricanes in this time span in recorded history (I'm not counting 1964. Those were piddly.). Creature comforts or no, major hurricanes are an issue to everyone except those who can afford to fly to safety, and I'm not among those.

 

[Xenon]

Both good and bad news. Mostly bad. Kingston has dodged a bullet by about 30 miles. The pressure is now down to 920mb's and category 5 is forecast for the hurricane soon. West coast of Jamaica is in big trouble though.


Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 35


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004


...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan nearing Jamaica...could reach
category 5 strength before landfall...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince. This
warning will likely be discontinued later tonight.

A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of Youth...
and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast
of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba. Hurricane
warnings may be required for portions of western Cuba on
Saturday...and tropical storm warnings may be required for portions
of central Cuba.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea...as well as southern
Florida...should closely monitor the progress of dangerous
Hurricane Ivan.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 17.5 north...longitude 76.9 west or about 35 miles...
55 km...south of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease
on forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring
the eye of Ivan near or over the southern coast of Jamaica in the
next few hours. The eye will then continue across the northwestern
Caribbean to near the Cayman Islands late Saturday or Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph...250
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated
terrain. Some strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours...
and it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5 status
before the eye reaches Jamaica.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km. Amateur radio reports indicate hurricane
force winds over large parts of Jamaica.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb...27.17 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 76.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven