Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[Fjodor2001]

A whole lot of employees.

Then I’m surprised we’re not seeing solid release date leaks.

No it's not.
Q2'27 means Computex launch.
Q1'27 usually means CES launch. There are events or indicative market cycle (like the b2s or holiday season) to track launches.

And 2026H2 means what specific date?

Yes I know Intel sucks. You don't have to say that for me.

So in practice you agree AMD does not know the effective release date of NVL-S anyway.

They do what AMD tells them to do.

Depends on what the contracts say. But I’d be very surprised that if the OEMs have been promised e.g. a certain number of Zen6 X3D CPUs at certain date, and AMD have them available, but decide not to deliver to the OEM, so the OEM has to sit on inventory of all the other parts that the PC consists of, waiting for 3-6 months or whatever until being allowed to sell the PCs.

 

[Joe NYC]

OEMs might release different PC model variants with different CPUs at different dates. E.g. if Zen6 X3D is ready 3-6 months before NVL-S bLLC (or vice versa), the OEMs will not hold back and release both PC model variants at the same time.

So just because AMD know when the OEM intends to release models with its CPUs does not mean they know when that OEM intends to release models with a specific competitor CPU.

The point is that AMD and Intel sell against each other, and the way for OEMs to get each side to lower their asking price is to share or hint at what the other CPU supplier has to offer.

That's just one way the information spreads.

Then, there 2 hubs, Silicon Valey and Austin Texas, where both of the companies operate and people talk to each other.

 

[CakeMonster]

They'll probably time the V$ parts to intercept NVL-S.

I have not followed the Intel rumors or their tech at all since I'm mostly concerned with desktop anyway, when do we assume that will release?

 

[Joe NYC]

Then I’m surprised we’re not seeing solid release date leaks.

What we do know is that they are 6+ months in the future, which means no specific date has been set. Just approximate.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Then I’m surprised we’re not seeing solid release date leaks.

the ghost of lisasu will turn your family into blood eagle if you talk.

And 2026H2 means what specific date?

Depends on the segment.
But usually near holidays so think late september to mid november launch windows.

So in practice you agree AMD does not know the effective release date of NVL-S anyway.

Of course they do.

But I’d be very surprised that if the OEMs have been promised e.g. a certain number of Zen6 X3D CPUs at certain date, and AMD have them available, but decide not to deliver to the OEM, so the OEM has to sit on inventory of all the other parts that the PC consists of, waiting for 3-6 months or whatever until being allowed to sell the PCs.

not how any of that works buddy

I have not followed the Intel rumors or their tech at all since I'm mostly concerned with desktop anyway, when do we assume that will release?

somewhere 2027.

 

[Fjodor2001]

The point is that AMD and Intel sell against each other, and the way for OEMs to get each side to lower their asking price is to share or hint at what the other CPU supplier has to offer.

That's just one way the information spreads.

Then, there 2 hubs, Silicon Valey and Austin Texas, where both of the companies operate and people talk to each other.

They might speculate, and perhaps guesstimate within a window of a quarter or half-year. But I don’t see them knowing exact release dates of specific competitor SKUs. I don’t even think AMD or Intel know or have decided the release dates of their own Zen6/NVL-S SKUs yet.

Also, these things are usually very secret and if an OEM would leak such information (directly or indirectly) across suppliers it can lead to very serious consequences. Same for sharing info between AMD and Intel employees (or their partners) directly like you were hinting at.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Depends on the segment.
But usually near holidays so think late september to mid november launch windows.

That’s around a one quarter window. Not a specific date.

Of course they do.

So you mean AMD already knows of all their competitor’s currently unknown delays. A crystal ball.

not how any of that works buddy

Then how do you think it works in a situation like I described.

 

[adroc_thurston]

That’s around a one quarter window. Not a specific date.

How is this relevant.
Holidays launch means holidays launch.

So you mean AMD already knows of all their competitor’s currently unknown delays.

AMD ships their stuff assuming ideal competition time to market.

Then how do you think it works in a situation like I described.

The situation you imagined does not exist.

 

[Joe NYC]

They might speculate, and perhaps guesstimate within a window of a quarter or half-year. But I don’t see them knowing exact release dates of specific competitor SKUs. I don’t even think AMD or Intel know or have decided the release dates of their own SKUs yet.

That's true (and I already posted that in another reply). You don't need to know the exact day if you know the approximate Quarter when it launches.

Also, these things are usually very secret and if an OEM would leak such information (directly or indirectly) across suppliers it can lead to very serious consequences. Same for sharing info between AMD and Intel employees (or their partners) directly like you were hinting at.

There is a range of controlled leaks that are meant to leak, to places like MLID, and there are private conversations that are meant to stay private. There are a lot of opportunities.

Of all sorts of info, on IP, specs etc., timing of release seems like the least consequential thing to leak.

 

[Schmide]

That's true (and I already posted that in another reply). You don't need to know the exact day if you know the approximate Quarter when it launches.



There is a range of controlled leaks that are meant to leak, to places like MLID, and there are private conversations that are meant to stay private. There are a lot of opportunities.

Of all sorts of info, on IP, specs etc., timing of release seems like the least consequential thing to leak.

Wait now you trust these influencers? Remember trust no one!!!

"I was fooled. I trusted people who turned out to be dumb, liars and manipulators"

Then, the next morning, you will wake up a better person, having grown, having learned from your mistakes. Ability to admit to being wrong / misled after new data is presented is really a superpower.

 

[Joe NYC]

Wait now you trust these influencers? Remember trust no one!!!

Leaks / Speculation are a good input. But one has to be able to separate wheat from chaff. I think I have some ability to extract the wheat, while your expertise is in extracting the worthless parts.

And one can assess their credibility in different areas:
MLID: good on leaks, bad on his tariff retardation / musings
Gamers Nexus: good on benchmarking, hit and miss on their "political" analysis

 

[Schmide]

Leaks / Speculation are a good input. But one has to be able to separate wheat from chaff. I think I have some ability to extract the wheat, while your expertise is in extracting the worthless parts.

And one can assess their credibility in different areas:
MLID: good on leaks, bad on his tariff retardation / musings
Gamers Nexus: good on benchmarking, hit and miss on their "political" analysis

What happens when they make a bunch of claims then ignore evidence to the contrary and act like it didn't happen? Do you just let it go?

 

[Joe NYC]

What happens when they make a bunch of claims then ignore evidence to the contrary and act like it didn't happen? Do you just let it go?

You gave me "homework". I did not get to it yet, to be able to do any sort of analysis of the video.

 

[MadRat]

Until AMD can break into Dell laptop lines they will not break into mass laptop orders. Some places buy HP, but larger organizations want a stable product line with part supplies for a decade. AMD needs to break this glass ceiling.

 

[MS_AT]

Until AMD can break into Dell laptop lines they will not break into mass laptop orders.

They did last year.

a stable product

I would not call Dell that. But maybe their consumer lines are stable. I have no hands-on experience with those.

 

[StefanR5R]

a stable product <> a stable product line (with part supplies for a decade)

 

[adroc_thurston]

Until AMD can break into Dell laptop lines

they did that last year.

 

[OneEng2]

Until AMD can break into Dell laptop lines they will not break into mass laptop orders. Some places buy HP, but larger organizations want a stable product line with part supplies for a decade. AMD needs to break this glass ceiling.

Seems like AMD is likely to fill up the high margin markets to saturation prior to selling a single chip to Dell and a sliver of a profit margin.

 

[MadRat]

I checked out their token AMD offering. It was not competitively priced, as the Alienware product with better options was cheaper. They cannot be seriously trying to sell AMD offerings with this effort.

Their Linux offerings were even more comical.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I checked out their token AMD offering. It was not competitively priced, as the Alienware product with better options was cheaper. They cannot be seriously trying to sell AMD offerings with this effort.

Their Linux offerings were even more comical.

Uhhhh idk what you're taking about but Dell offers the (nearly) full commercial lineup with AMD.

 

[marees]

4p & 4c confirmed for medusa point 1

(probably 2lp also ??)

https://twitter.com/x/status/2010576576405295573

 

[fastandfurious6]

possible we see the Medusa hybrid in summer 2026?

 

[adroc_thurston]

possible we see the Medusa hybrid in summer 2026?

no.

 

[Fjodor2001]

How is this relevant.
Holidays launch means holidays launch.

Because there is no holiday launch in H2 and the guesstimate is only within approx 1 quarter like you said yourself. Likely even more since H2 sometimes means end of H2. So AMD has no more specific clue about when in H2 the Intel SKUs will be released than the rest of us who are guesstimating.

AMD ships their stuff assuming ideal competition time to market.

Duh. You said AMD were timing their Zen6 X3D SKU release to counter Intel NVL-S bLLC release. And then concluded the Intel release can be delayed for unknown how long. So how is AMD supposed to time that? Produce lots of Zen6 X3D SKUs and put them in storage and not deliver to OEMs on the date they have promised them, but wait for X months until Intel releases their (assumed delayed) NVL-S bLLC SKUs? Lol.

The situation you imagined does not exist

Wut? So now you’re saying Intel SKU releases cannot be delayed after all? Make up your mind.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Because there is no holiday launch in H2

que?