I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[Commodus]

I still believe the status of the virus will have a lot to do with the election outcome. By November the seasonal flu should have kicked in and people will freak with confusing seasonal cold and flu symptoms with covid 19 symptoms. Especially with their kids might they get sick. Believe me, moms and dads will assume the worst when they or the kid develop a fever even though that fever is most likely the seasonal icky and not the covid. Will people freak-out enough to further question Donald Trump's handling of the virus?

As for the election itself, when I see in the news pictures of crowds of people on the beaches, at the universities, at events, in the bars, and in each photo maybe 10% are wearing face masks, I see those not wearing masks as Trump votes. We all know the people refusing to wear face masks will vote for Donald Trump. So in your average crowd of people I see at most 10% voting Joe Biden and 90+ % voting Donald Trump. Breaking it down by face masks, that is. You have to take me seriously on this because I feel this is how the election will play out. Going by the crowds and going by those not taking the pandemic seriously, that 90+ percent. We could see a Donald Trump election blowout nationwide. Another election shocker even worse than the shocker of 2016. A red electoral map similar to when Ronald Reagan swept the country and also back in 1972 when Richard Nixon swept the country. This could happen.
View attachment 29048

That's not a very good way to judge things, as it doesn't cover the full spectrum of people.

Remember, many Democrat supporters aren't going to these beaches or bars. They respect science and are either staying in or avoiding areas where it's difficult to keep their distance. You're seeing only those people willing to take the risk (or, in the case of many Trump supporters, don't understand the risk) to indulge in a leisure activity.

Remember, a good survey is genuinely representative of the broader population. This isn't; it's a self-selected group of people. The actual vote will be much closer, whoever wins.

 

[K1052]

The big difference is Trump has a record at this point. He had no record of governance in 2016. Voters were not impressed in 2018 with the results of his first two years and showed up at the polls. It’s hard to argue he has improved his image or results since then.

Running as the outsider during your 4th year in office is indeed somewhat awkward. It relies entirely on selling voters that none of what's happened is your fault which is a slight departure from "I alone can fix it". The likely shape and sound of a 2nd Trump term isn't theoretical like it was before.

 

[Ajay]

Some people are arguing that this election is more like 2018 than it is like 2016. They could have a point.

Man, I sure hope so. I am watching/reading less news. The orange menace is ramping up the hate and division so much that I simply can't stand it. I would to be happy to have my taxes raised to build a prison him in orbit - he could only talk when NASA contacts him for health checks.

 

[Jhhnn]

Some people are arguing that this election is more like 2018 than it is like 2016. They could have a point.

Of course it is. 2018 was just a taste of things to come.

 

[sportage]

That's not a very good way to judge things, as it doesn't cover the full spectrum of people.

Remember, many Democrat supporters aren't going to these beaches or bars. They respect science and are either staying in or avoiding areas where it's difficult to keep their distance. You're seeing only those people willing to take the risk (or, in the case of many Trump supporters, don't understand the risk) to indulge in a leisure activity.

Remember, a good survey is genuinely representative of the broader population. This isn't; it's a self-selected group of people. The actual vote will be much closer, whoever wins.

I hope you're right. I worry.
PS. Most of these people are young people, beach goers and college dorms. And they typically do not vote, lets hope.

 

[Jhhnn]

Running as the outsider during your 4th year in office is indeed somewhat awkward. It relies entirely on selling voters that none of what's happened is your fault which is a slight departure from "I alone can fix it". The likely shape and sound of a 2nd Trump term isn't theoretical like it was before.

The shape & sound of a Trump first term were whatever his voters imagined them to be in 2016. Their perceptions of his opponent were also total fantasy.

 

[K1052]

The shape & sound of a Trump first term were whatever his voters imagined them to be in 2016. Their perceptions of his opponent were also total fantasy.

For some, even most, of his voters yes. He got 46% in 2016 and cannot afford to shed any support at all since Biden is outperforming Clinton and the 3rd party vote might be half (or less) of 2016.

 

[Wreckem]

Actually, I see the defining issue now shifting from Covid to domestic unrest. I think this should be a concerning trend for Biden. No matter how absurd it is, Trump is projecting *his* America onto what it will be like if Biden wins, and amazingly, it seems to be an effective tactic. Biden finally addressed this a couple of day ago, but he is behind the curve in denouncing the violence. It doesnt help that most of the violence and unrest is in cities run by Democratic mayors.

Covid could of course become the dominant issue again if there is a major new outbreak, with a lot of hospitalizations and deaths. (yes, I know we are already in a major outbreak, but hospitalizations and deaths seem to be generally on the decline)

Additionally Trump is manipulating both the CDC and the FDA to minimize the cases (less testing) and force a vaccine through before the election.

Just sit back and wait/watch. Covid is ripping its way across college campuses and schools nationwide. Even in middle America. I’m fact more so in middle America. In deep red states. With Labor Day up and this spike in cases from colleges and schools will likely lead to as Trumpians call them flare up. The US will be on fire with Covid again by the end of September. And we aren’t actually anywhere near where we were on May pre surge in June.

 

[Jhhnn]

For some, even most, of his voters yes. He got 46% in 2016 and cannot afford to shed any support at all since Biden is outperforming Clinton and the 3rd party vote might be half (or less) of 2016.

Dem turnout was also weak. I mean, she was going to win anyway, right? The inconceivability of Trump let him win. That won't happen this time. nuh-uhh.

 

[K1052]

Dem turnout was also weak. I mean, she was going to win anyway, right? The inconceivability of Trump let him win. That won't happen this time. nuh-uhh.

Yes in 16. I'll be convinced of Dem complacency when I actually hear some instead of the sound of pants being loaded at the sight of a Biden +6 poll.

 

[Jhhnn]

Yes in 16. I'll be convinced of Dem complacency when I actually hear some instead of the sound of pants being loaded at the sight of a Biden +6 poll.

They do get a bit overwrought, huh? I think Biden has this because Dem voters are going to show up in record numbers to kick Trump's ass. There's no divisive bullshit & no distractions. Nobody who feels that way will change their mind, either.

 

[nickqt]

They do get a bit overwrought, huh? I think Biden has this because Dem voters are going to show up in record numbers to kick Trump's ass. There's no divisive bullshit & no distractions. Nobody who feels that way will change their mind, either.

I think that if Democrats "show up", they can win.

My fear is that Democrats "stay home" and vote by mail.

In case anyone has missed it, Trump has stated that mail-in ballots are "fraudulent", and has actively started to disrupt the USPS from being able to deliver ballots in either direction.

Knowing who Trump is, that means that mail-in ballots ARE going to be tampered with by the Federal government whenever the Federal government has possession of those ballots.

Or, to put it another way. Do you think there was shenanigans in FL in 2000 and OH in 2004? How about GA in 2018? Atlanta metro in 2020 (long waits/lines)?

Red state Governors and SoSs know that Trump will have their back regarding the 2020 election. Why wouldn't they do what they've done in the past, this time around? How much easier would it be for ballots that aren't cast at an election precinct be to tampered with by state authorities that want to tamper with them?

And that leaves out Red state Governors and SoSs from interfering with election precincts so that on election day, there are few precincts for populated cities that tend to vote for the (D) candidate. Now add the lack of poll workers (who are usually seniors who are going to be sitting at home instead of getting breathed on)...just look at Atlanta metro lines/waits during the 2020 primary.

This election is going to be full of bullshit, and because of Gerrymandering and the Electoral College, Democrats ALWAYS have to outperform Republicans by large margins to win an election. Why anyone would assume 2020 is going to be like 2018, when the situation on the ground is totally fucked in comparison, confuses and concerns me.

I will say it over and over.

Vote IN PERSON if able, during Early Voting if your state has it. Thinking your ballot is safe if mailed and handled by Trumps USPS, or Red state Governors/SoSs is a mistake. Call me paranoid if you want, although I won't believe you.

A vote cast at an actual precinct is going to be a lot safer, and defacto more valuable than a vote cast on a piece of paper being handled by Dejoy, traveling over roads controlled by Red state Governors/SoSs.

 

[emperus]

Part of me is nervous about the election, but the numbers guy in me thinks it would be very hard for Trump to win. Trump barely beat a despised Hilary Clinton, and since then, a lot of people have regretted voting for him and a lot of people can't wait to vote against him. I don't know anyone who voted for Hilary who now wishes they voted for Trump. I just don't see how he closes the gap (well outside of cheating which I'm sure he'll do). I was becoming skeptical of the numbers side of me but I saw this today.

Trump has slipped among key groups that backed him in 2016

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-100048032.html

But I think everyone should vote, vote early and if you do mail in a ballot, make sure it was received. I'm in Mass. and mailed in a request for a mail in Ballot a month ago and the state never received it. Went in to vote for the primary today and sent in another request for a mail in Ballot. I hesitate to say it's the USPS, but ....

 

[Jhhnn]

I think that if Democrats "show up", they can win.

My fear is that Democrats "stay home" and vote by mail.

In case anyone has missed it, Trump has stated that mail-in ballots are "fraudulent", and has actively started to disrupt the USPS from being able to deliver ballots in either direction.

Knowing who Trump is, that means that mail-in ballots ARE going to be tampered with by the Federal government whenever the Federal government has possession of those ballots.

Or, to put it another way. Do you think there was shenanigans in FL in 2000 and OH in 2004? How about GA in 2018? Atlanta metro in 2020 (long waits/lines)?

Red state Governors and SoSs know that Trump will have their back regarding the 2020 election. Why wouldn't they do what they've done in the past, this time around? How much easier would it be for ballots that aren't cast at an election precinct be to tampered with by state authorities that want to tamper with them?

And that leaves out Red state Governors and SoSs from interfering with election precincts so that on election day, there are few precincts for populated cities that tend to vote for the (D) candidate. Now add the lack of poll workers (who are usually seniors who are going to be sitting at home instead of getting breathed on)...just look at Atlanta metro lines/waits during the 2020 primary.

This election is going to be full of bullshit, and because of Gerrymandering and the Electoral College, Democrats ALWAYS have to outperform Republicans by large margins to win an election. Why anyone would assume 2020 is going to be like 2018, when the situation on the ground is totally fucked in comparison, confuses and concerns me.

I will say it over and over.

Vote IN PERSON if able, during Early Voting if your state has it. Thinking your ballot is safe if mailed and handled by Trumps USPS, or Red state Governors/SoSs is a mistake. Call me paranoid if you want, although I won't believe you.

A vote cast at an actual precinct is going to be a lot safer, and defacto more valuable than a vote cast on a piece of paper being handled by Dejoy, traveling over roads controlled by Red state Governors/SoSs.

You're smarter than that. Don't play into the fear. First off, postal workers won't play into it because Trump threatens their jobs. I figure they'll deliver every ballot they can & bend the rules to do it, from facility managers on down. I don't think DeJoy can slow delivery to the point where ballots mailed in a very timely fashion won't be delivered on time. The notion that state authorities will interfere is preposterous. Postal ballots are handled in house & delivered directly to the county election board. Whatever DeJoy was cooking up has been cock blocked.

The other side of it is that seniors, Generally trending GOP, often vote by mail & have for years. The GOP doesn't want to screw that up. People often have other options, like 24/7 drop boxes, drop offs at early voting locations & at the election board. Here in CO, where we vote by mail, they have people waiting out front on election day & earlier to take your ballot as you drive by. Everybody should explore the actual options available to them before opting to vote in person.

 

[nickqt]

You're smarter than that. Don't play into the fear. First off, postal workers won't play into it because Trump threatens their jobs. I figure they'll deliver every ballot they can & bend the rules to do it, from facility managers on down. I don't think DeJoy can slow delivery to the point where ballots mailed in a very timely fashion won't be delivered on time. The notion that state authorities will interfere is preposterous. Postal ballots are handled in house & delivered directly to the county election board. Whatever DeJoy was cooking up has been cock blocked.

The other side of it is that seniors, Generally trending GOP, often vote by mail & have for years. The GOP doesn't want to screw that up. People often have other options, like 24/7 drop boxes, drop offs at early voting locations & at the election board. Here in CO, where we vote by mail, they have people waiting out front on election day & earlier to take your ballot as you drive by. Everybody should explore the actual options available to them before opting to vote in person.

It's not fear. Or paranoia.When authoritarians tell me they're planning on destroying the country for their own benefit, I believe them and look at their past and current actions.

If you think a Governor and SoS can interfere with an election, then why assume it's not going to happen when the President has said that he'll back you up with your interference?

We're not dealing with typical ratfucking right now. We're dealing with an outloud Social Dominator who has fully exercised his grasp of his followers, and their adherence to authoritarianism. He, hourly, tells his right-wing authoritarian followers exactly what they need to hear to encourage them to make overt acts on behalf of the Social Dominator.

I mean, the election hasn't even started anywhere yet. Not one ballot has been filled out, and USPS, State Governors/SoSs and Camoshirt right-wing authoritarians know what is expected of them by their rightful authority figure. The President stated that he'd pay "the legal fees" of his supporters assaulting political opponents in 2016. He's commuted sentences of people who've pled guilty to committing crimes on his behalf. And he's now defending a child who kills his political opponents on the streets. He said he could murder someone in public and not lose a voter, and that statement wasn't actually about himself, but about the loyalty he expects from his followers.

What else does he have to do for people to see that he is absolutely serious about winning at all costs? He doesn't want calm, he wants chaos. A strong stock market is a signal to elites that he will make sure they get paid, and his right-wing authoritarian followers have heard him say, hourly, what is acceptable behavior by them and that he supports them in their violent acts.

I hope you're right and that I'll be proven paranoid by mid November.

 

[ondma]

I requested a mail in ballot, but now wish I hadnt, for the very reasons nickqt is talking about. I am older, and at higher risk for Covid, but I would gladly risk that to make sure my vote was tallied on election day with no chance of delay, loss or tampering. I requested the ballot a couple of months ago, before Trump made such an effort to discredit mail in voting. I definitely would not request one now, given the effort to discredit it. Fortunately I dont live in a red state, so I am relatively confident the vote will be counted accurately.

 

[nickqt]

I requested a mail in ballot, but now wish I hadnt, for the very reasons nickqt is talking about. I am older, and at higher risk for Covid, but I would gladly risk that to make sure my vote was tallied on election day with no chance of delay, loss or tampering. I requested the ballot a couple of months ago, before Trump made such an effort to discredit mail in voting. I definitely would not request one now, given the effort to discredit it. Fortunately I dont live in a red state, so I am relatively confident the vote will be counted accurately.

Turn that ballot in as early as possible, as close to inside the precinct as you can.

 

[Fenixgoon]

I requested a mail in ballot, but now wish I hadnt, for the very reasons nickqt is talking about. I am older, and at higher risk for Covid, but I would gladly risk that to make sure my vote was tallied on election day with no chance of delay, loss or tampering. I requested the ballot a couple of months ago, before Trump made such an effort to discredit mail in voting. I definitely would not request one now, given the effort to discredit it. Fortunately I dont live in a red state, so I am relatively confident the vote will be counted accurately.

Can you deliver it to your local board of elections in person? Cut out the middlemailman

 

[Thump553]

I think that if Democrats "show up", they can win.

My fear is that Democrats "stay home" and vote by mail.

In case anyone has missed it, Trump has stated that mail-in ballots are "fraudulent", and has actively started to disrupt the USPS from being able to deliver ballots in either direction.

Knowing who Trump is, that means that mail-in ballots ARE going to be tampered with by the Federal government whenever the Federal government has possession of those ballots.

Or, to put it another way. Do you think there was shenanigans in FL in 2000 and OH in 2004? How about GA in 2018? Atlanta metro in 2020 (long waits/lines)?

Red state Governors and SoSs know that Trump will have their back regarding the 2020 election. Why wouldn't they do what they've done in the past, this time around? How much easier would it be for ballots that aren't cast at an election precinct be to tampered with by state authorities that want to tamper with them?

And that leaves out Red state Governors and SoSs from interfering with election precincts so that on election day, there are few precincts for populated cities that tend to vote for the (D) candidate. Now add the lack of poll workers (who are usually seniors who are going to be sitting at home instead of getting breathed on)...just look at Atlanta metro lines/waits during the 2020 primary.

This election is going to be full of bullshit, and because of Gerrymandering and the Electoral College, Democrats ALWAYS have to outperform Republicans by large margins to win an election. Why anyone would assume 2020 is going to be like 2018, when the situation on the ground is totally fucked in comparison, confuses and concerns me.

I will say it over and over.

Vote IN PERSON if able, during Early Voting if your state has it. Thinking your ballot is safe if mailed and handled by Trumps USPS, or Red state Governors/SoSs is a mistake. Call me paranoid if you want, although I won't believe you.

A vote cast at an actual precinct is going to be a lot safer, and defacto more valuable than a vote cast on a piece of paper being handled by Dejoy, traveling over roads controlled by Red state Governors/SoSs.

Good point, but nearly all of the risk of by-mail voting can be eliminated by personally dropping off your ballot at the official collection box if at all possible. And if you vote by mail, BE SURE TO READ AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS TO A "T." For example, my state requires you to sign the outside of the ballot envelope (in a specific place) and that signature must match the "official" signature on file. I registered to vote here over 30 years ago, so my official signature is probably that old. You can be certain that the GOP is going to be contesting each and every mail-in ballot in battleground states-and not just those from "certain" zipcodes.

For a pool of 23 states, over 534,000 mail in ballots were successfully disqualified in primaries this year. Extrapolate that to the full nation and we are talking about at least a million ballots thrown out. Remember The Donald became president because of roughly 100,000 well placed votes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rejected-mail-ballots/2020/08/23/397fbe92-db3d-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.html

 

[K1052]

More national pollsters are reporting now. Biden +7 or +8 with little movement from previous surveys.

Ipsos results on what's important to voters:

But the poll showed the majority — 78% — remain “very” or “somewhat” concerned about the coronavirus. Nearly 60% said Trump is at least partly responsible for the protracted school and business closures due to the virus, as well as for the high number of coronavirus cases in the United States. More than 6 million Americans have been infected with the virus, more people than in any other country.

By contrast, most Americans do not see crime as a major priority and do not think it is increasing in their communities, the poll showed.

Only about 8% of American adults listed crime as a top priority for the country, compared with 30% who said it was the economy or jobs, and 16% who said it was the healthcare system.

And 62% of registered voters, including 62% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans, said crime was not increasing in their communities

According to the poll, 53% of American adults said they remain sympathetic to people out protesting against racial inequality, nearly unchanged from 52% in a similar poll that ran in late July.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...as-top-issue-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN25T1I3

 

[Commodus]

More national pollsters are reporting now. Biden +7 or +8 with little movement from previous surveys.

Ipsos results on what's important to voters:




https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...as-top-issue-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN25T1I3

That's good to hear. The latest vote polling is from just two sources, but it does suggest that if there was a bump from the RNC, it was short-lived. Now let's just hope this translates to votes in the right places.

As for the Ipsos/Reuters bit, it seems like Trump's pandering to racist fears of non-white crime is only really reaching a fraction of his base. I suspect even his more ardent supporters just aren't seeing this and are less concerned with store looters than... well, not dying from a virus.

I've heard it before, and it's still true: COVID-19 is Trump's ultimate foe. He can't make it go away by lying; it doesn't care which party someone votes for, what religion they believe in, or what skin color they have. Biden is doing well because more people aren't buying Trump's story and want someone who takes the virus more seriously.

 

[fskimospy]

That's good to hear. The latest vote polling is from just two sources, but it does suggest that if there was a bump from the RNC, it was short-lived. Now let's just hope this translates to votes in the right places.

As for the Ipsos/Reuters bit, it seems like Trump's pandering to racist fears of non-white crime is only really reaching a fraction of his base. I suspect even his more ardent supporters just aren't seeing this and are less concerned with store looters than... well, not dying from a virus.

To me the most likely answer is that opinions of Trump are broadly fixed and just like not much that happens lowers his approval it’s also very hard for him to raise it.

 

[K1052]

To me the most likely answer is that opinions of Trump are broadly fixed and just like not much that happens lowers his approval it’s also very hard for him to raise it.

This does seem to be the most probable explanation at this point. He looks stuck.

 

[Commodus]

To me the most likely answer is that opinions of Trump are broadly fixed and just like not much that happens lowers his approval it’s also very hard for him to raise it.

That sounds about right. Reminds me of that CNN interview with a Trump 2016 voter that was linked recently. She said she was hoping Trump would avoid going to Kenosha (to avoid increasing tensions) and would send Ben Carson in his place... well, that's not how Trump works. He always thinks he knows best and will do the stupid thing even if it raises tensions or costs him votes.

 

[Brainonska511]

I saw this story this morning online and I'm left to wonder how many in this thread are just being spoon-fed Russian propaganda (wrt Biden's alleged mental status):

DHS withheld July intelligence bulletin calling out Russian attack on Biden’s mental health

In early July, DHS withheld publication of an intelligence bulletin warning law enforcement of a Russian scheme to promote attacks targeting Joe Biden's mental health.

abcnews.go.com

In early July the Department of Homeland Security withheld publication of an intelligence bulletin warning law enforcement agencies of a Russian scheme to promote “allegations about the poor mental health” of former Vice President Joe Biden, according to internal emails and a draft of the document obtained by ABC News.

The draft bulletin, titled “Russia Likely to Denigrate Health of US Candidates to Influence 2020 Election,” was submitted to the agency’s legislative and public affairs office for review on July 7. The analysis was not meant for public consumption, but it was set to be distributed to federal, state and local law enforcement partners two days later, on July 9, the emails show.

According to the draft bulletin, analysts determined with “high confidence” that “Russian malign influence actors are likely to continue denigrating presidential candidates through allegations of poor mental or physical health to influence the outcome of the 2020 election.”

As an example of Russian efforts to raise doubts about Biden's mental acuity, the draft bulletin points to a March story on a Russian proxy website that "refuted media claims that the candidate’s gaffes are a result of a stutter, instead arguing these verbal miscues are symptoms of dementia.”