Another Hurricane Heading Our Way... FVCK (part 2)

[Ogg]

Im not so sure that Kingston is going to dodge the bullet yet.

That bullet is still gonna hurt, alot :Q

 

[NumbersGuy]

Unless you need snow & ice Florida is (and there are many Floridas) a perfect state. There's a spot for everybody.

Comments on a couple of comments from way above:

wind pressure increases w the square (not the cube) of the velocity, and (roughly) linearly w height.

in '64 FL also had 3 hurricanes

if Ivan proceeds to the panhandle section, all three hurricanes will have avoided the major population centers, and without discounting the suffering of folks who will spend the next 2-3 years rebuilding, the damage has been (relatively) minor.

Put a cat 5 straight into Miami-Lauderdale or Tampa-St Pete-Orlando and we'll see very bad stuff.

The only 3 cat 5s to land in the US were the 1935 (Labor day?) in the FL Keys, with thousands dead even though thinly populated), Camille w/ 200 mph winds into rural MS, and Andrew who kindly passed through the least dense section of SoFL.

Sure hope this weakens a lot.

If anybody is interested I'll find a link for the design wind velocities map through the states (most are 90mph), coastals (yes, including Jersey) range from 150mph thru typically 120-100.

Sleep tight

 

[Eli]

Wow, you guys see that westerly and even slight southwesterly motion in the last few frames of the infrared satellite? It's almost skirting the coast of Jamaica..... That's gotta be bad.

 

[Xenon]

Latest Vortex message finally out. Pressure still falling.

URNT12 KNHC 110612
: VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
: A. 11/0612Z
: B. 17 DEG 22 MIN N
: 77 DEG 35 MIN W
: C. 700 MB 2425 M
: D. NA
: E. NA
: F. 020 DEG 138 KT
: G. 290 DEG 016 NM
: H. 923 MB
: I. 10 C/ 3073 M
: J. 17 C/ 3052 M
: K. 16 C/ NA
: L. CLOSED
: M. CO12-40
: N. 12345/7
: O. 0.1/1.0 NM
: P. AF963 1809A IVAN OB 09
: MAX FL WIND 138 KT W QUAD 0607Z.

 

[Eli]

It almost looks like it is going to go around Jamaica. I mean, they're still seeing hurricane force winds, but I guess it's better than the storm cutting straight through them.

That's pretty cool.

 

[Doggiedog]

Wish me luck!

I'm heading out there now.

I will be in ATOT silence for a while as shipboard Internet access is $0.75/min.

Not even ATOT is worth that much!

 

[T2T III]

Originally posted by: Eli
It almost looks like it is going to go around Jamaica. I mean, they're still seeing hurricane force winds, but I guess it's better than the storm cutting straight through them.

That's pretty cool.

Sadly, some of the greater damage to Jamaica is being done by its own residents. I saw on the news where rescue workers were being attacked and robbed at gunpoint on the streets by the natives. 🙁 🙁

 

[Mill]

Very bad news. Pressure down to 914, and winds up to 165mph sustained.

damn

 

[Xenon]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 111931
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB AND THE ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 165 MPH...270 KM/HR. THESE NEW VALUES OR FURTHER
UPDATES WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: Eli
It almost looks like it is going to go around Jamaica. I mean, they're still seeing hurricane force winds, but I guess it's better than the storm cutting straight through them.

That's pretty cool.

they were in the north/northeastern quadrant of the hurricane, they got hammerd. It's the worst part of the hurricane that can go over you

 

[Kalvin00]

Holy piss! :shocked:

 

[Xenon]

Louisianna, Alabama, Mississippi now need to be put on alert. The forecast track continues to shift westward.

5 day forecast

 

[Xenon]

Nice humongous satellite pic of Ivan

 

[KLin]

I wonder what magnitude earthquake you would equate this hurricane to? 7.0 with the epicenter in the middle of SF? 8.0?

 

[Xenon]

You know I've been following hurricanes for about 20 years now as a hobby and this is the most "perfect" storm I've ever seen. Hopefully this thing pulls off another miracle for Grand Cayman as the one we saw with Jamaica.

Ivan

 

[Feldenak]

Originally posted by: Xenon
Louisianna, Alabama, Mississippi now need to be put on alert. The forecast track continues to shift westward.

5 day forecast

Damn...I had this feeling as soon as it entered the eastern Caribbean sea. Everyone here thought I was crazy when I said this thing was going to hit the FL Panhandle and then head up through Alabama.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Feldenak

Originally posted by: Xenon
Louisianna, Alabama, Mississippi now need to be put on alert. The forecast track continues to shift westward.

5 day forecast

Damn...I had this feeling as soon as it entered the eastern Caribbean sea. Everyone here thought I was crazy when I said this thing was going to hit the FL Panhandle and then head up through Alabama.

This is very bad for Auburn right now. I hope it doesn't shift any further west, because if it hits the Panhandle farther west it will track up through Montgomery and Birmingham.

 

[AaronB]

Originally posted by: Xenon
Nice humongous satellite pic of Ivan

A bit smaller version

 

[Mill]

Gusts over 200 is just plain nasty.

 

[Xenon]

Just gets worse and worse. Grand Cayman already reporting flooded roads and this thing is 160 miles away. Pressure is down to an astounding 910 millibars.

000
URNT12 KNHC 120005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0005Z
B. 18 DEG 09 MIN N
79 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2295 M
D. 50 KT
E. 314 DEG 102 NM
F. 022 DEG 146 KT
G. 288 DEG 010 NM
H. 910 MB
I. 12 C/ 3123 M
J. 22 C/ 3122 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 150 KT SE QUAD 2042Z.

 

[shimsham]

Originally posted by: Feldenak

Originally posted by: Xenon
Louisianna, Alabama, Mississippi now need to be put on alert. The forecast track continues to shift westward.

5 day forecast

Damn...I had this feeling as soon as it entered the eastern Caribbean sea. Everyone here thought I was crazy when I said this thing was going to hit the FL Panhandle and then head up through Alabama.

i didnt. ive had a bad feeling about ivan. west florida has been lucky all season, so we're due.

i have a feeling we may getting the fvck outta dodge.

 

[badmouse]

Weather channel just said "6th worst hurricane ever recorded in the Caribbean". Wow.

 

[Ryan]

I wonder if home depot will be sold out of plywood tomorrow (since Panama city is located in the center of the projected path)??.........🙁

I'm not too worried, I have insurance on my house - I'm spending tomorrow taking pictures of my new house and other property. I've got plans to evacuate if needed, and will have a place to go.

 

[Feldenak]

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Feldenak

Originally posted by: Xenon
Louisianna, Alabama, Mississippi now need to be put on alert. The forecast track continues to shift westward.

5 day forecast

Damn...I had this feeling as soon as it entered the eastern Caribbean sea. Everyone here thought I was crazy when I said this thing was going to hit the FL Panhandle and then head up through Alabama.

This is very bad for Auburn right now. I hope it doesn't shift any further west, because if it hits the Panhandle farther west it will track up through Montgomery and Birmingham.

Yeah, my fiancee and I are headed to the store tomorrow. We're picking up an extra flashlight, batteries, water, ice, etc...

We may get some plywood for the windows because we've got a couple trees out back that really worry me. I really felt they would go when Frances nearly rolled through the area.

 

[user1234]

Looks like this thing will not be hitting Cuba except for the most western past. Yippie !!! it is scheduled to hit the Florida panhandle on Wednesday evening as a category 3 hurricane, most likely (according to the national weather service).