Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Puffnstuff]

Farmers enjoying the spoils of war.

 

[RnR_au]

what is the death toll thus far?

The Ukrainians are only releasing Russian and civilian losses as far as I understand. We don't know the scale of Ukrainian military losses at this point.

 

[Zorba]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498106694999711746

 

[JTsyo]

Someone said early on that the only thing Putin accomplished with this move was to unite the west.

Mother Fucker. Was that dude or gal right.

Putin bought himself a proxy war on his own front lawn, him vs. everyone else. (minus China).

Saw on DW that Germany will increase its defense budget by 100 billion Euros. In 2021 the whole defense budget was only 47 billion Euros. Putin made a huge miscalculation on how this would play out. He might have expect it to be as easy as how the Taliban rode into Kabul. Ukraine leadership though didn't flee the country.

 

[Jaskalas]

So 2/3'rds of Russias forces is committed to this now, they have readjusted to the unanticipated hard resistence, they've gotten reinforcement and moving forward in a position that is not blitz krieg. Putting big numbers against few.

Motherfucker I hope regular forces read this sign and get the fuck out the way... Here comes the time of the sniper, the guerilla warror.

It is the time for NATO weapons to bombard the roadways and the neatly arraigned columns of Russian military.

 

[Zorba]

Interesting read:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497583307504046087

 

[RnR_au]

Another ISW assessment summary for Feb 27.

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian military has likely recognized that its initial expectations that limited Russian attacks would cause the collapse of Ukrainian resistance have failed and is recalibrating accordingly. The Russian military is moving additional combat

www.understandingwar.org

 

[nickqt]

I hope Ukraine is able to maintain its Independence from Russia with a minimal loss of life. If Europe/NATO can continue providing the Ukrainians with military and financial supplies, and the rest of the world ostracizes Russia's government and prevents it from going on with Business-As-Usual, I think they can prevent the annexation of Ukraine.

I also feel that Russia is simply throwing its oldest equipment and least-trained soldiers at Ukraine to wear down Ukraine's defense and resource infrastructure. It's true that Russia's military is made up of conscripts and it's tech is not even remotely as advanced as the US, but so far it looks like a ham-fisted invasion attempt. Russia does have solid equipment and trained soldiers, so things feel "off" to me.

The Russians have mastered the Firehose of Falsehood propaganda method, and lulling Ukraine and The West into thinking Russia is incompetent at invading its next door neighbor for a week or two before just smashing the resistance isn't something I'd totally dismiss as a Russian tactic. That said, who knows what is going on behind the scenes in Russia itself. Are there commanders who are doing everything they can to keep themselves and their soldiers alive without outright disobeying orders? Is Putin having to watch his own back while he's also trying to wage a war of conquest?

I think the real contest here is whether or not Europe/NATO can supply Ukraine with enough resources to prevent Russia from long-term wearing down Ukraine's infrastructure and defense capabilities.

If Russia really is this terrible at rolling over a next door neighbor that it can, on paper, easily defeat, than this was an extremely terrible move on Putin's part. If it's just a tactic to create a fall sense of hope before smashing it, I wouldn't be totally surprised.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Interesting read:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497583307504046087

Another thing really important in this scenario: get them to use their supplies. I'm actually celebrating them bombing shit like schools, because it means they're less one rocket, and Ukraine gets a new school.

Freak them out. Get them to fire blindly at buildings, burn through hundreds of rounds on their side for every round you fire. Their supply lines are jacked up, push a finger in that wound.

 

[Roger Wilco]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497899370943029252

 

[akugami]

I heard similar to this some years ago, about the Chinese historical mistrust of foreigners and that it was formidable and explains a lot and can't be expected to change any time soon.

The Chinese have a lot to be admired for, and a lot to be criticized for. But by and large, the citizens just want to be happy.

I only bring up the Century of Humiliation because instead of saying "China is untrustworthy", look at why they are they way they are. What caused such attitude? And I think that understanding can lead to better peace. That's not to say we should condone bad behavior, but understanding it may lead to each of us being able to stand on common ground, and be able to work with one another in a peaceful manner.

i remember those days where Mao Zedong and his cadre branded the western democracies as "Arrogant Decadent Imperialist Hegemonistic Thugs" and pretty much scoffed at that. Looking back at those times, it seems to be an underlayment of the present day Chinese communists who have resisted the many western influences that are obvious in the present day Chinese culture.

Perhaps the Chinese government, but please don't take what the government does as the will of the people. As I've stated before, for the most part, the average Chinese citizen just wants what pretty much a citizen of any other country wants. A happy childhood, grow up and have a family, and some prosperity along the way.


Also if it's not clear, I am a US citizen, and while I sympathize with the Chinese citizens, ultimately my political alignment is with the US.

The US needs to provide a stronger response. Putin wants to restore the Russian Federation, but IMHO, this is not just about Ukraine. There is a bigger picture. China is letting Russia be the testing ground for US response should China decide to take over Taiwan. From a world economic standpoint, the Ukraine doesn't affect us all that much. Should China invade Taiwan, the impact to the world will be devastating.

As it stands right now, China loses nothing should Russia win or lose in their invasion of Ukraine. If anything, China stands to gain political ground whether Russia wins or loses. If Russia wins, it will be because the Europe and the US has not provided a stronger response to deter Russia. This will embolden China in its quest to reign in Taiwan. If Russia fails, then Russia will be ever more dependent on China. Win-Win for China.

 

[Leeea]

EU Pledges Fighter Jet Transfers to Ukraine | Aviation Week Network

The European Union has said it will provide fighter jets to Ukraine as part of a €450 million ($502.3 million) support package of lethal aid.

aviationweek.com

EU Pledges Fighter Jet Transfers to Ukraine

It is game over Russia. The only question now is how many Russians and Ukrainians have to die for Putin to realize that.

 

[IronWing]

Who will fly these jets?

 

[MrSquished]

Who will fly these jets?

This is what I'm wondering

 

[Dave_5k]

Who will fly these jets?

Speculation is they'll transfer the aging Mig-29's (from one of a few eastern European NATO countries that still have active wings), which Ukraine pilots are already quite familiar with.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Beautiful if not a bit chilling

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498077476190396416

Those weren't church bells. Zalensky walked to the kitchen for a snack and that was the sound of his massive balls clanging together.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

I hope Ukraine is able to maintain its Independence from Russia with a minimal loss of life. If Europe/NATO can continue providing the Ukrainians with military and financial supplies, and the rest of the world ostracizes Russia's government and prevents it from going on with Business-As-Usual, I think they can prevent the annexation of Ukraine.

I also feel that Russia is simply throwing its oldest equipment and least-trained soldiers at Ukraine to wear down Ukraine's defense and resource infrastructure. It's true that Russia's military is made up of conscripts and it's tech is not even remotely as advanced as the US, but so far it looks like a ham-fisted invasion attempt. Russia does have solid equipment and trained soldiers, so things feel "off" to me.

The Russians have mastered the Firehose of Falsehood propaganda method, and lulling Ukraine and The West into thinking Russia is incompetent at invading its next door neighbor for a week or two before just smashing the resistance isn't something I'd totally dismiss as a Russian tactic. That said, who knows what is going on behind the scenes in Russia itself. Are there commanders who are doing everything they can to keep themselves and their soldiers alive without outright disobeying orders? Is Putin having to watch his own back while he's also trying to wage a war of conquest?

I think the real contest here is whether or not Europe/NATO can supply Ukraine with enough resources to prevent Russia from long-term wearing down Ukraine's infrastructure and defense capabilities.

If Russia really is this terrible at rolling over a next door neighbor that it can, on paper, easily defeat, than this was an extremely terrible move on Putin's part. If it's just a tactic to create a fall sense of hope before smashing it, I wouldn't be totally surprised.

I mean, it's possible that Russia is playing 4D chess, but I don't put much stock in the idea that they're sending green recruits to their deaths to wear down Ukraine. Beyond it being terrible for morale, it doesn't look like that's what they're doing. The VDV paratroopers who failed to take an airfield day 1 were, presumably, not disposable, neither are the large amounts of Tigrs and BTRs they're losing by strolling piecemeal into an urban fight. Nor would it explain the logistics issues and armored vehicles running out of gas.

If anything, the delayed fight makes it worse for Russia. Ignoring the damage to their image, every day that passes is another day the Ukrainians have to dig in, fortify and get additional arms shipments. What's the point of throwing green trrops away if by the time your veterans are ready, the enemy's just dug in further and has more AT weapons?

There's still a high likelihood Russia ends up winning this, but if they do it's more likely to be because they realize they were being idiots and got their act together than it is because of a grand masterplan.

 

[NailBanger]

Anyone see the page to donate to Ukraine’s military?

NBU Opens Special Account to Raise Funds for Ukraine’s Armed Forces (updated)

The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to open a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The central bank’s decision comes after the Ukrainian gove...

bank.gov.ua

I got married last weekend and we chose to do a charity donation in lieu of favors. It was going to go to WWF or similar wildlife fund but it’s going to them instead. No better wedding gift than the unexpected end of Putin’s regime if it comes to that.

Thanks for that. Just donated $500

 

[Roger Wilco]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498066556240211978

 

[gothuevos]

I hope Ukraine is able to maintain its Independence from Russia with a minimal loss of life. If Europe/NATO can continue providing the Ukrainians with military and financial supplies, and the rest of the world ostracizes Russia's government and prevents it from going on with Business-As-Usual, I think they can prevent the annexation of Ukraine.

I also feel that Russia is simply throwing its oldest equipment and least-trained soldiers at Ukraine to wear down Ukraine's defense and resource infrastructure. It's true that Russia's military is made up of conscripts and it's tech is not even remotely as advanced as the US, but so far it looks like a ham-fisted invasion attempt. Russia does have solid equipment and trained soldiers, so things feel "off" to me.

The Russians have mastered the Firehose of Falsehood propaganda method, and lulling Ukraine and The West into thinking Russia is incompetent at invading its next door neighbor for a week or two before just smashing the resistance isn't something I'd totally dismiss as a Russian tactic. That said, who knows what is going on behind the scenes in Russia itself. Are there commanders who are doing everything they can to keep themselves and their soldiers alive without outright disobeying orders? Is Putin having to watch his own back while he's also trying to wage a war of conquest?

I think the real contest here is whether or not Europe/NATO can supply Ukraine with enough resources to prevent Russia from long-term wearing down Ukraine's infrastructure and defense capabilities.

If Russia really is this terrible at rolling over a next door neighbor that it can, on paper, easily defeat, than this was an extremely terrible move on Putin's part. If it's just a tactic to create a fall sense of hope before smashing it, I wouldn't be totally surprised.

This is my thoughts too.

Not downplaying the Ukrainians' bravery thus far, but it definitely feels like Russia is sandbagging it.

Although I don't know how Kyiv can withstand that incoming column of forces that are THREE MILES deep.

I just have a hard time seeing Putin not getting what he wants in this case.

 

[tweaker2]

Who will fly these jets?

Airframes could be sent in to be cannibalized for repair/maintenance. Not sure if any will be sent with the latest upgrades though. Also, after a brief search, it looks like there's a substantial number of pilots that left due to bureaucracy issues and how budget constraints have affected morale in the way of low pay, long hours shoveling paperwork and the low number of sorties being allowed for training. I can see them returning out of patriotism although what they'll be flying into battle remains pretty sketchy.

 

[MrSquished]

This is my thoughts too.

Not downplaying the Ukrainians' bravery thus far, but it definitely feels like Russia is sandbagging it.

Although I don't know how Kyiv can withstand that incoming column of forces that are THREE MILES deep.

I just have a hard time seeing Putin not getting what he wants in this case.

There is absolutely zero chance Russia planned for things to go badly so they can then smash the resistance later.

That's just ridiculous.

Any leader, especially a strongman like Putin, they expect to show instant and immediate domination and capitulation by the enemy. To think otherwise is insane.

Either they totally miscalculated or they just really aren't as up to snuff as they thought, and can correct course or not, but it in no way was done on purpose to lull anyone into a false sense of security.

Bonkers.

 

[pauldun170]

Speculation is they'll transfer the aging Mig-29's (from one of a few eastern European NATO countries that still have active wings), which Ukraine pilots are already quite familiar with.

Candidates would be Bulgaria (Su-25 and Mig-29s), Poland (Mig-29's) and Slovakia (Slightly less shitty Mig-29's)

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Although I don't know how Kyiv can withstand that incoming column of forces that are THREE MILES deep.

Let's hope it's a too many cooks in the kitchen situation. If the first few columns up front get taken out, then the ones that follow will have a much more difficult time having to maneuver around all the wreckage.

 

[pauldun170]

Airframes could be sent in to be cannibalized for repair/maintenance. Not sure if any will be sent with the latest upgrades though. Also, after a brief search, it looks like there's a substantial number of pilots that left due to bureaucracy issues and how budget constraints have affected morale in the way of low pay, long hours shoveling paperwork and the low number of sorties being allowed for training. I can see them returning out of patriotism although what they'll be flying into battle remains pretty sketchy.

If Slovakia donates theirs, they might have some upgrades.