Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

[DrMrLordX]

I bet my 2990wx could make fast work of it.

Don't be too sure. If the encoder can make use of AVX2 (which it probably can), that'll give Matisse a significant per-core advantage. I'm sure the 2990WX would still be faster, but maybe not by as much as you'd expect. The next gen of Threadripper, however . . .

 

[Topweasel]

I bet my 2990wx could make fast work of it.

Lol I am sure it will but the 64c TR3 will do it even quicker then that. None of this is time sensitive work. Just doing it every couple years to gain back some storage space.

 

[fleshconsumed]

I bet my 2990wx could make fast work of it.

DrMrLordX is right. 2990wx is probably still going to be faster thanks to 32 cores, but 4K material is encoded in h265/HVEC which heavily utilizes AVX. Zen2 cores have noticeable performance advantage over Zen/Zen+. My 3700X is roughly 50% faster than 2700 it replaced at the same 65W TDP. I thought about getting one of the open box 2990wx at Microcenter on the "cheap" for HVEC encodes but ultimately decided against it because it just didn't make sense for my heaviest use case of HVEC encoding.

 

[Kenmitch]

Anybody else notice that Microcenter no longer even lists the 3900x?

 

[jpiniero]

Anybody else notice that Microcenter no longer even lists the 3900x?

Amazon has too, although you can still buy from the third party scalpers. Very strange. Guessing that means supply isn't coming back for awhile.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Odd. Wonder why? The latest AGESA has cleared up most of the boost controversy, so it should be full steam ahead on these things.

 

[scannall]

Odd. Wonder why? The latest AGESA has cleared up most of the boost controversy, so it should be full steam ahead on these things.

The pipeline is likely filled with the 3950X's. I'd expect the 3900's to start showing up after the 3950 is released.

 

[darkswordsman17]

Yeah, perhaps they've started binning the multi-chiplet chips more now. They might have had enough to release some 3900s, but those sold out, so they had to bin more, and the 3950 got priority for binning. Since they both have the highest clocks they almost certainly needed the most binning and with them being multi-dice that means the binning situation is kinda double.

Its also possible that the scrutiny over clocks has caused them to change how they bin chips.

 

[maddogmcgee]

Some places in aus have them on sale and in stock for about 580 us plus shipping. That's not too bad considering the usual Australia tax plus gst of 10 percent. Lots of sites are still waiting for shipments though.

 

[Ajay]

Eh, things should look pretty good by Black Friday. It takes around three months to go from ordering new wafers at the fab (TSMC) till the CPUs hit retail.

 

[prtskg]

Eh, things should look pretty good by Black Friday. It takes around three months to go from ordering new wafers at the fab (TSMC) till the CPUs hit retail.

According to TPU now it's taking 6 months for 7nm

TSMC Trembles Under 7 nm Product Orders, Increases Delivery Lead Times Threefold - Could Hit AMD Product Availability

TSMC is on the vanguard of chipset fabrication technology at this exact point in time - its 7 nm technology is the leading-edge of all large volume processes, and is being tapped by a number of companies for 7 nm silicon. One of its most relevant clients for our purposes, of course, is AMD - the...

www.techpowerup.com

 

[Markfw]

According to TPU now it's taking 6 months for 7nm

TSMC Trembles Under 7 nm Product Orders, Increases Delivery Lead Times Threefold - Could Hit AMD Product Availability

TSMC is on the vanguard of chipset fabrication technology at this exact point in time - its 7 nm technology is the leading-edge of all large volume processes, and is being tapped by a number of companies for 7 nm silicon. One of its most relevant clients for our purposes, of course, is AMD - the...

www.techpowerup.com

This is not good. AMD finally has winners, and now TSMC can't deliver enough chips.

 

[ClockHound]

This is not good. AMD finally has winners, and now TSMC can't deliver enough chips.

Hopefully just more intel fudsies. Pretty sure last srping AMD wouldn't have told TSMC: "just make us a few hundred thousand chiplets and we're good"

 

[OTG]

Hopefully just more intel fudsies. Pretty sure last srping AMD wouldn't have told TSMC: "just make us a few hundred thousand chiplets and we're good"

Decent chance AMD is behind a good chunk of that increase.
If Ryzen 3000 really is selling at 3.5 times their projections, I bet they placed a big ol' chiplet order within a week or two of launch.

 

[jpiniero]

Decent chance AMD is behind a good chunk of that increase.
If Ryzen 3000 really is selling at 3.5 times their projections, I bet they placed a big ol' chiplet order within a week or two of launch.

The iPhone 11 is selling better than analyst estimates. Perhaps Apple had anticipated that, given the price cut. And of course Apple tends to get first dibs.

That being said, all of the other Ryzen models have been easily available, so it would be tough to blame any TSMC shortages on why the 3900X is unavailable.

 

[ClockHound]

...That being said, all of the other Ryzen models have been easily available, so it would be tough to blame any TSMC shortages on why the 3900X is unavailable.

Good point. When we notice that Markfw is selling 3900X by the tray in the F/S forum, we can put 6 + 6 together. ;-)

 

[bsp2020]

This is not good. AMD finally has winners, and now TSMC can't deliver enough chips.

Here is my thoughts on TSMC capacity.

It was not long ago people were fearing weak demand. Late last year, it was reported that the demand for 7nm was weak.
https://www.extremetech.com/mobile/281816-tsmcs-7nm-node-sup...


Then a few companies took the opportunity to increase their order, though I have some reservation about the credibility of this report since NVidia does not have any 7nm product yet.
https://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/3073836/tsmc-to-ma...

Other sites reporting similar story without mentioning NVidia as one of the customer. So, maybe it's the author of the above article added NVidia to its list.
https://www.pcgamesn.com/amd/7nm-tsmc-ryzen-3000-navi-epyc-m...


And now, the demand is so strong that TSMC has to increase the lead time for 7nm product and increase its investments in the future process technology.

I'm in agreement with

Decent chance AMD is behind a good chunk of that increase.
If Ryzen 3000 really is selling at 3.5 times their projections, I bet they placed a big ol' chiplet order within a week or two of launch.

 

[OTG]

The iPhone 11 is selling better than analyst estimates. Perhaps Apple had anticipated that, given the price cut. And of course Apple tends to get first dibs.

That being said, all of the other Ryzen models have been easily available, so it would be tough to blame any TSMC shortages on why the 3900X is unavailable.

Maybe binning for top chiplets is an issue?
I'm sure there are a bunch of factors, but mostly there just hasn't been enough time for any increased production to hit retail, unless the volume crunch hit TSMC a few months ago.

 

[Markfw]

Good point. When we notice that Markfw is selling 3900X by the tray in the F/S forum, we can put 6 + 6 together. ;-)

I have no 3900x FS anywhere, what do you see that I don't ?????

I only have one active thread. Title: "3 x99 motherboards with sets of memory to match, 4 sticks each Prices reduce"

 

[fleshconsumed]

I think it's more likely that AMD underestimated demand for 3900X. 3900X is priced 2x more than 3600X but should cost less than 2X to make because 3900X still only needs one IO die for 3900X. It doesn't make sense that AMD intentionally decided to produce more of lower margin chips when the higher margin ones are flying off the shelves. I hope AMD rectified the problem and 3900X/3950X will become available soon.

 

[Justinbaileyman]

I have no 3900x FS anywhere, what do you see that I don't ?????

I think he means , in the future when and if you decide to sell them in the F/S section of the forums..

 

[Markfw]

I think he means , in the future when and if you decide to sell them in the F/S section of the forums..

That will be a while.... I still have 2 2683v3's to sell, and 4 2011-3 motherboards.

 

[bsp2020]

I think it's more likely that AMD underestimated demand for 3900X. 3900X is priced 2x more than 3600X but should cost less than 2X to make because 3900X still only needs one IO die for 3900X. It doesn't make sense that AMD intentionally decided to produce more of lower margin chips when the higher margin ones are flying off the shelves. I hope AMD rectified the problem and 3900X/3950X will become available soon.

But keep in mind that 3900X chiplets use higher quality dies that must reach higher frequency at lower power. So, though I agree some what about the idea you are presenting (AMD may have underestimated the demand for their high end parts), it could also be that AMD is just having hard time producing chips that can reach 4.6GHz even on just 1 core. I have 3900X and mine never goes higher than 4.25GHz even under single core load. I'm waiting for 1.0.0.3ABBA firmware for my motherboard to find out whether that will resolve the issue. But it looks like the TSMC process AMD is using is not really allowing very high clock frequency.

It will be interesting to find out what the supply situation is like when they finally release 3950X. It seems like they should have priced it at higher than their current MSRP of $750. Also, it will be interesting to see how often it reaches its boost clock of 4.7GHz.

 

[Kocicak]

I begin to believe that the end of September may not bring 3950X and the new threadrippers, only an apology from AMD for the upcoming delay.

On the other hand, the original report does not have to mean that AMD will have difficulty getting what they need. What if the increase of the delivery lead time is just caused by increased order from AMD which will get what they ordered in normal time?

 

[ClockHound]

I have no 3900x FS anywhere, what do you see that I don't ?????

I only have one active thread. Title: "3 x99 motherboards with sets of memory to match, 4 sticks each Prices reduce"

I don't see them... yet... but from the photos you posted... there's room in your 'lab' to store in bulk 3900Xs until just the right selling moment. ;-)
Also... I'm teasing...