Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[MoistOintment]

Why would that be bad? AMD is like 90% of DIY. Why is most buyers already being on the platform and buying CPUs to upgrade something less than ideal?

Because it'd always be preferable to capture new customers to expand marketshare.

Capturing an LGA1700 upgrade or brand new first time build is long term better than selling someone on Zen4 a Zen6 drop in upgrade. It also helps your board partners too. If the majority of your customers are existing AM5 users, then AM5 market share growth is slowing

AMD in DIY may be very strong, but it's not at 90%

 

[adroc_thurston]

Because it'd always be preferable to capture new customers to expand marketshare.

it's DIY, DDR5's been here for 4-ish years.

Capturing an LGA1700 upgrade

He haez DDR5.

brand new first time build

Those are doomed.

AMD in DIY may be very strong, but it's not at 90%

They are at 90% currently.

If the majority of your customers are existing AM5 users, then AM5 market share growth is slowing

who cares as long as they get to pump CPU ASPs up.
marketshare that, mindshare that; dawg, money is what matters.

and the cost of a new motherboard.

those aren't that expensive.

 

[poke01]

those aren't that expensive

You know much I pay to move to Zen6 other than the CPU, $0

I’m not talking about expense but savings to be made.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I’m not talking about expense but savings to be made.

the boons of platform longevity indeed.
1954 is also like that, sans the worthwhile CPU part before Hammer Lake.

 

[MoistOintment]

it's DIY, DDR5's been here for 4-ish years.

He haez DDR5.

Those are doomed.

They are at 90% currently.

who cares as long as they get to pump CPU ASPs up.
marketshare that, mindshare that; dawg, money is what matters.

those aren't that expensive.

The whole reason for platform longevity is to capture as many customers as possible into the platform so you can keep them. Whether or not NVL is better or worse is inconsequential for a Zen 4 owner - they're already on AM5 and their upgrade path has already been chosen for them.

So yes, capturing AM5 marketshare absolutely matters. I'm on AM4 / DDR4 looking to upgrade next gen. 4-5 years is a pretty typical upgrade cycle in DIY. Plenty of people are not on AM5. It's definitely important for AMD to capture all those potential customers with Zen 6 because if they end up going with LGA-1954, that customer's next upgrade is also likely a loss as well.

 

[adroc_thurston]

The whole reason for platform longevity is to capture as many customers as possible into the platform so you can keep them.

no, it's to continue selling ever fattest ASP DIY CPUs every year.

they're already on AM5 and their upgrade path has already been chosen for them.

uh, no.
If AMD sucked, and Intel didn't, they'd swap to Intel no strings attached.
Platform longevity meme only works if you deliver perf CAGR.

It's definitely important for AMD to capture all those potential customers with Zen 6 because if they end up going with LGA-1954

no, lol. ASPs first.

 

[Fjodor2001]

those are full-year unit guides.
PCs are down very modestly.

We have hardly begun feeling the DRAM/etc shortage pain. Started just a few moths ago and will accelerate and last for ~2+ years according to what has been communicated.

Sales held up in 2025Q4 by Win 10 EOL / forced upgrades and panic buys due to RAM prices exploding and fear of it becoming ever more expensive.

Uh, no, AMD (AM5) rules teh DIY with an iron fist.

DYI does not mean drop-in upgrades only. That’s only a fraction of DYI.

A lot of users will postpone their upgrades (whether DYI or not) until shortages have resolved and prices have come down.

 

[adroc_thurston]

We have hardly begun feeling the DRAM/etc shortage pain

Yeah you did, spot prices went parabolic a quarter ago.
Inventories started draining around August last year.

DYI does not mean drop-in upgrades only. That’s only a fraction of DYI.

AM5 **is** DIY.
And 1700 was a DDR5 platform anyway.

A lot of users will postpone their upgrades (whether DYI or not) until shortages have resolved and prices have come down.

DIYers already have DDR5 memory on hand.

 

[mmaenpaa]

We have hardly begun feeling the DRAM/etc shortage pain. Started just a few moths ago and will accelerate and last for ~2+ years according to what has been communicated.

Sales held up in 2025Q4 by Win 10 EOL / forced upgrades and panic buys due to RAM prices exploding and fear of it becoming ever more expensive.


DYI does not mean drop-in upgrades only. That’s only a fraction of DYI.

A lot of users will postpone their upgrades (whether DYI or not) until shortages have resolved and prices have come down.

Prices go up and they go down. New users (with no or little history pricing knowledge) will buy what they want / can afford. High prices becomes the new normal after a while.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Yeah you did, spot prices went parabolic a quarter ago.
Inventories started draining around August last year.

AM5 **is** DIY.
And 1700 was a DDR5 platform anyway.

DIYers already have DDR5 memory on hand.

Motherboard sales down 50% in Nov/Dec 2025 compared to 2024:

Memory apocalypse kneecaps motherboard sales by as much as 50%, and CPU sales might be next

Mo-bo, mo' problems.

www.pcgamer.com

”The dominoes are falling: motherboard sales down 50% as PC enthusiasts are put off by stinking memory prices”

 

[adroc_thurston]

Motherboard sales down 50% in Nov/Dec 2025 compared to 2024:

It would be really hard for them to go up relative to 9800X3D launch cycle.

 

[Joe NYC]

Far too low number I think. The full pain is yet to be seen in actual sales numbers.

Also, drop-in upgrades to Zen6 will be low in the context of share of total number of CPUs sold. Most do not think it’s worth upgrading CPU only, if they have one that is only one or two generations old.

Zen 6 looks like a sweet upgrade for Zen 4 owners, like myself. From 7800x3d to 12 core Zen 6 V-Cache could be +50% performance increase, which is not bad for CPU only upgrade.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Prices go up and they go down. New users (with no or little history pricing knowledge) will buy what they want / can afford. High prices becomes the new normal after a while.

They have no chance. They are competing with the AI frenzy companies who will outbid them for the limited HW resources available no matter what.

Did you watch the CES keynotes? Nobody cares about the PC enthusiasts. It’s all about max money/profit and corporate AI, AI, Aaayyeee.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Nobody cares about the PC enthusiasts

No one ever did.
AMD serves you server scraps.

 

[Fjodor2001]

No one ever did.
AMD serves you server scraps.

Point is it’s much worse now for the PC enthusiasts than before, and will keep getting worse due to the RAM/etc shortages and price increases.

Will be interesting how much the Zen6 DT sales will drop compared to what was originally planned approx 2 years ago or whatever when those sales targets were set.

 

[gdansk]

But at least we could buy cheap DRAM to go with our scraps.

 

[Joe NYC]

AMD in DIY may be very strong, but it's not at 90%

It just happens that AMD is now at 90% on Amazon in all these countries, including Japan (!!!)

https://twitter.com/x/status/2012123108807942255

 

[adroc_thurston]

Point is it’s much worse now for the PC enthusiasts than before, and will keep getting worse.

It'll be normal.
There's enough DDR5 on hands to keep upgrade tracks going.

Will be interesting how much the Zen6 DT sales will drop compared to what was originally planned approx 2 years ago or whatever when those sales targets were set.

sales targets aren't set 2 years in advance.
Die configs aren't even set 2 years in advance.

But at least we could buy cheap DRAM to go with our scraps.

boom bust cycles are dime a dozen.
In any case, you probably have DDR5 on hand. use that.

 

[Joe NYC]

Prices go up and they go down. New users (with no or little history pricing knowledge) will buy what they want / can afford. High prices becomes the new normal after a while.

Exactly. New buyers, or buyers upgrading 5+ years old systems don't go into the purchase with fixed expectations, based on what happened a year ago, when they were not even paying attention.

Everything else goes up in price more than computers. For example, restaurants in my area are +100% in price since Covid. You can easily blow $600 on a dinner for 4, which is a price for 64 GB memory kit...

 

[adroc_thurston]

New buyers

PC TAM ain't growing brotha.

or buyers upgrading 5+ years old systems

Those are toast but whatever.

 

[Fjodor2001]

It would be really hard for them to go up relative to 9800X3D launch cycle.

You mean Zen 5%

 

[adroc_thurston]

You mean Zen 5%

I mean zen20% or w/ever 9800X3D was in vidya.
Bulldozer perf margins on ARL-S too. very nifty.

 

[Fjodor2001]

For example, restaurants in my area are +100% in price since Covid. You can easily blow $600 on a dinner for 4

Prices have gone up yes, but overall inflation has not been anywhere near 100% since then Covid. Restaurants prices have gone up more than average.

And for DRAM it’s 400% in just a few months.

Salaries have not kept up. People are prioritizing food etc over upgrading PC with diminishing perf gains.

 

[poke01]

Lmao so much talk for what will be easy win for AMD in DIY.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Lmao so much talk for what will be easy win for AMD in DIY.

we're in for another cycle of "here's how NVL can still win".