Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[DAPUNISHER]

The large Russian convoy got hit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498665872268972043

Thanks. Here is a link to the article without the paywall -

https://archive.is/LNsoJ

 

[fskimospy]

So can someone explain to me why the Ukranians aren't just bombing the shit out of that 17+ mile long convoy? There are videos that have been posted the past few days of them bombing other military stuff with drones or artillery - so why not those sitting ducks?

I don't think anyone here has sufficient knowledge of the military situation to say why. I'm pretty sure they are highly aware of that convoy and would very much like to blow it up though so presumably there is a reason.

EDIT: Looks like they are hitting it in places, actually. I imagine they would hit it more if they could.

 

[rommelrommel]

There is no “freeing” Taiwan militarily. Will never happen. Impossible.

But Beijing’s preferred method is to slowly/gradually influence the populace to the point where they openly welcome reunification with China. They have decades to wait. They can play the long game. If China were to seize Taiwan by force, every single fab and manufacturing facility on the island would be sabotaged and destroyed before soldiers set foot on the island.

Taiwan is free, and the people feel freer of the PRC than they’ve ever been. The PRC campaign to win hearts and minds will never work because the PRC foolishly cracked down on Hong Kong so Taiwan knows exactly what is in store should they reunify.

Should the PRC decide to go to war they’re inviting a permanent military solution and they’ll get one, but I think it won’t be the one they‘re looking for.

 

[HomerJS]

So can someone explain to me why the Ukranians aren't just bombing the shit out of that 17+ mile long convoy? There are videos that have been posted the past few days of them bombing other military stuff with drones or artillery - so why not those sitting ducks?

I've heard that question many times today. Hard to criticize a people putting up such a fight. Hopefully it's a strategic decision. At a minimum they had enough weapons to destroy the road into Kyiv

 

[Homerboy]

So can someone explain to me why the Ukranians aren't just bombing the shit out of that 17+ mile long convoy? There are videos that have been posted the past few days of them bombing other military stuff with drones or artillery - so why not those sitting ducks?

I'd guess there's "reasons"
I'd guess those reasons would be along the lines of ROI. The column clearly has surface to air missiles so you can't just indiscriminately fly fighters and drones over it for fear of losing one of those fighters or drones which are pretty much priceless and irreplaceable. So, they have to pick and choose when they attack and where they attack and what they hit. They can pick off certain high-value targets or targets that will just create a log jam for the rest of the column behind it. It has to be surgical and well thought out - not just bomb the shit out of it.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Supposedly Crimean marines refused to assault Odesa.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498587998627282945

 

[cytg111]

Supposedly Crimean marines refused to assault Odesa.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498587998627282945

More of this. Please. Reject the criminal orders of Don Puti

 

[woolfe9998]

I don't mean physically block oil exports, I mean include the energy sector in the sanctions which is now exempt. BP and Shell have already moved out of Russia. Make it financially untenable for any remaining oil company. Russia needs them for production so that would be halted.

We already have more world demand for oil right now than supply, reflected in high gas prices. If Russian oil is cutoff, it will cause economic turmoil in the west. Putin may decide to use it as a weapon, in which case we'll have to deal with it.

 

[cytg111]

I still dont understand why some NATO countries dont get involved.

Sure WW3 and all that. I’d argue that the only reason its not WW3 already is because the west is not firing back… we seem content at being the punching bag in this equation.

We have an excellent chance to squash one of the big remaining regimes on this planet… Take it.

 

[sandorski]

Some "Reports" seem dubious. I try to not get too optimistic.

 

[dullard]

I still dont understand why some NATO countries dont get involved.

Sure WW3 and all that. I’d argue that the only reason its not WW3 already is because the west is not firing back… we seem content at being the punching bag in this equation.

We have an excellent chance to squash one of the big remaining regimes on this planet… Take it.

Because then we would always have to be the guardian, for all countries, for all time. We would become the evil empire for many people in the world (people who don't think the West should control everything), generating decades of future problems. We would forever be the spender of trillions of dollars on countless wars.

Plus, holding back seems to be working. Russia isn't doing well in the war, looking weak, and the world is behind Ukraine. Let the success be successful. Then, only if needed, squash Russia once the world is fully against Putin.

 

[K1052]

We already have more world demand for oil right now than supply, reflected in high gas prices. If Russian oil is cutoff, it will cause economic turmoil in the west. Putin may decide to use it as a weapon, in which case we'll have to deal with it.

What really has happened is that investors are no longer willing to waste huge sums of money in the US shale fields to secure volume at a loss. The era of cheap gas that we saw is likely over for good and nobody can really change that.

Russian oil is already somewhat cut off as they are having trouble finding takers for their cargos. Who wants to buy when that tanker full of crude you paid for could be seized by the navy if things deteriorate further?

 

[Dave_5k]

So can someone explain to me why the Ukranians aren't just bombing the shit out of that 17+ mile long convoy? There are videos that have been posted the past few days of them bombing other military stuff with drones or artillery - so why not those sitting ducks?

Ukrainians have had their entire air force shot down or destroyed on base. While they might have a fighter or two left on western airbases (I doubt it as none seen in last 2 days), Russians have air defenses over most of their forces. Ukrainians were still running a handful of remaining armed drones - that can get off one (or at most 2) missiles per run. Most of the Ukrainian armor and artillery is gone, or is dug in trying to hold front line near Donetsk.

And the Russians still have a massive amount of anti-air equipment mixed into that convoy and elsewhere, so even if Ukraine did have ground support fighters, deploying them would get them killed quickly.

As armchair general, with what they have left to work with, hit and run with small teams of javelin-armed (or similar) infantry, each moving around with say a 4x4 truck, is about best they could do right now. They have been making fairly effective strikes against smaller units and resupply lines.

Outside of that, basically urban warfare, which is really ugly.

 

[VRAMdemon]

So can someone explain to me why the Ukranians aren't just bombing the shit out of that 17+ mile long convoy? There are videos that have been posted the past few days of them bombing other military stuff with drones or artillery - so why not those sitting ducks?

Arm chair generaling - I'm assuming the convoy is being supported by aerial and space based observation and anything that looks unfriendly is going to be engaged. Can Ukrainians cause damage to some vehicles. Yes. Will that matter an iota? probably not if I had to guess.

A better option might well be to mine the routes its will likely take and blow up roads, bridges, canals on the way. Slow them down. Then some coordinated attacks. Ukrainians know where that convoy is, and what route it’s taking, there’s probably something planned for it. That’s assuming that the Ukrainian forces are still at the point where they can strike back against it in any sort of coordinated fashion.

 

[interchange]

Supposedly Crimean marines refused to assault Odesa.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498587998627282945

Turns out it's important your forces buy into the mission they are sent on. America knows this all to well.

 

[Roger Wilco]

How often do Russian ships enter Canadian ports?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498708772952412163

 

[K1052]

How often do Russian ships enter Canadian ports?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498708772952412163

Looks like Canada imports a very small amount of refined products and basically no crude. Other Russian imports don't amount to much, mostly a modest amount of fertilizer. Nobody is going to touch Russian cargo now anyway.

 

[gothuevos]

Thought Russia had an A-tier military...what is actually going on out there?

 

[Amused]

Oh no.

I have weird hobbies too. Mine is tracking and monitoring far right and Qanon influencers and followers.

The consensus among them is this: Daddy Putin is saving us all from the massively corrupted Ukrainian government who is a piggy bank for the Cabal. The Clintons and Bidens practically own the country, donchya know? (When you boil it down, though, the Cabal is Jews)
It is also the world epicenter for Cabal human trafficking (SAVE THE CHILDREN!) and they also have dozens of evil US biolabs that Putin has been destroying.
It is also all part of the world reset. Putin is bringing about "Gesara."
And for the evangelical Qnuts? Well, Pat Robertson already expressed their take on it.

The VAST majority of far right conspiracy land (some 25% of this country now) are firmly in support of Putin.

This is the kind of absolute batshit pro-putin propaganda being passed around conservative forums.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1642374012772149

 

[Uhtrinity]

Ukrainians have had their entire air force shot down or destroyed on base. While they might have a fighter or two left on western airbases (I doubt it as none seen in last 2 days), Russians have air defenses over most of their forces. Ukrainians were still running a handful of remaining armed drones - that can get off one (or at most 2) missiles per run. Most of the Ukrainian armor and artillery is gone, or is dug in trying to hold front line near Donetsk.

And the Russians still have a massive amount of anti-air equipment mixed into that convoy and elsewhere, so even if Ukraine did have ground support fighters, deploying them would get them killed quickly.

As armchair general, with what they have left to work with, hit and run with small teams of javelin-armed (or similar) infantry, each moving around with say a 4x4 truck, is about best they could do right now. They have been making fairly effective strikes against smaller units and resupply lines.

Outside of that, basically urban warfare, which is really ugly.

It blows my mind how effective these mobile groups have been against air and armor. I'm thinking these and drones will be the future of close combat. Much more cost effective.

 

[K1052]

heh

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498716147063140352

 

[Pens1566]

Thought Russia had an A-tier military...what is actually going on out there?

No one that's been paying attention really thought that. They've always been quantity over quality. Their ~6k warheads is really all they've got going for them.

 

[biostud]

I still dont understand why some NATO countries dont get involved.

Sure WW3 and all that. I’d argue that the only reason its not WW3 already is because the west is not firing back… we seem content at being the punching bag in this equation.

We have an excellent chance to squash one of the big remaining regimes on this planet… Take it.

Because if there is one thing the last 30 years of involvement in the Middle East has told us, don't engage if you don't have an exit strategy.

 

[J30_Uwe]

I would imagine the difference between Ukrainian and Hispanic refugees is that Ukrainian refugees would want to return to their homes once the shooting stops and Ukraine stops the Russians. If the Russians succeed then some Ukrainian refugees probably would not want to go back home. I don't think many of the Hispanic migrants have any intention of ever returning to their homes.

Do any of the more stable countries in Central and South America such as Belize, Costa Rica or Brazil experience large numbers of migrants? I haven't seen complaints from those countries about migrants. If people are just trying to get away from a violent enviroment wouldn't these countries also be viable options?

 

[biostud]

I've heard that question many times today. Hard to criticize a people putting up such a fight. Hopefully it's a strategic decision. At a minimum they had enough weapons to destroy the road into Kyiv

AA tanks, support aircrafts and helicopters?