Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

[Markfw]

I don't see them... yet... but from the photos you posted... there's room in your 'lab' to store in bulk 3900Xs until just the right selling moment. ;-)
Also... I'm teasing...

You know its pretty disgusting when you can;t sell 14 core CPUs for $200. And motherboards that support 4 core all the way up to 22 core with quad channel memory for $100.....

 

[intelati]

You know its pretty disgusting when you can;t sell 14 core CPUs for $200. And motherboards that support 4 core all the way up to 22 core with quad channel memory for $100.....

Wait, so where are those threads that we are talking about?

 

[Markfw]

Wait, so where are those threads that we are talking about?

FS/FT forum.

 

[intelati]

FS/FT forum.

*does more research*

Ahh. 25 posts...

 

[Atari2600]

The pipeline is likely filled with the 3950X's. I'd expect the 3900's to start showing up after the 3950 is released.

hahahaha

I'd say the pipeline is filled with chips destined for EYPC.

Why sell a part you get $200 profit on when you can get $1000 profit for the same part using a different sticker*?


*poetic license - obviously more than the sticker changes!

 

[scannall]

hahahaha

I'd say the pipeline is filled with chips destined for EYPC.

Why sell a part you get $200 profit on when you can get $1000 profit for the same part using a different sticker*?


*poetic license - obviously more than the sticker changes!

That's entirely possible as well. Perhaps the demand for Epyc is stronger than expected? Not sure where I'd look that up.

 

[DrMrLordX]

That's entirely possible as well. Perhaps the demand for Epyc is stronger than expected? Not sure where I'd look that up.

You can pay a lot of money to some research outfits to get a lot of speculation and hand-waving.

 

[Kenmitch]

I'd say the pipeline is filled with chips destined for EYPC.

Maybe so, but it's really about the chiplets quality in the end.

AMD Exec: TSMC Has Capacity To Meet EPYC Rome Demand | CRN

AMD exec Scott Aylor says TSMC has the capacity to meet demand for second-generation EPYC Rome.

www.crn.com

Maybe they'll be enough left overs to satisfy the rest of the market.

 

[CHADBOGA]

This is not good. AMD finally has winners, and now TSMC can't deliver enough chips.

Well it's not like AMD haven't had this problem in the past.

I wish I could remember who it was, when I claimed that if Ryzen 3000 series was going to cost what Adored said it would, AMD wouldn't be able to meet demand and this person claimed there was plenty of 7nm production capability.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Well it's not like AMD haven't had this problem in the past.

I wish I could remember who it was, when I claimed that if Ryzen 3000 series was going to cost what Adored said it would, AMD wouldn't be able to meet demand and this person claimed there was plenty of 7nm production capability.

At the time, there were downturns in the smartphone/tablet market, and TSMC wasn't reporting any shortages. Now TSMC is reporting shortages. I haven't noticed any major upticks in the smartphone market though. Kinda wondering how TSMC is having this problem?

 

[Kenmitch]

At the time, there were downturns in the smartphone/tablet market, and TSMC wasn't reporting any shortages. Now TSMC is reporting shortages. I haven't noticed any major upticks in the smartphone market though. Kinda wondering how TSMC is having this problem?

The following is from the article I linked a couple of posts up.

TSMC declined to comment on the Digitimes article, saying it doesn't comment on rumors or disclose the lead time for individual nodes.

Who's the industry sources that started the rumor is the real question.

 

[maddie]

At the time, there were downturns in the smartphone/tablet market, and TSMC wasn't reporting any shortages. Now TSMC is reporting shortages. I haven't noticed any major upticks in the smartphone market though. Kinda wondering how TSMC is having this problem?

Agreed.

This issue appeared over an extremely short period of time. Anyone transitioning to 7nm would have been in the process for an extremely long period of time allowing Tsmc to notify clients on what to expect. Anyone now starting off will not be ready anytime soon. By elimination, it appears (have?) to be increased orders from existing clients.

 

[Atari2600]

Who's the industry sources that started the rumor is the real question.

Intel plants wanting to spread FUD.

"Don't buy AMD - you'll end up getting half way through your deployment and they'll run out of CPUs"

Pretty pathetic stuff.

 

[NostaSeronx]

TSMC is nowhere near as bad as GlobalFoundries.

14LPP was suppose to achieve HVM in 2015, early 2016. GloFo got $10B to accelerate the ramp in 2014($5B~) and 2015($5B~). However, they only started in 2018/2019 to get less capacity constrained. A massive gap of three years to get to target capacity.

TSMC has two fabs doing 7nm, with massive capacity ramps before the 5nm Fab and 3nm Fab completions. This is nowhere close to GlobalFoundries response, TSMC's capacity drive is much higher than GloFo.

Samsung only has a single EUV 7nm line, GlobalFoundries had 1/5th a line planned for EUV. SMIC also only has planned a single 7nm EUV line sometime in 2022 or something. TSMC is literally the only one with four fabs with EUV planned on the table. Intel gets close with a couple fabs also planned; Oregon(2nd), Chandler(1st), Israel or Ireland(3rd/4th).

 

[moinmoin]

Now TSMC is reporting shortages. I haven't noticed any major upticks in the smartphone market though. Kinda wondering how TSMC is having this problem?

The just launched iPhone 11 line is using TSMC's 7nm again and is selling better than the previous iPhone X line on the same node. Apple is easily TSMC's biggest customer right now.

 

[Ajay]

The just launched iPhone 11 line is using TSMC's 7nm again and is selling better than the previous iPhone X line on the same node. Apple is easily TSMC's biggest customer right now.

And the only large customer willing to pay extra to guarantee that TSMC prioritizes their wafer orders. The demand for TSMC 7N has been huge according to the company’s own reporting. Great problem to have for TSMC, not great for their customers. That said, fabbing a high performance x86 cpu is a real feather inTSMC's cap and has them competing directly with Intel’s vaunted fabs.

 

[DisEnchantment]

My 3900X is on its way. Sadly Mindfactory.de shipped it with UPS standard and they dont deliver on Saturdays/Weekends.
After 72 days I will get the CPU

Anyway I also saw it is available from three other retailers starting from 700+ EUR
At Mindfactory.de it continues to be sold out.

 

[Markfw]

My 3900X is on its way. Sadly Mindfactory.de shipped it with UPS standard and they dont deliver on Saturdays/Weekends.
After 72 days I will get the CPU

Anyway I also saw it is available from three other retailers starting from 700+ EUR
At Mindfactory.de it continues to be sold out.

New has nothing at any price.ebay has several for $700 US buy-it-now, and others on bid.
Amazon has a lot at $750.
I just hope the 3950x comes out soon, or the 3000 series Threadrippers.

 

[thesmokingman]

Too bad you guys don't have Microcenters near you. My local one gets 10+ 3900x a week. They tend to sell out same day.

 

[Markfw]

Too bad you guys don't have Microcenters near you. My local one gets 10+ 3900x a week. They tend to sell out same day.

Do they sell for retail ? $500 ?

 

[fleshconsumed]

Do they sell for retail ? $500 ?

As a general rule Microcenter does not price gouge, they always sell at retail.

The only time I've seen them deviate from that rule is during miners craze, and even then it was essentially limiting video cards to one per customer and if you wanted to buy another card you'd have to pay triple for the second card and I can't fault them for that. Now that every place charges tax in my state I always check Microcenter if they have what I need because all else equal I'd rather buy from them to help them stay in business.

 

[DrMrLordX]

The just launched iPhone 11 line is using TSMC's 7nm again and is selling better than the previous iPhone X line on the same node. Apple is easily TSMC's biggest customer right now.

Hmmmm that may be it. Plus Qualcomm is pushing out the 8cx soon, as well as an 855 refresh I think?

My 3900X is on its way. Sadly Mindfactory.de shipped it with UPS standard and they dont deliver on Saturdays/Weekends.
After 72 days I will get the CPU

Whew I thought I had it bad. Glad you got yours.

 

[Kocicak]

After 72 days I will get the CPU

As we say in my country: Do not say "hop" before you jump! Somebody from UPS may be already grinding Cinebench with your CPU, having a good time!

 

[thesmokingman]

Do they sell for retail ? $500 ?

$499.99, and you get a $30-$50 discount depending on the MB, if you get a MB. The only stipulation is you can only buy 1-2 a month. And you can add an extended warranty, basically like Intel's overclocker thingy too.

 

[DisEnchantment]

Somebody from UPS may be already grinding Cinebench with your CPU, having a good time!

Now you are making me nervous. I have been tracking UPS packet every 3 hours.