Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
13,599
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Russian sources and Ukrainian videos seems to mostly agree this is what the northern part of the Kherson front looks like now. Russians have some decisions to make and soon.


Looks like a lot of Russian troops will need to swim across the river to relative safety or learn how to do that really quick. I wonder how cold the water is right about now and let's hope the Russians will keep donating their heavy equip't to the Ukrainians so generously as they have been.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
42,375
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Could get another spate of shoot downs if the Russians actually get their stuff in the air to defend Kherson since it is quite clear the Ukrainians advance with extensive cover of MANPADS and various mobile short range systems (9K33 OSA, Gepards, etc).
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
23,607
25,358
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Haha, since when can a Su-25 not fly in the rain? I guess they're dealing with one of those freak (and invisible) white squalls, like what rrrreally got the Moskva. Damn that Crimean weather, it's like the Aleutians over there.

Sounds like Russian pilots don't want to get shot down for Putin or his conscripts, though that probably doesn't sound as good over the phone to people getting blown apart and riddled with holes.

"Yeah sorry guys, this rain is quite the blyat."
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
35,252
6,802
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Collisions are not always fatal:

This is a US Submarine ( USS San Francisco ) after colliding with an undersea mountain in 2005 at near 30 Knots. Of course we build ours much better than the Russians. She recovered and traveled back to Guam on her own power. And only one fatality.


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Damn, How does a modern submarine run into a mountain? Don't they have systems to detect a mountain before plowing into it? :rolleyes: :oops::eek:
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
31,852
5,880
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Difficult as it is to find, in the face of the rising Iron Curtain, there remains some humanity in Russia. Men of honor who dare to speak the truth.
Not just of the losses, but of opposition to the war. Suppose he'll fall out of a window soon.

‘We Cannot Win’: Russia’s Military Veterans Opposing The Ukraine War
“We [veterans] all talk and discuss what is going on,” said Nikolai Prokudin, a 61-year-old veteran of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan who opposes the war in Ukraine.
“There are people with views identical to mine, others are less radical… But most people are fooled by the propaganda,” he told The Moscow Times.
...
One reason why Gulyaev feels so strongly about the Ukraine war is because a Soviet soldier from Ukraine saved his life in Afghanistan. That man’s son, a soldier in the Ukrainian army, was killed in 2014 in a battle with Russia-backed separatists.
“A soldier who got me out of a very serious situation on a road in Afghanistan. His son died while defending Donetsk airport… His only son,” Gulyaev told The Moscow Times.
Gulyaev learned of the tragedy during a 2016 reunion of Afghan war veterans, which was held in Belarus.
“You could feel the chill and it was clear there was a lot of resentment toward what Russia has done with Crimea and Donbas… I realized that we are sitting together but my country killed his son,” he said.
 
Jan 25, 2011
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They most likely are using a mark 1 eyeball to acquire targets.

They would not be able to see anything in the rain, so they would be ineffective.
I'd wager it's more about not controlling the air space in any way. They have to fly low and fast to avoid most air defense systems. They can't do that with low ceilings and rain.
 
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Leeea

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2020
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Damn, How does a modern submarine run into a mountain? Don't they have systems to detect a mountain before plowing into it? :rolleyes: :oops::eek:
Systems that detect mountains also broadcast the location of the submarine.

This is contrary to the submarines primary defense, stealth.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
35,252
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Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee admits that Russia desperately needs to stop and regroup

Well, I just saw something that... makes me question coexistence with Russia.
No, not on the battlefield. Nor the horrors of torture, rape, and genocide occurring throughout Ukraine.
What struck me is their public speech.

Do not focus on his criticisms of their process. Realize what their stated goal, purpose, and resolve is.
It is their intended purpose to use the entirety of Russia's existence... all its strength and all its resources... to work... for years into the future... to ensure Ukraine does not exist.
Russia vows to only live for the sole purpose of committing genocide.

My blood is boiling.
I do not fathom how we walk back from this. In defeat, will they find humility?
It's clear that sanity is in short supply in Russia. Very short. This asshole purports to outline Russia's way forward, also emphasizes that censorship is fundamental in it. I'd call him a super-prick.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
23,607
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Damn, How does a modern submarine run into a mountain? Don't they have systems to detect a mountain before plowing into it? :rolleyes: :oops::eek:
Undersea mountains don't make a lot of noise, in places where survey data ain't that great sometimes they can sneak right up on ya. Ha.

I remember that being in the news. 30 god damn knots. That is really a testament to American sub design, also HY100.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
23,607
25,358
136
They most likely are using a mark 1 eyeball to acquire targets.

They would not be able to see anything in the rain, so they would be ineffective.
I guess it depends on the rain, I think I just really doubt the weather in Crimea is both bad and identical to much further inland. I checked the weather for the areas in question, 100% cloud cover yeah but sporadic and short periods of light rain. But yes, no fun infrared or mm wave radar toys for the guys taping civilian GPS units to their instrument panels, shocking I know. It would seem the SOLT-25 upgrade that gets them into that club is either not present, or like so much else in the Russian inventory, works like crap. I'm willing to bet Ukraine being saturated with MANPADS figures into it as much or more than the weather though.
 
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WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
28,925
6,136
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Collisions are not always fatal:

This is a US Submarine ( USS San Francisco ) after colliding with an undersea mountain in 2005 at near 30 Knots. Of course we build ours much better than the Russians. She recovered and traveled back to Guam on her own power. And only one fatality.


View attachment 68601
Imagine the state of the toilets when that got back to port!
 
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uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,360
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Is something like laser range finders not applicable underwater?
Light doesnt travel too well in water, couple hundred meters at best:
 
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Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,550
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they could always choose to shoot their commanders and maybe the bus drivers carrying them to their graves.

....or are the conscripts not given ammo because of this fear from command?
As usual in such circumstances, rebellion is an act dangerously close to suicide, and choosing to take the bus ride always leaves an option for survival.

Stack on the ability of people to be delusional and illogically optimistic about their abilities and chances, it leads to the result where people want to believe the higher chance of survival is just playing it out and hoping for good luck, even beyond when odds have shifted in favor of rebellion.

Lastly, you need that someone to be the first for others to follow, which is rather rare. Until then it's follow the leader over the cliff, but once it breaks, it may go very quickly.

Frantic months are ahead
 
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