Another Hurricane Heading Our Way... FVCK (part 2)

[puffpio]

Any satellite or space station pics of this new hurricane?

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: pio!pio!
Any satellite or space station pics of this new hurricane?

Click on any of the links in previous posts.

 

[xeno2060]

Originally posted by: Doggiedog

Originally posted by: Tiles2Tech
I have one more point for those who have been non-compassionate for those who live in Florida because of these Hurricanes. As a result of the Hurricanes as they move up the East coast, they tend to create tornados. Frances has spawned somewhere around 90 tornados already - most of which affected other states besides Florida.

Hurricanes do more damage to the United States beyond just Florida alone. It's just unfortunate that most of the damage happens when landfall happens ... and when the hurricane drags its heels when crossing a state. But, it doesn't stop there.

Tell me about it Look at what it did to NYC.

Unfortunately, for you Floridians, all you can do is wait and pray for the best. Good luck.

Thank you I live in Brevard county as does Dapunisher, he and I are Best friends, Please pray that Ivan Takes another path and that no one is hurt!!!

 

[Cuda1447]

A question to people who might know...


Ive got a house in Michigan that I might be planning to fly out to from Tampa, if this hurricane is projected to hit here, and at high speeds. The question is, will it be difficult to get out? Are the airports going to get hammered a day or two before the hurricane is projected to hit?

 

[xeno2060]

YES

 

[Nitemare]

Originally posted by: xeno2060
YES

But I imagine the boatyards will be empty

 

[mikebb]

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
A question to people who might know...


Ive got a house in Michigan that I might be planning to fly out to from Tampa, if this hurricane is projected to hit here, and at high speeds. The question is, will it be difficult to get out? Are the airports going to get hammered a day or two before the hurricane is projected to hit?

Yes, absolutely. My work was trying to get me a flight out to GA tomorrow, to be prepared for a disaster-recovery scenario. No such luck, the only thing they could get me is a 5:00 flight on Saturday, with a layover in Jacksonville.

 

[Cuda1447]

Originally posted by: mikebb

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
A question to people who might know...


Ive got a house in Michigan that I might be planning to fly out to from Tampa, if this hurricane is projected to hit here, and at high speeds. The question is, will it be difficult to get out? Are the airports going to get hammered a day or two before the hurricane is projected to hit?

Yes, absolutely. My work was trying to get me a flight out to GA tomorrow, to be prepared for a disaster-recovery scenario. No such luck, the only thing they could get me is a 5:00 flight on Saturday, with a layover in Jacksonville.

Is flying out going to be just as bad? Worse?

 

[Danman]

Originally posted by: xeno2060

Originally posted by: Doggiedog

Originally posted by: Tiles2Tech
I have one more point for those who have been non-compassionate for those who live in Florida because of these Hurricanes. As a result of the Hurricanes as they move up the East coast, they tend to create tornados. Frances has spawned somewhere around 90 tornados already - most of which affected other states besides Florida.

Hurricanes do more damage to the United States beyond just Florida alone. It's just unfortunate that most of the damage happens when landfall happens ... and when the hurricane drags its heels when crossing a state. But, it doesn't stop there.

Tell me about it Look at what it did to NYC.

Unfortunately, for you Floridians, all you can do is wait and pray for the best. Good luck.

Thank you I live in Brevard county as does Dapunisher, he and I are Best friends, Please pray that Ivan Takes another path and that no one is hurt!!!

Where in Brevard do you guys live? I used to live in Palm Bay and I work in Melbourne/Patrick Airforce area...but I live in Orlando right now....

 

[Doggiedog]

Originally posted by: mikebb

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
A question to people who might know...


Ive got a house in Michigan that I might be planning to fly out to from Tampa, if this hurricane is projected to hit here, and at high speeds. The question is, will it be difficult to get out? Are the airports going to get hammered a day or two before the hurricane is projected to hit?

Yes, absolutely. My work was trying to get me a flight out to GA tomorrow, to be prepared for a disaster-recovery scenario. No such luck, the only thing they could get me is a 5:00 flight on Saturday, with a layover in Jacksonville.

Damn.

I'll be flying in about that time like an idiot.

Hopefully, that boat will have an extra gear or two.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Flights in/out of a area will be suspended when a watch is issued for the area.

Planes will be shuttled out of any potentially affected area when a warning is issued.

Cruise lines will divert when the watch is issued.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Originally posted by: cashman

Originally posted by: xeno2060

Originally posted by: Doggiedog

Originally posted by: Tiles2Tech
I have one more point for those who have been non-compassionate for those who live in Florida because of these Hurricanes. As a result of the Hurricanes as they move up the East coast, they tend to create tornados. Frances has spawned somewhere around 90 tornados already - most of which affected other states besides Florida.

Hurricanes do more damage to the United States beyond just Florida alone. It's just unfortunate that most of the damage happens when landfall happens ... and when the hurricane drags its heels when crossing a state. But, it doesn't stop there.

Tell me about it Look at what it did to NYC.

Unfortunately, for you Floridians, all you can do is wait and pray for the best. Good luck.

Thank you I live in Brevard county as does Dapunisher, he and I are Best friends, Please pray that Ivan Takes another path and that no one is hurt!!!

Where in Brevard do you guys live? I used to live in Palm Bay and I work in Melbourne/Patrick Airforce area...but I live in Orlando right now....

I probably pass your office to hit 2nd light all the time I'm in Rockledge and Xeno is in Cocoa. We need a Central Florida ATOT meet someday. Psychoandy and bro, Aphex, and yako were the sad excuse from the last one I think I think yako just came over for some of Andy's Dell hot deal systems to resell for profit on top of it, damned Ferengis! :laugh:

Anywho, Thanks to all who are feeling for those of us stuck in hurricane alley :beer: Positive thoughts go along way when despair is setting in, believe it or not!

 

[ZeroEffect]

just got power back today in Clearwater - after 5 1/2 days without.

Power utility guys from Pennsylvania were here doing the work!!

thumbs up to those hard working guys... i hope they were making
killer OT.

 

[Xenon]

There appears to be a weakening trend on the latest IR loops, but it is interesting to note that the CDO is increasing in size.

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: ZeroEffect
just got power back today in Clearwater - after 5 1/2 days without.

Power utility guys from Pennsylvania were here doing the work!!

thumbs up to those hard working guys... i hope they were making
killer OT.

don't you just hate florida power (progress energy or whatever the hell they call themselves now) I got lucky this time and my power didn't go out at all. I live in the Highpoint area

 

[ndee]

if we could only use the energy somehow that such a hurricane produces. They said Ivan has(had) double the power that the world makes IIRC.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Xenon
There appears to be a weakening trend on the latest IR loops, but it is interesting to note that the CDO is increasing in size.

There is no weakening trend. It is simply an eyewall replacement cycle. SHIPS takes it to 166mph soon.

 

[cucumber]

Originally posted by: z0mb13
wow and people still want to live in Florida...

how common are these hurricanes?? are they yearly things?? every 10 years?? 100 years??

Well, even though there is a yearly hurricane season, it's pretty rare a truly serious hurricane hits. In my lifetime (or memory) Andrew was the only truly horrible storm until Charlie and these were many years a part.

Getting several hurricanes in the same year (let alone month.....) is rediculous.

 

[Xenon]

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Xenon
There appears to be a weakening trend on the latest IR loops, but it is interesting to note that the CDO is increasing in size.

There is no weakening trend. It is simply an eyewall replacement cycle. SHIPS takes it to 166mph soon.

The weakening trend has been confirmed by the latest pressure readings, now up to 929 millibars. That is significantly higher than it was at its peak. They've kept the max winds at 145mph's though. This thing will likely be cat 3 soon given the landmasses it has to deal with and a forecast of increasing shear. Things are at least looking a bit positive for Florida, but a landfall there is still likely.

Edit: SHIPS doesn't take into account the effects of landmasses.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Xenon

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Xenon
There appears to be a weakening trend on the latest IR loops, but it is interesting to note that the CDO is increasing in size.

There is no weakening trend. It is simply an eyewall replacement cycle. SHIPS takes it to 166mph soon.

The weakening trend has been confirmed by the latest pressure readings, now up to 929 millibars. That is significantly higher than it was at its peak. They've kept the max winds at 145mph's though. This thing will likely be cat 3 soon given the landmasses it has to deal with and a forecast of increasing shear. Things are at least looking a bit positive for Florida, but a landfall there is still likely.

Edit: SHIPS doesn't take into account the effects of landmasses.

TREND. There is no weakening TREND. It was a CERC and that's all there is to it. I said NOTHING of it weakening due to land masses because we aren't at that point yet. Trend implies an consistent thing, which this is simply not. After the CERC the pressure will drop down and the winds will be back close to 150-160mph sustained. SHIPS had it 166 in 24 hours. That is meaning 166 right before hitting Jamaica. Just trust me enough to realize I didn't go to MSU for meteorology for nothing even though I didn't finish that degree. Ivan will be a Strong Cat4/Cat5 before hitting Jamaica. It doesn't matter if the winds drop 5mph when speaking of a storm with gusts to 180 and a massive surge. Besides... the supp vortex has the winds back up so it will be hitting back to 135-140kts soon. It is going to severely destroy Jamaica and Cuba, and there is nothing than can be done but to pray. I'm hoping it will weaken very much going over both landmasses, but I think the upwelling on the East Coast of FL is severely overrated. I still see Weak Cat.4 before hitting slightly north of Tampa. You simply cannot say a CERC is a trend unless during the CERC it encounters shear and dry air intrusion.

BTW, official NHC forecast is 135knots which is Cat 5 for Jamaica.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: Xenon

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Xenon
There appears to be a weakening trend on the latest IR loops, but it is interesting to note that the CDO is increasing in size.

There is no weakening trend. It is simply an eyewall replacement cycle. SHIPS takes it to 166mph soon.

The weakening trend has been confirmed by the latest pressure readings, now up to 929 millibars. That is significantly higher than it was at its peak. They've kept the max winds at 145mph's though. This thing will likely be cat 3 soon given the landmasses it has to deal with and a forecast of increasing shear. Things are at least looking a bit positive for Florida, but a landfall there is still likely.

Edit: SHIPS doesn't take into account the effects of landmasses.

Mill is right, it is simply an eyewall regeneration cycle. You read enough of the advisories, you should know this.

They're ~24 hour cycles as far as I can tell. The latest SHIPS info that I can find pegs it at 144mph at 12 hours, 154mph at 36 hours, and 146 at 72 hours.

Assuming favorable conditions after going through Cuba, my guess is that it will strengthen a bit just before hitting Florida... Who knows, though.

 

[Xenon]

SHIPS does not take into account landmasses. What don't you guys understand about that? I'm not going to argue with you guys especially with someone that wants to bring out an "almost meteorology degree," but we will see where this thing is in 12 hours. Btw, the official forecast is for 115kts in 72 hours. That's barely a cat 4. You guys know that the NHC has to err on the side of caution with these things.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Xenon
SHIPS does not take into account landmasses. What don't you guys understand about that? I'm not going to argue with you guys especially with someone that wants to bring out an "almost meteorology degree," but we will see where this thing is in 12 hours. Btw, the official forecast is for 115kts in 72 hours. That's barely a cat 4. You guys know that the NHC has to err on the side of caution with these things.

I'm NOT TALKING ABOUT FLORIDA. I"M TALING ABOUT THINGS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE SUCH AS JAMAICA AND CUBA. There is simply NO reason to speculate about Ivan's strength after it hits Cuba when it isn't even there! I'm not concerned with SHIPS right now, because I'm speaking solely of the next 24-48 hours. Wait until the next advisory or two. Pressure will drop and winds increase. I see zero evidence of shear or dry air. We are arguing two different things here. I am talking about the next 24-48 hour and not goddamn Florida.

 

[Mill]

Hell just look at the Dvorak T's

Any weakening is temporary until it crosses Cuba.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: Xenon
SHIPS does not take into account landmasses. What don't you guys understand about that? I'm not going to argue with you guys especially with someone that wants to bring out an "almost meteorology degree," but we will see where this thing is in 12 hours. Btw, the official forecast is for 115kts in 72 hours. That's barely a cat 4. You guys know that the NHC has to err on the side of caution with these things.

Who said anything about land masses? Jamaica isn't going to hinder convection very much, and it isn't even scheduled to hit there for ~21 hours.

You were talking about a weakening trend. There is no weakening trend. That is all we were saying.