I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[brycejones]

So sao123 has been on multiple times since posting he was too busy to review the responses to his posts in this thread. I'm starting to think he pulled the rip cord.

 

[IronWing]

Here in UK, as in most countries, most services are vastly more-expensive to provide in rural areas because of the low-population density, hence are cross-subsidised by urban areas. Buses, Post offices and post delivery, police, telephone, electricity, banks, roads, other utilities, all cost more becuase of the longer-distances and lower population-density.
Car travel is not taxed at the level it ought to be, given the environmental costs it imposes on others, because rural people are so reliant on it.

Is it different in the US?

It's the same here. Rural folks express their gratitude by claiming innate moral superiority over the city folks who subsidize the rural lifestyle.

 

[shortylickens]

It's the same here. Rural folks express their gratitude by claiming innate moral superiority over the city folks who subsidize the rural lifestyle.

Its more than just city folk subsidies.
Theres also federal bailouts for farmers on a regular basis. And sometimes other dying jobs not directly farm related.

 

[Meghan54]

Its more than just city folk subsidies.
Theres also federal bailouts for farmers on a regular basis. And sometimes other dying jobs not directly farm related.

No, those farm subsidies/price supports only benefit inner cities.....don't you know that? The rural folk get nuttin, I tells ya!

It's the same shit from rural folk everywhere.

 

[K1052]

Worried about being overconfident is a real thing but when the argument is if Trump's loosing to Biden (who's hit 50% in several polls) by 8, 10, or 12 points the broader point seems clear.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1273738133839007751

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Work... as in some of us still have to go there despite the Covid-19, the riots, the looting, and everything else going on in the world.

Oh Noes!

 

[brycejones]

Oh Noes!

I hope @sao123 gets a chance to review this thread soon. Poor guy must be working his fingers to the bone. Except for being on the forum 20 minutes ago.

 

[woolfe9998]

Yeah, that Fox News poll just brought the polling average up to a wee under +9 for Biden. 538 has it own polling average up as of this morning. It is generally better than RCP:

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

That is one whopping lead. If I had any one wish right now, it's that we could hold the election tomorrow.

This Biden surge really started around 6/5 or so, and it's been getting wider and wider since. Let's hope this can be sustained.

 

[nickqt]

Yeah, that Fox News poll just brought the polling average up to a wee under +9 for Biden. 538 has it own polling average up as of this morning. It is generally better than RCP:

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

That is one whopping lead. If I had any one wish right now, it's that we could hold the election tomorrow.

This Biden surge really started around 6/5 or so, and it's been getting wider and wider since. Let's hope this can be sustained.

It won't be sustained, and it isn't even remotely as high as any of those polls show.

 

[fskimospy]

It won't be sustained, and it isn't even remotely as high as any of those polls show.

You’re saying the polls are all wrong? On what basis?

 

[nickqt]

You’re saying the polls are all wrong? On what basis?

Take a look at any of the battleground state polls back in 2016 and the final results. There are Trump voters who are not being counted, likely almost everywhere.

 

[woolfe9998]

It won't be sustained, and it isn't even remotely as high as any of those polls show.

Then how high is it, actually?

 

[fskimospy]

Take a look at any of the battleground state polls back in 2016 and the final results. There are Trump voters who are not being counted, likely almost everywhere.

The polls were more accurate in 2016 than they were in 2012. More importantly, the polls were highly accurate in 2018 and turnout there was similar to a presidential election year. If there are uncounted Trump voters everywhere, why were the polls right?

I agree it is likely that the race will tighten before the election if for no other reason than we have basically never seen a blowout of this magnitude in my lifetime. Then again, this is about the size of the blowout in 2018 so maybe we really are going to see it.

 

[woolfe9998]

It's always best to talk about boring numbers when discussing polls. Specifically, those battleground state polls, on average, showed Clinton about +3 at the finish line while Trump won those three states by less than 1%. So those three battleground polls were off by 3-4% depending on the state. Battleground state polls are less reliable than popular vote polling because there are fewer of them are they are of lower quality.

The popular vote polling average was only off by +1 blue in 2016. It showed Clinton up by 3 and she won by 2. Right now it shows Biden +9, and swing states polls are showing +5 - +10 right now.

There is no way that Biden would not win this election if held right now. No chance.

 

[uclaLabrat]

538's tipping point analysis is even more informative. Currently biden is within a point in both Texas and Georgia. If those two are in play, this is over as soon as the polls close.

The race would have to tighten by about 6 points to even enter competitive territory. And unfortunately for trump (fortunately for the rest of the world), he just doesn't have that kind of ceiling.

 

[sao123]

I hope @sao123 gets a chance to review this thread soon. Poor guy must be working his fingers to the bone. Except for being on the forum 20 minutes ago.

Oh Piss off....Anandtech forums is my homepage... so every time my kid launches the browser to go to facebook, i go online, whether im at the computer or not.
I've got more than enough work to do than to sit around taking lip from some paper pusher in one of those cushy 37.5 hour per week office jobs where everyone sits around sipping coffee typing on a computer.

 

[brycejones]

Oh Piss off....Anandtech forums is my homepage... so every time my kid launches the browser to go to facebook, i go online, whether im at the computer or not.
I've got more than enough work to do than to sit around taking lip from some paper pusher in one of those cushy 37.5 hour per week office jobs where everyone sits around sipping coffee typing on a computer.

@sao123 Have some fucking integrity and own the mistakes you made in misrepresenting the data you posted. Based on your anger at "office jobs" and inability to interpret data for shit maybe you should spend some time and money and invest in getting yourself educated so maybe you could change your lot in life.

 

[K1052]

538's tipping point analysis is even more informative. Currently biden is within a point in both Texas and Georgia. If those two are in play, this is over as soon as the polls close.

The race would have to tighten by about 6 points to even enter competitive territory. And unfortunately for trump (fortunately for the rest of the world), he just doesn't have that kind of ceiling.

If Trump is going to insist on running the entire general election like a GOP primary dogfight then I think it is entirely possible he fails to close the gap much at all absent some really extraordinary stroke of luck. Comey provided that in 2016 but it's 2020 and we've got at least 3 major generational level crises at work that he's Mr Butterfingers with.

 

[brycejones]

If Trump is going to insist on running the entire general election like a GOP primary dogfight then I think it is entirely possible he fails to close the gap much at all absent some really extraordinary stroke of luck. Comey provided that in 2016 but it's 2020 and we've got at least 3 major generational level crises at work that he's Mr Butterfingers with.

Before he could attack Clinton on her record and use that. His biggest problem is now he has a record as well and its not a good one especially so close to an election. There isn't a lot time to get people to forget how bad his performance has been. His biggest fuck-ups have happened in an election year and he keeps stepping in it as election day gets closer.

 

[ondma]

Yeah, that Fox News poll just brought the polling average up to a wee under +9 for Biden. 538 has it own polling average up as of this morning. It is generally better than RCP:

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

That is one whopping lead. If I had any one wish right now, it's that we could hold the election tomorrow.

This Biden surge really started around 6/5 or so, and it's been getting wider and wider since. Let's hope this can be sustained.

Yea, that is the problem, whether it can be sustained. And of course, it is not the popular vote that wins, but the electoral college. One thing from 2016 though, it shows the polls really are not very reliable in predicting a winner.

 

[ondma]

It's always best to talk about boring numbers when discussing polls. Specifically, those battleground state polls, on average, showed Clinton about +3 at the finish line while Trump won those three states by less than 1%. So those three battleground polls were off by 3-4% depending on the state. Battleground state polls are less reliable than popular vote polling because there are fewer of them are they are of lower quality.

The popular vote polling average was only off by +1 blue in 2016. It showed Clinton up by 3 and she won by 2. Right now it shows Biden +9, and swing states polls are showing +5 - +10 right now.

There is no way that Biden would not win this election if held right now. No chance.

Famous last words. The same thing that was said about Trump in 2016. The telling factor will be whether those who "approve" of Biden will turn out in big numbers and whether they will actually vote for him, despite who they "approve" of. OTOH, you can bet those who approve of Trump will turn out in very large numbers (percentage wise).

IMO, the only way Trump loses (barring an unforeseen total catastrophe) is if Covid comes back with an absolute vengeance and makes it obvious that his push to re-open the economy was a death sentence for hundreds of thousands of Americans. Even this is dependent on whether Biden can hold it together for 5 more months, especially when he is forced to come out of his basement and actually talk coherently rather than just read prepared statements.

 

[woolfe9998]

Yea, that is the problem, whether it can be sustained. And of course, it is not the popular vote that wins, but the electoral college. One thing from 2016 though, it shows the polls really are not very reliable in predicting a winner.

Nah, the polls weren't very off in 2016. It was the media people analyzing the polls and saying Trump had less than a 10% to win who were way off. I was nervous on election day because I had actually been looking at the polls daily, and they showed Clinton had an advantage but not a very big one. Anyone paying attention and objectively looking at the polls ought to have been worried. 538's analytics said it was 70/30 in favor of Clinton. That is not a circumstance under which we should feel comfortable.

Popular vote polling is an indirect measure. A 2.1% popular vote lead was barely not enough to produce an electoral college win. Which gives us a metric: Biden likely needs a little more than a 2.1% advantage in the PV to win in the EC.

But you're correct that whether or not Biden's current, commanding lead will be sustained is a big open question.

 

[fskimospy]

Yea, that is the problem, whether it can be sustained. And of course, it is not the popular vote that wins, but the electoral college. One thing from 2016 though, it shows the polls really are not very reliable in predicting a winner.

I think a lot of people took this away from 2016 and it is badly wrong.

The mistake of 2016 was that poll aggregators assumed polling errors were not correlated when they are. That’s it. Pay attention to the polls, they are the best measure there is at predicting victory.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I dunno, still think we will see a second term President Trump.

 

[woolfe9998]

I dunno, still think we will see a second term President Trump.

Doesn't matter what you believe. Just make sure to show up and vote.