Trump-Biden race tightens in battleground states to almost dead even

[JEDI]

CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump among registered voters has significantly narrowed since June, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, even as the former vice president maintains an advantage over the President on several top issues and his choice of California Sen. Kamala Harris as a...

www.cnn.com

Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.

woah.. thats a quick catch up by Trump.
and this was BEFORE the Repubs national convention.

edit:
it gets worse.
Trump is up 1% in battleground states over his 2016 stats for the same time period (Aug 2020 vs Aug 2016)

 

[Jaskalas]

I think someone out there may owe an apology to Don Lemon.
Or will P&N start to claim CNN as faux news, for presenting a harsh truth?

and this was BEFORE the Repubs national convention.

I expect it is backlash for the Riots. Violence is one certain way to send voters running the other direction.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Too soon to say. Trump has one narrow path to victory and Democrats seem inclined to pave it for him.

 

[soundforbjt]

One poll is hard to hang your hat on.

President: general election Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[eelw]

Lol look at that Trafalger poll

 

[Brainonska511]

16 "battleground" states? They use that terminology and it may be true based on current polling, but recent elections would not include some of those states in the public consciousness as "battlegrounds":

Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin

 

[Dulanic]

I expect it is backlash for the Riots. Violence is one certain way to send voters running the other direction.

I agree it is a lot. The left is showing a we understand that, don't worry it will be OK approach. That isn't going to win a lot of people.

 

[Pohemi]

Not that "I saw it coming", but I did foresee the possibility and half-expected it. It happens every fucking time and then it's neck and neck right up through election night and you end up sitting on the edge of your chair waiting for results. Ughhh.

 

[K1052]

Maybe we want to look at the history of the CNN/SSRS poll before we become too excitable here

Averaged out you get about what 538 has Biden at today.

 

[K1052]

16 "battleground" states? They use that terminology and it may be true based on current polling, but recent elections would not include some of those states in the public consciousness as "battlegrounds":

Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin

Poolled "battleground" polls are the dumbest of the polls. TV news likes them because it's possible to craft the appearance of a closer race be that actually the case or not.

 

[Greenman]

Too soon to say. Trump has one narrow path to victory and Democrats seem inclined to pave it for him.

It's starting to look like he'll lose in spite of the democrats, not because of them.
Though if they run with the "Trump isn't worth debating" mantra, I think that will put Joe on the ropes. There are to many ways to attack that decision, and only one valid reason to make it.

 

[K1052]

It's starting to look like he'll lose in spite of the democrats, not because of them.
Though if they run with the "Trump isn't worth debating" mantra, I think that will put Joe on the ropes. There are to many ways to attack that decision, and only one valid reason to make it.

This seems analogous to the line of thought Pelosi was going to cost the Dems the house majority in 2018.

Anyway Biden has said repeatedly and consistently that he'll debate Trump on schedule. Even Trump has stopped really arguing that it won't happen.

 

[Paratus]

Accidentally put this in the other thread:


According to 538 of the swing states that put Joe currently over the line to win (if the election was held today) polls show his % chance of winning each state:

• AZ 53-47
• Nebraska’s 2nd 56-44
• FL 61-39
• PA 68-32

These are the ones to watch closely as they put Joe over 270 (B315 to T223)

The closest swing state Joe is currently losing is NC at 46-54

 

[Brainonska511]

Poolled "battleground" polls are the dumbest of the polls. TV news likes them because it's possible to craft the appearance of a closer race be that actually the case or not.

Yeah, it seems to be more about stoking conflict for ratings more than actually informing.

Also, Texas and Georgia being considered battlegrounds seems like it could be news in its own right and should be really bad for Trump's campaign: having to spend resources securing traditionally red states...

 

[tweaker2]

Trump and the Repub party leadership he is complicit with has learned quite well over the years Trump's been in office that the more they lie to their constituency the better their constituency likes Trump and the party they belong to.

Better to believe a pack of blatant lies than to admit that building the foundation of the party on Trump's rump was a huge miscalculation to the point where they have their own party members (Lincoln Project etc.) calling for his head on a platter or pike.

The party's base is owned and operated by Trump and his sycophant underlings, with Moscow Mitch the Enabler claiming no stewardship nor accountability over the debilitating effects Trump has perpetrated against the very party he's in control of exclusively because the chaotic situation now in play has allowed him to surreptitiously jam the courts with lifetime conservative political activists beholden to the party and not the people of the nation of whom they're supposed to serve.

 

[KMFJD]

lol

 

[Jhhnn]

We're supposed to get excited about an outlier poll from 2 weeks ago?

 

[soulcougher73]

One thing that can help the Dems by dropping it for now. Especially these battleground states.

 

[Starbuck1975]

It's starting to look like he'll lose in spite of the democrats, not because of them.
Though if they run with the "Trump isn't worth debating" mantra, I think that will put Joe on the ropes. There are to many ways to attack that decision, and only one valid reason to make it.

I am seeing a very similar trend to 2016. Not many Biden signs, but an increasing number of Trump signs, banners and bumper stickers, which is even more striking living in a blue part of the country.

 

[shortylickens]

That's absolutely terrifying.
I understand now that in 2016 Donald and his team were just phenomenal bullshit artists and Fox News had been brainwashing people for decades. That explains his win back then.
But after 4 years of horrible terrible shit and particularly whats happened so far this year I see no good excuse for the Average American to even be thinking about more Donald. The only explanation is these people are so brainwashed they honestly believe the obvious fascism is in fact not fascism and that means our nation really is filled with zombies. That all by itself terrifies me.

 

[soundforbjt]

That's absolutely terrifying.
I understand now that in 2016 Donald and his team were just phenomenal bullshit artists and Fox News had been brainwashing people for decades. That explains his win back then.
But after 4 years of horrible terrible shit and particularly whats happened so far this year I see no good excuse for the Average American to even be thinking about more Donald. The only explanation is these people are so brainwashed they honestly believe the obvious fascism is in fact not fascism and that means our nation really is filled with zombies. That all by itself terrifies me.

NEVER underestimate the STUPIDITY of the AVERAGE voter !

 

[purbeast0]

That's absolutely terrifying.
I understand now that in 2016 Donald and his team were just phenomenal bullshit artists and Fox News had been brainwashing people for decades. That explains his win back then.
But after 4 years of horrible terrible shit and particularly whats happened so far this year I see no good excuse for the Average American to even be thinking about more Donald. The only explanation is these people are so brainwashed they honestly believe the obvious fascism is in fact not fascism and that means our nation really is filled with zombies. That all by itself terrifies me.

You just have to remember how stupid your average American is.

And then remember that 160 million people are even more stupid than that person.

 

[Franz316]

If Biden wins Florida I don't see how dumpty has any chance

 

[uclaLabrat]

He pretty much doesn't. If biden wins florida and Pennsylvania, it is very much lights out.

 

[Jhhnn]

He pretty much doesn't. If biden wins florida and Pennsylvania, it is very much lights out.

Florida & any other battleground state Trump won in 2016. I figure it will be a lot more than that. Trump had 304 EC votes in 2016. Florida has 29.