Romanian hacker Guccifer: I hacked Clinton's server, 'it was easy'

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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,562
17,090
136
If you're so much smarter than we are why is it that you can't seem to compete on some pretty basic policy debates?

He didn't claim he was smarter he said he knew people who were smart. I'm sure they too think he's an idiot.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,013
55,456
136
Which debates? Can you manage to not pull out the smug fuckwad for 10 minutes?

Haha as other people said you're the raging alpha one minute and then the victim the next.

You generally seem to be almost entirely incompetent when it comes to public policy. For the most part you substitute rage and insults for actual arguments.

Apparently you think you're much smarter than everyone else here so I wonder why you so frequently end up on the bad end of debates. Are you just bad at them? Hell, remember the Venezuela thread? I predicted future bond rates better than you did and that's apparently your full time job. Am I just that smart or are you just that dumb?
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Haha as other people said you're the raging alpha one minute and then the victim the next.

You generally seem to be almost entirely incompetent when it comes to public policy. For the most part you substitute rage and insults for actual arguments.

Apparently you think you're much smarter than everyone else here so I wonder why you so frequently end up on the bad end of debates. Are you just bad at them? Hell, remember the Venezuela thread? I predicted future bond rates better than you did and that's apparently your full time job. Am I just that smart or are you just that dumb?

What did you predict as far as bond rates? Did you predict the spread widening in Jan Feb as a result of oil? Did you predict the tightening now?

I have yet to see you an accurate prognosticator of anything.

It's laughable that you say you predicted rates being low when you predicted them for the wrong reason. You're no better than Schiff.

Let's see. On rates. Did you predict they would remain low because of BOJ QE and NIRP driving cheap borrowing in Japan and them swapping to USD to buy US investments, such as Treasuries, CMBS, CMOs, IG and non-IG? Or did you predict continued QE in Europe would compress risk spreads of bonds there, driving euro money managers into the US?

How about Chinese money being invested in the US, such as HNA's purchase of Carlson's hotels, further driving up asset prices?

Which one of those, exactly, did you predict in your massive prognostication of rates?

It's laughable that you say I suck at debating public policy when your analysis of, well, anything, is less than veneer deep. You get what you get from the WSJ and Politco and no further. You know fuck-all about global monetary flows, global QE's effects, or, pretty much, anything else in the world.

Rates aren't low because inflation expectations are low. Rates are low because every central bank in the world is easing, driving asset prices up, and, thus, rates lower.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,013
55,456
136
What did you predict as far as bond rates? Did you predict the spread widening in Jan Feb as a result of oil? Did you predict the tightening now?

I have yet to see you an accurate prognosticator of anything.

It's laughable that you say you predicted rates being low when you predicted them for the wrong reason. You're no better than Schiff.

Let's see. On rates. Did you predict they would remain low because of BOJ QE and NIRP driving cheap borrowing in Japan and them swapping to USD to buy US investments, such as Treasuries, CMBS, CMOs, IG and non-IG? Or did you predict continued QE in Europe would compress risk spreads of bonds there, driving euro money managers into the US?

How about Chinese money being invested in the US, such as HNA's purchase of Carlson's hotels, further driving up asset prices?

Which one of those, exactly, did you predict in your massive prognostication of rates?

It's laughable that you say I suck at debating public policy when your analysis of, well, anything, is less than veneer deep. You get what you get from the WSJ and Politco and no further. You know fuck-all about global monetary flows, global QE's effects, or, pretty much, anything else in the world.

I predicted rates would remain low absent a dramatic uptick in US growth. Looks like I was totally right.

You can bloviate all you want, but it turns out that I was right and you were wrong. The basis for my prediction was Econ 101 or maybe 102, it wasn't fancy. You can say I don't know things all you want, but that just makes things worse for you. Why does this guy who doesn't know anything somehow know better than you? Is he that smart or are you that dumb?
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
I predicted rates would remain low absent a dramatic uptick in US growth. Looks like I was totally right.

You can bloviate all you want, but it turns out that I was right and you were wrong. The basis for my prediction was Econ 101 or maybe 102, it wasn't fancy. You can say I don't know things all you want, but that just makes things worse for you. Why does this guy who doesn't know anything somehow know better than you? Is he that smart or are you that dumb?

And Schiff predicts another recession. He might be right, he might be wrong. Broken clock is right twice a day.

If you think rates are low because low US growth, then you are a broken clock.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,013
55,456
136
And Schiff predicts another recession. He might be right, he might be wrong. Broken clock is right twice a day.

If you think rates are low because low US growth, then you are a broken clock.

I think rates are low because of low inflation, which was and is entirely predictable. Needless to say, you made a prediction and so did I. It turns out I was right. The funny part is that you apparently do that as a job and I'm an analyst who uses economics in a secondary capacity.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
I think rates are low because of low inflation, which was and is entirely predictable. Needless to say, you made a prediction and so did I. It turns out I was right. The funny part is that you apparently do that as a job and I'm an analyst who uses economics in a secondary capacity.

Why were you right? I never said rates would go up massively in a yr. QE3 isn't over (mortgage repurchases). The world is in the midst of QE everywhere, from EU, Japan, China...etc.

Further, I'm not a rates analyst. I am a fundamental investor.

You know how many people are right on rates? Ever check the accuracy of the forward curve?
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,013
55,456
136
Why were you right? I never said rates would go up massively in a yr. QE3 isn't over (mortgage repurchases). The world is in the midst of QE everywhere, from EU, Japan, China...etc.

Further, I'm not a rates analyst. I am a fundamental investor.

You know how many people are right on rates? Ever check the accuracy of the forward curve?

I was right due to the fundamental economics. It wasn't hard to see.

I don't care what you are, you made a claim and that claim was wrong. It's not complicated. That's the end of it.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
I was right due to the fundamental economics. It wasn't hard to see.

I don't care what you are, you made a claim and that claim was wrong. It's not complicated. That's the end of it.

My claim was rates wouldn't go up until QE ended. Has QE ended? Yes or no?

Fundamental economics would say we should be in a global depression. Why aren't we?
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Oh jesus stop trying to backtrack.

Not trying to backtrack. I said specifically that QE was in play, did I not?

You haven't answered any questions at all.

You're a goddamn hypocrite when you say I won't debate when you won't even answer simple yes/no questions honestly.

So yeah, GFY.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Links to said thread?

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=37421679&postcount=138

All of my points remain extremely valid, especially global QE, a year later.

Ask any corp bond manager. They can't buy assets. Issuers come to market and issues are 5-6x oversubscribed. Same in HY and structured markets.

I saw a subprime auto deal this week that had *every* tranche 4-6x oversubscribed except the A1 and that ended up 3x. Why? There is too much money chasing too few assets. Why? Because central banks have sucked assets out of the market.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/government-bond-yields-in-u-s-europe-japan-drop-1457449179

Lower yields overseas, with a growing pie of negative-yielding debt, continued to attract buyers into the U.S. bond market. Demand from investors in Asia and Europe struggling to get income has been one of the drivers keeping U.S. yields near record lows, even as the U.S. economy has been resilient and the Federal Reserve remains on track to raise interest rates. These factors would have sapped the appeal to hold Treasury bonds.

“It just needs one spark for people to jump back into sovereign bonds again,” said John Briggs, head of strategy for Americas at RBS Securities. “The U.S. bond market continues to feel the gravitational pull” from markets overseas, he said.
 
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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=37421679&postcount=138

All of my points remain extremely valid, especially global QE, a year later.

Ask any corp bond manager. They can't buy assets. Issuers come to market and issues are 5-6x oversubscribed. Same in HY and structured markets.

I saw a subprime auto deal this week that had *every* tranche 4-6x oversubscribed except the A1 and that ended up 3x. Why? There is too much money chasing too few assets. Why? Because central banks have sucked assets out of the market.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/government-bond-yields-in-u-s-europe-japan-drop-1457449179

QE is the process whereby the FRB pays cash for assets. If assets are scarce & cash abundant, why would they buy assets? They don't need assets at all.

Which has what to do with guccifer, anyway?
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
8,183
9,178
136
I place no credence in geraldo, but since he's a fox pundit, this is an odd stance for him to take

http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/ger...ut-hacking-clinton-i-think-its-a-bogus-story/

Again.

Read this article. The guy is a lunatic.

He didn't "hack" anything.

He guessed the security question answers to a lot of people. Not just politicians, but famous people. Because wikipedia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ush-paintings-reportedly-arrested-in-romania/

He thinks the world elite are literally in the Illuminati and New World Order.