I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[eelw]

Only if he personally creates the Covid vaccine, will he pull out the win. He’s lost the swing votes that gave him the win last time. Add in the non voters and hopefully surge of young voters, he’s done for and Moscow Mitch

 

[hal2kilo]

Only if he personally creates the Covid vaccine, will he pull out the win. He’s lost the swing votes that gave him the win last time. Add in the non voters and hopefully surge of young voters, he’s done for and Moscow Mitch

Virtual impossibility that there will be a vaccine by end of this year.

 

[fleshconsumed]

Only if he personally creates the Covid vaccine, will he pull out the win. He’s lost the swing votes that gave him the win last time. Add in the non voters and hopefully surge of young voters, he’s done for and Moscow Mitch

Young voters did not turn out for the democratic primaries which was a huge disappointment for me, I have little faith they'll turn out for the general election in greater numbers than usual.

 

[eelw]

But ignoring low turnout for 2018 and the primaries, this BLM movement should be enough to push the young vote this time.

 

[K1052]

Only if he personally creates the Covid vaccine, will he pull out the win. He’s lost the swing votes that gave him the win last time. Add in the non voters and hopefully surge of young voters, he’s done for and Moscow Mitch

Recent polling indicates his vote share of white evangelicals, seniors, and rural voters against Biden is slipping. He won 2016 on a razors edge so he can't really afford many defections to say nothing of likely large D turnout.

 

[Fenixgoon]

But ignoring low turnout for 2018 and the primaries, this BLM movement should be enough to push the young vote this time.

i sure hope so. young people (well, and many people in general) got to see firsthand what trumpism does in a way that is so raw, unfiltered, and undeniable. and the best way to reverse that course is to vote.

 

[nakedfrog]

We might even see the young vote surge up as much as 5-10% over normal!
If we're lucky...

 

[Fanatical Meat]

We might even see the young vote surge up as much as 5-10% over normal!
If we're lucky...

I’ve heard this for Decades and it never really happens.
I’ve given up.

 

[Jhhnn]

Recent polling indicates his vote share of white evangelicals, seniors, and rural voters against Biden is slipping. He won 2016 on a razors edge so he can't really afford many defections to say nothing of likely large D turnout.

Seniors have an out-sized effect on elections, simply because their turnout is quite large. The pandemic has an out-sized effect on seniors, as well. They know it, of course. That cohort has the same sort of mushy middle as the others. As this unfolds, it will become increasingly clear that Trump tossed 'em to the wolves. The pandemic is still somewhat nebulous & abstract, but it won't be for long. It will get very ugly very quickly in a lot of places. His next rally is scheduled for Arizona where the infection rate is already extremely high & growing. You know, because the pandemic is "ashes & embers", "dying out".

https://newrepublic.com/article/158209/ ... ior-voters

There's also Trump's reaction to the protests. I'm sure he's motivated younger voters in ways that Biden couldn't do on his own. The rest of it all fades to obscurity behind those factors.

 

[Thump553]

Worried about being overconfident is a real thing but when the argument is if Trump's loosing to Biden (who's hit 50% in several polls) by 8, 10, or 12 points the broader point seems clear.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1273738133839007751

I wonder if the Trump campaign is going to send Faux News a cease and desist letter (like they did with CNN) because they certainly don't like that poll either.

 

[eelw]

But the thing is, Faux poll was of eligible registration voters, unlike likely voters of CNN poll. What new excuse do they have now?

 

[K1052]

Seniors have an out-sized effect on elections, simply because their turnout is quite large. The pandemic has an out-sized effect on seniors, as well. They know it, of course. That cohort has the same sort of mushy middle as the others. As this unfolds, it will become increasingly clear that Trump tossed 'em to the wolves. The pandemic is still somewhat nebulous & abstract, but it won't be for long. It will get very ugly very quickly in a lot of places. His next rally is scheduled for Arizona where the infection rate is already extremely high & growing. You know, because the pandemic is "ashes & embers", "dying out".

https://newrepublic.com/article/158209/ ... ior-voters

There's also Trump's reaction to the protests. I'm sure he's motivated younger voters in ways that Biden couldn't do on his own. The rest of it all fades to obscurity behind those factors.

Trump carried 65+ by about 7 points in 2016. He's losing them in the national surveys by 10 points. Recent FL polling indicates he's losing them by 8 or 9 points to Biden there. Then there's the plan to make Biden's age a central part of the campaign by claiming he has dementia...

There is a reasonable case to be made the political skills of the Trump Campaign could be pretty exaggerated.

 

[woolfe9998]

I wonder if the Trump campaign is going to send Faux News a cease and desist letter (like they did with CNN) because they certainly don't like that poll either.

Probably not, but to be consistent, they should. It looks worse coming from Fox News than it does coming from CNN.

As a reminder, Fox News polling has nothing to do with their Faux news division. 538 rates them as one of the best pollsters out there with the least biased and most accurate results.

 

[Jhhnn]

Trump carried 65+ by about 7 points in 2016. He's losing them in the national surveys by 10 points. Recent FL polling indicates he's losing them by 8 or 9 points to Biden there. Then there's the plan to make Biden's age a central part of the campaign by claiming he has dementia...

There is a reasonable case to be made the political skills of the Trump Campaign could be pretty exaggerated.

They work with what they have... The campaign intends to offer masks & hand sanitizer at the Tulsa rally, apparently as objects of scorn...

 

[Wreckem]

I’ve said before and I’ll say again. This is either a once in a generation landslide that leads to Biden, the senate and the house, or it’s Trump 2.0 but both the Senate and house are Democrats.

If polling is accurate and the election were held today, Biden would be over 370 electoral votes and and outside shot at 400+.

All the Biden campaign has to do is run their national ad in all markets over and over again and let rabid Trump shoot him self in the foot.

Between Covid, The Protests, and the Bolton Book, I cannot see Trump winning the independent/moderate vote. Which him losing the white female vote which is also causing his 65+ lead to shrink. Trumps going to struggle to get re-elected. The you have Covid in the fall and Republican governors following lock step with him which is a recipe for the death toll to start spiking before the election. I think at this point they are trying to use a Covid as voter suppression.

 

[Wreckem]

Recent polling indicates his vote share of white evangelicals, seniors, and rural voters against Biden is slipping. He won 2016 on a razors edge so he can't really afford many defections to say nothing of likely large D turnout.

The data has shown he’s losing the white female vote across the board. That’s why he’s declined in all those categories. Men in each of those categories have remained firmly Trump.

 

[Jhhnn]

I’ve said before and I’ll say again. This is either a once in a generation landslide that leads to Biden, the senate and the house, or it’s Trump 2.0 but both the Senate and house are Democrats.

If polling is accurate and the election were held today, Biden would be over 370 electoral votes and and outside shot at 400+.

All the Biden campaign has to do is run their national ad in all markets over and over again and let rabid Trump shoot him self in the foot.

Between Covid, The Protests, and the Bolton Book, I cannot see Trump winning the independent/moderate vote. Which him losing the white female vote which is also causing his 65+ lead to shrink. Trumps going to struggle to get re-elected. The you have Covid in the fall and Republican governors following lock step with him which is a recipe for the death toll to start spiking before the election. I think at this point they are trying to use a Covid as voter suppression.

Covid in the Fall? It'll be going hog wild by then in a lot of places & too late to slow it down much.

 

[eelw]

Lol Bolton says he’s going to vote Biden in November

 

[K1052]

Lol Bolton says he’s going to vote Biden in November

He’s saying that just to aggravate Trump. And it will work.

 

[ondma]

Lol Bolton says he’s going to vote Biden in November

Not in the interview tonight on ABC. He said he will not vote for either Trump or Biden, but will try to find a third candidate to write in. One of the big reasons I still do not feel confident Biden can win. It still remains to be seen how many of those who "disapprove" of Trump in the polls, or say they will vote for Biden (the moderates and undecideds) can actually bring themselves to do so when the time comes. Those who are predicting a landslide for Biden are either looking through rose colored glasses or just plain deluding themselves by their own pre-conceptions. Biden will at best be able to eke out a narrow win.

 

[uclaLabrat]

if the election were held today, it would be a biden landslide. On order of 350-400 EVs. Its possible it tightens up, but odds aren't good. That would require a non-impotent covid response and corresponding economic surge. Outlook not good.

Biden's currently up by 8-9 points. Even granting trump's 2-3 EC structural advantage, he would have to gain roughly 5 points to be competitive. Some serious shit would have to break his way to even have an intelligent conversation but him winning. He's up by less than a point in FUCKING TEXAS. He's not even in double digits IN FUCKING UTAH.

 

[sportage]

Virtual impossibility that there will be a vaccine by end of this year.

True!
Just ask any HIV person about vaccines and timing. Funny.... how so many people believe medical science can just flip a switch and poof, a vaccine for everyone. HIV started in what, 1980 - 1983 and it took until the mid 1990's for an effective treatment to come along, and as for an HIV vaccine? Well... there is none to be found some 40 YEARS LATER.

With the way things are going and the current pandemic, it could actually be far worse come November nation wide than it was at the height of the virus in New York or in Italy.
Should that happen, a massive resurgence of the virus, that would open a whole new can of worms i.e. would a major outbreak close down the nation again? Possibly a shutdown more extreme than the original showdown? And, how would that affect voting? Currently, republicans both national and locally are trying hard to limit to the bone mail-in balloting. So when November comes around and the pandemic has reached the mass-panic stage and republicans have successfully eliminated mail-in voting nation wide, then what?

Well, I have a good idea of then what? Then what would involve Trump postponing the election until further notice. Until either a vaccine is found and given to every American citizen, or.... until Joe Biden catches Covid 19 and dies from it, or.... until the biblical rapture takes place.

Never say that Donald Trump would never get away with postponing the election indefinitely. As long as republicans control most of the government and have pretty much castrated the one branch still controlled by the democrats, and many major states also in republican control, plus add in there that republican controlled US Supreme Court, well.... Donald Trump could definitely get away with postponing the election as long as he likes. Donald Trump could be one of those leaders that remain in office until the day he dies, just like Vladimir Putin and little Kim.

If this virus resurges into the pandemic of all pandemics, it would be very bad for democracy not to mention for free elections. But I doubt postponing elections indefinitely would really matter for most people, most people would be once again unemployed and busy looking for food. Any food.
And Happy Halloween you mother F-ers.

 

[fskimospy]

Not in the interview tonight on ABC. He said he will not vote for either Trump or Biden, but will try to find a third candidate to write in. One of the big reasons I still do not feel confident Biden can win. It still remains to be seen how many of those who "disapprove" of Trump in the polls, or say they will vote for Biden (the moderates and undecideds) can actually bring themselves to do so when the time comes. Those who are predicting a landslide for Biden are either looking through rose colored glasses or just plain deluding themselves by their own pre-conceptions. Biden will at best be able to eke out a narrow win.

‘The polls will stay roughly as they are and Democrats will win by approximately the same amount that they won by two years ago’ is hardly delusional, it’s arguably the most probable outcome. You might want to re-examine your own preconceptions if you don’t think a Biden landslide is possible.

There’s a huge cone of uncertainty as to where things end up and so sure, the race could become more competitive or Trump could win, although I would bet large amounts of money that if Trump wins he still loses the popular vote.

 

[K1052]

Trump, who votes by mail, is having a meltdown on twitter about mail voting this morning. He knows he's losing and is building up an arsenal of excuses. This is yet another area where he is out of step with America in that a significant majority think you should be able to vote by mail and that has only grown since the pandemic took hold. Primary results already foreshadow an enormous increase in mail voting especially out east where it's been less utilized.

Privately Republicans in swing states are worried because their voters are requesting ballots at a lower rate than Democrats. They think Trump's claims are depressing those requests and it could lead to losses in Nov.

 

[fskimospy]

Trump, who votes by mail, is having a meltdown on twitter about mail voting this morning. He knows he's losing and is building up an arsenal of excuses. This is yet another area where he is out of step with America in that a significant majority think you should be able to vote by mail and that has only grown since the pandemic took hold. Primary results already foreshadow an enormous increase in mail voting especially out east where it's been less utilized.

Privately Republicans in swing states are worried because their voters are requesting ballots at a lower rate than Democrats. They think Trump's claims are depressing those requests and it could lead to losses in Nov.

This is another case where Barr is helping Trump as he’s mostly echoing the obvious and deliberate lies Barr told in an interview the other day.

In case it actually needs to be said states are not stupid and considered the idea that people might print fake mail-in ballots. That’s why they are encoded with numbers that have to match for them to be counted.