Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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Maybe to take out a carrier? Not sure if the battle group would see one of those coming or able to stop it though.
It could put a serious hurt on a carrier battle group, I don't know if it could be intercepted or not. Probably with some luck, it's got to be noisy when running fast.

Of course, you may as well nuke a US city if you're gonna nuke a carrier battle group, you're going to get the same sort of reply.
 

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Diamond Member
Nov 17, 2019
7,860
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Going well is it Vlad?

"New arrivals in Istanbul described the situation in Russia as “rapidly deteriorating,” and many feared being trapped.

“If you stay, you may never be able to leave, and if you want to (leave) you better act fast,” she explained.

Likening the situation to the aftermath of Russia’s 1917 revolution, when hundreds of thousands of “white Russians” found refuge in Istanbul while fleeing the Bolsheviks, Rapoport said those fleeing felt they no longer had a future in their homeland."


But this is also interesting from earlier in the same article:

"While those who left Russia in the immediate aftermath of its February invasion of Ukraine were a “well-educated, Western-oriented, cosmopolitan crowd,” now her organization was seeing “just about everyone who can escape the country.”

“Many of these people used to support Putin, they used to cheer for the war,” she said. “When it was from the safety of their homes and there was nothing at stake for them it was fine. But now they don’t want to support this by their actions.

“They don’t want to support it with their lives. They don’t want to go and fight and die in this war.”"

First part is the brain drain, but the second says they were OK with killing civilians as long as they weren't the ones getting shot at for killing civilians.
 

lixlax

Member
Nov 6, 2014
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Basically...it means the central goverment has run out of money to buy weapons and equipment/components to produce weapons (even though the regional goverments are probably in even worse state). Really old soviet era equipment aside it could soon leave them with only biomass and nukes.

As a question who is going to take down Putin & co if everybody who oppose them have left or are trying to flee Russia (so often its shown as a positive in western media, but actually its the opposite)?
 
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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
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“Many of these people used to support Putin, they used to cheer for the war,” she said. “When it was from the safety of their homes and there was nothing at stake for them it was fine. But now they don’t want to support this by their actions.

“They don’t want to support it with their lives. They don’t want to go and fight and die in this war.”"

First part is the brain drain, but the second says they were OK with killing civilians as long as they weren't the ones getting shot at for killing civilians.
If true, then it says a lot about the general disrespect for the loss human life in the Russian culture.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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Going well is it Vlad?

"New arrivals in Istanbul described the situation in Russia as “rapidly deteriorating,” and many feared being trapped.

“If you stay, you may never be able to leave, and if you want to (leave) you better act fast,” she explained.

Likening the situation to the aftermath of Russia’s 1917 revolution, when hundreds of thousands of “white Russians” found refuge in Istanbul while fleeing the Bolsheviks, Rapoport said those fleeing felt they no longer had a future in their homeland."


But this is also interesting from earlier in the same article:

"While those who left Russia in the immediate aftermath of its February invasion of Ukraine were a “well-educated, Western-oriented, cosmopolitan crowd,” now her organization was seeing “just about everyone who can escape the country.”

“Many of these people used to support Putin, they used to cheer for the war,” she said. “When it was from the safety of their homes and there was nothing at stake for them it was fine. But now they don’t want to support this by their actions.

“They don’t want to support it with their lives. They don’t want to go and fight and die in this war.”"

First part is the brain drain, but the second says they were OK with killing civilians as long as they weren't the ones getting shot at for killing civilians.
I think Turkey should put them all on a boat and ship them straight towards Crimea
 

deustroop

Golden Member
Dec 12, 2010
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Basically...it means the central goverment has run out of money to buy weapons and equipment/components to produce weapons (even though the regional goverments are probably in even worse state). Really old soviet era equipment aside it could soon leave them with only biomass and nukes.

As a question who is going to take down Putin & co if everybody who oppose them have left or are trying to flee Russia (so often its shown as a positive in western media, but actually its the opposite)?
How did he get to where he b ?
Every tactic he has tried has failed.
Worse, they are comming back at him.
The lack of supplies for conscripts is just another failure. RU has the cash but now the cubbards are bare because the military never contemplated such an overwhelming demand for logistical support over and above the massive stores they once ( thought they had) on hand.
Very soon his army in UKR will stand down, defeated ,
He has no international support of any significance .
Totally alone, facing the greatest powers the world has ever known in his own back yard, and
his sole leverage is a nuclear weapon which, being home made, may or may not work.
Finally, he will not surrender !

Have I got all that right ?

There are reasonable conclusions to this endgame one likely even now in motion, discernible just faintly on the horizon. This one is called The St Helena Gambit.
 
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Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
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I don’t watch Fox News and I certainly do not pay attention to entertainers like Tucker Carlson. I went over and looked at this one out of curiosity. It was more terrible than the descriptions above (other than the opening discussion on who - if anyone - attacked the natural gas pipelines).

 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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Rapid movement in Kherson. Apparently the Russian army have been given permission to retreat to new defensive lines.
What a shame. I was hoping the units would stay in place and Ukraine could pot a noose around them and slowly strangle the Russian army in Kherson.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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WTF is this even good for? I’m not aware of a carrier task force in the Black Sea. Do they expect to make a big wave and damage the shore? Is there even a tactical target along the coast somewhere?
A carrier task force would just stay in the Eastern Mediterranean and launch strikes against any Russian units in the Black Sea. No reason to send a carrier into the Black Sea. No way would the Russians risk sending this submarine around Europe to be picked up by SOSUS and then trailed by a Virginia class attack submarine. Better to run these type of tests close to home near the Barents sea.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
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What a shame. I was hoping the units would stay in place and Ukraine could pot a noose around them and slowly strangle the Russian army in Kherson.
From what I've seen posted sounds like some of them started to withdraw on their own because it was clearly fucked. It's sometimes hard to discern the actual actions and intent of the Russian command when some amount of ass covering is always at work (saying you ordered a retreat when units had already started to bolt).
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
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I don’t watch Fox News and I certainly do not pay attention to entertainers like Tucker Carlson. I went over and looked at this one out of curiosity. It was more terrible than the descriptions above (other than the opening discussion on who - if anyone - attacked the natural gas pipelines).

I like how he doesn't even bother to mention that it is Russian war conduct that has made any peace in the near term impossible. Also that the Russians have routinely lied and broken successive agreements and can't really be trusted at any time besides when held at the muzzle of a gun.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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I like how he doesn't even bother to mention that it is Russian war conduct that has made any peace in the near term impossible. Also that the Russians have routinely lied and broken successive agreements and can't really be trusted at any time besides when held at the muzzle of a gun.
Putin is now running into the 'Trump problem' where it is impossible for him to make credible commitments. Nobody trusts a single thing he/Russia say, so it's very hard to make a deal.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
65,410
20,491
136
How did he get to where he b ?
Every tactic he has tried has failed.
Worse, they are comming back at him.
The lack of supplies for conscripts is just another failure. RU has the cash but now the cubbards are bare because the military never contemplated such an overwhelming demand for logistical support over and above the massive stores they once ( thought they had) on hand.
Very soon his army in UKR will stand down, defeated ,
He has no international support of any significance .
Totally alone, facing the greatest powers the world has ever known in his own back yard, and
his sole leverage is a nuclear weapon which, being home made, may or may not work.
Finally, he will not surrender !

Have I got all that right ?

There are reasonable conclusions to this endgame one likely even now in motion, discernible just faintly on the horizon. This one is called The St Helena Gambit.
Russian nukes work. It's the only thing Putin has going for him.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
41,917
23,272
136
Putin is now running into the 'Trump problem' where it is impossible for him to make credible commitments. Nobody trusts a single thing he/Russia say, so it's very hard to make a deal.
On any of the major issues yeah. Swapping POWs and agreeing not to sink neutral shipping in the Black Sea (where the Turks have you by the short hairs) are exceedingly low bars.
 
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Stokely

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Jun 5, 2017
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Propaganda combined with wanting to see only information that meets your beliefs works. A lot of Russians probably believe the horseshit about "we are defending ourselves" the same way a lot of Americans believed the "we are defending ourselves" that spewed from the GWB administration (it was easy to steer the bloodlust from 9/11 to whatever boogeyman they wanted.)

It's not limited to Russians, my wife is from China, still reads/watches a lot of Chinese news and she and all the other Chinese people I know here believe the shit Putin is saying because the Chinese news largely presents the news favorably toward Russia (and unfavorably toward Ukraine.)

Basically humans are ignorant easily-deluded plains apes despite all our tech, it's why social media is going to (IMO) wipe us out. It's the Krell mind machine from Forbidden Planet in reality, our ids are running rampant.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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A common position I have seen among Republicans.

That we must appease Russia's invasion for Genocide. So that we do not risk making Putin mad. After all, he has nukes. Heaven forbid we don't sacrifice people to a volcano or something.
So they get this idiotic idea that Russia's PR claims are real. That Russians just want something "fair". Let's pretend no one heard Russians repeatedly vowing Genocide for the totality of Ukraine. That they only intend to stop at the Polish / NATO border.

Any notion of ceasefire before Russia's defeat and loss of territory is just begging Russia to recommit to this violence once more. They were appeased in 2014. If they are appeased in 2022, they will come back for more. Russia is weak today, Ukraine must strike while it can. Securing Crimea would secure Ukraine's future by greatly reducing the encirclement Russia can employ for its next invasion.
If Russia got out of this conflict with only holding onto the Crimea and their army in ruin would you think Russia would be emboldened to try this again? Clearly the Russian military would be handily destroyed if they attempted any invasion against a NATO country considering what happened with their invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear risk in continued escalation that could end in mutual nuclear destruction.

I would love to see Ukraine push Russia out of all Ukraine territory including Crimea. Then what? What if Russia continues launching attacks from Russian territory? Does Ukraine invade Russia? Do the NATO country's invade with Ukraine to try and take Russian territory? How do we bring this war to a conclusion with escalating to a nuclear conflict? Russia has the ability to cause significant damage to the rest of the world if it wants with its nuclear strategic arsenal. We don't know how far we can push Russia before they consider that the best option. Regime change for Russia will have to come from within, the same for North Korea. A country with nuclear weapons cannot be beaten because once the risk of being beaten becomes to great the country will launch against it's enemies. They can be stopped from achieving certain goals or certain courses of action but never beaten with enemy tanks driving down the streets of it's capital. Nuclear weapons impose a limit on a conflict.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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If Russia got out of this conflict with only holding onto the Crimea and their army in ruin would you think Russia would be emboldened to try this again? Clearly the Russian military would be handily destroyed if they attempted any invasion against a NATO country considering what happened with their invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear risk in continued escalation that could end in mutual nuclear destruction.

I would love to see Ukraine push Russia out of all Ukraine territory including Crimea. Then what? What if Russia continues launching attacks from Russian territory? Does Ukraine invade Russia? Do the NATO country's invade with Ukraine to try and take Russian territory? How do we bring this war to a conclusion with escalating to a nuclear conflict? Russia has the ability to cause significant damage to the rest of the world if it wants with its nuclear strategic arsenal. We don't know how far we can push Russia before they consider that the best option. Regime change for Russia will have to come from within, the same for North Korea. A country with nuclear weapons cannot be beaten because once the risk of being beaten becomes to great the country will launch against it's enemies. They can be stopped from achieving certain goals or certain courses of action but never beaten with enemy tanks driving down the streets of it's capital. Nuclear weapons impose a limit on a conflict.
The thought would be that Putin would be unlikely to survive such a defeat and you would make peace with his successor.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
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If Russia got out of this conflict with only holding onto the Crimea and their army in ruin would you think Russia would be emboldened to try this again? Clearly the Russian military would be handily destroyed if they attempted any invasion against a NATO country considering what happened with their invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear risk in continued escalation that could end in mutual nuclear destruction.
If there is one thing you can count on is that eventually Russia will try to invade its neighbors again. It's just a question of time.

And endgame where Russia gives up Donbas, which they do not actually want, but keeps Crimea seems like the most likely outcome of the present conflict. There may not be any agreement that actually formalizes this but just basically the end state of the war.
 

Leeea

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2020
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@whyitso
Remember what we said about this war destroying Russia? This is how this war is going to destroy Russia. By Putin's degree. The warlords are not just going to hand their power back when it is over. Why would they? Them and their population will be totally ok with having their own country not named Russia.


Russian nukes work. It's the only thing Putin has going for him.
Thing about that.


We have seen corruption so bad in the Russian military they were not even able to make uniforms for the soldiers.

With secret projects, corruption is so much easier. Odds are the corruption problem is 20x worse in the nuclear forces.


Do Russian nukes even work? Nobody even tests them. Imagine how much $ you could make supplying warheads that do not have any nuclear material in them. So much cheaper then all those centrifuges that have not had any maintenance since the soviet era.
 

Leeea

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Apr 3, 2020
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And endgame where Russia gives up Donbas, which they do not actually want, but keeps Crimea seems like the most likely outcome of the present conflict. There may not be any agreement that actually formalizes this but just basically the end state of the war.
The Ukrainians are not going to stop with just the Donbas. Their international partners have already made it clear Crimea is part of Ukraine.

Ukraine is going to go all the way.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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What a shame. I was hoping the units would stay in place and Ukraine could pot a noose around them and slowly strangle the Russian army in Kherson.
You misunderstand.
Russians are falling back closer towards Kherson city. Their bridgehead is shrinking rapidly.
This does not mean they are authorized to fall back past the city and onto the safer side of the Dnieper river.
We still have time to... catch... a bunch of them.
 
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