Trump-Biden race tightens in battleground states to almost dead even

Page 3 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,326
10,230
136
I dont know, if word has gotten to oilfield that Trump has botched the covid response and is now on to “herd immunity”.... maybe there is hope.
Herd immunity must be another word for "I completely screwed this up, it's not going to magically go away after all, screw you all, I've got an election to win, so this is plan B" immunity.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cytg111

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
9,750
6,364
136
Traflgar a GOP polling firm Is skewing a lot of the state polling when talking about aggregate polls. They are saying shy Trump votes are 6-8% of his voters. I believe they are massively overstating it. USC also takes into account that phenomenon and they have Biden +11 to +14 nationally. USC has been consistently accurate since 2012.

As for yards signs, statistical analysis/research have show they aren’t really predictor of winning. If it was accurate gauge of winning we would have Senator Beto and not Senator Cruz if it was.

So we will see. Is USC right or is Tralfagar.

What almost everyone agrees on is Georgia is very much in play and we now have more swing states than ever. There are 15 potential swing states right now. Biden has many more paths to victory but Trump still has a few.

You're forgetting voting blocks.. people move.. change their registration.. don't sign close enough to their name.. so 2-3% of people can't even vote even if they want to.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,378
7,443
136
Anyone who thinks violent protests are new to this country needs to open a book or watch a documentary. This country isn't spiraling into some mad max vortex of anarchy.

I see your history citation and I raise you a Trump. This country never had a Trump before.

There are three concurrent issues at play.

Fire. (Race/ Political Riots)
Fuel. (30 million evictions)
Spark. (Spoiled ballots contest the election)

Next few months are going to get real bad. And people's political anger fueled by an economic disaster and a government in chaos will result in civil unrest the likes of which we have never seen. Look for proof, if the number of people shot at these riots starts to increase. Or maybe this nation is stable enough to wait until it does not know who the President is. Could take that long... but then a hungry and homeless people need a militia to join so it may not take that long.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
If you don't like her wait till I tell you about Manchin and Sinema.

Really this sounds like a willingness to settle for a backsliding on progressive values in the form of GOP governance across the board in perpetuity until a list of things that are not likely to happen...happens. Any progressive gains are by political necessity going to be incremental unless you'd rather not have any at all.

He's full of shit, anyway. There are lots of progressive bills gathering dust under McConnell's care, including HB-1.
 
  • Like
Reactions: feralkid

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
7,535
7,660
136
Too soon to say. Trump has one narrow path to victory and Democrats seem inclined to pave it for him.
Yes, Republican voters are not the reason a Republican politician gets elected.

You're very consistent with that argument. Definitely makes the BothSidesDoIt™ BigLie that you tell flow a little easier.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jman19 and ch33zw1z

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,449
9,834
136
Tbh I think Trump has completely fucked up the covid response. I think he is a terrible leader and president. I still don't know that I will vote Democrat any longer. The whole "mostly peaceful protests" thing is absolutely terrifying. This country is heading down the shitter and not a Democrat in office has said stood up for the police or the poor business owners who are losing their livelihood due to some ignorant rioters and looters.
The amount of businesses hurt and people hurt by the rioting isn't even a tiny fraction of that hurt by Trump's inability to lead on COVID. And Biden has condemned the violence.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fenixgoon

Sunburn74

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2009
5,025
2,593
136
Yes, Republican voters are not the reason a Republican politician gets elected.

You're very consistent with that argument. Definitely makes the BothSidesDoIt™ BigLie that you tell flow a little easier.
This technically is often true. The voting population is generally a fraction of the voting eligible population and republican voters have actually be generally decreasing in number with demographic changes in the country. In many federally elected positions and state positions, republicans are mostly being kept afloat by gerrymandering and voter suppression, steps to maximize the impact of their relatively stable or declining voter base whilst minimizing the impact of the growing opposition voter base. The actual impact of voters showing up in some states due to excitement/motivation may be quite a bit less than the impact of say really well gerrymandered lines.

In a fair contest with no voter suppression and no gerrymandering, I think you'd see about 1/2 of GOP seats in the house probably go away. The impact of voter suppression with state wide races is not clear but given that many republican senators even in deep red states are only winning by 5 percentage points (heck ted cruz won texas by just 3% the last time round), its not hard to imagine what would happen if all of a sudden minorities, felons, youths and college students and other people the GOP is desperately trying to keep away from the voter box suddenly can. Just ask yourself what would happen if every state allowed all mail voting to every eligible man, woman and child?
 
  • Like
Reactions: jman19

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
7,535
7,660
136
This technically is often true. The voting population is generally a fraction of the voting eligible population and republican voters have actually be generally decreasing in number with demographic changes in the country. In many federally elected positions and state positions, republicans are mostly being kept afloat by gerrymandering and voter suppression, steps to maximize the impact of their relatively stable or declining voter base whilst minimizing the impact of the growing opposition voter base. The actual impact of voters showing up in some states due to excitement/motivation may be quite a bit less than the impact of say really well gerrymandered lines.

In a fair contest with no voter suppression and no gerrymandering, I think you'd see about 1/2 of GOP seats in the house probably go away. The impact of voter suppression with state wide races is not clear but given that many republican senators even in deep red states are only winning by 5 percentage points (heck ted cruz won texas by just 3% the last time round), its not hard to imagine what would happen if all of a sudden minorities, felons, youths and college students and other people the GOP is desperately trying to keep away from the voter box suddenly can. Just ask yourself what would happen if every state allowed all mail voting to every eligible man, woman and child?
I understand all of that.

Collaborator isn't saying that though.

Collaborator was blaming a Republican President on Democrats instead of 64 million Republican voters.

Because BothSides. The BigLie he consistently sells here because that's what collaborators do. Very yawn-worthy, but it is what it is.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jman19 and ch33zw1z

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
37,733
18,003
146
Yes, Republican voters are not the reason a Republican politician gets elected.

You're very consistent with that argument. Definitely makes the BothSidesDoIt™ BigLie that you tell flow a little easier.

"Look what you made me do", "personal responsibility"

Just like 2016, the Dem candidate is way better an option.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jman19 and nickqt
May 13, 2009
12,333
612
126
You say that to him as if he cares about objective, observable reality.
You can't speak or write one negative thing about the democratic party or BLM. Not one. Think about that for a second.. Seriously think about it. You have closed your mind to rational thought or discussion and you are calling me out on rational thought? You're dealing with someone whose mind is free. I am objective and clear headed. You on the other hand are operating at half speed, son. I've mostly given up on this forum because it's full of a bunch of ignorant irrational man children. You guys can't stand to hear one objective thought unless it fits your narrative.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
Polls, Schmolls.

There is a crack on the sidewalk outside my home. If I step on it Biden wins. If I don't step on it Trump wins. I'll let you guys know who the winner will be tomorrow. :p
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
37,733
18,003
146
Polls, Schmolls.

There is a crack on the sidewalk outside my home. If I step on it Biden wins. If I don't step on it Trump wins. I'll let you guys know who the winner will be tomorrow. :p

Where's that infrastructure bill? Oh that's right, actual governing isn't R's thing ;)
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
And WOW, like only 60 days to go. At this point I'd bet that Trump isn't wondering about winning or losing, Trump is figuring ways that he can remain in office whatever happens. Trump tired screwing up the postal system, and then pretending the virus was gone, and his latest with pretending we have a vaccine all ready to go on the shelf. Haha... HAHA I say. Can you imagine how many people will run to be injected with some "fast-tracked" vaccine approved by Donald Trump and only by Donald Trump? Does anyone believe that one single Trumpie will be the first in line for THE TRUMP COVID VACCINE? Untested, unproven, and.... unbelievable? Trumpies won't even wear masks, so how the hell can they be convinced to take an injection just so that Donald Trump looks good? Forget about curing the virus, whatever vaccine Trump has forced the CDC to release with have nothing to do with curing viruses, the vaccine will have one and only one goal, to get Donald Trump re-elected in November. Only 60 days to go, people. HA, HA, HAHAHA.
 
Feb 4, 2009
34,494
15,729
136
I am seeing a very similar trend to 2016. Not many Biden signs, but an increasing number of Trump signs, banners and bumper stickers, which is even more striking living in a blue part of the country.

I heard on the radio “unnamed” intelligence sources are saying Russia has been working on an October Surprise again....
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,046
12,712
136
You can't speak or write one negative thing about the democratic party or BLM. Not one. Think about that for a second.. Seriously think about it. You have closed your mind to rational thought or discussion and you are calling me out on rational thought? You're dealing with someone whose mind is free. I am objective and clear headed. You on the other hand are operating at half speed, son. I've mostly given up on this forum because it's full of a bunch of ignorant irrational man children. You guys can't stand to hear one objective thought unless it fits your narrative.


Wait for the Biden part, but really watch the whole thing, if you are that clear headed and woke and what not ;) .. Also take note that the reporting is consistent with first hand witnesses on this very forum.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zorba

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,716
47,398
136
You can't speak or write one negative thing about the democratic party or BLM. Not one. Think about that for a second.. Seriously think about it. You have closed your mind to rational thought or discussion and you are calling me out on rational thought? You're dealing with someone whose mind is free. I am objective and clear headed. You on the other hand are operating at half speed, son. I've mostly given up on this forum because it's full of a bunch of ignorant irrational man children. You guys can't stand to hear one objective thought unless it fits your narrative.
I’m still confused as to why you’re angry at Democrats over job losses from protests but apparently not as upset with Trump over millions and millions of job losses due to his incompetence with COVID.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
7,535
7,660
136
You can't speak or write one negative thing about the democratic party or BLM. Not one. Think about that for a second.. Seriously think about it. You have closed your mind to rational thought or discussion and you are calling me out on rational thought? You're dealing with someone whose mind is free. I am objective and clear headed. You on the other hand are operating at half speed, son. I've mostly given up on this forum because it's full of a bunch of ignorant irrational man children. You guys can't stand to hear one objective thought unless it fits your narrative.
I can criticize the Democratic Party for days, and the BLM protests have outlived their usefulness by about a month and a half.

Again, you don't care about objective, observable reality.

Thanks for nothing, collaborator.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
9,750
6,364
136
That Bro talk is getting stale, Bro.

Idiocy is getting old!

Trump is running as a populist and picking popular positions while Biden keeps getting more and more corporate.

Don't be surprised if you lose because you had rose tinted glasses on. You can't convince Trumpanzees what is good and what is not.

 
Last edited:
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Emerson just posted a poll with a 2 point race which is moving 538's avg.

And has Trump getting 19% of the African American vote.

I have questions.
Defund the police!

Ring a bell? You know who doesn't want to defund the police? Most african americans that depend on then to police their communities.

You know who doesn't care? Stupid spoiled suburban white morons.


But again, just keep listening to eski. It's silly to talk about these polls and illustrate how similar they were to 2016. It's all a dream! Biden will easily win, so you can just stay home.