Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes + WCL Discussion Threads

[Tigerick]

Wildcat Lake (WCL) Specs

Intel Wildcat Lake (WCL) is upcoming mobile SoC replacing Raptor Lake-U. WCL consists of 2 tiles: compute tile and PCD tile. It is true single die consists of CPU, GPU and NPU that is fabbed by 18-A process. Last time I checked, PCD tile is fabbed by TSMC N6 process. They are connected through UCIe, not D2D; a first from Intel. Expecting launching in Q1 2026.

		Intel Raptor Lake U	Intel Wildcat Lake 15W?	Intel Lunar Lake		Intel Panther Lake 4+0+4
Launch Date		Q1-2024	Q2-2026	Q3-2024		Q1-2026
Model		Intel 150U	Intel Core 7	Core Ultra 7 268V		Core Ultra 7 365
Dies		2	2	2		3
Node		Intel 7 + ?	Intel 18-A + TSMC N6	TSMC N3B + N6		Intel 18-A + Intel 3 + TSMC N6
CPU		2 P-core + 8 E-cores	2 P-core + 4 LP E-cores	4 P-core + 4 LP E-cores		4 P-core + 4 LP E-cores
Threads		12	6	8		8
Max Clock		5.4 GHz	?	5 GHz		4.8 GHz
L3 Cache		12 MB		12 MB		12 MB
TDP		15 - 55 W	15 W ?	17 - 37 W		25 - 55 W
Memory		128-bit LPDDR5-5200	64-bit LPDDR5	128-bit LPDDR5x-8533		128-bit LPDDR5x-7467
Size		96 GB		32 GB		128 GB
Bandwidth				136 GB/s
GPU		Intel Graphics	Intel Graphics	Arc 140V		Intel Graphics
RT		No	No	YES		YES
EU / Xe		96 EU	2 Xe	8 Xe		4 Xe
Max Clock		1.3 GHz	?	2 GHz		2.5 GHz
NPU		GNA 3.0	18 TOPS	48 TOPS		49 TOPS

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.

 

[Khato]

BTW, Lisa was at the same conference, and she did not mention any shortages on her end. So what is unclear is if these are (for now) mostly Intel specific or industry wide.

Yeah, quite impossible to say.

Intel has a reason to say that demand outstrips supply - namely that's good news for Intel Foundry.

Everyone else? Well, especially for those whose stock price bears little relation to their current financials and is entirely dependent on expectations of massive growth... Yeah, saying that you're supply constrained isn't something you want to even hint at.

 

[dullard]

I have not gone through the full transcript, but I came across a quote from that conference where the Intel presenter said the shortages would persist through Q1, Q1 being the worst.

BTW, Lisa was at the same conference, and she did not mention any shortages on her end. So what is unclear is if these are (for now) mostly Intel specific or industry wide.

Further out, 1-3 years, TSMC CEO did say that people are coming to him requesting more wafers that he can deliver.

Long term supply agreements will impact each company differently. Any company who had plenty of supplies contracted through 2027 would be way differently impacted than a company whose supply contracts ran through 2025. Not that 2025 or 2027 apply to any company in particular (I don't know what their contracts state). That is just an example.

"Samsung and SK Hynix, who together are responsible for 70% of the DRAM market, have signalled their reluctance and inability, respectively, to sufficiently expand memory production. And that has lead some industry observers to conclude the crisis will run through 2028, and perhaps even beyond."
https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/me...hynix-opt-to-minimize-the-risk-of-oversupply/

"Supply of commodity memory is set to worsen in early 2026, and normalization is unlikely before 2027 – 2028 when more production capacity emerges"
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...6-as-dram-and-nand-prices-double-in-one-month

"What we have heard is that memory shortages across all products, including DDR5 and DDR4 memory, will last till at least Q4 2027. We haven't even entered 2026 yet, and our sources are saying that these shortages will last for two years from now. This means that consumers shouldn't expect prices of various tech products to return to normal till late 2027 or even 2028."
https://wccftech.com/memory-ddr5-ddr4-shortages-last-till-q4-2027-higher-prices-throughout-2026/

"Building significant new capacity takes years, so substantial relief is unlikely before late 2027 or 2028."
https://www.techpowerup.com/343518/...rted-major-price-hikes-ahead-warns-team-group

The news stories point to Q1 2026 being the worst memory shortage and the biggest price spikes. But, that doesn't mean the shortage will be over after Q1.

 

[Thunder 57]

Sad part is that they had the chance to make a halo part on Intel 7 with Bartlett Lake. Re-enabled AVX512, ECC, and resolve the crashing issue with the platform and they could have sold it for a premium as both a Xeon and a K series.

Why would they make Bartlett Lake with 12 P cores? I find this as amusing as the 9950X3D2. People think what they want but actually wouldn't want it. BTW the forum is crawling again I'm surprised that hasen't been brought up in the "Scraping" thread".

 

[Doug S]

Intel did not order enough TSMC tiles for Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake. And Intel could not get enough wafers for Granite Rapids. Basically Intel is selling everything it has. With the industry-wide shortage of rare earths, substrates, and wafers (caused by AI, data centers, and politics) I expect this to go on for at least another year. Intel shot itself in the foot though by underordering earlier.

Intel admits it needs more Core Ultra 200-series wafers — 'If we had more Lunar Lake wafers, we would be selling more Lunar Lake'

Cannot get enough wafers from TSMC.

www.tomshardware.com

If there ever was a time to f-up and not be able to deliver enough PC CPUs now is it. The huge spike in DRAM prices and DRAM shortages (and to a lesser extent for NAND as well) for the next couple years are going to significantly reduce PC demand.

The lower ranges of the market will be hit harder, because DRAM already makes up a higher percentage of the total system BOM, because a typical $1200 PC might ship with more RAM than a typical $300 PC, but not 4x as much.

 

[DrMrLordX]

The reality will disappoint both sides: Intel did sell Panther Lake chips in 2025, but not many.

Wasn't that the expectation? That Intel would push a very limited amount of Panther Lake out the door to fulfill their 2025 promise, but that the supplies would be very low until ramping in 2026.

 

[dullard]

Wasn't that the expectation? That Intel would push a very limited amount of Panther Lake out the door to fulfill their 2025 promise, but that the supplies would be very low until ramping in 2026.

That is exactly the expectation. But, now go through the threads and you'll see the discussion points were far, far from that expectation.

Recent Examples: https://forums.anandtech.com/thread...2026-discussion-threads.2623246/post-41542684
https://forums.anandtech.com/thread...-wcl-discussion-threads.2606448/post-41527529

 

[LightningZ71]

Rumors were hot and heavy for the last year that Bartlett lake had a 12 P core SKU coming.

Why would they make Bartlett Lake with 12 P cores? I find this as amusing as the 9950X3D2. People think what they want but actually wouldn't want it. BTW the forum is crawling again I'm surprised that hasen't been brought up in the "Scraping" thread".

 

[regen1]

Intel did not order enough TSMC tiles for Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake. And Intel could not get enough wafers for Granite Rapids. Basically Intel is selling everything it has. With the industry-wide shortage of rare earths, substrates, and wafers (caused by AI, data centers, and politics) I expect this to go on for at least another year. Intel shot itself in the foot though by underordering earlier.

Intel admits it needs more Core Ultra 200-series wafers — 'If we had more Lunar Lake wafers, we would be selling more Lunar Lake'

Cannot get enough wafers from TSMC.

www.tomshardware.com

They are saying that they are mainly supply-limited, even on internal node products(mostly on 10nm/7 family for older and cheaper products for market, Intel 3(GNR still away from peak level ramp)).
Tomshardware's presentation/headline(by singling out somethings while ignoring other aspects and context) is misleading though.

Spoiler

2 Quarters earlier:

 

[Joe NYC]

They are saying that they are mainly supply-limited, even on internal node products(mostly on 10nm/7 family for older and cheaper products for market, Intel 3(GNR still away from peak level ramp)).
Tomshardware's presentation/headline(by singling out somethings while ignoring other aspects and context) is misleading though.

Spoiler

View attachment 134853

View attachment 134854


2 Quarters earlier:
View attachment 134856

Lisa made the same comments on server demand at the same conference, BTW, so Q3 must have seen a solid acceleration.

When he mentions Intel 10 demand, and the only product I can think of on Intel 10 is Ice Lake. Hard to believe customers are still buying Ice Lake at this time. When Ice Lake was released some 4-5 years ago, it was already, back then outclassed by Zen 2 Rome.

Another interesting comment was that Intel is planning to exit the lowest end of the client market, which would be Alder Lake and Raptor Lake, and John Pitzer said that AMD does not even compete in the lowest end of the client market.

Which would mean that laptops, like I have seen this week at US Staples, for $249, with 8GB of memory may disappear from the market.

Link to the transcript:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4850032-intel-corporation-intc-presents-at-ubs-global-technology-and-ai-conference-2025-transcript

 

[511]

Another interesting comment was that Intel is planning to exit the lowest end of the client market, which would be Alder Lake and Raptor Lake, and John Pitzer said that AMD does not even compete in the lowest end of the client market.

Not in Laptop I think this applies to only desktop cause WCL is lowest end client product

 

[Joe NYC]

Not in Laptop I think this applies to only desktop cause WCL is lowest end client product

I am not sure about this. Intel's lowest end products in both desktop and laptop (such as Chrome Books and lowest priced Windows) are Alder / Raptor based, monolithic. I don't think WCL will be hitting those same price points in laptop.

AMD CPUs disappearance from Chromebooks would corroborate what Pitzer said that AMD is not competing in this area.

 

[511]

I am not sure about this. Intel's lowest end products in both desktop and laptop (such as Chrome Books and lowest priced Windows) are Alder / Raptor based, monolithic. I don't think WCL will be hitting those same price points in laptop.

AMD CPUs disappearance from Chromebooks would corroborate what Pitzer said that AMD is not competing in this area.

WCL is monolithic 18A with N6 PCH N100 successor

 

[Joe NYC]

WCL is monolithic 18A with N6 PCH N100 successor

If WCL had the same or better cost than the cheapest Intel 7 CPUs, wouldn't the Intel exec say that they are planning on introducing WCL into that segment rather than saying they want to exit that segment?

 

[511]

If WCL had the same or better cost than the cheapest Intel 7 CPUs, wouldn't the Intel exec say that they are planning on introducing WCL into that segment rather than saying they want to exit that segment?

WCL is laptop only I don't think they have replacement for Desktop

 

[511]

If WCL had the same or better cost than the cheapest Intel 7 CPUs, wouldn't the Intel exec say that they are planning on introducing WCL into that segment rather than saying they want to exit that segment?

WCL is laptop only I don't think they have replacement for Desktop

 

[LightningZ71]

I read that as Intel walking away from the E-core only line of products, like the N series processors. We haven't seen anything close to that on a node more advanced than Intel7. We already know that I7 has a poor cost profile, so even with near 100% yields, it likely isn't making them money. Wildcat Lake likely fills most of their bottom of the line needs going forward.

AMD doesn't really fight for that market because they have a high floor for their wafer costs. If memory serves, they looked at doing a product with Samsung, but it died in development, likely due to their foundry issues.

Going forward, with memory costs being what they are, that low cost PC market will cease to exist as we know it.

 

[511]

Going forward, with memory costs being what they are, that low cost PC market will cease to exist as we know it.

Not in Laptop Space tbh

 

[regen1]

When he mentions Intel 10 demand, and the only product I can think of on Intel 10 is Ice Lake. Hard to believe customers are still buying Ice Lake at this time. When Ice Lake was released some 4-5 years ago, it was already, back then outclassed by Zen 2 Rome.

Yeah, could also be refering to 10nm/7 being the same family or the renaming of later improved versions(mid-cycle rebranding of 10nm ESF to Intel 7).

Another interesting comment was that Intel is planning to exit the lowest end of the client market, which would be Alder Lake and Raptor Lake, and John Pitzer said that AMD does not even compete in the lowest end of the client market.

Which would mean that laptops, like I have seen this week at US Staples, for $249, with 8GB of memory may disappear from the market.

He said that they will "de-emphasize" the low end of PC market. Whether that means a complete exit remains to be seen(should be unlikely). They haven't produced Core Ultra "3"(like Ultra 5/7/9) branded SKUs for notebooks since the introduction of Ultra series(and up to now).
Should use WCL(is tiny and cheap) to cover the low end. It might not be as cheap(at least initially?) as e-core line-ups like ADL-N/Twin Lake but still should be way cheaper than the usual Ultra series price-brackets.


What isn't clear is why is GNR still on initial phase of ramping(to save some small percentage of margin ?). It would take some time for peak levels of ramp but why is the ramp up seemingly so slow ?

 

[511]

What isn't clear is why is GNR still on initial phase of ramping(to save some small percentage of margin ?). It would take some time for peak levels of ramp but why is the ramp up seemingly so slow ?

GNR is ramping slowly cause LBT Wants freaking margin

He said that they will "de-emphasize" the low end of PC market. Whether that means a complete exit remains to be seen(should be unlikely). They haven't produced Core Ultra "3"(like Ultra 5/7/9) branded SKUs for notebooks since the introduction of Ultra series(and up to now).
Should use WCL(is tiny and cheap) to cover the low end. It might not be as cheap(at least initially?) as e-core line-ups like ADL-N/Twin Lake but still should be way cheaper than the usual Ultra series price-brackets.

i wouldn't be suprised if WCL ends up being similar in cost to N100 cause I7 is too expensive

 

[LightningZ71]

Not in Laptop Space tbh

Those devices still use RAM. 8GB configurations are roughly the baseline these days, and those use lower density modules. With ram in short supply, and manufacturers pushing for margin, they'll be pushing higher density packages like crazy. Existing contracts for RAM for those units will either be honored, or even bought back and reallocated.

 

[511]

Those devices still use RAM. 8GB configurations are roughly the baseline these days, and those use lower density modules. With ram in short supply, and manufacturers pushing for margin, they'll be pushing higher density packages like crazy. Existing contracts for RAM for those units will either be honored, or even bought back and reallocated.

The ASP will rise for all devices Apple will be able to withstand it cause they already charge insane prices but it will hurt margins

 

[regen1]

i wouldn't be suprised if WCL ends up being similar in cost to N100 cause I7 is too expensive

Yeah it could be close overall in cost but wafer ASPs for 18A could be lot higher than Intel 7. Retail price-positioning of WCL units could likely be somewhat higher than ADL-N counterparts(even without DRAM price crisis). Some of it could also be due to the performance and feature(I/O, media engine, iGPU, etc.) upgrades.

 

[511]

Yeah it could be close overall in cost but wafer ASPs for 18A could be lot higher than Intel 7. Retail price-positioning of WCL units could likely be somewhat higher than ADL-N counterparts(even without DRAM price crisis). Some of it could also be due to the performance and feature(I/O, media engine, iGPU, etc.) upgrades.

Everything is stripped down 2+4LPE+1 Media engine+low pci Lanes+2Xe3 Cores(yes) and don't forget Intel 7 vs 18A has like very large density gap

 

[Joe NYC]

Yeah it could be close overall in cost but wafer ASPs for 18A could be lot higher than Intel 7. Retail price-positioning of WCL units could likely be somewhat higher than ADL-N counterparts(even without DRAM price crisis). Some of it could also be due to the performance and feature(I/O, media engine, iGPU, etc.) upgrades.

Wafer pricing was also discussed. Specifically, that Intel foundry will charge much higher wafer prices for 18A wafers, which will then lead to foundry part moving toward breakeven.

Which will be fine for PTL, moving from LNL on TSMC N3B. But not so fine for the low end segment on Intel 7, since Intel is (internally) charging their product division artificially low prices.

 

[Doug S]

The ASP will rise for all devices Apple will be able to withstand it cause they already charge insane prices but it will hurt margins

Apple has for many years inked long term supply contracts for DRAM and NAND. They won't be affected in the coming year. Maybe in 2027, depends on how long term those contracts are and whether they are designed to fulfill their entire supply needs or they do a mix acquiring some at spot pricing.

Remember this is the company that basically cornered the market on NAND at one point during the iPod heyday through their aggressive contract supply strategies. Tim Cook nerds out over this sort of thing. Doesn't do as well during oversupply when prices are falling, but comes into its own in times like now.