Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[rommelrommel]

Does make you wonder if Erdogan is thinking so highly of himself after giving the US the proverbial middle finger and buying that piece of shit S400 system. No new Block F16's and no F35's.

I am pretty sure he’d like that one back.

 

[Jaskalas]

Russian media discussing North Korea.
Their brilliant idea is to arm DPRK with enough nuclear missiles, as to let Kim throw MAD nukes at us instead of Russia. As if we wouldn't just nuke them both in retaliation.

Russian media actually, truly, believes, they can use North Korea to launch nukes.

 

[A///]

S400 with a network of shorter range supplemental AD has certainly been billed as by far the best networked air defence on the planet, at least until S500 recently came online.

Now it’s more likely to be nothing all that special, aside from the massive range it has.

Just want clarification but is the second part contradictory due to knowledge we now have based in comparison with the "fear" the Russians tried instilling by boasting about their capability in the first half of your post?

 

[A///]

I am pretty sure he’d like that one back.

He can fucking grovel. Their government and private firms were aiding Russia as a third party. Them and others.

 

[A///]

Russian media discussing North Korea.
Their brilliant idea is to arm DPRK with enough nuclear missiles, as to let Kim throw MAD nukes at us instead of Russia. As if we wouldn't just nuke them both in retaliation.

Russian media actually, truly, believes, they can use North Korea to launch nukes.

I knew it had to be Solovyov who was talking such shit.

 

[Ajay]

An S400 battery should be integrated with s300, Buk, Pantsir, combat air patrol, etc and not be using its own missiles to intercept what a cheaper missile can.

US plans to destroy S400 basically involved saturating a battery with so much ordinance that it ran out of missiles. It seems like it doesn’t perform as well as it should, probably doesn’t integrate as well as it should, and probably was also poorly implemented in this case with a view to just intercepting the odd cruise missile or whatever. They likely were naive about Ukrainian abilities and not prepared.

To be somewhat fair, the Patriot SAM system wasn't all that great from the get go. It was all we really had for longer range, so we kept working on it. It seems like the Russians don't really advance their systems as quickly as the numbering system implies. Too much graft and cut corners. Russian arms salesmen did a good job, maybe the engineers did okay, but the manufacturer's probably didn't - then the Russian Army skips out on training and now it's just a drone/LO cruise missile target.

 

[A///]

To be somewhat fair, the Patriot SAM system wasn't all that great from the get go. It was all we really had for longer range, so we kept working on it. It seems like the Russians don't really advance their systems as quickly as the numbering system implies. Too much graft and cut corners. Russian arms salesmen did a good job, maybe the engineers did okay, but the manufacturer's probably didn't - then the Russian Army skips out on training and now it's just a drone/LO cruise missile target.

Most things in life are like that. Give a person a long gun and they may know how to use it and have a vague idea how to aim, but they'll miss. Give them a 3 minute primer on aiming, they may get a few shots out of 10 nearly on point.

The west invests in their military but even down to a soldier's level. They hone those young men and women depending on the country into fighting machines. Russia just calls some 18 yo up whose idea of war is craft of duty and gets his head blown off by a Ukrainian AK. His parents weep, the military gives them a sack of potatoes and a shrug.

 

[RnR_au]

Not in uniform though, saw another pic where he's in that khaki suit. I wonder what the story is on that. He's too valuable to not use when there is French influence to help remove from Africa, probably. Kremlin isn't discussing him. The new Prigozhin in Africa maybe?

The rumour on twitter is that he was exiled. Not sure if any countries out there have warrants out for him on war crimes or other matters.

 

[K1052]

To be somewhat fair, the Patriot SAM system wasn't all that great from the get go. It was all we really had for longer range, so we kept working on it. It seems like the Russians don't really advance their systems as quickly as the numbering system implies. Too much graft and cut corners. Russian arms salesmen did a good job, maybe the engineers did okay, but the manufacturer's probably didn't - then the Russian Army skips out on training and now it's just a drone/LO cruise missile target.

For better or worse Patriot has seen a lot of action and updates to the interceptors have been made over the years resulting in a much more capable system. The US, until recently, is the only major power to have actually used its military on a wide scale that made incremental improvements both possible and relevant.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

An S400 battery should be integrated with s300, Buk, Pantsir, combat air patrol, etc and not be using its own missiles to intercept what a cheaper missile can.

US plans to destroy S400 basically involved saturating a battery with so much ordinance that it ran out of missiles. It seems like it doesn’t perform as well as it should, probably doesn’t integrate as well as it should, and probably was also poorly implemented in this case with a view to just intercepting the odd cruise missile or whatever. They likely were naive about Ukrainian abilities and not prepared.

So a k-mart patriot. About what I expected.

 

[Leeea]

So a k-mart patriot. About what I expected.

Until a few days ago the S400/500 was the best thing since sliced bread.


Now patriots shoot down hyper-sonic Kinzhals and s400s get blown away by sub-sonic domestically manufactured Ukrainian anti-ship missiles that do not even have terrain following.



To be fair, I think a Patriot system put in the same situation as that s400 system with the same crew would have been destroyed also. The S400 crew let the Ukrainian's strip them of their radars and after that it wouldn't matter what hardware was being used.

 

[K1052]

Ships are slowly starting to service Ukranian ports again. This bulker bolted from the Sulina anchorage, turned off its transponder for part of the trip, and is now headed for the grain terminals at Chornomorsk. It would appear Russian ability to do much about this is limited now given how things have developed. Extensive mining might deter the Russians from trying to use their Kilos to interdict shipping and they've now got one less to work with.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Saturday morning random bits of maybe something, maybe nothing ....

Thousands of Czechs rally in Prague to demand the government's resignation

Thousands of Czechs have rallied in the capital to demand the government’s resignation over high energy and other prices as well as the war in Ukraine.

apnews.com

The head of the populist group, Jindrich Rajchl, blamed the government “for following orders from Brussels,” criticized the country’s support for Ukraine and its close ties with the United States.

His group, whose name in English stands for Law, Respect, Expertise, has no seats in parliament.

Some demonstrators demanded the country quit NATO.



She danced with Putin at her wedding. Now the former Austrian foreign minister has moved to Russia

A former Austrian foreign minister who had invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to her wedding and danced a waltz with him at the 2018 reception says she has moved to St.

 

[Jaskalas]

Putin's puppet continues to fluff his master, and keeps vowing Ukraine's total destruction. His one day solution is transparent as hell.
We did not know the consequences of America's 2020 election. Europe got lucky that year.
But today we know 10s of millions will suffer death, torture, and despair if we allow a traitor to ascend and betray Ukraine, Europe, and NATO.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1703001029409955908

 

[rommelrommel]

Just want clarification but is the second part contradictory due to knowledge we now have based in comparison with the "fear" the Russians tried instilling by boasting about their capability in the first half of your post?

To some extent we're just guessing because all we know is that S400 can be saturated and defeated relatively easily under at least some conditions... why is another issue. Is it the equipment? The crews? Bad implementation of this battery? The shortage of mid/short range GBAD to network with it? Did it simply miss picking up/hitting some of the cruise missiles?

Both the west and Russia tended to believe the claims about S400/S500 more or less because it's an area that Russia and the USSR traditionally has been pretty good at, and the claims were within reason.

Long story short, it seems to not be as good of an area denial weapon as we previously thought. Especially when the USA/NATO could relatively easily fire a large volley of JASSM, MALD, etc

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

^^^ But how many times over what time period? Isn't there a supply issue of those air assets ?

 

[rommelrommel]

^^^ But how many times over what time period? Isn't there a supply issue of those air assets ?

There's always availability issues for aircraft in a major conflict, but I wouldn't say that NATO is short on strike aircraft. Almost every fighter and bomber in inventory can fire stealthy cruise missiles among the big players. There's also a healthy inventory of JASSM in the USA, JASSM-ER is coming online and it greatly outrages S400 so anything really could launch those, no stealth required.

I don't really see a scenario where NATO is dismantling a Russian AD network anyways... unless it's the one in occupied Ukraine or Putin loses his mind and nukes Kyiv.

 

[K1052]

Another Buk bites the dust.

edit: link fixed

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1703107935486742905

 

[Leeea]

Another Buk bites the dust.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1703123014223634681

I am unable to see or load that link.

 

[Jaskalas]

Here's some interesting commentary on the artillery contest.
Russia may have shells, but do they have enough barrels?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1702657716986991038

 

[you2]

Until a few days ago the S400/500 was the best thing since sliced bread.


Now patriots shoot down hyper-sonic Kinzhals and s400s get blown away by sub-sonic domestically manufactured Ukrainian anti-ship missiles that do not even have terrain following.

I think the problem is western weapons do what we say they do and russia sez what they would like their weapons to do but frequently they fail to live up to expectation. This doesn't mean patriots would shoot down missles like storm shadow (no clue) but russia kinzhals missles are not all russia would like to think they are. in action.

 

[kage69]

Here's some interesting commentary on the artillery contest.
Russia may have shells, but do they have enough barrels?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1702657716986991038

Exactly, this has been a huge deficiency since before the invasion. They made a lot of those things damn near smoothbores I bet. Unless they start getting field pieces from China, I don't see how their artillery corps can stay active much longer. They are getting chewed up by the Ukrainians more now, thanks to drones and having limited or no counter battery fire. Then add in the attrition rate for barrel wear. It's nice to think we might see a sudden decline in the number of Ukrainian KIA soon, what I'm hoping for anyway.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting fresh armor to the field, better armed as well as able to take a hit and save the crew. They sure love the MRAP and Bradley. Abrams is there now too isn't it? Leopard 2s have been doing well sounds like. I read 5 lost, ~10 disabled, out of 71. Ukraine said no KIA though, which is certainly possible and if true wow, what a difference from the turret toss.

 

[K1052]

Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting fresh armor to the field, better armed as well as able to take a hit and save the crew. They sure love the MRAP and Bradley. Abrams is there now too isn't it? Leopard 2s have been doing well sounds like. I read 5 lost, ~10 disabled, out of 71. Ukraine said no KIA though, which is certainly possible and if true wow, what a difference from the turret toss.

Abrams is still in Germany, AFU requested more training time. That western equipment doesn't automatically incinerate you and your buddies when it takes a hit is surely one reason Ukrainian crews hold it in high regard. Oddly crews also perform better when they think they aren't being rolled out onto the field in a mobile crematorium.

 

[RnR_au]

Here's some interesting commentary on the artillery contest.
Russia may have shells, but do they have enough barrels?

Multiple Russian sources on the ground are complaining about Russian arty. Ukrainians fire 1000's of shells, Russians respond with maybe 50 is a common complaint. Curiously the Russians always seem to have enough arty to lop a few shells on friendly positions.

 

[FireJack]

I love how Trump seems intent on rewarding everything Putin did.
Is the US, the supposed champion of democracy, just going to ignore the all the deaths, the war crimes, and immense destruction they caused in their totally unjustified war and say "good job"? These Trump cultists, and possibly the majority of Americans, are going to vote for a man who stands up for a brutal and evil dictator and punish Ukraine? Can people not see what and evil and egotistical person Trump is?