Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

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Abwx

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2011
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Sold (or just accepted orders), but NOT DELIVERED! The number you see are not delivered CPUs! That is why I already wrote that it would be interesting to know the number of really delivered CPUs.
On the page you linked they state 2-4 working days for delivery....
 

Kocicak

Member
Jan 17, 2019
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Seriously, all I can see are just "incoming" numbers without knowing how many were actually delivered. Other thing you see are unfulfilled orders from customers in different stores.

Everything indicates that these processors are delivered by dozens, not thousands.
 

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
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Looks like AMD only made a few thousand 3900x's and mabe only a few hundred 3950x's are coming.
.
That sucks.
Mabe they didnt expect to sell that many or mabe it's the "**special**" binning?! They have been hard to buy since July 11th, you would think by now they would be flooding the market 6 weeks later.
All the big online retailers sell out as quickly as they come back into stock is the only issue in reality.

I can get one today if I wanted or needed one. All I have to do is make the trek down to Microcenter. The one in SoCal has been showing 10+ in stock for a week or so. Viewing there other stores it's not the only one that has stock. They probably got your " few thousand alone " in one shipment.
 

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
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I believe the opposite will happen, AMD will concentrate mainly on producing the 3950X CPUs.
They're different binned chiplets, it's not like they can sway one to the other....Well I guess they could take the 3950x worthy chiplets and neuter them to make 3900x's, but that won't happen.
 

Hitman928

Golden Member
Apr 15, 2012
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During their latest conference call AMD said that the Ryzen 3000 series has sold at a 3X higher rate than either the Ryzen 1000 or Ryzen 2000 series. It seems to be more of a demand problem than supply. The real question is how (or if) it is effecting the OEM and server markets. Most likely only a certain % is allocated to the retail market in order to make sure they meet the demand in the other markets that are far less tolerable of supply issues.
 
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Topweasel

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Oct 19, 2000
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They're different binned chiplets, it's not like they can sway one to the other....Well I guess they could take the 3950x worthy chiplets and neuter them to make 3900x's, but that won't happen.
Depends on how they do in market.

Rule of thumb is that in the desktop market the cheaper a CPU the larger the volume. Zen was so good production wise that not only were they taking good 1700-1800x chips and fusing them off for 6c chips and below but basically shrugged their shoulders when a few batches of R5's didn't actually get fused.

But that isn't what is really happening with Ryzen 3k, but that's because the 3900 actually comes out as a fantastic value compared to just about everything you can compare it to in almost every stat cept gaming against the 9900k and even that is nearing a draw. So the 3900x has a really inflated sales base compared to cheaper chips like the 3800x and maybe even the 3600. Does the 3950 carry that kind of value specially when compared to the 3900. My guess is the price bracket while still a value, is starting to really edge out of enthusiast desktop range, while a value it may not be enough to displace the 3900s value when you count the closer to perceived cost tiers.

So in theory AMD would be more likely to harvest 8c dies for a high margin part like the 3900 assuming they don't get enough dies to fit the bill. But besides not knowing the market for the 3950x, you have EPYC that is without a doubt going to sell in volume and the inverse applies to Datacenter CPU's unless a specific job needs the core speed or is prohibitively expensive when core count increases, the full core count dies will either go here unless power envelope is really outside the comfort-zone of EPYC. But even then they can save those for higher clock 32 core version. Plus there is always Thread ripper. Then there are the 3700 and 3800 products.

So unless yields are really really good. No you are right they won't nueter them but it probably has little to do with the 3950x.
 

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
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So unless yields are really really good. No you are right they won't nueter them but it probably has little to do with the 3950x.
No idea on yields. If they're too good wouldn't it make more sense dropping 3950x's price point to stimulate more demand. $749 isn't as enticing as $649 would be.
 

Topweasel

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Oct 19, 2000
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No idea on yields. If they're too good wouldn't it make more sense dropping 3950x's price point to stimulate more demand. $749 isn't as enticing as $649 would be.
Not really you don't want to compete with your own products. There is some middle ground coverage. Like a Low Power 3950 and 3900 (</=75w) for 699 and $450. Or something like that. I wasn't a huge fan of AMD selling the 3950x for so much but that cat is out of the bag, so the only reason to lower the price is A.) Intel is doing something that makes amd decide to drop the price, or B.) AMD is replacing or putting something higher then it on the stack. If we do see a Price drop it won't be till after TR3 drops.
 

Kocicak

Member
Jan 17, 2019
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They're different binned chiplets.
When I talked about preferring production of 3950X over the 3900X, I was talking about utilisation of production (assembly) line/s intended for production of two chiplet Ryzens, not about usage of chiplets.

In my opinion due to upcoming release of the 3950X, its production is preferred over the production of 3900X and depending on how the production goes, 3950X is going to be released. The release of 3950X can even be postponed until AMD builds up large enough stock, so that this short supply fiasco of 3900X does not happen again.
 
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Kenmitch

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Oct 10, 1999
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I was talking about utilisation of production (assembly) line/s intended for production of two chiplet Ryzens, not about usage of chiplets.
Ok. I don't have any idea of how the assembly line stuff goes. Wouldn't it be possible to produce both at the same time? Or are they more or less produced in runs of sku xxxx individually on one single assembly line?

Demand does not seem to be AMD's problem right now.
That would depend on who you asked. I'm going with demand is outpacing the shipments in route, while some silly guy(s) say it's a supply issue.

You don't think a last minute price drop before the launch of 3950x would sway more buyers towards it? It really is somewhat overpriced depending on how one looks at it. Everybody's got their threshold of pain when it comes to pricing.
 
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Kocicak

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Jan 17, 2019
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Ok. I don't have any idea of how the assembly line stuff goes.
Me neither. What is obvious that the assembly capacity is limited, they need to prioritize, and my guess is that the 3950X has now the priority. Thus the 3900X short supply can last longer, however availability of the new 3950W may be good - at least initially.
 
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UsandThem

Super Moderator
May 4, 2000
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Global Foundries has filed patent claims against TSMC (and others). I wonder if this will further constrain AMD CPU availability? While GF didn't list AMD in the claim, I'm sure it's not going to help AMD with their Ryzen2 production.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/globalfoundries-files-patent-lawsuits-tsmc,40240.html
GlobalFoundries (GF) today announced that it filed lawsuits against Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in the U.S. and Germany over the alleged infringement of 16 patents. The company said that it's looking to halt the import of processors made with the technologies and is seeking "significant damages from TSMC based on TSMC’s unlawful use of GF’s proprietary technology in its tens of billions of dollars of sales.
 
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Kenmitch

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Oct 10, 1999
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Me neither. What is obvious that the assembly capacity is limited, they need to prioritize, and my guess that the 3950X has now the priority. Thus the 3900X short supply can last longer, however availability of the new 3950W may be good - at least initially.
I picture it as they'd be able to produce both at the same time with the ability to sway percentages one way or another. I'd imagine the whole process is computer controlled and robotic with little human intervention.
 

Atari2600

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Nov 22, 2016
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Global Foundries has filed patent claims against TSMC (and others). I wonder if this will further constrain AMD CPU availability? While GF didn't list AMD in the claim, I'm sure it's not going to help AMD with their Ryzen2 production.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/globalfoundries-files-patent-lawsuits-tsmc,40240.html
I would think two three things:

1. TSMC will continue to produce regardless until the court orders otherwise.

2. This is likely a desperate play by GF investors to get TSMC to fork out for the patent rights* so they get some return on an otherwise very poor investment. *Could even be that they are looking to sell the fabs & rights and think this is a good way to start the takeover!

3. GF canned their 7nm process. Can you be a patent infringer if the infringed does not intend to have any competing product?
 

moinmoin

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Jun 1, 2017
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DisEnchantment

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Mar 3, 2017
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While I agree that they are not making enough of them, why do you pull numbers like that from nowhere?

Mindfactory alone has already sold over 2,230 in Germany. That's one site in one country (that doesn't sell outside of Germany) - there is no way they had more than a couple precent of the chips - this alone shows that they definitely must have made over 10K
. . . seriously? Did you see their last allocation? They had 2k+ going to multiple warehouses, and they arrived earlier in this month. They're all gone. And that's just one retail outlet.
I dont know if other warehouses in the EU have received a lot more than Germany, but at least at Mindfactory and Alternate they have not received more than 1.5K combined.

I ordered (with gold service option) from Mindfactory.de when the "sold" count was less than 1K around second week of July and I have never received it. I wrote to them an email and they said second week of Aug, then third week of Aug, then second week of Sep.
I also ordered a second one from Alternate for a friend and same story, they keep shifting the dates. Now it is September.
Sold does not mean delivered.

I also bought an Athlon 200GE thinking it is second Gen to check out my X570 board turns out it does not work just like my 1700X, I have not seen the BIOS of my X570 board :(

For a while when they were saying second week of Aug I started assembling, now after repeated delays I assembled everything in the case and stored the case back in its box and just put it in some corner.
I took out the XFX RX 5700XT which I planned to go with the R9 3900X and used it with my 1700X build. Turns out the 1700X is bottle necking my RX 5700XT, GPU usage is most of time around 60%

Additionaly I wanted to start setting my VM for a new project and I don't wanna do it on my 1700X because migrating big vmdisks is a pain, I have been postponing my project for a bit too.
I am quite unhappy with this delay. On the other hand it might be a good thing as I dont need to bother with the early problems like I had with my 1700X. I bought it on the first day of availability and got it a day later. BIOS issues, crashes, seg faults, corrupted VMs, took almost five months to stabilize. The delay might not be so bad after all.
 
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Gideon

Senior member
Nov 27, 2007
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I ordered (with gold service option) from Mindfactory.de when the "sold" count was less than 1K around second week of July and I have never received it. I wrote to them an email and they said second week of Aug, then third week of Aug, then second week of Sep.
I also ordered a second one from Alternate for a friend and same story, they keep shifting the dates. Now it is September.
Sold does not mean delivered.
That sucks :(

Probably it is pretty bad then. There were also none available in Estonia for forever (one of the reasons I bought a 3700X). For about a week there are 3 in stock for ... 699€ :p
 

Kocicak

Member
Jan 17, 2019
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I believe that quantities supplied in the USA may be proportionally to number of inhabitants (or orders) higher than in the rest of the world. In the Czech republic we have some in stock at only one retailer, ONLY for 624€ (VAT included). :)
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Ok. I don't have any idea of how the assembly line stuff goes. Wouldn't it be possible to produce both at the same time?
Probably. The chiplet dice are all the same. They just have some that are binned for 6c that they put in the 3600, 3600x, and 3900x. The 8c chiplets go in 3700x, 3800x, and future 3950x. Plus there's another group of chiplet dice that go for Rome. I'm assuming they all come off the same wafers though. How exactly they handle the binning, I don't know.

You don't think a last minute price drop before the launch of 3950x would sway more buyers towards it?
Sure, but why bother? If you're selling everything you can put on the market, why not just let it ride? Believe me, i'd love for them to drop 3950x prices by $100 (no, I'm not gonna buy one but still). I just don't see price drops in the face of staggering demand for product. There are people paying $650 for marked-up 3900x CPUs right now. Why set the MSRP for the 3950x to that level?

Global Foundries has filed patent claims against TSMC (and others). I wonder if this will further constrain AMD CPU availability? While GF didn't list AMD in the claim, I'm sure it's not going to help AMD with their Ryzen2 production.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/globalfoundries-files-patent-lawsuits-tsmc,40240.html
Depends on if or when the court files an injunction. TSMC is shipping an enormous number of dice into the United States and Germany in various different products, so I would assume the courts involved would weigh this fact before doing something so drastic.

2. This is likely a desperate play by GF investors to get TSMC to fork out for the patent rights* so they get some return on an otherwise very poor investment. *Could even be that they are looking to sell the fabs & rights and think this is a good way to start the takeover!
The latter point here is probably close to the truth. And it may be in TSMC's best interest to pick up those fabs anyway. A buyout may wind up being more advantageous than a protracted court battle no matter how bogus GF's claims.

3. GF canned their 7nm process. Can you be a patent infringer if the infringed does not intend to have any competing product?
GF may not be filing claims related to a 7nm process (specifically).
 

maddie

Platinum Member
Jul 18, 2010
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Interestingly, I don't see AMD as a defendant. From article.


Here's a few snippets from the filing:

  • Defendants (20):
  • Foundry: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSMC)
  • Fabless chip designers: Apple, Broadcom, Mediatek, nVidia, Qualcomm, Xilinx
  • Electronic component distributors: Avnet/EBV, Digi-key, Mouser
  • Consumer product: Arista, ASUS, BLU, Cisco, Google, HiSense, Lenovo, Motorola, TCL, OnePlus
  • GF Patents in the cases (16): The technologies at issue relate to the advanced semiconductor devices and methods of manufacturing those devices. See table on next page for details.
  • Accused Infringing Technologies (5): TSMC 7nm, 10nm, 12nm, 16nm , 28nm
 

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