I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[Mai72]

I just watched a Joe Biden video. I'm sorry to say this but Biden comes off as old, stiff and just out of touch. You can disagree with Trump, but he's able to connect with many Americans. Go look at his statement on the takedown of the monuments: "The D.C. Police are not doing their job as they watch a statue be ripped down & burn," he tweeted. Trump also tagged the city's mayor, Muriel Bowser, a Democrat with whom he has clashed repeatedly in recent weeks. "These people should be immediately arrested. A disgrace to our Country!"

The reality is Trump is able to make a connection with many people over 45. These are the people who vote. A 22 year old young man is unlikey to vote. Let's be honest. It's the older voters who will vote Trump back into office. I don't care what the polls say. This is the same thing that happened during the last election. I like Biden. But, we would had better benefited from a candidate who is much younger. Someone who could challange Trump on his lies. A young Obama or a young Bill Clinton. Someone with a burning desire to change things. I'm not looking forward to the live debates. Biden is going to get destroyed.

 

[fskimospy]

I just watched a Joe Biden video. I'm sorry to say this but Biden comes off as old, stiff and just out of touch. You can disagree with Trump, but he's able to connect with many Americans. Go look at his statement on the takedown of the monuments: "The D.C. Police are not doing their job as they watch a statue be ripped down & burn," he tweeted. Trump also tagged the city's mayor, Muriel Bowser, a Democrat with whom he has clashed repeatedly in recent weeks. "These people should be immediately arrested. A disgrace to our Country!"

The reality is Trump is able to make a connection with many people over 45. These are the people who vote. A 22 year old young man is unlikey to vote. Let's be honest. It's the older voters who will vote Trump back into office. I don't care what the polls say. This is the same thing that happened during the last election. I like Biden. But, we would had better benefited from a candidate who is much younger. Someone who could challange Trump on his lies. A young Obama or a young Bill Clinton. Someone with a burning desire to change things. I'm not looking forward to the live debates. Biden is going to get destroyed.

If you don't care what the polls say then you aren't open to evidence.

The polls say Biden and Trump are about even among voters over 45, which is why Biden is decimating Trump overall.

 

[ch33zw1z]

I just watched a Joe Biden video. I'm sorry to say this but Biden comes off as old, stiff and just out of touch. You can disagree with Trump, but he's able to connect with many Americans. Go look at his statement on the takedown of the monuments: "The D.C. Police are not doing their job as they watch a statue be ripped down & burn," he tweeted. Trump also tagged the city's mayor, Muriel Bowser, a Democrat with whom he has clashed repeatedly in recent weeks. "These people should be immediately arrested. A disgrace to our Country!"

The reality is Trump is able to make a connection with many people over 45. These are the people who vote. A 22 year old young man is unlikey to vote. Let's be honest. It's the older voters who will vote Trump back into office. I don't care what the polls say. This is the same thing that happened during the last election. I like Biden. But, we would had better benefited from a candidate who is much younger. Someone who could challange Trump on his lies. A young Obama or a young Bill Clinton. Someone with a burning desire to change things. I'm not looking forward to the live debates. Biden is going to get destroyed.

Is Trump going to the debates this time?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Top 30 countdown of Joe's biggest fails heh

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Top 30 countdown of Joe's biggest fails heh

Oops don’t fall

 

[Jhhnn]

I just watched a Joe Biden video. I'm sorry to say this but Biden comes off as old, stiff and just out of touch. You can disagree with Trump, but he's able to connect with many Americans. Go look at his statement on the takedown of the monuments: "The D.C. Police are not doing their job as they watch a statue be ripped down & burn," he tweeted. Trump also tagged the city's mayor, Muriel Bowser, a Democrat with whom he has clashed repeatedly in recent weeks. "These people should be immediately arrested. A disgrace to our Country!"

The reality is Trump is able to make a connection with many people over 45. These are the people who vote. A 22 year old young man is unlikey to vote. Let's be honest. It's the older voters who will vote Trump back into office. I don't care what the polls say. This is the same thing that happened during the last election. I like Biden. But, we would had better benefited from a candidate who is much younger. Someone who could challange Trump on his lies. A young Obama or a young Bill Clinton. Someone with a burning desire to change things. I'm not looking forward to the live debates. Biden is going to get destroyed.

I don't think so. Trump was in trouble with seniors before the pandemic & he burned his bridges to them with his response. It's seniors' #1 issue because it really is a matter of life & death. Given the current trajectory, it'll get a lot worse in a lot of places, largely at Trump's urging. The show is just beginning-

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/26/donald-trumps-problems-with-senior-voters-started-long-before-coronavirus/

Trump Is Losing His Hold on the Senior Vote

America’s gerontocratic voters helped put the president in office, but the latest polls show their affections are shifting.

newrepublic.com

Seniors like Biden. He mostly needs to keep on keepin' on as he is to win their votes.

 

[K1052]

Seniors like Biden. He mostly needs to keep on keepin' on as he is to win their votes.

A concept so simple that it is totally evading many smart people.

 

[K1052]

If you don't care what the polls say then you aren't open to evidence.

The polls say Biden and Trump are about even among voters over 45, which is why Biden is decimating Trump overall.

I mean there is only like a 17 point shift to Biden versus 2016 in poll after poll in voters 65+. Until god himself comes down and tattoos the election results on Trump's forehead some people will never believe that he could actually be behind or that he's not a particularly good politician.

 

[fskimospy]

I mean there is only like a 17 point shift to Biden versus 2016 in poll after poll in voters 65+. Until god himself comes down and tattoos the election results on Trump's forehead some people will never believe that he could actually be behind or that he's not a particularly good politician.

Just saw that as of today Trump is in the worst position by an incumbent in the history of modern polling.

Against a non-viable opponent, no less! What are the odds?

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Just saw that as of today Trump is in the worst position by an incumbent in the history of modern polling.

Against a non-viable opponent, no less! What are the odds?

hello......2016 called

 

[fskimospy]

hello......2016 called

Great, so let’s assume exactly what happened in 2016 happens in 2020. Biden’s lead is several points larger than Clinton’s at this point and had she won by one more point overall she would be president.

You guys are going insane because of one bad election outcome. It doesn’t mean polling and evidence no longer matter.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Great, so let’s assume exactly what happened in 2016 happens in 2020. Biden’s lead is several points larger than Clinton’s at this point and had she won by one more point overall she would be president.

You guys are going insane because of one bad election outcome. It doesn’t mean polling and evidence no longer matter.

until polling gets an election mostly right again I’m not trusting it.

 

[fskimospy]

until polling gets an election mostly right again I’m not trusting it.

Polling got 2018 mostly right, literally the most recent nationwide election. It also got 2016 mostly right, more accurate than 2012.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Polling got 2018 mostly right, literally the most recent nationwide election. It also got 2016 mostly right, more accurate than 2012.

Remind me, I’ll admit I’m wrong once the vote tallies are final or all but final.

 

[Jhhnn]

Great, so let’s assume exactly what happened in 2016 happens in 2020. Biden’s lead is several points larger than Clinton’s at this point and had she won by one more point overall she would be president.

You guys are going insane because of one bad election outcome. It doesn’t mean polling and evidence no longer matter.

Every election is unique. Incumbents run on their records. Trump had no record in 2016, and now he does. "What do you have to lose?" turned into "What else do you have to lose, chumps?"

If he expected seniors to jump up like Patrick Henry to say that they regret that they have only one life to give for der Furher then he's sadly mistaken.

 

[woolfe9998]

Trump is already claiming the election will be rigged against him in November, specifically that mail-in voting will use "foreign made" ballots (LOL) and that somehow this means he'll be cheated out of the election.

Trump spreads new lies about foreign-backed voter fraud, stoking fears of a 'rigged election' this November

Reeling after a weekend campaign rally with lower-than-expected turnout, President Donald Trump changed the subject Monday morning with a series of widely debunked lies about alleged voter fraud in US elections, stoking fears of a "rigged election" this November.

www.cnn.com

Just in case anyone thought the chance of him not claiming voter fraud after a loss is above literal zero.

 

[eelw]

None of us are doubting he will have excuses on how he was robbed of the win. But why are the naysayers thinking history will repeat itself in 2016????? As stupid people were in giving him a chance. If anyone still votes for him after these last 3.5 years, all you stupid Americans deserve it then. Sucks it affects the rest of the world so badly.

 

[Wreckem]

The polls are currently very favorable to Biden. From being +10 in Michigan to being +1 in Georgia to being -.7 in Texas. No Presidential challenger has been in this position. Non swing states are now swing states which means more GOP money has to be spent in those states, not just for Trump but for down ballot races. This makes more races in play and more money necessary to fend off democratic challengers. This polling is bad for down ballots candidates just as bad as it is for Trump. All because it’s going to be costlier than originally planned. Even if polling is off they still have to take it as legit because they have to start placing ad buys for the fall. The GOPs cash advantage is going to quickly dissipate. The dems on the other hand are surging in fundraising right now.

No one is saying the Dems should get complacent. For one it’s an election year which means state races are very much critical because of the redistributing battle that begingins in 2021/2022. That said a lot of shenanigans that can happen in four months.

 

[myocardia]

This is not even close to true. There is no remotely plausible scenario where Biden wins the national popular vote by eight points and loses the election. While it’s correct that in the end it comes down to state votes it’s also pretty easy to calculate the probability of victory based on the national popular vote margin. Biden wins by 2? He likely loses the election. Biden wins by 4? He very likely wins. Biden wins by 6? Game over.

I would personally be surprised if the eventual vote margin is as high as 8 points but we should keep in mind that Biden’s lead over Trump has been very steady at around 6 points. Opinions about Trump are pretty much fixed at this point and this election is a referendum on Trump, so this is an uphill climb for Trump at a minimum.

I have to say it’s very odd how people look at a situation where by American presidential election standards Biden is obliterating Trump and come to the conclusion that he will most likely lose. I suspect this is overcompensation for 2016. It’s certainly POSSIBLE that he loses but I would be interested to know the logic process that says ‘the guy down eight points is the likely winner’, because if you didn’t know the names of the candidates there’s no way people would predict that.

It seems as though you believe that the popular vote elects Presidents. It does not, unfortunately for us all. The Donnie lost the last election, in votes cast for him, but had more of the votes that count, the electoral college.

 

[uclaLabrat]

It seems that you believe the national vote and EC vote exist in a vacuum; they do not. The EC vote is highly correlated to national vote, and trump (and other republicans) certainly have a structural advantage in the EC, worth about 2-3 points of the national popular vote (as we saw in 2016). If biden is up by 8, he's looking at an historic drubbing of trump in the EC.

It can change in 4 months to be sure, bjt the outlook sure as fuck isn't good if you're team red.

 

[woolfe9998]

It seems as though you believe that the popular vote elects Presidents. It does not, unfortunately for us all. The Donnie lost the last election, in votes cast for him, but had more of the votes that count, the electoral college.

I don't think you read his post very well. No, he understands how the POTUS is elected.

But hey, if you really just want to look at the battleground state polling, then go have a look.

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Drop down box. Pick whichever state you like.

 

[woolfe9998]

It seems that you believe the national vote and EC vote exist in a vacuum; they do not. The EC vote is highly correlated to national vote, and trump (and other republicans) certainly have a structural advantage in the EC, worth about 2-3 points of the national popular vote (as we saw in 2016). If biden is up by 8, he's looking at an historic drubbing of trump in the EC.

It can change in 4 months to be sure, bjt the outlook sure as fuck isn't good if you're team red.

Hey, someone gets it. Maybe the light bulb will turn on for others too.

 

[woolfe9998]

Good WaPo editorial about how people misunderstand 2016.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/22/2016-what-democrats-get-wrong-about-that-election/

He's basically arguing that Trump is not special. He doesn't have an invisible aura that makes him invulnerable. He says Trump narrowly won because for whatever reason, people didn't like Clinton, and that many people voted for Trump holding their nose.

He brings up some interesting facts. Of all the people polled who said Clinton was "unfit for office," only 5% of those people voted for her. But of all those who said Trump was unfit, 19% voted for him.

He says something else I agree with:

There’s really only one way for Trump to win this election — which is for Democrats to hand him the all-out culture war he desperately wants.

Defunding the police and tearing down statues of Jefferson come to mind as falling under this heading.

 

[Mai72]

One advantage Joe has he isn't hated like Hillary. We got Joe due to his acceptability to others not because he was necessarily the best candidate. All because IMO the record polarization.

That's true. Hillary was disliked, but Joe is going to have to battle the age issue which might be just as big as people disliking Hillary. Have you seen those interviews with Joe? He looks like he's forgotten his lines. In one interview he fell asleep. Joe is going to have a very difficult time debating Trump. IMO, he's going to look incomptent. Also, figure this. If Joe wins POTUS he will be in his 80s during the end of his term. Can Amnericans handle that? He's even older than Trump.

 

[K1052]

Defunding the police and tearing down statues of Jefferson come to mind as falling under this heading.

The problem is that literally nobody who isn't totally in the bag for Trump already believes that Joe Biden wants to defund the police and even some of them don't really appear convinced. Or that he's a socialist. Or a radical leftist bent on the destruction of Jesus or whatever the crazies are saying today.

In a lot of ways the situation is the opposite of Clinton. People were already inclined to disbelieve and dislike her. With Biden that has effectively reversed and the Trump campaign is stuck wondering why the Hillary tricks haven't moved the needle in their direction at all.