Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Zor Prime

Senior member
Nov 7, 1999
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If Russia got out of this conflict with only holding onto the Crimea and their army in ruin would you think Russia would be emboldened to try this again? Clearly the Russian military would be handily destroyed if they attempted any invasion against a NATO country considering what happened with their invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear risk in continued escalation that could end in mutual nuclear destruction.

I would love to see Ukraine push Russia out of all Ukraine territory including Crimea. Then what? What if Russia continues launching attacks from Russian territory? Does Ukraine invade Russia? Do the NATO country's invade with Ukraine to try and take Russian territory? How do we bring this war to a conclusion with escalating to a nuclear conflict? Russia has the ability to cause significant damage to the rest of the world if it wants with its nuclear strategic arsenal. We don't know how far we can push Russia before they consider that the best option. Regime change for Russia will have to come from within, the same for North Korea. A country with nuclear weapons cannot be beaten because once the risk of being beaten becomes to great the country will launch against it's enemies. They can be stopped from achieving certain goals or certain courses of action but never beaten with enemy tanks driving down the streets of it's capital. Nuclear weapons impose a limit on a conflict.
IMO, the best case is pushing all of the Russians out of Ukraine and its neighbors become porcupine nations making it very unattractive for invasion. The world knows for sure so long as Putin is around Russia could get a hair in its ass and decide to invade its neighbors for whatever supposed reason of the day. So what else can you do beyond making sure you're the least attractive target in the region? You don't need to run faster than a bear, you just need to run faster than the person next to you. Change is going to need to come from within Russia itself, because going in and trying to do it yourself is just risking the annihilation of mankind. Gear up all its neighbors and get them trained.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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If the Ukrainians can reach the Inhulez and Dnieper river connection... that will be 2/3rds of the Russian bridgehead lost. It will put Kherson under Ukrainian fire control. It will give Ukraine control / fire control over all remaining bridges. If Ukraine can reach the Inhulez... the outcome of this battle will already be decided.

Here's hoping Russian despair plays out. Holding at Inhulez is a death trap for them.

Igor Girkin on the situation in Kherson: ...new defence line to protect Berislav/ Nova Kachovka dam... I' am sceptical about this. IMO Inhulez river is the new defence line.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
42,375
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The Ukrainians are not going to stop with just the Donbas. Their international partners have already made it clear Crimea is part of Ukraine.

Ukraine is going to go all the way.
It will never be recognized as Russian territory by the international community but it is unlikely the Ukrainians could dislodge the Russians if they decided to stay.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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It will never be recognized as Russian territory by the international community but it is unlikely the Ukrainians could dislodge the Russians if they decided to stay.
In Crimea?
The current Ukrainian advance is placing the water supply to Crimea within Ukrainian hands.
If Ukraine can cut the land bridge and return to Feb 2022 borders... then the Kerch Bridge is lost, Crimea is lost.
It was only PEACE that allowed Russia to keep Crimea. This violence they started allows the sort of action that Crimea cannot withstand.
 
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deustroop

Golden Member
Dec 12, 2010
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The Ukrainians are not going to stop with just the Donbas. Their international partners have already made it clear Crimea is part of Ukraine.

Ukraine is going to go all the way.
All the way where exactly ? You suppose taking Crimea is a satisfactory conclusion point ? You are forgetting the most important element to international affairs involved here. Stopping at Crimea leaves Pukin back home and worry free. There should be no cessation of the war until at the least Pukin is either delivered to the ICC or to another appropriate forum for his readjustment, like a good old Soviet firing squad.
Here it is--read my lips--without the RU army delivering him to UKR in chains, there will be no justice in stopping short of the gates of Moscow . Nobody has got their mind around this.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
42,375
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In Crimea?
The current Ukrainian advance is placing the water supply to Crimea within Ukrainian hands.
If Ukraine can cut the land bridge and return to Feb 2022 borders... then the Kerch Bridge is lost, Crimea is lost.
It was only PEACE that allowed Russia to keep Crimea. This violence they started allows the sort of action that Crimea cannot withstand.
Taking out the Kerch bridge would collapse the Russian war effort in the south, likely not majorly disrupt the defense of Crimea itself. Even with Russia's limited sealift capability they should be able to sufficiently supply defenses on the peninsula.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
31,852
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All the way where exactly ? You suppose taking Crimea is a satisfactory conclusion point ? You are forgetting the most important element to international affairs involved here. Stopping at Crimea leaves Pukin back home and worry free. There should be no cessation of the war until at the least Pukin is either delivered to the ICC or to another appropriate forum for his readjustment, like a good old Soviet firing squad.
Here it is--read my lips--without the RU army delivering him to UKR in chains, there will be no justice in stopping short of the gates of Moscow . Nobody has got their mind around this.
Justice would be the complete invasion and destruction of Russia.
But we are talking about a nuclear country. Their survival cannot be put into question from outside forces.
We must not do that.

Making Ukraine whole again would be a big deal. Taking Crimea would secure Ukraine's southern flank, and not allow the same encirclement that started this war.
It would be a huge strategic victory for dulling future conflicts.

Then, to assure Ukrainian hearts and minds... we work towards their ascension into Europe and NATO. We give them security guarantees in exchange for peace.
It is the only way forward for all parties involved. We cannot attack Russia the way you are suggesting.
 

KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
26,578
35,437
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from the preceeding tweet ~A Russian channel gives 3 reasons why Russian forces are retreating in Kherson: 1) A lack of rotation/exhaustion (he mentions the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade) 2) Because of a lack of infantry, Russian forces stay in strongpoints in towns. Ukrainian forces push between them.

interesting account of what's happening in northern Kherson, Russian's are retreating due to exhaustion and lack of infantry.
 
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brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
23,543
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from the preceeding tweet ~A Russian channel gives 3 reasons why Russian forces are retreating in Kherson: 1) A lack of rotation/exhaustion (he mentions the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade) 2) Because of a lack of infantry, Russian forces stay in strongpoints in towns. Ukrainian forces push between them.

interesting account of what's happening in northern Kherson, Russian's are retreating due to exhaustion and lack of infantry.
Hence Putin's push for more meat bags in the line. But shitty infantry will still get steamrolled.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
42,375
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Seeing a lot of wildly different explanations for Ukrainian success from Russian sources. One claimed that Ukrainian tanks attacked at night which is unprecedented...lol.

Might have to wait for a bit to see more clearly. One thing for sure is the Russians still have an acute manpower shortage that shows no signs of improving.
 
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Lost_in_the_HTTP

Diamond Member
Nov 17, 2019
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Would Vlad The Second capitulate and seek and end to this? Or would it be vengeance personified and all out retaliation?
 

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Diamond Member
Nov 17, 2019
8,329
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Going beyond pre '14 borders is not acceptable at this point. We can only hope that pushing back TO that point is so humiliating that it brings Vlad down. Then what?

Is there a chance the Georgia and others act? Is there any possibility that THEY would look to NATO?
 
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pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
20,060
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Damn, How does a modern submarine run into a mountain? Don't they have systems to detect a mountain before plowing into it? :rolleyes: :oops::eek:

Yes it would be Sonar, but sneaking around you don't want to be broadcasting your location for all to hear.

Other than testing the sonar I can only remember using the sonar in active mode maybe a few dozen times in 20 years.

Generally we have excellent mapping that shows these underwater mountains and it works very well as the lack of Submarine crashes annually.

Safer than driving a car.
 
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Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
55,283
12,021
146
I want to remind everyone of exactly WHY Russia is a criminal state (more than just the obvious).

--And why the US and UK are committed to defending Ukraine if Russia uses nuclear weapons.


On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Britain, and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. The four parties signed the memorandum, containing a preamble and six paragraphs. The memorandum reads as follows:

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.

Confirm the following:

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.​
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.​
3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.​
4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.​
5. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State.​
6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.​

— Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

 

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
20,060
3,482
126
Undersea mountains don't make a lot of noise, in places where survey data ain't that great sometimes they can sneak right up on ya. Ha.

I remember that being in the news. 30 god damn knots. That is really a testament to American sub design, also HY100.

** HY-80 and the Sub-Safe program.

** HY100 was not in use during the construction of the USS San Francisco. The keel was laid in 1977 and commissioned 24 April 1981.

And First and Formost a highly trained crew that knows how to operate a Submarine under extreme and deadly conditions.
 
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Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
From a Ny Times article I read today about cleaning up after the Lyman victory (lots of dead bodies):


Weary and dirty, the tank crew showed little concern for the Russian bodies, but seemed tense and angry from their recent battles. They had been fighting for 51 days without a break and were still wearing their summer uniforms, said one of them, who gave his code name as Positiv.
“We liberated four villages and planted the Ukrainian flag, but other units took the credit,” he said. “So many of our soldiers died,” he added. “So many young guys, 20-year-olds. So many.””

This has not been an easy victory and Ukrainian troops are getting tired.

For the benefit of the rest of us, please include a LINK to your article quotes.

Perknose
Forum Director
 
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