I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[K1052]

‘The polls will stay roughly as they are and Democrats will win by approximately the same amount that they won by two years ago’ is hardly delusional, it’s arguably the most probable outcome. You might want to re-examine your own preconceptions if you don’t think a Biden landslide is possible.

There’s a huge cone of uncertainty as to where things end up and so sure, the race could become more competitive or Trump could win, although I would bet large amounts of money that if Trump wins he still loses the popular vote.

2016 was pretty traumatic so it's natural a lot of people see current events through that lens. Though this is an entirely different race at a different moment in American history. Until recently this race has been extremely stable and Biden has led Trump by about the same margin until the last couple months where the gap has grown due to Trump's behavior and current events (which are arguably related). Unless Trump can make the virus, racism, and the economic crisis disappear while becoming more likable in the next few months this dynamic seems unlikely to change a lot

 

[K1052]

This is another case where Barr is helping Trump as he’s mostly echoing the obvious and deliberate lies Barr told in an interview the other day.

In case it actually needs to be said states are not stupid and considered the idea that people might print fake mail-in ballots. That’s why they are encoded with numbers that have to match for them to be counted.

It's going to take a week at least to count all the ballots for the general this year, perhaps longer in states that aren't used to such a high volume of mail ballots. I'm not looking forward to what Trump is inevitably going to put the country through in that time as he panics.

 

[fskimospy]

2016 was pretty traumatic so it's natural a lot of people see current events through that lens. Though this is an entirely different race at a different moment in American history. Until recently this race has been extremely stable and Biden has led Trump by about the same margin until the last couple months where the gap has grown due to Trump's behavior and current events (which are arguably related). Unless Trump can make the virus, racism, and the economic crisis disappear while becoming more likable in the next few months this dynamic seems unlikely to change a lot

Yes, I imagine it is echoes of 2016. If Trump were up on average about 9 points right now people would be saying the election is already over. Trump is a guy who got lucky once and managed to win due to a quirk in our electoral system, foreign election interference, and an exceptionally poorly timed FBI announcement despite getting millions fewer votes than his opponent. The only other election he's been a part of in a sense is 2018 and he lost in a landslide.

He's not magical, and the idea that the guy down almost double digits is the favorite to win is silliness.

 

[Stokely]

In a way though, he IS magical. He has many a quote to his name that would have sunk careers for any other modern politician. He has blatantly obstructed justice and enlisted foreign help to further his own politics and people just shrug. He doesn't bother with dog whistles, he just comes right out with the racist and xenophobic hate and he's rewarded for it by half the country. He has completely mishandled the pandemic, but here's the thing--we are going to get an October announcement about an almost-working, almost-ready vaccine....will that be enough for Trump?

I'll believe he's done when the election is over. His supporters won't go anywhere, while the "mushy middle" non-political people that decide this election waffle right up until election day and make decisions on who knows what (maybe that one last chain email was the decider...). Democratic supports don't galvanize around their horse like the GOP supporters do (I watched a lot of Trump haters in my family turn into Trump worshippers almost overnight); flip side, how many "both sides suck" bitter Bernie bros did I hear from in 2016...quite a few.

Watching Biden's campaign ad didn't fill me with confidence. He doesn't look or sound anything like the Joe Biden from even eight years ago. I don't mind that in a working president--it's who he hires that matter to me, he should be a figurehead--but I just hope he can get elected.

 

[ondma]

In a way though, he IS magical. He has many a quote to his name that would have sunk careers for any other modern politician. He has blatantly obstructed justice and enlisted foreign help to further his own politics and people just shrug. He doesn't bother with dog whistles, he just comes right out with the racist and xenophobic hate and he's rewarded for it by half the country. He has completely mishandled the pandemic, but here's the thing--we are going to get an October announcement about an almost-working, almost-ready vaccine....will that be enough for Trump?

I'll believe he's done when the election is over. His supporters won't go anywhere, while the "mushy middle" non-political people that decide this election waffle right up until election day and make decisions on who knows what (maybe that one last chain email was the decider...). Democratic supports don't galvanize around their horse like the GOP supporters do (I watched a lot of Trump haters in my family turn into Trump worshippers almost overnight); flip side, how many "both sides suck" bitter Bernie bros did I hear from in 2016...quite a few.

Watching Biden's campaign ad didn't fill me with confidence. He doesn't look or sound anything like the Joe Biden from even eight years ago. I don't mind that in a working president--it's who he hires that matter to me, he should be a figurehead--but I just hope he can get elected.

Very well said.

 

[fskimospy]

In a way though, he IS magical. He has many a quote to his name that would have sunk careers for any other modern politician. He has blatantly obstructed justice and enlisted foreign help to further his own politics and people just shrug. He doesn't bother with dog whistles, he just comes right out with the racist and xenophobic hate and he's rewarded for it by half the country. He has completely mishandled the pandemic, but here's the thing--we are going to get an October announcement about an almost-working, almost-ready vaccine....will that be enough for Trump?

I'll believe he's done when the election is over. His supporters won't go anywhere, while the "mushy middle" non-political people that decide this election waffle right up until election day and make decisions on who knows what (maybe that one last chain email was the decider...). Democratic supports don't galvanize around their horse like the GOP supporters do (I watched a lot of Trump haters in my family turn into Trump worshippers almost overnight); flip side, how many "both sides suck" bitter Bernie bros did I hear from in 2016...quite a few.

Watching Biden's campaign ad didn't fill me with confidence. He doesn't look or sound anything like the Joe Biden from even eight years ago. I don't mind that in a working president--it's who he hires that matter to me, he should be a figurehead--but I just hope he can get elected.

I guess we have different views of 'magical', haha. He's the most enduringly unpopular president in the history of modern polling and he lost the only midterm election he was associated with in one of the largest landslides of the last 40 years. Yes, I guess he hasn't been removed from office but since that's literally never happened in the entire history of the country I'm not sure how notable an accomplishment that is.

So yeah, I guess if you consider that 'magical' then sure, but that sure doesn't sound magical to me. The reality is that all of his antics HAVE cost him, that's why he's so widely disliked. That's why he got destroyed in 2018 in an election that was 100% a referendum on him.

If he wins in 2020 it will be due to a breakdown of the rule of law in the US, not because he's a good candidate.

 

[fskimospy]

Very well said.

I did a quick search on your past posts and as far as I can tell when it looked like Warren or Bernie was going to win the nomination you said Democrats were shooting themselves in the foot by nominating someone too liberal. Then when Biden took the lead you changed to saying Democrats were shooting themselves in the foot by nominating a centrist.

I think you might be more committed to the doom and gloom viewpoint than the evidence warrants.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I did a quick search on your past posts and as far as I can tell when it looked like Warren or Bernie was going to win the nomination you said Democrats were shooting themselves in the foot by nominating someone too liberal. Then when Biden took the lead you changed to saying Democrats were shooting themselves in the foot by nominating a centrist.

I think you might be more committed to the doom and gloom viewpoint than the evidence warrants.

Hahaha good work my Man.

 

[K1052]

Someone on Trump's account is doing cleanup after Trump said he wanted to meet Maduro and talked unfavorably about Guaido. It's not every day that a GOP incumbent president presents a golden opportunity for the Dems to outflank him on the right wrt Venezuela/Cuba which has outsized impact in FL.

Please internets lecture me more on the political genius of Donald Trump and that he just didn't totally luck out and run against the most unliked candidate in decades.

 

[ondma]

I did a quick search on your past posts and as far as I can tell when it looked like Warren or Bernie was going to win the nomination you said Democrats were shooting themselves in the foot by nominating someone too liberal. Then when Biden took the lead you changed to saying Democrats were shooting themselves in the foot by nominating a centrist.

I think you might be more committed to the doom and gloom viewpoint than the evidence warrants.

No, they are shooting themselves in the foot by nominating someone who can barely speak in coherent sentences and talk for more than a few minutes without making a serious gaffe. Dont forget Trump and his cronies have 5 months to destroy Biden's credibility and perception of competence. The attack ads are already starting, and I think they will be very effective. BTW, I was initially a strong supporter of Biden, until it became obvious how frail he has become. If debates are held, he will be destroyed by Trump.

And yes, I will own the fact that I am a pessimist. Simply the fact that someone as unfit as Trump was elected and still retains 35 to 40% approval certainly hasnt changed this attitude.

 

[soundforbjt]

No, they are shooting themselves in the foot by nominating someone who can barely speak in coherent sentences and talk for more than a few minutes without making a serious gaffe.

Spoken like someone who has never heard Trump speak or read a transcript of him not reading a prepared speech. Why should Joe's difficulties be any worse. Trump can't even walk down a ramp. If he'd came down on a ramp instead of an escalator when he announced in 2015, the election would've been over before he got to the mic.

 

[ewdotson]

If debates are held, he will be destroyed by Trump.

I still can't wrap my mind around this idea. You want to talk about someone who can barely speak in coherent sentences? Anything Biden's lost in the last decade pales in comparison with what Trump has lost.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

No, they are shooting themselves in the foot by nominating someone who can barely speak in coherent sentences and talk for more than a few minutes without making a serious gaffe. Dont forget Trump and his cronies have 5 months to destroy Biden's credibility and perception of competence. The attack ads are already starting, and I think they will be very effective. BTW, I was initially a strong supporter of Biden, until it became obvious how frail he has become. If debates are held, he will be destroyed by Trump.

And yes, I will own the fact that I am a pessimist. Simply the fact that someone as unfit as Trump was elected and still retains 35 to 40% approval certainly hasnt changed this attitude.

Straight up question, specifically whom should have been nominated in your perfect world. Not a general person one specific real world person.

 

[fskimospy]

I still can't wrap my mind around this idea. You want to talk about someone who can barely speak in coherent sentences? Anything Biden's lost in the last decade pales in comparison with what Trump has lost.

Also, where did people get this idea that the debates matter very much? Clinton obliterated Trump in all three debates and what did it get her?

 

[brycejones]

Honestly I am not sure Biden should debate Trump. Trump just uses them to lie and call names.

 

[soundforbjt]

Honestly I am not sure Biden should debate Trump. Trump just uses them to lie and call names.

I agree, Biden has nothing to gain by "debating" Trump. Trump doesn't know how, nor wants to debate anything.

 

[K1052]

Trump's campaign is demanding more debates and control of the moderator selection.

How about no debates? That sounds good to me.

 

[HomerJS]

Someone on Trump's account is doing cleanup after Trump said he wanted to meet Maduro and talked unfavorably about Guaido. It's not every day that a GOP incumbent president presents a golden opportunity for the Dems to outflank him on the right wrt Venezuela/Cuba which has outsized impact in FL.

Please internets lecture me more on the political genius of Donald Trump and that he just didn't totally luck out and run against the most unliked candidate in decades.

It has nothing to do with any genius by Trump. It's the stupidity and gullibility of his followers.

 

[K1052]

Trump can't even say that he didn't slow down virus testing on purpose but does manage to say that it would be good if they had done so.

I'll take the "but Biden is a gaffe factory" angle seriously when Trump can make it though a single conversation without setting his political fortunes aflame.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Trump's campaign is demanding more debates and control of the moderator selection.

How about no debates? That sounds good to me.

I can't remember if someone mentioned it here or if I saw it on a news site first, but the general consensus is that the candidate who demands more debates is usually seen as being at a disadvantage

 

[fskimospy]

Trump can't even say that he didn't slow down virus testing on purpose but does manage to say that it would be good if they had done so.

I'll take the "but Biden is a gaffe factory" angle seriously when Trump can make it though a single conversation without setting his political fortunes aflame.

Just a few nights ago Trump was rambling incoherently in an attempt to justify why he was unable to drink water with one hand or walk down a very mild ramp without assistance.

This is classic projection. Anyone who thinks physical/mental frailties for Biden are in full blown denial about Trump.

 

[K1052]

Just a few nights ago Trump was rambling incoherently in an attempt to justify why he was unable to drink water with one hand or walk down a very mild ramp without assistance.

This is classic projection. Anyone who thinks physical/mental frailties for Biden are in full blown denial about Trump.

With Trump everything is projection.

 

[ondma]

Straight up question, specifically whom should have been nominated in your perfect world. Not a general person one specific real world person.

I liked Mayor Pete, Amy, Corey Booker among others. Even Kamala Harris and Warren, although more liberal than the others, presented themselves much better than Biden.
But really, you are proving my point. The dems seem to be unable to come up with a viable candidate, really, e.g. Hillary and now Biden. Out of what, maybe 50 or a hundred million registered dems of presidential age, cant they do better than this?

Hell, during the protests, several mayors and governors spoke much more reasonably and coherently than Biden. Even our governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, who has no national experience, presents himself very well in press conferences, much better than Biden.

 

[K1052]

The dems seem to be unable to come up with a viable candidate, really, e.g. Hillary and now Biden.

Biden has an average lead of nine points (or more) on an incumbent president. What exactly is your threshold for viability beyond your personal perception of his speaking performance?

 

[fskimospy]

I liked Mayor Pete, Amy, Corey Booker among others. Even Kamala Harris and Warren, although more liberal than the others, presented themselves much better than Biden.
But really, you are proving my point. The dems seem to be unable to come up with a viable candidate, really, e.g. Hillary and now Biden. Out of what, maybe 50 or a hundred million registered dems of presidential age, cant they do better than this?

Hell, during the protests, several mayors and governors spoke much more reasonably and coherently than Biden. Even our governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, who has no national experience, presents himself very well in press conferences, much better than Biden.

How large would Biden’s lead have to be for you to consider him a viable candidate? RCP average is about 10 now. What about 12? 15?

I ask because Biden’s current lead is larger than any Obama ever had and presumably you agree Obama was a viable candidate.