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Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

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Ailurophile

Junior Member
Sep 1, 2019
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Looks like 3950X got pushed out to November:

 

Kocicak

Member
Jan 17, 2019
156
109
76
I begin to believe that the end of September may not bring 3950X and the new threadrippers, only an apology from AMD for the upcoming delay.
AMD said:
We are focusing on meeting the strong demand for our 3rd generation AMD Ryzen processors in the market and now plan to launch both the AMD Ryzen 9 3950X and initial members of the 3rd Gen AMD Ryzen Threadripper processor family in volume this November. We are confident that when enthusiasts get their hands on the world's first 16-core mainstream desktop processor and our next-generation of high-end desktop processors, the wait will be well worth it.
OK. The wait will be worth it. Cool. Al least it contains who things: 3950X and first Threadrippers come latest 30.11. and they "launch in volume" .

The questions is, in how high volume? Will it be small volume not covering demand again?

And what is going on with 3900X? They are still not on shelves. Is this ever going to change?
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
13,283
2,814
136
When AMD makes good products that every one wants to buy it can't actually fabricate the damn things to sell.
Not true. They just can't meet demand - or won't. Example:


50% of Mindfactory.de's CPU sales revenue in August 2019 was from sales of Matisse. Similarly, Matisse represented 41% of their CPU sales volume. AMD is clearly able to produce Matisse products. The big issue is that chiplets that bin well enough for the 3900x and 3950x seem to be . . . going somewhere else.
 

Kocicak

Member
Jan 17, 2019
156
109
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The big issue is that chiplets that bin well enough for the 3900x and 3950x seem to be . . . going somewhere else.
Yes. Why dont they do what I already suggested (and what they are probably planning anyway - Ryzen 3900 non X exists in official MB support list) :

In my opinion , silence in this situation is not acceptable anymore.
If AMD said:
...
"We have troubles finding chiplets needed to meet the specifications of the 3900X, it will stay in limited supply, however we have a more reasonably clocked version coming , which will cover the demand and will start shipping in volume after Z months."
... Everybody would welcome honesty and not being left in the dark!
They do not have problem producing 3600 in volume. Why dont they simply put one more chiplet in it and the problem is solved! 12 core with 4.2 GHz boost which cannot overclock much higher would sell well despite being a little bit slow in single thread. And such a CPU could be remarkably cheap (they could sell it for 250 if they wanted). They have a great chance in their hands to make a wonderfull product!

In fact, they could serve 90% of the consumer market with ONLY TWO CPUs: 3600 and 3900, being produced from the worst chiplets with two cores not working! Wow. They can serve 90% consumers with essentially their waste product. They are in remarkably good situation.
 
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Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
5,021
1,201
136
Yes. Why dont they do what I already suggested (and what they are probably planning anyway - Ryzen 3900 non X exists in official MB support list) :

They do not have problem producing 3600 in volume. Why dont they simply put one more chiplet in it and the problem is solved! 12 core with 4.2 GHz boost which cannot overclock
On the first its probably a backup solution for when sales start to wain on the higher end chips. If supply doesn't start matching demand it might never happen. But the idea probably is to offer cheaper 12 and 16c chips at a lower price, while still making the full margin on people wanting the X product performance to continue to sell these high margin configuration. Sell a 3900 for 400 and boom maybe 12c chips start selling in mass again.

On the second the problem is in the long run a 3600(x) will outsell a 3900x on a greater then 2:1 ratio. While they can be more flexible then Intel in allotment of chiplets you have to be careful not to make problems worse by dedicating to much of your production to the high margin parts and not being prepaired when the demand drops out.

Just look at Nintendo with the Wii (and why they were even more careful with the switch). It took forever to catch up with Demand. They were being really cautious at first but for like 2 years there was almost no stock in stores. So they slowly opened new factories expanded shifts hired more people. But the demand was front loaded. Once the demand from the people who wanted it day 1 ish (but had to wait 2 years to get one), the sales almost instantly bottomed out. To top it off the Wii had mediocre but good accessory attach rates but terrible probably one of the worst ever game attach rates. The expanded production pretty much ate through all the money they made from the fantastically great sales they had for the unit.
 

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
5,658
1,647
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On the second the problem is in the long run a 3600(x) will outsell a 3900x on a greater then 2:1 ratio. While they can be more flexible then Intel in allotment of chiplets you have to be careful not to make problems worse by dedicating to much of your production to the high margin parts and not being prepaired when the demand drops out.
The 3600 will out sell the 3900X & 3950X by much more than 2:1.
 

chrisjames61

Senior member
Dec 31, 2013
364
144
116
AMD makes bad products that no ones wants to buy.
When AMD makes good products that every one wants to buy it can't actually fabricate the damn things to sell.

Cursed company.

Not exactly. They are selling evey cpu that they can manufacture so I would hardly say that is cursed.
 
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DaaQ

Member
Dec 8, 2018
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When Intel has products that are never in stock it is always such high demand and sales.
When AMD has products that are never in stock it is always such poor production rates, low volume.

It's a never win situation.
 

chrisjames61

Senior member
Dec 31, 2013
364
144
116
When Intel has products that are never in stock it is always such high demand and sales.
When AMD has products that are never in stock it is always such poor production rates, low volume.

It's a never win situation.

Yes, but in this case we know that isn't the truth. They have had major design wins.
 

Panino Manino

Member
Jan 28, 2017
110
76
71
Yes, AMD can't meed the demand.
That's the curse.
AMD is selling everything they can actually make, so what? Every delayed shipment is a sales lost. Don't we agree that AMD needs to take the most from this moment? While they have the upper hand? Soon Intel will arrive and flood the market with a more competitive product.
 

maddie

Platinum Member
Jul 18, 2010
2,802
1,373
136
Yes, AMD can't meed the demand.
That's the curse.
AMD is selling everything they can actually make, so what? Every delayed shipment is a sales lost. Don't we agree that AMD needs to take the most from this moment? While they have the upper hand? Soon Intel will arrive and flood the market with a more competitive product.
For the gamer crowd.

Consider AMD as playing a game with a huge amount of lag. Any input now, is manifested down the line in ways that might be adverse to the then existing reality.
 

Markfw

CPU Moderator, VC&G Moderator, Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 16, 2002
18,586
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BTW, for those of you still looking for a 3900x, the link below may not be a great deal, but I think its better than many of those "way over MSRP" deals you see today. I mean I did not price it all out, but CPU+motherboard alone is $700 of the $1088. And a decent case and PSU ? is that $200 more ???? No hard drives though ? NVME or otherwise ???

Anyway, just a thought maybe worth linking for those who really want a 3900x now.

 
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Thunder 57

Senior member
Aug 19, 2007
910
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BTW, for those of you still looking for a 3900x, the link below may not be a great deal, but I think its better than many of those "way over MSRP" deals you see today. I mean I did not price it all out, but CPU+motherboard alone is $700 of the $1088. And a decent case and PSU ? is that $200 more ???? No hard drives though ? NVME or otherwise ???

Anyway, just a thought maybe worth linking for those who really want a 3900x now.

Looks like a decent deal, though the RAM is rather slow.


Antec Mid Tower ONE Gaming Case
Why does everything have to be gaming lol? And what makes a case "gaming"?

Also you get a quite fan, not a quiet one. Quite a fan of the quiet fan. :rolleyes:

They did give it a great power supply though, probably too much. So, there's that,
 
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Markfw

CPU Moderator, VC&G Moderator, Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 16, 2002
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Looks like a decent deal, though the RAM is rather slow.



Why does everything have to be gaming lol? And what makes a case "gaming"?

Also you get a quite fan, not a quiet one. Quite a fan of the quiet fan. :rolleyes:
aFTER i ADDED IT UP, ITS STILL AT LEAST $100 HIGHER THAN THE PARTS ALONE. aND WITH NO HARD DRIVE, YOU ARE NOT SAVING ON the OS (not typing all that again, dang caps)

But if you are desperate, its better than the $800 for the CPU alone at most places now.
 

Thunder 57

Senior member
Aug 19, 2007
910
569
136
aFTER i ADDED IT UP, ITS STILL AT LEAST $100 HIGHER THAN THE PARTS ALONE. aND WITH NO HARD DRIVE, YOU ARE NOT SAVING ON the OS (not typing all that again, dang caps)

But if you are desperate, its better than the $800 for the CPU alone at most places now.
.
Damn caps lock will get ya. I didn't price it out, but that RAM is super slow. And only 8GB? I just checked Newegg/Amazon. I am surprised it is that much. I used one of those stock checking websites to find an RX 480 back when the 1060/480 were super hard to get because of mining, and I ended up getting one for MSRP. Took a couple months though. I suggest that for any prospective buyers.
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
6,737
732
126
Newegg's site now says they aren't sure if the 3900X will be restocked. Strange stuff.
 

Markfw

CPU Moderator, VC&G Moderator, Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 16, 2002
18,586
5,895
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Newegg's site now says they aren't sure if the 3900X will be restocked. Strange stuff.
Well, for me, it says add to cart, but for $769 from memoryC, or for $1094 from PartsQuick

Or $800 and up from a wide variety at Amazon.

With all these you can buy (at way over MSRP) a bunch of these scalpers must have bought up all the supply when first introduced ! No wonder we can't get one for MSRP !
 
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Markfw

CPU Moderator, VC&G Moderator, Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 16, 2002
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Well, sometime today, newegg had it for $580, but its gone now.
 
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Kocicak

Member
Jan 17, 2019
156
109
76
AMD could already be producing the 3900 and 3900 PRO for system builders. Orders from these companies probably have priority over supplies to end customers.
 

Gideon

Senior member
Nov 27, 2007
521
570
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Well at least in Estonia, some are starting to appear:

The numbers on the right show the amount of processors currently in stock at different shops (physically on premise). 12+ 3900X in stock overall for a price of 599€ (which is actually quite decent markup, considering Estonia has a VAT of 20%, which is 100€ for 500€).

Considering it's one retailer in a tiny tiny country (since august i've only see 3 sold), it's looking like some are finally shipping.
 
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DooKey

Golden Member
Nov 9, 2005
1,487
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AMD makes bad products that no ones wants to buy.
When AMD makes good products that every one wants to buy it can't actually fabricate the damn things to sell.

Cursed company.
I wouldn't say they're cursed. They are still suffering from the double-edged sword of spinning off GF. They needed to do it because they were losing hand fist when GF couldn't produce a decent process for their CPU's. On the other hand they are now fabless and don't have to money to buy up wafers like their HUGE competitors at TSMC. I think things will level off eventually and AMD will be able to meet demand when they become more established compared to now.
 

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