Trump-Biden race tightens in battleground states to almost dead even

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,644
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How many more of these threads can we expect before Election Day? If you are not using polling averages and/or are relying on unreliable pollsters you’re either making a dumb mistake or you’re engaging in motivated reasoning.

Per 538 the ‘tightening’ that we have seen, which could be completely fake, has made Trump approximately 2% more likely to win the election.

See how silly this is?
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
How many more of these threads can we expect before Election Day? If you are not using polling averages and/or are relying on unreliable pollsters you’re either making a dumb mistake or you’re engaging in motivated reasoning.

Per 538 the ‘tightening’ that we have seen, which could be completely fake, has made Trump approximately 2% more likely to win the election.

See how silly this is?

Yeh, but it gets clicks & creates doubt.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,095
37,306
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Emerson just posted a poll with a 2 point race which is moving 538's avg.

And has Trump getting 19% of the African American vote.

I have questions.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,095
37,306
136
How many more of these threads can we expect before Election Day? If you are not using polling averages and/or are relying on unreliable pollsters you’re either making a dumb mistake or you’re engaging in motivated reasoning.

Per 538 the ‘tightening’ that we have seen, which could be completely fake, has made Trump approximately 2% more likely to win the election.

See how silly this is?

Ok I'll buy that Trump sees a convention boost of a point or two. Pushing Biden all the way down to...about Obama 2008 at least temporarily.

Though we have not seen any high quality live interview polls yet and probably won't till later in the week at least. All of the internet is grasping at limited low quality or consistency troubled stuff right now.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
17,788
6,040
136
Emerson just posted a poll with a 2 point race which is moving 538's avg.

And has Trump getting 19% of the African American vote.

I have questions.
That was in Approval, he's got a three point lead in the election.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Emerson just posted a poll with a 2 point race which is moving 538's avg.

And has Trump getting 19% of the African American vote.

I have questions.

The national poll won't win the election. Pay attention to the swing states because it's the electoral college that decides the election. Here's an interesting bit from the Emerson poll-

Biden leads with voters over 65 years old 55% to 41% and with younger voters 18-29 at 61% to 34%. Trump leads with voters 30-49 53% to 41% and with voters 50-64 with 51% and Biden at 47%.

Biden's lead among seniors is a portent of doom for Trump in Florida.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,644
50,881
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Ok I'll buy that Trump sees a convention boost of a point or two. Pushing Biden all the way down to...about Obama 2008 at least temporarily.

Though we have not seen any high quality live interview polls yet and probably won't till later in the week at least. All of the internet is grasping at limited low quality or consistency troubled stuff right now.
It’s certainly possible that the election has gotten closer. I’ve said before that I would be amazed if Biden won by his previous margins as it would be a historic blowout.

The thing is that the exact same thing happens every time there is an abnormally good poll for Trump. Conservatives go ape shit over it because it makes them feel good and liberals go ape shit over it because for some reason they like to feel bad.

It’s one poll, and it’s a poll that only had Biden up by 4 in July so it’s a net move of 2% for them. It’s simply not that big a deal.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,095
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The national poll won't win the election. Pay attention to the swing states because it's the electoral college that decides the election. Here's an interesting bit from the Emerson poll-



Biden's lead among seniors is a portent of doom for Trump in Florida.

While I think Biden is ahead with seniors any poll that shows Trump doing better with AA voters than any Republican has in my living memory (more than double what he did in 16 also) should be taken with some caution.
 
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May 13, 2009
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Tbh I think Trump has completely fucked up the covid response. I think he is a terrible leader and president. I still don't know that I will vote Democrat any longer. The whole "mostly peaceful protests" thing is absolutely terrifying. This country is heading down the shitter and not a Democrat in office has said stood up for the police or the poor business owners who are losing their livelihood due to some ignorant rioters and looters.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
11,880
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I am seeing a very similar trend to 2016. Not many Biden signs, but an increasing number of Trump signs, banners and bumper stickers, which is even more striking living in a blue part of the country.

Not surprising.. Trumpanzees want to fight and shoot someone.. the left only wants medicare for all, free college and a living wage. Biden gives the left nothing so he's just got corporate shills voting for him.

If Bernie had clinched the nomination you'd see tremendous amount of vocal support and mobilization and signs.

I sure as heck am not voting for Trump but I'm 99% not voting for Biden until he gives me what I want.

Oh and my dad still thinks Trump will win.. why? because he's forceful and Americans don't want a weak sauce for POTUS.
 

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,224
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Anyone who thinks violent protests are new to this country needs to open a book or watch a documentary. This country isn't spiraling into some mad max vortex of anarchy. We've had horrific and misguided violence in the streets since the country was founded, we just see all of this front and center with modern news instead of reading about it in some side column in a newspaper.

As far as "standing up for the cops"--the establishment and the cops themselves seem to be doing very well standing up for themselves no matter how many black folks they choke out or shoot in the back. I wouldn't worry about them.

Anyone not voting for Biden is a half vote for Trump at the least. Will that, after four years, get you closer to what you are after? All I know is that it will be another four years of climate change denial, a couple more Kavanaughs added to the Supreme Court, and more tearing down of every single government agency that might actually be needed. I'm not sure how many environmental protection regulations are actually left, but they won't be there long! Let me guess, once it all really breaks people will come to their senses and elect a progressive. What a childish, I want it my way or I'm taking by ball and going home attitude. Unless you are ultra-rich, our lives are full of lesser-evil compromises, why should politics be any different?
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,993
13,519
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Tbh I think Trump has completely fucked up the covid response. I think he is a terrible leader and president. I still don't know that I will vote Democrat any longer. The whole "mostly peaceful protests" thing is absolutely terrifying. This country is heading down the shitter and not a Democrat in office has said stood up for the police or the poor business owners who are losing their livelihood due to some ignorant rioters and looters.

But who be these perps?

 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Tbh I think Trump has completely fucked up the covid response. I think he is a terrible leader and president. I still don't know that I will vote Democrat any longer. The whole "mostly peaceful protests" thing is absolutely terrifying. This country is heading down the shitter and not a Democrat in office has said stood up for the police or the poor business owners who are losing their livelihood due to some ignorant rioters and looters.

Be more careful of your sources, please. It's not like the country is in flames or that Trump will actually fix anything unless we make him Dictator. I think he'd like that.
 
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JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
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Tbh I think Trump has completely fucked up the covid response. I think he is a terrible leader and president. I still don't know that I will vote Democrat any longer. The whole "mostly peaceful protests" thing is absolutely terrifying. This country is heading down the shitter and not a Democrat in office has said stood up for the police or the poor business owners who are losing their livelihood due to some ignorant rioters and looters.

As if there was ever any doubt that you'd find a reason to not vote against Trump.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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As if there was ever any doubt that you'd find a reason to not vote against Trump.
Man if he’s concerned about people losing their businesses and politicians not caring he’s going to be really mad when he finds out that Trump’s COVID incompetence has caused probably 1,000 times as many businesses to close and Trump has been very clear he doesn’t give a shit.

Haha, just kidding.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
11,880
8,300
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As if there was ever any doubt that you'd find a reason to not vote against Trump.

I'm 1000% sure, anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again. Infact I'd place a bet on it.

The only ones I'm not sure about is the "left". They didn't endear themselves to Hillary and I'm not so certain they'll endear themselves to Biden so it may very well be the repeat..
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,095
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If Bernie had clinched the nomination you'd see tremendous amount of vocal support and mobilization and signs.

If Bernie really was that popular he would have at least done better in the 2020 primary than 2016. The groundswell of support that was supposed to materialize never arrived. Also on the yard sign thing: We ordered one three weeks ago and they're still backordered.

I sure as heck am not voting for Trump but I'm 99% not voting for Biden until he gives me what I want.

Ok give that you're not getting a super progressive president like Bernie the fulcrum of progressiveness shifts to the more liberal Ds in the house. Do you think they'd have more luck advancing policy under a Biden administration or a Trump administration?
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,993
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I dont know, if word has gotten to oilfield that Trump has botched the covid response and is now on to “herd immunity”.... maybe there is hope.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
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Ok give that you're not getting a super progressive president like Bernie the fulcrum of progressiveness shifts to the more liberal Ds in the house. Do you think they'd have more luck advancing policy under a Biden administration or a Trump administration?

To be absolutely honest.. absolutely nothing progressive will happen with Pelosi as speaker. She's a corporatist that has to be primaried and removed.
 

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,616
4,705
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I think someone out there may owe an apology to Don Lemon.
Or will P&N start to claim CNN as faux news, for presenting a harsh truth?



I expect it is backlash for the Riots. Violence is one certain way to send voters running the other direction.


Say what? The violence is happening in Trump's America. He's the President. It's on him.

Be. Here. Now.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,095
37,306
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To be absolutely honest.. absolutely nothing progressive will happen with Pelosi as speaker. She's a corporatist that has to be primaried and removed.

If you don't like her wait till I tell you about Manchin and Sinema.

Really this sounds like a willingness to settle for a backsliding on progressive values in the form of GOP governance across the board in perpetuity until a list of things that are not likely to happen...happens. Any progressive gains are by political necessity going to be incremental unless you'd rather not have any at all.
 

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,616
4,705
136
I'm 1000% sure, anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again. Infact I'd place a bet on it.

The only ones I'm not sure about is the "left". They didn't endear themselves to Hillary and I'm not so certain they'll endear themselves to Biden so it may very well be the repeat..



That Bro talk is getting stale, Bro.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,461
996
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Traflgar a GOP polling firm Is skewing a lot of the state polling when talking about aggregate polls. They are saying shy Trump votes are 6-8% of his voters. I believe they are massively overstating it. USC also takes into account that phenomenon and they have Biden +11 to +14 nationally. USC has been consistently accurate since 2012.

As for yards signs, statistical analysis/research have show they aren’t really predictor of winning. If it was accurate gauge of winning we would have Senator Beto and not Senator Cruz if it was.

So we will see. Is USC right or is Tralfagar.

What almost everyone agrees on is Georgia is very much in play and we now have more swing states than ever. There are 15 potential swing states right now. Biden has many more paths to victory but Trump still has a few.