Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

[ClockHound]

It will be even more impressive if all those CPUs sell out again.

Not that impressive if Mark maintains his current pace. But, I just need one. Ok, maybe two. Maybe Mark will give us not-that-early adopters a break.

 

[darkswordsman17]

I'd be really upset if I were Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, or any of the other American companies making use of TSMC fabs if my product supply got cut off from something I didn't do. Cleverly, GF has listed some of those companies as targets in the suit, but I'm curious as to whether any of them were complicit in "stealing" GF's intellectual property?



Lots of parties would counter-sue. GF named so many. And I'm not convinced a judge would issue an injunction with countersuits in play, either.



The instant GF went this route, lawyers got to tap into the tech revenue stream. It remains to be seen how much money they can siphon from the stream.



It will be even more impressive if all those CPUs sell out again.

The really interesting thing would be if any of that was part of what TSMC claims Samsung stole a few years back, and GF then utilized it (and are now claiming ownership) via their deal with Samsung. I'd think not (since it goes back to before their deal with Samsung at 14nm), but, it'd be kinda funny if it did end up that way.

I think GF is hoping that those companies will look at the cost of lawyering up properly compared to settling, and would take the latter route. I have a hunch they'd take a pretty steep discount compared to the potential losses/costs if there were bans/injunctions to stop sale, as it'd save GF legal costs as well. Quick money grab before GF probably gets dumped fully.

Spoiler: Total rampant speculation

It'd be really interesting if AMD ends up doing well enough to buy back the fabs at steep discounts, and then works a licensing agreement with Samsung (or TSMC) for process tech (I actually think it'd probably be more that Samsung or TSMC would buy the fabs and then they produce chips for the US market; heck maybe Intel would even as they're apparently considering using TSMC and Samsung to fab anyway). It'd be a way to bypass tariffs and increase capacity. Apple could maybe even be a dark horse that might would buy if the price is right (and if maybe work that as their payment for the patent lawsuit). Which GFs non-finfet stuff I think is supposed to be pretty good for way wireless tech, and we know Apple is supposedly developing their own 5G modem.

Lisa Su to IBM, wherein they buy AMD, then buy GF back. I'm not saying that'd be smart, but I feel like it might make some sense if IBM is really trying to make the case to get Lisa and have her take over. Make AMD a primarily datacenter focused company (which I think makes sense even for gaming in the future). They could license and/or sell to other companies to make consumer stuff (think console like deals, or IP deals like with Samsung). Which depending on what they do, like for instance maybe they make systems again (basically to serve as terminals to tie into their system management for companies, think laptops and SFF stuff; as well as workstations), they could sell that to consumers too (think basically console type systems - think SteamBox; I personally think that, especially the next consoles, would do well if they'd sell them as just normal PCs running Windows and/or Linux as they'd be powerful enough for most people). Watch them then try to buy the ThinkPad IP back. (Like I said, I'm not saying its smart, just thinking if someone were wanting to resurrect IBM while transforming it, go the whole route of getting the IP but taking a different tact; I don't think Lisa would do that, other than I personally do think AMD and IBM would match up well since AMD is positioning to do very well in data center which is IBM's bread and butter and IBM can pour more resources to keep AMD's R&D churning; GF would only make sense if the price is right and they have some setup in place to license process technology or something to be able to update the fabs; which there could be a case, if nothing else as a US arm for selling to Western countries but the wireless stuff could be important for a future where they're wanting most of the processing done via the datacenter and then passed to terminals where the latter becomes simplified basically just interface and communication).

 

[DrMrLordX]

The really interesting thing would be if any of that was part of what TSMC claims Samsung stole a few years back, and GF then utilized it (and are now claiming ownership) via their deal with Samsung. I'd think not (since it goes back to before their deal with Samsung at 14nm), but, it'd be kinda funny if it did end up that way.

Allegedly the engineer that was responsible for that theft leaked the same information to SMIC. Allegedly.

I think GF is hoping that those companies will look at the cost of lawyering up properly compared to settling, and would take the latter route. I have a hunch they'd take a pretty steep discount compared to the potential losses/costs if there were bans/injunctions to stop sale, as it'd save GF legal costs as well. Quick money grab before GF probably gets dumped fully.

Ah yes. Yet another demonstration of how court systems can be horribly broken.

It'd be really interesting if AMD ends up doing well enough to buy back the fabs at steep discounts

Those would have to be steep discounts. AMD would be buying into potential liabilities. I doubt it would do much to help them stabilize supplies of their chips in any case. TSMC already has them well in-hand. Eventually someone is going to want GF's fab capacity. It's just a matter of retooling the fabs for better processes than anything in GF's current portfolio.

 

[DisEnchantment]

Damn I got an email from Mindfactory that my order is postponed to 3rd week of Sept., ... 3 Months.
I am running 3400G now in my X570 rig, now just wondering if I should cancel.

 

[lixlax]

Damn I got an email from Mindfactory that my order is postponed to 3rd week of Sept., ... 3 Months.
I am running 3400G now in my X570 rig, now just wondering if I should cancel.

I bet there is higher chance to get the 3950X on launch day (sometime in september) than the 3900X. It seems like AMD clearly underestimated the demand for Ryzen 3000 and who knows how well new Epycs are selling, if well then they might allocate even more chiplets over there as originally planned.

 

[Markfw]

Well, it appears that the EPYC chips may also have a supply problem. On newegg, you can not even get 2 7742's, only ONE.

 

[Ailurophile]

These sellers have updated their projected in-stock dates for the 3900X: Amazon Oct 6th, B&H Oct 11th, and ShopBLT Oct 8th.

edit: clarification

 

[Muadib]

At this point, I'm waiting for the 3950x.

I see that Amazon raised the price to $590.77. WTF!

 

[Markfw]

At this point, I'm waiting for the 3950x.

I see that Amazon raised the price to $590.77. WTF!

newegg went up to $530, but from another reseller, you can buy one today for over $1000

 

[DrMrLordX]

This is not a positive development.

 

[Ailurophile]

This is not a positive development.

Sigh. I ended up ordering a 2600X yesterday to hold me over. Got work to do, and tired of my new build being splayed open indefinitely on my dining table like a patient mid-operation.

When my 3900X finally arrives from B&H ten years from now, I might return it and just wait to get the 3950X like @Muadib.

edit: spelling names

 

[Muadib]

Sigh. I ended up ordering a 2600X yesterday to hold me over. Got work to do, and tired of my new build being splayed open indefinitely on my dining table like a patient mid-operation.

When my 3900X finally arrives from B&H ten years from now, I might return it and just wait to get the 3950X like @Maudib.

The way it looks, the 3950x will be available before the 3900x will. Sucks, but it's not much we can do about it.

Oh, and it Muadib.

 

[Muadib]

newegg went up to $530, but from another reseller, you can buy one today for over $1000

I didn't see your post. I could live with $530, but $1000 is nuts.

 

[Ailurophile]

I didn't see your post. I could live with $530, but $1000 is nuts.

Apologies on the misspell, Muadib.

Not getting political, but I wonder if the price jack from Amazon is due to the 15% China tariffs proposed by our president. I can't recall ever seeing a product "Shipped and Sold by Amazon" being sold over MSRP.

 

[Kocicak]

In my opinion , silence in this situation is not acceptable anymore.

If AMD said:

"Everything is running fine, we just underestimated demand and more sizeable supplies will start hitting markets in X months."

or

"We are now concentrating on producing 3950X and 3900X will stay in limited supply for the next Y months"

or

"We have troubles finding chiplets needed to meet the specifications of the 3900X, it will stay in limited supply, however we have a more reasonably clocked version coming , which will cover the demand and will start shipping in volume after Z months."

Anything would be better than saying nothing. Everybody would welcome honesty and not being left in the dark!

 

[jpiniero]

Apologies on the misspell, Muadib.

Not getting political, but I wonder if the price jack from Amazon is due to the 15% China tariffs proposed by our president. I can't recall ever seeing a product "Shipped and Sold by Amazon" being sold over MSRP.

Nah, it's just the auto-gouger. They haven't had the 3900X actually in stock since Aug 17th... that's quite a while ago.

 

[NostaSeronx]

There is always room for an intermittent generation.
12LP+ IOD and N7P CCD;
3970X
3920X
3820X
3720X
3620X
3620
3520

Matisse was supposedly delayed for sometime. So, Matisse Plus can be around the corner.

 

[moinmoin]

In my opinion , silence in this situation is not acceptable anymore.

If AMD said:

"Everything is running fine, we just underestimated demand and more sizeable supplies will start hitting markets in X months."

or

"We are now concentrating on producing 3950X and 3900X will stay in limited supply for the next Y months"

or

"We have troubles finding chiplets needed to meet the specifications of the 3900X, it will stay in limited supply, however we have a more reasonably clocked version coming , which will cover the demand and will start shipping in volume after Z months."

Anything would be better than saying nothing. Everybody would welcome honesty and not being left in the dark!

"AMD is pleased with the strong momentum of 3rd Gen AMD Ryzen™ processors in the PC enthusiast and gaming communities."

"TOO STRONG!!! ARRRGhhhh..."

 

[Kocicak]

OK, a month has passed and at least in the Czech republic 3900X is still not in stock anywhere.

What is the situation in your country? Did some retailer in your country comment about availability of the processor, numbers at which it is being delivered to them etc?

Has AMD said anything lately about this ongoing shortage?

 

[Muadib]

OK, a month has passed and at least in the Czech republic 3900X is still not in stock anywhere.

What is the situation in your country? Did some retailer in your country comment about availability of the processor, numbers at which it is being delivered to them etc?

Has AMD said anything lately about this ongoing shortage?

Here in the US, it looks like the middle of October.

 

[scannall]

By the looks of things, they underestimated demand for the 3900X. But it's hard to squeeze in more 3900X production when they are busy assembling 3950X's to meet their September release date. I'm guessing you'll be able to buy 3950's before the 3900's are back in stock.

 

[Muadib]

By the looks of things, they underestimated demand for the 3900X. But it's hard to squeeze in more 3900X production when they are busy assembling 3950X's to meet their September release date. I'm guessing you'll be able to buy 3950's before the 3900's are back in stock.

I agree with you. I'm grabbing the first one to come in stock.

 

[fleshconsumed]

Man, turns out 4K bluray encodes are sloooooow even on 3700X. On one hand 3950X would provide a nice speed boost, on the other hand it's $750+tax and given the scarcity of two chiplet models chances of me snagging an open box at Microcenter are slim to none. Do I buy one at MSRP anyway, or do I wait and hope availability improves by year's end. Decisions decisions...

 

[Topweasel]

Man, turns out 4K bluray encodes are sloooooow even on 3700X. On one hand 3950X would provide a nice speed boost, on the other hand it's $750+tax and given the scarcity of two chiplet models chances of me snagging an open box at Microcenter are slim to none. Do I buy one at MSRP anyway, or do I wait and hope availability improves by year's end. Decisions decisions...

4k work in general. I was taking a 7.5GB 4k file and trying to get it smaller. Got it down to about half the size but still took 2 hours to process the work and that was on a 3900. I won't be doing that to often on this machine and plan on getting a 3950 for the one that will. But there is some work that is just going to take its sweet sweet time. Which is all the more reasons for Mooooaaarr cores.

 

[Markfw]

4k work in general. I was taking a 7.5GB 4k file and trying to get it smaller. Got it down to about half the size but still took 2 hours to process the work and that was on a 3900. I won't be doing that to often on this machine and plan on getting a 3950 for the one that will. But there is some work that is just going to take its sweet sweet time. Which is all the more reasons for Mooooaaarr cores.

I bet my 2990wx could make fast work of it.