Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[nickqt]

I mean, it's possible that Russia is playing 4D chess, but I don't put much stock in the idea that they're sending green recruits to their deaths to wear down Ukraine. Beyond it being terrible for morale, it doesn't look like that's what they're doing. The VDV paratroopers who failed to take an airfield day 1 were, presumably, not disposable, neither are the large amounts of Tigrs and BTRs they're losing by strolling piecemeal into an urban fight. Nor would it explain the logistics issues and armored vehicles running out of gas.

If anything, the delayed fight makes it worse for Russia. Ignoring the damage to their image, every day that passes is another day the Ukrainians have to dig in, fortify and get additional arms shipments. What's the point of throwing green trrops away if by the time your veterans are ready, the enemy's just dug in further and has more AT weapons?

I'm not saying that's the play Putin is making, but that it wouldn't surprise me if these first few days are just Putin throwing some trash at Ukraine to test the waters. And yes, him taking his time and allowing the EU/NATO/entire decent world to send supplies to Ukraine is definitely a mistake on his part.

My point is that Russia and Putin have a different set of geopolitical goals and tactics that the West wouldn't use...I mean, the whole annexation of land from its neighbors by itself shows that.

Russia has been taking pieces of Ukraine for close to a decade now, so it's not like Putin has shown that he wants to take every last bit ASAP. His immediate goal might be simply to cement his ownership of Crimea and Donbas while weakening Ukraine's ability to react to further annexation of eastern Ukraine, where this war is actually just a continuation of an existing war.

 

[akugami]

I think Europe will be doing that regardless. This is a wakeup call to the west in general that spending 1-1.5% of GDP on the military is insufficient. I lump Canada in there too if we have any intention of assisting our allies in a crisis.

Don't you be worrying about the good ol' US of A. We like our guns big, and our assholes bigger! 3%+ GDP on military spending. 'Murica!

 

[Roger Wilco]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498131725809065984

In P&N, you MUST include your own personal commentary in every post you make.

Perknose
Forum Director

 

[DisarmedDespot]

I'm not saying that's the play Putin is making, but that it wouldn't surprise me if these first few days are just Putin throwing some trash at Ukraine to test the waters. And yes, him taking his time and allowing the EU/NATO/entire decent world to send supplies to Ukraine is definitely a mistake on his part.

My point is that Russia and Putin have a different set of geopolitical goals and tactics that the West wouldn't use...I mean, the whole annexation of land from its neighbors by itself shows that.

Russia has been taking pieces of Ukraine for close to a decade now, so it's not like Putin has shown that he wants to take every last bit ASAP. His immediate goal might be simply to cement his ownership of Crimea and Donbas while weakening Ukraine's ability to react to further annexation of eastern Ukraine, where this war is actually just a continuation of an existing war.

I completely agree his thinking and tactics are gonna be different from the west's, and I also agree that now he'll probably be ok if he just takes a chunk out of Ukraine this time.

But, that doesn't look like it was his intent. It looks like those rushed paradrops and stupid piecemeal pushes into Kyiv were honest (but incompetent) attempts to try and decapitate the Ukraine government. The southern front is basically an afterthought and doesn't seem focused on encircling the Ukrainian troops on the Donbass or Luhansk fronts, which would be a main focus if gaining those regions was his main goal. I can very well be (and probably am) wrong, but this genuinely looks like he expected Ukraine to fold quickly and his army to overrun most of the country.

 

[BoomerD]

It is the time for NATO weapons to bombard the roadways and the neatly arraigned columns of Russian military.

NATO needs to stay the fuck out of this...unless Russia/Belarus decide to attack a NATO country. Sit on the sidelines, be prepared...do nothing unless they have to.

 

[RnR_au]

The Russians have mastered the Firehose of Falsehood propaganda method, and lulling Ukraine and The West into thinking Russia is incompetent at invading its next door neighbor for a week or two before just smashing the resistance isn't something I'd totally dismiss as a Russian tactic.

A couple of things;

1) Financial: this war is costing Putin something like $20bil a day to run. He really wants it over and done with asap.

2) Foreign relations: the older this war is, the bigger and more organised the anti-Russian coalition becomes. How organised? Russia can't get Western/Japanese/Taiwanese made cpu's anymore. Both Intel and AMD have cancelled cpu deliveries. This is possibly worse than the Swift action in the long term. So many industrial items needs cpus. Russia will be reliant on China for the foreseeable future.

3) Security: Sweden/Finland and Balkan nations are now seriously thinking about joining NATO. Germany is spending additional huge sums in boosting its military. So is Poland. This prolonged war is not making Russia any safer from NATO.

4) Reputation: A zero trust model will be foremost in the world diplomat's minds from now on in regards to any promises and/or statements made by Russia. Russia has burned what little political capital it had. Some nations and leaders that were notionally in Putin's orbit have backed away. Its military reputation is in tatters.

5) Domestic fallout: Several Russian MP's have spoken out about this war claiming that the vote was not for a war. Domestically it is so bad that Russia switched off twitter. The sheer volume of media coming from Ukraine via twitter was too much for Putin. In previous wars Russian state tv was filled with HD drone footage with the brave Russians fighting the evil enemies. Now its mostly silent except for token propaganda pieces. Russian citizens keep turning up to demonstrations. 2000+ got arrested yesterday.

So no. This long war is not a Russian tactic. Its a good example of piss poor planning, group think at the Kremlin, and extremely poor intelligence about the expected bravery exhibited by the Ukrainian PM.

 

[Zorba]

Personal commentary: This is really going to upset the trump humpers.

In P&N, each post must contain your personal commentary.

Perknose
Forum Director

 

[Zorba]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498131725809065984

How are "we" actually getting all this stuff in? I assume we aren't just loading up a C-130 and dropping it off a Kyiv International Airport.

 

[Dave_5k]

This is my thoughts too.

Not downplaying the Ukrainians' bravery thus far, but it definitely feels like Russia is sandbagging it.

Although I don't know how Kyiv can withstand that incoming column of forces that are THREE MILES deep.

I just have a hard time seeing Putin not getting what he wants in this case.

Best analysis I've seen suggests that Russia wasn't sandbagging it, but rather a combination of corruption and lack of clarity of mission plus a visible lack of coordination between branches.

And primarily a lack of preparing a supply chain in advance (now being hastily rectified, which will make things much tougher for Ukraine).

A wide range of issues:
1) First time ever that they've tried to deploy majority of complete battalion groups - and Russia is infamous for having paper soldiers (that is, fake names to take in payroll, but not a real soldier). Commanders had to back-fill the paper soldiers on short notice with illegal conscripts. Previous deployments could cherry pick 1 or 2 good companies for missions, and hide the poor overall readiness.
2) There is a lot of shared history (and common blood) between Ukraine and Russia, quite a dislike for most Russians to be shooting Ukrainian brothers. A number of Russian officers (possibly now former officers) were even openly skeptical of attacking Ukraine, which is a really dangerous line to not cross in Putin's Russia.
3) US disrupted the false flag attempts by Putin, and probably delayed the invasion, leaving them shorter of supplies and tired from field deployment
4) Russian doctrine doesn't tell the privates anything -- many didn't even know they were invading Ukraine, thought they were on training maneuvers, and a rather unpleasant surprise to be thrown into conflict they didn't want.

Plus substantially underestimating Ukrainian resistance, where Putin apparently believed his own lies that the Russian invasion would somehow be seen positively by most Ukrainians (were they expecting a rose parade on arrival?) Very different from Crimea and the breakaway regions, which at least had a 30-40% Russian leaning (and speaking) minority, vs. rest of Ukraine where that is a far smaller (like 10%) minority, even more so after the prior 2014 invasion.

 

[akugami]

View attachment 58005

Looks like a comedian who plays a president on TV to me.

 

[rommelrommel]

How are "we" actually getting all this stuff in? I assume we aren't just loading up a C-130 and dropping it off a Kyiv International Airport.

Via land from Poland I would speculate.

 

[Dave_5k]

How are "we" actually getting all this stuff in? I assume we aren't just loading up a C-130 and dropping it off a Kyiv International Airport.

There are a lot of wide-open land border crossings from NATO countries into Ukraine. Fly the C-130 to say, Lublin Poland and it's a 3 and a half hour drive to Lviv right now. No Russian ground forces in most of western Ukraine yet. Or pick eastern Romania as a backup. Overall, close to 1000km of land border with NATO countries, most with wide open highways and nothing other than normal Ukrainian border guard nearby.

 

[Roger Wilco]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498138524628959233

 

[BoomerD]

Problem solved...

 

[IronWing]

^ With banking frozen, no one is going to get paid for anything shipped so no point in shipping anything.

 

[Muse]

EU Pledges Fighter Jet Transfers to Ukraine | Aviation Week Network

The European Union has said it will provide fighter jets to Ukraine as part of a €450 million ($502.3 million) support package of lethal aid.

aviationweek.com

It is game over Russia. The only question now is how many Russians and Ukrainians have to die for Putin to realize that.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498019739939000321

Honestly, what has me worried about the state of affairs vis a vis the Russian invasion of Ukraine RIGHT NOW is CAN or FOR HOW LONG CAN Kiev withstand Putin's effort to take over the capital. Those fighter jets, seems to me, could be super helpful at this moment as roads are full of heavy Russian equipment bearing down on Kiev. Fighter/bomber attacks on those convoys could be instrumental in saving the city. That's not talking about Putin's threat to unleash devastation such as has never been seen (he's vying for poster child for biggest asshole/thug so far of the 21st Century). Absent him destroying his as Russia's reputation completely by obliterating Kiev with thermobaric or nuclear weapon(s), stopping those convoys could be pivotal, seems to me.

Those pledged fighter jets, that will take a while. The siege of Kiev is happening right now.

 

[rommelrommel]

It wouldn’t be the worst thing if those well trained Polish pilots delivered the first load of ordinance directly to those Russian columns.

 

[nickqt]

A couple of things;

1) Financial: this war is costing Putin something like $20bil a day to run. He really wants it over and done with asap.

2) Foreign relations: the older this war is, the bigger and more organised the anti-Russian coalition becomes. How organised? Russia can't get Western/Japanese/Taiwanese made cpu's anymore. Both Intel and AMD have cancelled cpu deliveries. This is possibly worse than the Swift action in the long term. So many industrial items needs cpus. Russia will be reliant on China for the foreseeable future.

3) Security: Sweden/Finland and Balkan nations are now seriously thinking about joining NATO. Germany is spending additional huge sums in boosting its military. So is Poland. This prolonged war is not making Russia any safer from NATO.

4) Reputation: A zero trust model will be foremost in the world diplomat's minds. Russia has burned what little political capital it had. Some nations and leaders that were notionally in Putin's orbit have backed away. Its military reputation is in tatters.

5) Domestic fallout: Several Russian MP's have spoken out about this war claiming that the vote was not for a war. Domestically it is so bad that Russia switched off twitter. The sheer volume of media coming from Ukraine via twitter was too much for Putin. In previous wars Russian state tv was filled with HD drone footage with the brave Russians fighting the evil enemies. Now its mostly silent except for token propaganda pieces. Russian citizens keep turning up to demonstrations. 2000+ got arrested yesterday.

So no. This long war is not a Russian tactic. Its a good example of piss poor planning, group think at the Kremlin, and extremely poor intelligence about the expected bravery exhibited by the Ukrainian PM.

Long war? It's the start of day 5, and Russia and Ukraine have actually been at war for over 8 years now.

Additionally, unlike many people on here, I do not have inside access to Putin's long-term plans and have not made the argument that Putin's plan is to look incompetent and continually make obvious mistakes that will make this war harder for him.

What I have offered as my opinion is that:

1. Russia/Putin's long-term plans are not remotely the same as the US/Western Europe/EU/NATIOs long-term plans. Russia considers Ukraine to be Russian soil. See: Crimea, Donbas, and now additional pieces of the country.

2. A half-assed invasion using 19 year old kids and 40 year old equipment isn't necessarily a telegraph that Putin and Co. don't know it's a half-assed invasion using 19 year old kids and 40 year old equipment.

3. It's pretty clear that Russia and, uh, now Belarus are stepping things up.

4. It's clearly a mistake to allow the rest of the world to supply Ukraine/punish Russia before Russia has control of Ukraine.

5. Russia's goal might not be total annexation or control over all of Ukraine by March 31st.

 

[Zorba]

There are a lot of wide-open land border crossings from NATO countries into Ukraine. Fly the C-130 to say, Lublin Poland and it's a 3 and a half hour drive to Lviv right now. No Russian ground forces in most of western Ukraine yet. Or pick eastern Romania as a backup. Overall, close to 1000km of land border with NATO countries, most with wide open highways and nothing other than normal Ukrainian border guard nearby.

Yeah, but still have to get from there into Kyiv or where ever it is needed. Obviously, there are people that do this for a living and know what they are doing. I just find it nuts.

 

[HomerJS]

Why is US airspace still open to flights to/from Russia? Are there still citizens in that shithole country?

 

[rommelrommel]

Why is US airspace still open to flights to/from Russia? Are there still citizens in that shithole country?

Well, there certainly are.

Are there any direct flights to close it down to?

 

[Dave_5k]

Are there any direct flights to close it down to?

Re: Airspace closed to Russia airlines as of today on map below. US an obvious NATO outlier. Aeroflot has (or had) direct flights to New York, LA, Washington, and Miami before this weekend. Couldn't even get onto Aeroflot website to check current status, timed out (Anonymous at work?).

Edit: note those flights to US used to go through the Nordics to get to NY, East Coast. Not sure how or if they can reroute given the Europe blockade and Canada, going to add thousand miles or more to route. And LA went polar route through Canada, same problem. So open "in theory", but in practice may be closed.

 

[RnR_au]

Why is US airspace still open to flights to/from Russia? Are there still citizens in that shithole country?

The HQ for the UN is in New York I believe.

Edit:

 

[local]

Those pledged fighter jets, that will take a while. The siege of Kiev is happening right now.

When it was announced it was also said those planes would be in Ukraine within the hour. Sounds like they literally handed over active squadrons. But I would bet that giant column of armor is being viewed through drone footage right now, those Turkish drones that Ukraine has been using are really effective.

 

[Roger Wilco]

It feels like Tom from Myspace is about to ditch Putin at this point.

I asked this before, but how bad do you think things have to get in Russia before rioting/rebellion?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498092838692737032