K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
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‘The polls will stay roughly as they are and Democrats will win by approximately the same amount that they won by two years ago’ is hardly delusional, it’s arguably the most probable outcome. You might want to re-examine your own preconceptions if you don’t think a Biden landslide is possible.
There’s a huge cone of uncertainty as to where things end up and so sure, the race could become more competitive or Trump could win, although I would bet large amounts of money that if Trump wins he still loses the popular vote.
2016 was pretty traumatic so it's natural a lot of people see current events through that lens. Though this is an entirely different race at a different moment in American history. Until recently this race has been extremely stable and Biden has led Trump by about the same margin until the last couple months where the gap has grown due to Trump's behavior and current events (which are arguably related). Unless Trump can make the virus, racism, and the economic crisis disappear while becoming more likable in the next few months this dynamic seems unlikely to change a lot