Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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bairon

Junior Member
Feb 22, 2022
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I dont know where the red line is. How many people have to be killed like. But Putin is testing it. I think next week he will cross it and US will be there next week. I also think he would pull back if they came instead of going nuclear. At least at first. He should be warned by now that the US will come. I dont know if he can do anything from far away Russia to US easily and I cant see him trying. In the end they will come I am sure of it. The US are just delaying till more are killed. If he wants a nuclear war he will have it there is nothing to stop him. It is about time we found out. I am sure he knows himself and has already decided. He wont decide on the spur of the moment.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,577
8,031
136
I really can't see him launching a nuclear strike on Poland. But there does seem to be a sliding scale, probably starting with unrestrained conventional attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine, maybe those fuel-air bombs, and maybe escalating to skirmishes with NATO forces in some way or even conventional weapons fired into a NATO member state (plausibly-denied as accidental/mistakes).

Though the latter seems like a definitive red-line, as does the use of nuclear weapons in any capacity.

A stray rocket landing somewhere over the polish border won't do it. If something hits a polish base or logistics area where Ukraine aid is being staged out of, guaranteed NATO response. There's too many member nations pre-deployed there for it not to be considered an action against NATO, not just Poland. Same with the Baltics. There's a rotating set of units in and out of there.

I'll add ... I think the situation in Ukraine could deteriorate (for Russia) to the point where Putin would see the basically unending flow of Javelins/Stinger/etc from Poland/Romania as something to strike at. Between that, the expanding civilian targeting going on in the major cities, and the potential for something stupid happening in the Black Sea, I don't see a scenario where this doesn't expand ... soon. Caveat to that is something internal toppling Putin.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,532
9,907
136
Seriously? Then nads on this guy. Fuck him. Leave the sanctions on as long as he controls the government; either as himself or through a proxy. Just send the message that starting a war in Europe is the end of you.
We have to give something if he fully pulls out, but I agree, not back to 3 weeks ago and definitely not back to 2013.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,448
7,858
136
Bio
Thanks for that. Amazed this guy is still alive. He brings up a point which left me aghast when I read it a few days ago. ONLY 70% of Russian banks are under sanctions. WTF!! That's like saying I can’t use my credit cards, but my checkbook is still good :rolleyes:.


I feel bad for the Russian people; being terrorized for decades by the secret police and fed endless bullshit by state media. But if they want to live in a better world, they will have to be willing to shed their blood for it, as happened in the US, France and so many other countries. That, or they can still be led by psychotic murderers and plunderers of Russian wealth.
 

tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,531
6,963
136
Interesting article from 2 years ago:

As an edit: Did I forget to mention I LOVE the A-10? I've been "strafed" four times by Warthogs....a glorious experience every time! Knew a couple of Warthog pilots back in the late 1970's. Absolutely love the plane!


Reminds me of how the DOD deciders decided to ditch guns from the F4 Phantom II because a "new era" was created when missiles were so advanced there was no need for classic close-in dogfighting. I recall how gun pods were later hung under the F4's that was a tacit admission their thinking was wrong to the point where F4 pilots were losing their lives to MIGs because they had no guns to defend themselves with.

Add to that the gun pods weren't well thought out as I recall how a design flaw had the gatling barrels wobble badly when firing to the point where F4 fuselages ahead of the pods were being hit by errant rounds.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,532
9,907
136
Reminds me of how the DOD deciders decided to ditch guns from the F4 Phantom II because a "new era" was created when missiles were so advanced there was no need for classic close-in dogfighting. I recall how gun pods were later hung under the F4's that was a tacit admission their thinking was wrong to the point where F4 pilots were losing their lives to MIGs because they had no guns to defend themselves with.

Add to that the gun pods weren't well thought out as I recall how a design flaw had the gatling barrels wobble badly when firing to the point where F4 fuselages ahead of the pods were being hit by errant rounds.
Really they should transfer the A-10s to the Army. USAF doesn't want that because the army isn't supposed to have fixed wing aircraft, but the USAF wants sexier equipment too.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,194
12,848
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Thanks for that. Amazed this guy is still alive. He brings up a point which left me aghast when I read it a few days ago. ONLY 70% of Russian banks are under sanctions. WTF!! That's like saying I can’t use my credit cards, but my checkbook is still good :rolleyes:.


I feel bad for the Russian people; being terrorized for decades by the secret police and fed endless bullshit by state media. But if they want to live in a better world, they will have to be willing to shed their blood for it, as happened in the US, France and so many other countries. That, or they can still be led by psychotic murderers and plunderers of Russian wealth.
But that is not how it works methinks.
Its sort of analog to that saying about a person can be smart but a group of people is dumb as a rock.
We can ask one person to be brave but once it becomes a numbers game, like with occupants of a country, I feel like its more efficient to look at it like I would a zoo. This is a flock of apes, given stimulus x y and z this is what the flock is gonna do. Sociology. And I think the conventional take on the Russian people is that Putins regime have had them in an iron grip gaslighting chamber for SO LONG that most of them wouldnt recognize freedom if it kicked them in the nethers.

I dont think that change will come from people rising up from within Russia. Modern weaponry media and technology means that the time of utilizing pitchforks as a means to overthrow the king is no more. And thats horrifying to think about.

edit : Trumps big lie. Imagine the uptake of that shit if Trump could shut down every other media but Fox, curb social media and "dominate the streets" with his Stasi police.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,006
47,967
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,438
7,504
136
I will be very interested to learn the reasons behind this someday. As far as I am aware the Russian air force was supposed to be massively quantitatively and qualitatively superior to that of Ukraine but they are not operating that way.

Look at their ground vehicles. Little to no maintenance.
They are probably scared the wings will fall off the aircraft.

Russia has a lot of bombs and a lot of men. But no leadership. No educated thinking. Conventionally, Russia is zero threat to NATO because our ready-state combined arms would slaughter them like Iraqis.