Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[Fjodor2001]

I mean zen20% or w/ever 9800X3D was in vidya.

Compared to wut? 7800X3D I think not.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Compared to wut? 7800X3D I think not.

Against 7800X3D it was 7-25% faster depending on how CPU/GPU-bound the game in question was.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Against 7800X3D it was 7-25% faster depending on how CPU/GPU-bound the game in question was.

So not 20% on average after all.

 

[Timorous]

Most do not think it’s worth upgrading CPU only, if they have one that is only one or two generations old.

Plenty of people got into AM5 with a 7600 or even a 7500F part. Zen 6 will offer a significant upgrade and if those people can now budget more of their upgrade towards 1 component instead of ram + mobo + CPU they will often go up many tiers.

When I built my AM4 rig it was just a 2200G on a B350 motherboard. I had to budget for all the parts. A few years later I upgraded to the 5800X3D because with a drop in upgrade it was still far cheaper than switching platform so why not go for the best for my use case (which has evolved to be a host PC while I stream games to my steam deck).

Edit to add. For existing AM5 owners who did go with a more budget CPU and potentially more budget DDR5 the fact the v-cache CPUs are less memory sensitive might actually mean there is even more demand for the 12c v-cache part as they will be pairing it with slower or higher latency ram and want to mitigate that downside without buying more. Even at $500 if the perf is there it may be a much cheaper option than any alternative to get a large performance boost.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Plenty of people got into AM5 with a 7600 or even a 7500F part. Zen 6 will offer a significant upgrade and if those people can now budget more of their upgrade towards 1 component instead of ram + mobo + CPU they will often go up many tiers.

When I built my AM4 rig it was just a 2200G on a B350 motherboard. I had to budget for all the parts. A few years later I upgraded to the 5800X3D because with a drop in upgrade it was still far cheaper than switching platform so why not go for the best for my use case (which has evolved to be a host PC while I stream games to my steam deck).

We can argue back and forth whether it’s worth upgrading only CPU if you have one that is one or two generations old. Some think so, others don’t.

Point is that it’s still only a subset of all upgrades being done on the market. And for all other upgrades a lot of them will be held back due to people postponing their PC upgrades because of the huge price increases on RAM, SSD, etc.

So we’re likely going to see big effects on this for e.g. CPU and motherboard sales going forward.

 

[Thibsie]

Still upgrading to
Zen6, I dunno, zen7 should be a different socket so…

 

[Tangopiper]

Still upgrading to
Zen6, I dunno, zen7 should be a different socket so…

Zen 7 is probably AM5 as well.

 

[adroc_thurston]

zen7 should be a different socket so…

It's AM5.

 

[adroc_thurston]

We can argue back and forth whether it’s worth upgrading only CPU if you have one that is one or two generations old. Some think so, others don’t.

"Generation" is not a real world.
Perf delivered is all that matters.

 

[Thibsie]

It's AM5.

Oh in that case, I’ll consider it…

 

[luro]

We can argue back and forth whether it’s worth upgrading only CPU if you have one that is one or two generations old. Some think so, others don’t.

Point is that it’s still only a subset of all upgrades being done on the market. And for all other upgrades a lot of them will be held back due to people postponing their PC upgrades because of the huge price increases on RAM, SSD, etc.

So we’re likely going to see big effects on this for e.g. CPU and motherboard sales going forward.

If this is going to have any impact on AMD imagine Intel? They are cooked

 

[Timorous]

We can argue back and forth whether it’s worth upgrading only CPU if you have one that is one or two generations old. Some think so, others don’t.

It is use case, performance delta and price specific so there is nothing much to argue about.

Zen 2 to zen 3 or zen 3X3D was quite a popular in socket upgrade and that was just 1 gen.

 

[Joe NYC]

If this is going to have any impact on AMD imagine Intel? They are cooked

Exactly. If AMD is going to getting certain percentage of sales from CPU only upgrades, and Intel is getting zero sales from CPU only upgrades, then Intel will be in far worse situation than AMD.

 

[DavidC1]

Exactly. If AMD is going to getting certain percentage of sales from CPU only upgrades, and Intel is getting zero sales from CPU only upgrades, then Intel will be in far worse situation than AMD.

The whole socket upgradeability thing is mostly moot unless you support 5+ generations like AMD does. Intel doing 3 doesn't work, because it's still too short. AMD supports it long enough that you can take advantage of an upheaval in changes like Bulldozer to Zen transition. Intel is barely enough to get a Tick change, which is not worth upgrading except for the poor people(I mean those that spend all their income on frivolous items over investing).

 

[Joe NYC]

The whole socket upgradeability thing is mostly moot unless you support 5+ generations like AMD does. Intel doing 3 doesn't work, because it's still too short. AMD supports it long enough that you can take advantage of an upheaval in changes like Bulldozer to Zen transition. Intel is barely enough to get a Tick change, which is not worth upgrading except for the poor people(I mean those that spend all their income on frivolous items over investing).

Yeah, there have to be several generations or disproportional increase in performance.

Alder Lake to Raptor Lake, for example, was IMO too little to upgrade the CPU.

 

[lopri]

Motherboard sales down 50% in Nov/Dec 2025 compared to 2024:

Memory apocalypse kneecaps motherboard sales by as much as 50%, and CPU sales might be next

Mo-bo, mo' problems.

www.pcgamer.com

”The dominoes are falling: motherboard sales down 50% as PC enthusiasts are put off by stinking memory prices”

Thank god. I hope Karma hit them hard. I think it was motherboard vendors who started the years-long swindling during the COVID. Either them or it was crypto-driven GPU shortage. At least the GPU inflation had a perceived reason. There was/is no justification for jacking up the mobo prices. (yeah I know the bogus reasons they came up with but no, I do not buy them at all)

 

[Fjodor2001]

It is use case, performance delta and price specific so there is nothing much to argue about.

Zen 2 to zen 3 or zen 3X3D was quite a popular in socket upgrade and that was just 1 gen.

Yeah, e.g. if someone needs more cores and has an ”old” 8C Zen, then upgrading CPU only to 24C Zen6 could make sense.

But then we have the whole laptop segment where CPU only upgrade is not even possible.

So I wonder how many percent of upgrades are CPU only? I’d think it’s a quite small percentage of the whole upgrade market. Among the enthusiasts on this forum it may be different, but that’s not really representative of the whole market.

 

[Win2012R2]

So I wonder how many percent of upgrades are CPU only?

It will be higher due to memory crazy memory prices: Zen6/7 should drive a fair few upgrades.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Yeah, e.g. if someone needs more cores and has an ”old” 8C Zen, then upgrading CPU only to 24C Zen6 could make sense.

peopel don't buy more cores, they buy the gaming perf.

 

[jpiniero]

peopel don't buy more cores, they buy the gaming perf.

But Cinebench!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DavidC1]

Thank god. I hope Karma hit them hard. I think it was motherboard vendors who started the years-long swindling during the COVID. Either them or it was crypto-driven GPU shortage. At least the GPU inflation had a perceived reason. There was/is no justification for jacking up the mobo prices. (yeah I know the bogus reasons they came up with but no, I do not buy them at all)

Here's the problem with that thinking.

If it really is a 50% decline in sales and that trend continues, it will result in either bankruptcy or exiting the market like Micron, thus you'll not have motherboards to buy, or wait for them to be replaced. Is that ideal for you?

If that eastern religious belief really existed, many people wouldn't get away with doing bad things.

 

[Doug S]

The whole socket upgradeability thing is mostly moot unless you support 5+ generations like AMD does. Intel doing 3 doesn't work, because it's still too short. AMD supports it long enough that you can take advantage of an upheaval in changes like Bulldozer to Zen transition. Intel is barely enough to get a Tick change, which is not worth upgrading except for the poor people(I mean those that spend all their income on frivolous items over investing).

I'm not convinced this really matters outside the DIY market where people are upgrading piecemeal. No one is upgrading CPUs of PCs they bought at Dell, whether it was a consumer buying one at a time or a corporation buying them in lots of 10K at a time.

Heck, we're well under 10% of fully built PCs that EVER have their case opened post sale, even for simple upgrades/repairs like RAM or storage. So you can bet the number that have their CPU upgraded is likely to be under 1%.

Do PC OEMs care? Does it make life harder for Dell if every new Intel CPU has a different socket? I have a hard time imagining it affects them. Same for any reasonable large white box OEM. Do the small shops that build a few hundred to a few thousand PCs a year still exist? Maybe they care.

Beyond them, it is just the DIY market who cares, and even then not people like me who build a PC like the one I built last May and won't later upgrade the CPU - I'll just build a new PC with new everything when I reach that point (and by that time we'll be on DDR6 or LPDDR6 LPCAMMs, heck maybe even LPDDR7 lol) I've never seen any stats on how big that is, i.e. if the PC market as a whole is 250 million a year, what percentage of that is DIY? 1%? 5%? I really don't know.

 

[DavidC1]

I'm not convinced this really matters outside the DIY market where people are upgrading piecemeal. No one is upgrading CPUs of PCs they bought at Dell, whether it was a consumer buying one at a time or a corporation buying them in lots of 10K at a time.

Heck, we're well under 10% of fully built PCs that EVER have their case opened post sale, even for simple upgrades/repairs like RAM or storage. So you can bet the number that have their CPU upgraded is likely to be under 1%.

Intel stated in a presentation about 10 years ago or so the enthusiasts have an outwardly impact compared to average users and concluded they affect the buying decisions of many. I can't remember the number but it was close to ten.

If it didn't matter at all, then upselling wouldn't exist, or countless "gaming oriented" accessories that are marked up excessively. The average people don't care beyond $500 laptops and $300 desktops anyway. All they really need are their Smartphones and Tablets. It would be a losing proposition for a manufacturer to cater to them since they can barely get them interested in a $300 desktop.

Do PC OEMs care? Does it make life harder for Dell if every new Intel CPU has a different socket? I have a hard time imagining it affects them. Same for any reasonable large white box OEM. Do the small shops that build a few hundred to a few thousand PCs a year still exist? Maybe they care.

Ironically it would be more annoying for a laptop vendor that would need some sort of redesign every generation, versus a desktop vendor that could use already ordered by leftover motherboards for example.

Another point to consider. Intel in 2022 when they were suffering from a sales decline had a small bright spot - their desktop division, no doubt due to Alderlake. The laptop division had quite a large decline while desktop went up few %. Actually the ASPs have increased as well. Actually the desktops were responsible for their client division not looking so terrible. Even AMD had a bad quarter.

Beyond them, it is just the DIY market who cares, and even then not people like me who build a PC like the one I built last May and won't later upgrade the CPU - I'll just build a new PC with new everything when I reach that point (and by that time we'll be on DDR6 or LPDDR6 LPCAMMs, heck maybe even LPDDR7 lol) I've never seen any stats on how big that is, i.e. if the PC market as a whole is 250 million a year, what percentage of that is DIY? 1%? 5%? I really don't know.

I actually would bother to do this depending on whether it's doing it financially. But personally only time I did was going from Celeron D to a Core 2 Duo, and it was purposeful buying a Celeron D to save money for a Core 2 Duo. And my brother's PC which I upgraded from i3 2100 to 3570K. Or my father's desktop going from Pentium Dual Core to Core 2 Quad. Rest of the time I changed motherboard and the CPU. Also, do you know when my brother started caring about his desktop? When he started gaming with his friends. Gabe Newell's conclusion he made that gaming is what drives PC purchases is correct. The ones that matter anyway. So the DIY market shouldn't be underestimated in this regard. Things like passion and enthusiasm are those unspoken "financial benefits" the accounting folks tend to forget.

The impact is not zero. Whether Intel's way of supporting barely 2 years matter versus AMD's of 6+ years is going to be an everlasting war however.

 

[tsamolotoff]

Against 7800X3D it was 7-25% faster depending on how CPU/GPU-bound the game in question was.

7950X3D (CCD0 only) @ 5.4 GHz Vs 9800X3D @ 5.7 GHz :

1) Far Cry 6 : 312 - 375 = 20.1%
2) Far Cry 5 : 377 - 445 = 18.0
3) Far Cry New Dawn : 327 - 399 = 22.0
4) Far Cry Primal : 311 - 361 = 16.0
5) Watch Dogs Legion : 313 - 350 = 11.8
6) Assassin's Creed Origins : 287 - 364 = 26.8
7) Assassin's Creed Odyssey : 281 - 322 = 14.5
8) Riders Republic : 351 - 475 = 35.3
9) Rainbow Six Extraction : 750 - 898 = 19.7
10) Immortals Fenyx Rising : 253 - 322 = 27.2
11) Final Fantasy XIV Dawntrail Benchmark : 55018 - 63010 = 14.5

225.9%/11 = +20.5%

So yes, about 20%, but if you take the clock difference into account, about 15% ish i guess.

Zen 2 to zen 3 or zen 3X3D was quite a popular in socket upgrade and that was just 1 gen.

I've went through zen+ to zen2 to zen3, then moved to AM5. Hopefully I won't get screwed and get zen6 (and it'd have new non-skimped over IO die so membw will be better)

 

[adroc_thurston]

So yes, about 20%, but if you take the clock difference into account, about 15% ish i guess.

fmax gains are part of the sauce; otherwise the bulk of aa64 club delivered jack squat these past ~5 years or so.