NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
23,420
1,652
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I think the seasonality has yet to be really proven out, right now it seems like typical human pattern finding and confirmation bias. The peaks have not lined up with other seasonal viruses that well. And the summer peak YoY didnt really line up.

I think expecting it to become seasonal is a fair assumption, but dont think it explains as much as currently stated.
We certainly could use more data. There really has only been one year of good data in the studies that are out so far. I'll give you that. But, virtually all studies are showing a small but measurable impact on some weather variables which include temperature, humidity, and amount of sun exposure. Human choices are a far bigger influence though--weather is just a small but often overlooked factor.

Here is one recent example of many studies on the issue:
"Warmer temperature and moderate outdoor ultraviolet exposure result in a slight reduction in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, changes in weather or air pollution alone are not enough to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with other factors having greater effects."
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,802
4,894
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Seasonality is all based on the idea that people tend to share more indoor space during holidays and events. Flu season usually is the colder months, but since COVID is so much more transmissible, we saw spikes during Summer months after the 4th of July.
Yeah, but there is more to seasonality with the flu than just people being indoors more. It transmits slower and is less infectious in warmer temperatures. Flu season typically gets worse after the holidays through Jan and Feb, but COVID dropped like a rock last year during those months.

I am not saying its not seasonal, just that it really hasn't created a real obvious seasonal profile yet.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,802
4,894
136
We certainly could use more data. There really has only been one year of good data in the studies that are out so far. I'll give you that. But, virtually all studies are showing a small but measurable impact on some weather variables which include temperature, humidity, and amount of sun exposure. Human choices are a far bigger influence though--weather is just a small but often overlooked factor.

Here is one recent example of many studies on the issue:
"Warmer temperature and moderate outdoor ultraviolet exposure result in a slight reduction in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, changes in weather or air pollution alone are not enough to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with other factors having greater effects."
Yeah, that was basically my point. It makes sense that there is some seasonality, especially due to humidity, but I think it's effect is being overstated verses the current data.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,062
1,539
126
Yeah, but there is more to seasonality with the flu than just people being indoors more. It transmits slower and is less infectious in warmer temperatures. Flu season typically gets worse after the holidays through Jan and Feb, but COVID dropped like a rock last year during those months.

I am not saying its not seasonal, just that it really hasn't created a real obvious seasonal profile yet.
COVID dropped like a rock because medical staff and first responders started getting vaxxed in December.

We were still on lockdown and the older crowd started shortly after. It was mostly the lockdown paired with vaccinations and deaths/recoveries following Xmas gatherings that cleared things up by February.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
23,420
1,652
126
COVID dropped like a rock because medical staff and first responders started getting vaxxed in December.
Covid has a ~2 to 3 month long surge. Look at almost any location and the peaks are that long. I don't think the exact cause has been determined yet. But, I suspect that it is just so fast at spreading that it burns itself out. A spark occurs, you catch it, it spreads fast to your coworkers and family, they spread it to their coworkers and family, but then it burns out. This last group has few people to spread it to. Their coworkers and family are already infected. So, it dies out until another spark.

I don't think you can really claim that drop was due to early vaccination of a few people.
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
9,579
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Been obvious for a while that this is happening - I know two people whose entire households have become infected after the children contracted it at school (the same school in both cases) and at least one of the parents involved is really struggling with COVID.


confirmed cases have risen steadily in October with Covid rates soaring among largely unvaccinated secondary schoolchildren, and infections spilling over into older, more vulnerable age groups.

The spread of infections beyond younger people has driven up cases in those aged 50 and over, a trend that has started to push up hospitalisations and death rates.
Am not at all sure that opening schools was a good idea. Clearly it's a trade-off between children's education and the lives of the elderly and vulnerable. But as an old geezer (who went to the crappiest of crappy schools so didn't learn anything in the classroom anyway) I am biased towards worrying about the latter.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,802
4,894
136
Been obvious for a while that this is happening - I know two people whose entire households have become infected after the children contracted it at school (the same school in both cases) and at least one of the parents involved is really struggling with COVID.




Am not at all sure that opening schools was a good idea. Clearly it's a trade-off between children's education and the lives of the elderly and vulnerable. But as an old geezer (who went to the crappiest of crappy schools so didn't learn anything in the classroom anyway) I am biased towards worrying about the latter.
Didn't the UK also say they weren't going to vaccinate young kids?
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,062
1,539
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I don't think you can really claim that drop was due to early vaccination of a few people.
Read the rest of what I wrote. It was the beginning of the vaxxing paired with the return to lock down after the holidays. I was just saying that vaccinations only started the last week of December because it encouraged people to continue staying away since availability was on the horizon for the elderly. (so the smart ones kept sheltering in place)
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,802
4,894
136
Read the rest of what I wrote. It was the beginning of the vaxxing paired with the return to lock down after the holidays. I was just saying that vaccinations only started the last week of December because it encouraged people to continue staying away since availability was on the horizon for the elderly. (so the smart ones kept sheltering in place)
Where in the US returned to a lock down after the Holidays? IIRC, the drop also started between Christmas and NYE, which is sooner than you'd expect just from the holidays ending.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,062
1,539
126
Where in the US returned to a lock down after the Holidays? IIRC, the drop also started between Christmas and NYE, which is sooner than you'd expect just from the holidays ending.
I don't mean absolute lock down....but let's just say the cities around here started opening up around March/April and people were back to sex in the streets by May.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
23,420
1,652
126
Read the rest of what I wrote. It was the beginning of the vaxxing paired with the return to lock down after the holidays. I was just saying that vaccinations only started the last week of December because it encouraged people to continue staying away since availability was on the horizon for the elderly. (so the smart ones kept sheltering in place)
Your presentation was not very clear. You said (A) happened because of (B). Then in a separate paragraph, you said mostly (A) happened because of (C). It seems quite confusing to me which one you believe.

But in reality, (A) happened because (A) happens on its own with or without (B) or (C). This can be shown by all the other countries and other scenarios when (A) happens separately from (B) or (C).
 

manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
9,386
795
126
Where in the US returned to a lock down after the Holidays? IIRC, the drop also started between Christmas and NYE, which is sooner than you'd expect just from the holidays ending.
Scarpozzi has a weird time line; I don't think anywhere in the U.S. "returned" to lock down after the holidays. Without checking, new confirmed daily infections may have peaked by NYE but I would hardly call that a "drop" when COVID-19 continued to rage on throughout January.

IIRC Florida was basically "fully open" since September, and never even bothered with mitigations during the winter (partly because they dodged the worst of it until delta). Other states followed suit by loosening up in the fall. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you had California with the most restrictions. Night clubs and card rooms were closed, bars I believe were still closed until last spring. But most other businesses were open, so I'd assert there were no true lock downs in the U.S. since summer 2020. You'd have to look at AU or NZ to know what a lock down is.

As dullard explained, every substantial COVID surge globally is followed by relative calm once the infection chains burn themselves out.
 

pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
9,579
4,289
136
Didn't the UK also say they weren't going to vaccinate young kids?

As far as I'm aware they haven't made their minds up yet.

Seems being infected doesn't give you particularly long-lasting immunity either...though maybe nor does being vaccinated. I find this article a bit confusing.



I mean it says

New analysis has suggested that unvaccinated individuals should expect to be reinfected with Covid-19 every 16 months, on average.
But also

“Certainly in the healthcare workers that we’ve been studying, there are many people who had moderately decent levels of antibodies who have been, in some cases, previously infected and double-dose vaccinated, who have gone down with symptomatic infections,” said Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
61,697
9,408
126
www.uovalor.com
Considering the risk of getting heart complications for kids is higher than risk of getting covid complication I really think at the very least they should keep the vaccine optional for young kids. It's completely unethical and selfish to force it with the premise that you want to protect OTHERS while putting them at risk. Maybe that's what they're doing, I'm not sure, but I have a feeling it will be forced just like rest of us.

There's already a kid that died a few days ago from heart failure. Don't get me wrong it's good that there is trials and that it is getting approved, as kids that have breathing related conditions are probably better off getting it, but kids with no conditions should probably hold off until they're older.
 

H T C

Senior member
Nov 7, 2018
420
246
86
Been obvious for a while that this is happening - I know two people whose entire households have become infected after the children contracted it at school (the same school in both cases) and at least one of the parents involved is really struggling with COVID.




Am not at all sure that opening schools was a good idea. Clearly it's a trade-off between children's education and the lives of the elderly and vulnerable. But as an old geezer (who went to the crappiest of crappy schools so didn't learn anything in the classroom anyway) I am biased towards worrying about the latter.

And this is why Portugal tried to hard to get kids aged 12+ to get vaccinated BEFORE starting school: for the most part we succeeded, with 84% of those aged 12 to 17 already having both doses.

The same way we vaccinated adults to protect the elderly, we should vaccinate ALL children to protect ALL adults. Right now, we can't vaccinate kids below 12 years old but, when approved, we should get them vaccinated AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. Not to protect the kids: to help protect EVERYONE ELSE.

The higher the vaccination rate among ALL people, including children, the smaller the chances this damned virus has to screw us up.

Tomorrow, our vaccination report will be updated. This is the one posted last Wednesday:

Screenshot from 2021-10-13 16-56-20.png

- top left --- people with @ least one dose
- top right --- people fully vaccinated: includes people with just one dose that had a previous COVID infection as well as people that took the single dose vaccine
- middle left --- age groups
- middle center --- @ least one dose: people and percentage
- middle right --- fully vaccinated: people and percentage
- bottom left --- doses the country has received
- bottom right --- doses the country has administered
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
9,579
4,289
136
Considering the risk of getting heart complications for kids is higher than risk of getting covid complication I really think at the very least they should keep the vaccine optional for young kids. It's completely unethical and selfish to force it with the premise that you want to protect OTHERS while putting them at risk. Maybe that's what they're doing, I'm not sure, but I have a feeling it will be forced just like rest of us.

There's already a kid that died a few days ago from heart failure. Don't get me wrong it's good that there is trials and that it is getting approved, as kids that have breathing related conditions are probably better off getting it, but kids with no conditions should probably hold off until they're older.

Where are you getting the data that says the risk of vaccination bad-effects is greater than that of COVID complications, for children?

I'm not saying for certain that you are wrong, but I just haven't seen any figures that demonstrate that to definitively be the case.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
61,697
9,408
126
www.uovalor.com
Where are you getting the data that says the risk of vaccination bad-effects is greater than that of COVID complications, for children?

I'm not saying for certain that you are wrong, but I just haven't seen any figures that demonstrate that to definitively be the case.
Don't recall exactly since I never saved it but there was a study outlining the risk of covid vs vaccine related heart issues and the heart issues was actually way higher.

Not the best since it comes from two different sources and not sure if the age groups are even the same but according to these articles, risk of vaccine related issue is 1 in 20,000 and risk of being hospitalized with covid is 1 in ~33,000 (3 in 100,000). Actually higher than I thought though...


The original study was from one source and actually outlined both percentages side by side.

There has also been one death related to the vaccine.


I would also worry about the long term effects for those that get heart complications even if they recover.
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
9,579
4,289
136
Considering the risk of getting heart complications for kids is higher than risk of getting covid complication I really think at the very least they should keep the vaccine optional for young kids. It's completely unethical and selfish to force it with the premise that you want to protect OTHERS while putting them at risk. Maybe that's what they're doing, I'm not sure, but I have a feeling it will be forced just like rest of us.

There's already a kid that died a few days ago from heart failure. Don't get me wrong it's good that there is trials and that it is getting approved, as kids that have breathing related conditions are probably better off getting it, but kids with no conditions should probably hold off until they're older.
I suspect you are over-stating the danger of the vaccine to children. And at one point it was thought that children were particularly prone to long Covid. I could equally cite a few cases of children (with no existing diagnosed health conditions) dying from Covid (I recall reading about two such cases, only a few miles from me).

It would be a case of comparing two very small numbers, perhaps a difficult calculation to make with any confidence, which is why, I would imagine, it's taken so long for them to go ahead with vaccinations for children (apparently the UK has just started offering them to 11-15 year olds).

But it's true there would be a tricky moral dilemma if it turned out to be the case that the benefit-to-risk ratio for children were less than one (or even if it were anything less than a largish number).
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
61,697
9,408
126
www.uovalor.com
Yeah I just think they need to really study this more before they make any mandates, if they plan to. Though I don't agree with mandates period... Should be 100% a choice, with zero consequences or loss of any rights or job etc. Personally I chose to get the shot, lot of people in my age group were getting hit hard enough. Though I don't really care if some people around me don't have it. I trust that it's effective enough to protect me either way. The heart risk is also lower the older you are. What they need to figure out is the exact point that the risk of covid vs vaccine crosses though and that will determine the minimum age where the vaccine does make sense.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,802
4,894
136
Don't recall exactly since I never saved it but there was a study outlining the risk of covid vs vaccine related heart issues and the heart issues was actually way higher.

Not the best since it comes from two different sources and not sure if the age groups are even the same but according to these articles, risk of vaccine related issue is 1 in 20,000 and risk of being hospitalized with covid is 1 in ~33,000 (3 in 100,000). Actually higher than I thought though...


The original study was from one source and actually outlined both percentages side by side.

There has also been one death related to the vaccine.


I would also worry about the long term effects for those that get heart complications even if they recover.
At least 500 kids have died of COVID.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,802
4,894
136
I suspect you are over-stating the danger of the vaccine to children. And at one point it was thought that children were particularly prone to long Covid. I could equally cite a few cases of children (with no existing diagnosed health conditions) dying from Covid (I recall reading about two such cases, only a few miles from me).

It would be a case of comparing two very small numbers, perhaps a difficult calculation to make with any confidence, which is why, I would imagine, it's taken so long for them to go ahead with vaccinations for children (apparently the UK has just started offering them to 11-15 year olds).

But it's true there would be a tricky moral dilemma if it turned out to be the case that the benefit-to-risk ratio for children were less than one (or even if it were anything less than a largish number).
As someone that lost a parent to a virus when I was kid, calculations that look solely at individual physical, short term outcomes are only looking at a very small part of the puzzle. If I could've taken a vaccine with a 1 in 1,000,000 case of giving me some symptoms for a month or two and a 1 in 10,000,000 chance of death I would've taken in a heart beat to keep him from dying.

Not to mention, the benefits of keeping schools open, getting rid of quarantines, masking, etc etc

Through this experience, though, I have learned that some medical "ethics" people would rather kill a million passively than risk killing one actively.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,802
4,894
136
Yeah I just think they need to really study this more before they make any mandates, if they plan to. Though I don't agree with mandates period... Should be 100% a choice, with zero consequences or loss of any rights or job etc. Personally I chose to get the shot, lot of people in my age group were getting hit hard enough. Though I don't really care if some people around me don't have it. I trust that it's effective enough to protect me either way. The heart risk is also lower the older you are. What they need to figure out is the exact point that the risk of covid vs vaccine crosses though and that will determine the minimum age where the vaccine does make sense.
The younger kids will have a smaller dose, which will hopefully help with the myocarditis.
 

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