I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[ch33zw1z]

This time Trump is running on his record and failure to manage the pandemic, which is the driving issue for this election. “Not Trump” wasn't enough to beat him last time, it is proving effective this time.

hilary had plenty of plans, just doesnt fit into a hate filled chant for the rubes

 

[ewdotson]

hilary had plenty of plans, just doesnt fit into a hate filled chant for the rubes

Oh the faux impartiality narrative of the media. Who had time to report on Clinton's actual policy proposals when they had to run "exposes" on the Clinton Foundation and the buttery males?

 

[woolfe9998]

No, I am starting from the 2010 midterms, and using the polling of public opinion and the reasons voters provided in handing the legislature back to the GOP, particularly independents. The economy and the ACA were the two primary reasons stated by voters and exploited by the GOP. My facts are fine.

Another fair criticism of Obama is that the wall street architects of the housing bubble were largely rewarded for their actions. Hope and Change became more of the same.

Are you kidding me? You said:

I thought it was curious that Obama made health care his first legislative push considering the war on terror and the economy is what got him into the White House...he simply misread the mood of the electorate.

Yet Obama didn't make healthcare his "first legislative push." His "first legislative push" was on the economy, not healthcare.

Your argument now reads like this: "He should have made the economy his first legislative push, after he made the economy his first legislative push."

You just goal post shifted your argument into incoherence. Likely because you couldn't remember the order of events.

Now, here's some real analysis based on the actual facts. Obama's approvals started to drop at the beginning of May, 2009, when the ACA wasn't even in Congress yet. House work on the ACA, or at least what was visible to the public, didn't start until July, 2009, after Obama's approvals had already dropped off by 10 points from where they were when he got into office. The obvious implication of this is that the economy was still shedding massive jobs every month and voters expected him to fix it faster. Which was an insanely unrealistic expectation and not a promise that Obama had made.

They continued to drop thereafter, partly over the economy, but now also partly because the ACA. In relation to the ACA, it was most likely because 1) the bill was long and complex, and voters expected a simple solution to an incredibly complex problem, 2) voters didn't like the individual mandate, 3) the bill took too long to pass, and 4) among Congressional dems, there was infighting, disagreement, and backroom deals. Problems 3 and 4 were directly related.

Some democrats have criticized Obama for not taking more "leadership" over Congressional dems, caving too early on the very popular public option after Reid told Obama that a handful of Senate dems would never go along with it. Perhaps that is true. Then again, we'll never be privy to all the communications between Obama and Congressional dems.

That healthcare bill was always going to be initially unpopular, no matter when it was introduced. The mandate was necessary but voters didn't like being forced to buy health insurance. The complexity and length were also unavoidable but again, voters didn't like it. So Obama took a political hit in order to get it done. Had he waited until after the midterms, the dems would still have lost some seats simply because it was a midterm and also because the economy was not 100%. This would have made it effectively impossible to get it done.

If anything, Obama should have started the process from day one instead of waiting for summertime. In reality, what should have happened is the dems ending the filibuster on day one and giving us a better bill in far less time.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Are you kidding me? You said:



Yet Obama didn't make healthcare his "first legislative push." His "first legislative push" was on the economy, not healthcare.

Your argument now reads like this: "He should have made the economy his first legislative push, after he made the economy his first legislative push."

You just goal post shifted your argument into incoherence. Likely because you couldn't remember the order of events.

Now, here's some real analysis based on the actual facts. Obama's approvals started to drop at the beginning of May, 2009, when the ACA wasn't even in Congress yet. House work on the ACA, or at least what was visible to the public, didn't start until July, 2009, after Obama's approvals had already dropped off by 10 points from where they were when he got into office. The obvious implication of this is that the economy was still shedding massive jobs every month and voters expected him to fix it faster. Which was an insanely unrealistic expectation and not a promise that Obama had made.

They continued to drop thereafter, partly over the economy, but now also partly because the ACA. In relation to the ACA, it was most likely because 1) the bill was long and complex, and voters expected a simple solution to an incredibly complex problem, 2) voters didn't like the individual mandate, 3) the bill took too long to pass, and 4) among Congressional dems, there was infighting, disagreement, and backroom deals. Problems 3 and 4 were directly related.

Some democrats have criticized Obama for not taking more "leadership" over Congressional dems, caving too early on the very popular public option after Reid told Obama that a handful of Senate dems would never go along with it. Perhaps that is true. Then again, we'll never be privy to all the communications between Obama and Congressional dems.

That healthcare bill was always going to be initially unpopular, no matter when it was introduced. The mandate was necessary but voters didn't like being forced to buy health insurance. The complexity and length were also unavoidable but again, voters didn't like it. So Obama took a political hit in order to get it done. Had he waited until after the midterms, the dems would still have lost some seats simply because it was a midterm and also because the economy was not 100%. This would have made it effectively impossible to get it done.

If anything, Obama should have started the process from day one instead of waiting for summertime. In reality, what should have happened is the dems ending the filibuster on day one and giving us a better bill in far less time.

No, I was incorrect, and you presented facts which I now acknowledge. Thank you for providing a factual based correction to what I asserted. I apologize.

My error in timeline does not change the outcome of the 2010 midterms, nor the reasons voters gave for handing Obama a stunning and crippling defeat to his agenda.

 

[alexruiz]

He looked, and acted, presidential.
He will do it.

 

[woolfe9998]

No, I was incorrect, and you presented facts which I now acknowledge. My error in timeline does not change the outcome of the 2010 midterms, nor the reasons voters gave for handing Obama a stunning and crippling defeat to his agenda.

Yes, because he inherited a shitty economy and voters gave him about 5 minutes to fix it. And because he tried to tackle healthcare, an idea that voters like, but one whose implementation was always fated to be unpopular. I suppose he could have just reneged on his campaign promise and not even tried healthcare reform, and lost only half as many seats in Congress.

Next time the dems get the White House and both houses of Congress, which hopefully will be January of next year, they need to end the filibuster immediately, pass their legislative agenda which is critical to the country, suffer the slings and arrows of the midterms, and hope the legislation will have become popular enough after 4 years to get Biden or a successor dem elected.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Yes, because he inherited a shitty economy and voters gave him about 5 minutes to fix it. And because he tried to tackle healthcare, an idea that voters like, but one whose implementation was always fated to be unpopular. I suppose he could have just reneged on his campaign promise and not even tried healthcare reform, and lost only half as many seats in Congress.

Next time the dems get the White House and both houses of Congress, which hopefully will be January of next year, they need to end the filibuster immediately, pass their legislative agenda which is critical to the country, suffer the slings and arrows of the midterms, and hope the legislation will have become popular enough after 4 years to get Biden or a successor dem elected.

The Democrats are a big tent. They’re remaining united behind Biden to defeat Trump, but you can already see the knives coming out for when they have the majority...the Kennedy/Markey fight spilling into public view being an odd example.

 

[cytg111]

Does Beau have a point here?
Are they winning votes somewhere else on this ban? - As in someone who wouldnt have voted Biden anyway?

 

[Mai72]

Horowitz says Trump will smash the left and win. lol, this guy sounds like a radical.

 

[K1052]

Interesting analysis about where Biden's pretty durable lead is coming from. In short he's scooping up 3rd party voters vs 2016 and performing more like a traditional Dem candidate would be expected to electorally. Trump also appears to be losing some ground probably due to the latter point resulting in the low 40s average we are seeing.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...ics/four-years-later-its-still-all-about-base

 

[Jhhnn]

Horowitz says Trump will smash the left and win. lol, this guy sounds like a radical.

David Horowitz found his grift a long time ago. Highly lucrative, I'm sure.

 

[sportage]

As far as I can tell, Biden and Harris did not get that much of a bump from their DNC. It will be interesting to see if the same holds true for Trump and the RNC. Will people believe all the lies and delusion from the RNC? Will people be able to see through all the nonsense? I would be happy if things remain the same coming out of the two conventions as going into the two conventions. But if Donald Trump sees a big boost, game over. People don't care about the facts or the truth, people just prefer mean and ugly. Just check out this comparison of evil eyes. See the similarities?

 

[Wreckem]

As far as I can tell, Biden and Harris did not get that much of a bump from their DNC. It will be interesting to see if the same holds true for Trump and the RNC. Will people believe all the lies and delusion from the RNC? Will people be able to see through all the nonsense? I would be happy if things remain the same coming out of the two conventions as going into the two conventions. But if Donald Trump sees a big boost, game over. People don't care about the facts or the truth, people just prefer mean and ugly. Just check out this comparison of evil eyes. See the similarities?

The RNCs night 1 ratings were substantially below the DNCs. Night two did better but still 600k lower. Night three cratered.

 

[MrSquished]

Joe is absolutely missing a big moment here. He should be in Wisconsin meeting with folks and making a speech condemning the violence, and praising the peaceful folks, etc...

 

[ch33zw1z]

Joe is absolutely missing a big moment here. He should be in Wisconsin meeting with folks and making a speech condemning the violence, and praising the peaceful folks, etc...

Yea, or murdered by some radicalized rwnj while he's there

 

[K1052]

Joe is absolutely missing a big moment here. He should be in Wisconsin meeting with folks and making a speech condemning the violence, and praising the peaceful folks, etc...

I think he will go but he’s waiting for Trump to overplay his hand first which it looks like he’s doing if the tweets from this NH rally are accurate.

 

[MrSquished]

Yea, or murdered by some radicalized rwnj while he's there

The constant media hype on the violent protesters and repeated unchecked lies of Biden defunding the police are going to start to resonate with white swing suburban voters in these states. Biden just cant' release statements and expect they will reach the masses. He needs to make a bigger moment than that. Now.

 

[ch33zw1z]

The constant media hype on the violent protesters and repeated unchecked lies of Biden defunding the police are going to start to resonate with white swing suburban voters in these states. Biden just cant' release statements and expect they will reach the masses. He needs to make a bigger moment than that. Now.

Oh, I agree, just stating that rwnj commit the vast majority of domestic terrorism in our country, Biden is probably preparing for such things.

 

[K1052]

Everybody take a breath. Republicans thought the Floyd protests worked to their advantage. Then Portland. Now this.

Biden has done interviews, where he specifically rules out defunding the police and condemns violence, and will be hitting the trail soon as well. Rushing out to fight Trump over this immediately is maybe not the best move. Anyway Biden's real weapon against Trump is his empathy and general refusal to fight on his level, a mistake Clinton made.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1299369077971062788

 

[MrSquished]

Everybody take a breath. Republicans thought the Floyd protests worked to their advantage. Then Portland. Now this.

Biden has done interviews, where he specifically rules out defunding the police and condemns violence, and will be hitting the trail soon as well. Rushing out to fight Trump over this immediately is maybe not the best move. Anyway Biden's real weapon against Trump is his empathy and general refusal to fight on his level, a mistake Clinton made.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1299369077971062788

It's not about rushing to meet Trump or getting on his level, it's about doing his own thing on a higher level. it's about a moment where yet more police brutality sparked more protests that resulted in vigilante murder. It's a big moment. Trump or no Trump I think he should make an impression. America needs a leader right now, Biden should show he is the one.

 

[K1052]

It's not about rushing to meet Trump or getting on his level, it's about doing his own thing on a higher level. it's about a moment where yet more police brutality sparked more protests that resulted in vigilante murder. It's a big moment. Trump or no Trump I think he should make an impression. America needs a leader right now, Biden should show he is the one.

I think he did at the convention and in his interviews and will again. He beat all his primary competitors (despite so many doubts including my own) and is holding Trump to a 8-9 point lead. I'm willing to trust the process here a bit.

 

[Jhhnn]

I think he did at the convention and in his interviews and will again. He beat all his primary competitors (despite so many doubts including my own) and is holding Trump to a 8-9 point lead. I'm willing to trust the process here a bit.

Expect a lot of back biting regardless of what Biden does.

 

[sportage]

I agree that Joe should be out there, somewhere, giving his 2 cents worth or at least holding competing events like Trump always does. I don't know.... I just hope Joe is not getting too politically correct here. Making it appear that too many others are controlling what Joe does, says, and thinks. Could it be that once Joe is elected, the ME TOO movement or the black lives matters movement or one of the other movements will want Joe sent away and locked up so that Kamala Harris can take over president? I don't know if the "movements" really care so much about Joe, but they no doubt would LOVE to see Kamala in there.

 

[K1052]

Trump threatening to use the Insurrection Act seems like a couple notches above “overplaying his hand”. Almost like tear gassing a peaceful crowd to do a photo op.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

How 'bout dem poll numbers?