KMFJD
Lifer
- Aug 11, 2005
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more regional warlords like Kadyrov incoming
“Many of these people used to support Putin, they used to cheer for the war,” she said. “When it was from the safety of their homes and there was nothing at stake for them it was fine. But now they don’t want to support this by their actions.
“They don’t want to support it with their lives. They don’t want to go and fight and die in this war.”"
First part is the brain drain, but the second says they were OK with killing civilians as long as they weren't the ones getting shot at for killing civilians.
Going well is it Vlad?
"New arrivals in Istanbul described the situation in Russia as “rapidly deteriorating,” and many feared being trapped.
“If you stay, you may never be able to leave, and if you want to (leave) you better act fast,” she explained.
Likening the situation to the aftermath of Russia’s 1917 revolution, when hundreds of thousands of “white Russians” found refuge in Istanbul while fleeing the Bolsheviks, Rapoport said those fleeing felt they no longer had a future in their homeland."
Fleeing Russians follow path of 1917 refugees to Istanbul
Vladimir Putin’s military draft “changed everything” for the tens of thousands of Russians who have fled their country since the Russian leader’s mobilization was announced last month.apnews.com
But this is also interesting from earlier in the same article:
"While those who left Russia in the immediate aftermath of its February invasion of Ukraine were a “well-educated, Western-oriented, cosmopolitan crowd,” now her organization was seeing “just about everyone who can escape the country.”
“Many of these people used to support Putin, they used to cheer for the war,” she said. “When it was from the safety of their homes and there was nothing at stake for them it was fine. But now they don’t want to support this by their actions.
“They don’t want to support it with their lives. They don’t want to go and fight and die in this war.”"
First part is the brain drain, but the second says they were OK with killing civilians as long as they weren't the ones getting shot at for killing civilians.
Basically...it means the central goverment has run out of money to buy weapons and equipment/components to produce weapons (even though the regional goverments are probably in even worse state). Really old soviet era equipment aside it could soon leave them with only biomass and nukes.
As a question who is going to take down Putin & co if everybody who oppose them have left or are trying to flee Russia (so often its shown as a positive in western media, but actually its the opposite)?
Rapid movement in Kherson. Apparently the Russian army have been given permission to retreat to new defensive lines.
WTF is this even good for? I’m not aware of a carrier task force in the Black Sea. Do they expect to make a big wave and damage the shore? Is there even a tactical target along the coast somewhere?
What a shame. I was hoping the units would stay in place and Ukraine could pot a noose around them and slowly strangle the Russian army in Kherson.
I don’t watch Fox News and I certainly do not pay attention to entertainers like Tucker Carlson. I went over and looked at this one out of curiosity. It was more terrible than the descriptions above (other than the opening discussion on who - if anyone - attacked the natural gas pipelines).
TUCKER CARLSON: Nuclear war means the end of the world | Fox News
Fox News host Tucker Carlson voices his concerns over the use of nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and explains the horrific consequences.www.foxnews.com
Putin is now running into the 'Trump problem' where it is impossible for him to make credible commitments. Nobody trusts a single thing he/Russia say, so it's very hard to make a deal.I like how he doesn't even bother to mention that it is Russian war conduct that has made any peace in the near term impossible. Also that the Russians have routinely lied and broken successive agreements and can't really be trusted at any time besides when held at the muzzle of a gun.
Russian nukes work. It's the only thing Putin has going for him.How did he get to where he b ?
Every tactic he has tried has failed.
Worse, they are comming back at him.
The lack of supplies for conscripts is just another failure. RU has the cash but now the cubbards are bare because the military never contemplated such an overwhelming demand for logistical support over and above the massive stores they once ( thought they had) on hand.
Very soon his army in UKR will stand down, defeated ,
He has no international support of any significance .
Totally alone, facing the greatest powers the world has ever known in his own back yard, and
his sole leverage is a nuclear weapon which, being home made, may or may not work.
Finally, he will not surrender !
Have I got all that right ?
There are reasonable conclusions to this endgame one likely even now in motion, discernible just faintly on the horizon. This one is called The St Helena Gambit.
Putin is now running into the 'Trump problem' where it is impossible for him to make credible commitments. Nobody trusts a single thing he/Russia say, so it's very hard to make a deal.
A common position I have seen among Republicans.
That we must appease Russia's invasion for Genocide. So that we do not risk making Putin mad. After all, he has nukes. Heaven forbid we don't sacrifice people to a volcano or something.
So they get this idiotic idea that Russia's PR claims are real. That Russians just want something "fair". Let's pretend no one heard Russians repeatedly vowing Genocide for the totality of Ukraine. That they only intend to stop at the Polish / NATO border.
Any notion of ceasefire before Russia's defeat and loss of territory is just begging Russia to recommit to this violence once more. They were appeased in 2014. If they are appeased in 2022, they will come back for more. Russia is weak today, Ukraine must strike while it can. Securing Crimea would secure Ukraine's future by greatly reducing the encirclement Russia can employ for its next invasion.
The thought would be that Putin would be unlikely to survive such a defeat and you would make peace with his successor.If Russia got out of this conflict with only holding onto the Crimea and their army in ruin would you think Russia would be emboldened to try this again? Clearly the Russian military would be handily destroyed if they attempted any invasion against a NATO country considering what happened with their invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear risk in continued escalation that could end in mutual nuclear destruction.
I would love to see Ukraine push Russia out of all Ukraine territory including Crimea. Then what? What if Russia continues launching attacks from Russian territory? Does Ukraine invade Russia? Do the NATO country's invade with Ukraine to try and take Russian territory? How do we bring this war to a conclusion with escalating to a nuclear conflict? Russia has the ability to cause significant damage to the rest of the world if it wants with its nuclear strategic arsenal. We don't know how far we can push Russia before they consider that the best option. Regime change for Russia will have to come from within, the same for North Korea. A country with nuclear weapons cannot be beaten because once the risk of being beaten becomes to great the country will launch against it's enemies. They can be stopped from achieving certain goals or certain courses of action but never beaten with enemy tanks driving down the streets of it's capital. Nuclear weapons impose a limit on a conflict.
The thought would be that Putin would be unlikely to survive such a defeat and you would make peace with his successor.
If Russia got out of this conflict with only holding onto the Crimea and their army in ruin would you think Russia would be emboldened to try this again? Clearly the Russian military would be handily destroyed if they attempted any invasion against a NATO country considering what happened with their invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear risk in continued escalation that could end in mutual nuclear destruction.
@whyitso
more regional warlords like Kadyrov incoming
Thing about that.Russian nukes work. It's the only thing Putin has going for him.
The Ukrainians are not going to stop with just the Donbas. Their international partners have already made it clear Crimea is part of Ukraine.And endgame where Russia gives up Donbas, which they do not actually want, but keeps Crimea seems like the most likely outcome of the present conflict. There may not be any agreement that actually formalizes this but just basically the end state of the war.
What a shame. I was hoping the units would stay in place and Ukraine could pot a noose around them and slowly strangle the Russian army in Kherson.
IMO, the best case is pushing all of the Russians out of Ukraine and its neighbors become porcupine nations making it very unattractive for invasion. The world knows for sure so long as Putin is around Russia could get a hair in its ass and decide to invade its neighbors for whatever supposed reason of the day. So what else can you do beyond making sure you're the least attractive target in the region? You don't need to run faster than a bear, you just need to run faster than the person next to you. Change is going to need to come from within Russia itself, because going in and trying to do it yourself is just risking the annihilation of mankind. Gear up all its neighbors and get them trained.If Russia got out of this conflict with only holding onto the Crimea and their army in ruin would you think Russia would be emboldened to try this again? Clearly the Russian military would be handily destroyed if they attempted any invasion against a NATO country considering what happened with their invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear risk in continued escalation that could end in mutual nuclear destruction.
I would love to see Ukraine push Russia out of all Ukraine territory including Crimea. Then what? What if Russia continues launching attacks from Russian territory? Does Ukraine invade Russia? Do the NATO country's invade with Ukraine to try and take Russian territory? How do we bring this war to a conclusion with escalating to a nuclear conflict? Russia has the ability to cause significant damage to the rest of the world if it wants with its nuclear strategic arsenal. We don't know how far we can push Russia before they consider that the best option. Regime change for Russia will have to come from within, the same for North Korea. A country with nuclear weapons cannot be beaten because once the risk of being beaten becomes to great the country will launch against it's enemies. They can be stopped from achieving certain goals or certain courses of action but never beaten with enemy tanks driving down the streets of it's capital. Nuclear weapons impose a limit on a conflict.
The Ukrainians are not going to stop with just the Donbas. Their international partners have already made it clear Crimea is part of Ukraine.
Ukraine is going to go all the way.