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Poll addicts-Updated!!!

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The Florida numbers don't comport with what I am seeing and hearing, but it's very difficult to rassle this gator. 🙂

-Robert
 
Ive seen this map before, It has been predicting a kerry win through the entire election seasion, even when bush recieved the clear 11 point lead. I honestly dont know how I could trust a 90 sweap for kerry. If he wins it will be a lot closer then what that is predicting
 
Originally posted by: Cogman
Ive seen this map before, It has been predicting a kerry win through the entire election seasion, even when bush recieved the clear 11 point lead. I honestly dont know how I could trust a 90 sweap for kerry. If he wins it will be a lot closer then what that is predicting
Click to expand...

First off, e-v.com has been swaying back and forth over the last few months. Secondly, that 11 point lead was in the gallup poll which has been notorious for undersampling democratic voters.
 
Dr. Wang now predicts KERRY TO WIN!!!!

"Electoral prediction with undecideds and turnout: Kerry 323 EV, Bush 215 EV (probability map)"

That would be beyond any Democrat's wildest dream to have that size of a win.

-Robert

 
Originally posted by: chess9
I did post that earlier, but, hey, good news is always welcome twice.

-Robert
Click to expand...

One thing that's strange: the Stanford map shows that they feel Bush has a 76% chance of winning PA. Don't think it's that clearcut yet.
 
Originally posted by: Darkhawk28
One thing that's strange: the Stanford map shows that they feel Bush has a 76% chance of winning PA. Don't think it's that clearcut yet.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I truly believe, without a doubt, that Pennsylvania will put Kerry through with a very comfortable lead and margin. There's just no doubt.

PHILADELPHIA itself will put Kerry through, if it has to! Kerry support here in the City (highly Democratic) AND the suburbs (oddly enough, as they are usually heavy Republicans) is extremely high. All we need to round up in this metro region is 400,000 votes = a shoe-in for Kerry.
 
Kerry has been leading in almost all of the polls out of Pennsylvania for about two weeks now so I've given him the "W", 🙂 , so to speak. 🙂 Bwuahahahahahaha!

-Robert
 
Latest Zogby battleground states poll:

http://online.wsj.com/public/r...fo-battleground04.html
.......Bush.....Kerry.......Kerry +/- ..EV's.......2000
NH......46%.......50%....+4............4............B
PA.......45........50.......+5...........21............G
OH......48........44.......-4.............20...........B
WV......50........46.......-4.............5............B
TN.......50........47.......-3............11...........B
FL.......47........48.......+1...........27............B
MI......45........52.......+7............17............G
WI......44........51.......+7............10............G
MN......47........49.......+2............10............G
IA......44........50.......+6.............7.............G
MO.....51........47.........-4............11............B
AR.....50........47.........-3.............6............B
NM.....49........49..........0.............5............G
NV.....50........45.........-5.............5............B
OR.....44........54......+10...........7.............G
WA.....43........55......+11..........11.............G
Click to expand...
 
"Final prediction with turnout included, 0.02% (5600-to-1 against)."

Dr. Wang's odds that the election will be decided by the House of Representatives (President).

-Robert
 
Conjur:

Zogby's Ohio number looks closer to what I would guess, but my team leader just told me in a phone call that ACT has registered so many new voters in Ohio that only a successful court challenge of a very broad nature will result in a loss for Kerry. The ACT guy in Ohio is telling him that Kerry will win by 2-5%.

Interesting, but probably wildly optimistic.

Could this be presaging a major blowout for Kerry? Is Bush going to get thrashed like no other President since Hoover?

The neocons and right wingers need a strong message, IMHO. Let's hope the American people give them one.

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: conjur
Latest Zogby battleground states poll:

http://online.wsj.com/public/r...fo-battleground04.html
.......Bush.....Kerry.......Kerry +/- ..EV's.......2000
NH......46%.......50%....+4............4............B
PA.......45........50.......+5...........21............G
OH......48........44.......-4.............20...........B
WV......50........46.......-4.............5............B
TN.......50........47.......-3............11...........B
FL.......47........48.......+1...........27............B
MI......45........52.......+7............17............G
WI......44........51.......+7............10............G
MN......47........49.......+2............10............G
IA......44........50.......+6.............7.............G
MO.....51........47.........-4............11............B
AR.....50........47.........-3.............6............B
NM.....49........49..........0.............5............G
NV.....50........45.........-5.............5............B
OR.....44........54......+10...........7.............G
WA.....43........55......+11..........11.............G
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Notice that the once Bush-leaning swing states are now closer than the Kerry-leaning swing states used to be.

NOTE: Look out for Missouri. Huge new voter registration efforts have been in play for months.
 
Originally posted by: Darkhawk28
Originally posted by: conjur
Latest Zogby battleground states poll:

http://online.wsj.com/public/r...fo-battleground04.html
.......Bush.....Kerry.......Kerry +/- ..EV's.......2000
NH......46%.......50%....+4............4............B
PA.......45........50.......+5...........21............G
OH......48........44.......-4.............20...........B
WV......50........46.......-4.............5............B
TN.......50........47.......-3............11...........B
FL.......47........48.......+1...........27............B
MI......45........52.......+7............17............G
WI......44........51.......+7............10............G
MN......47........49.......+2............10............G
IA......44........50.......+6.............7.............G
MO.....51........47.........-4............11............B
AR.....50........47.........-3.............6............B
NM.....49........49..........0.............5............G
NV.....50........45.........-5.............5............B
OR.....44........54......+10...........7.............G
WA.....43........55......+11..........11.............G
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Notice that the once Bush-leaning swing states are now closer than the Kerry-leaning swing states used to be.

NOTE: Look out for Missouri. Huge new voter registration efforts have been in play for months.
Click to expand...

Bush has apparently lost two states he won before (NH and FL) while none of the Gore states have switched. But, NM is still VERY tight. Gore won NM by 366 votes in 2000.
 
They might be incorporating the new CNN poll, which I don't find believable. For instance, CNN has Wisconsin going to Bush by a very large margin. Zogby disagrees.

-Robert
 
I believe this is a question of methodological interpretation. In other words, when 5 polls come out for Florida on the same day, which one do you use? The one that has the latest data? The one with the latest mean data? Average data? Do you do rolling averages or wipe the slate clean each time you update the prediction?

These questions explain why the polls can be all over the place, at least in part.

I prefer Dr. Wang's site and www.electoral-vote.com. I think they are closer to what's happening on the ground.

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Originally posted by: Gravity
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's the Mason-Dixon Line all over again.

If Bush wins I predict it will be the start of Civil War II because the U.S. has a good chance of not surviving another 4 years of this Regime.
Click to expand...

Seems extreme Dave. BTW, I'm packin heat!!
Click to expand...

Me too...
Click to expand...

Quite a stash.

Won't do any good when you're seriously outnumbered by desperate people.
Click to expand...

Yes it will.

 
MSNBC now reporting that Bush has canceled a trip to Michigan and, instead, is headed to New Mexico.

Sounds like they're giving up on MI and trying eek out NM
 
With all the job losses in Michigan, that's the right approach for Bush, IMHO.

Is that his last stop? These poor bastages need to go home and unwind. I'm just a precinct captain and I'm whipped. Sheezh...I'd rather be doing the Ironman. 🙂

-Robert
 
"Electoral prediction with undecideds and turnout: Kerry 323 EV, Bush 215 EV (probability map)"

This from Dr. Wang at noon today.

-Robert
 
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