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Poll addicts-Updated!!!

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His analysis that black support for Kerry has slipped is very interesting. From my interviews I found 2 Black Bush voters among 97 blacks I interviewed. So, here I'd guess the number is closer to 95-98%. Plus, we have registered scads of new black voters. I had no idea there were so many potential unregistered black voters. I have pages of them in my precinct alone.

On the other hand, the city tends to be a bit more liberal than the surrounding countryside, so I wouldn't be surpised if the overall numbers were closer to Zogby's number, though not 82%.

-Robert
 
"Kerry campaign strategists say widespread predictions of record-breaking voter turnout will greatly benefit the senator over Bush, who they say has focused his campaign mostly on courting a smaller group of committed conservatives." -From CNN today.

This comports with what I'm finding. Here in Florida the Republicans have not focused on getting new voters to the extent the Dems have. As a consequence of this strategy, and high voter turnout, Bush will lose Florida, IMHO. 🙂

-Robert

 
William Safire (national review) said that he believed the election would NOT be close.

But he wasn't sure who would win.

Sorta odd.
 
I agree with Safire. Kerry is going to surprise everyone and win by 5-7 percentage points. Safire sees the writing on the wall, but he doesn't want to give ammo to the liberals or offend his conservative constituency.

-Robert
 
"In the effort to get loyal voters to cast ballots on Election Day, a Republican polling firm has found that the campaign of John F. Kerry and its Democratic allies have personally contacted many more voters in key swing states than the Bush campaign and its allies? Although not conclusive, the poll suggests that Kerry and Democratic groups have been far more active contacting supporters than their GOP counterparts."-Today's Washington Post.

Absolutely true. Also, we've registered about 30,000 more new voters in Florida than Bush.

WooT WooT!

-Robert

 
Final numbers on newly registered voters in Florida:

Democrats have registered 128,000 new voters in this state alone.
Republicans have registered about 72,000 from our best estimates.

The Kerry campaign and MoveOnPac.org have spoken with about 300,000 individual voters so far in this state. We have no exact number for the Republicans but the strong consensus is that the Republicans have spoken with no more than 200,000 voters and probably much less. We expect to contact almost 500,000 voters before Tuesday.

Turnout has been extremely heavy for early voting, suggesting the final vote tally for Florida will be a record, which means Florida will deliver its electoral votes to the Senator from Massachusetts, IMHO.

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's the Mason-Dixon Line all over again.

If Bush wins I predict it will be the start of Civil War II because the U.S. has a good chance of not surviving another 4 years of this Regime.
Click to expand...

Now who is using fear and intimidation?
 
Mastertech01:

Hard to comment on that "poll". No methodology mentioned other than saying it is an average of some national polls, which is statistically meaningless. Dr. Wang's meta analysis is much more sophisticated, and, of course, since he has Kerry winning, his approach is brilliant. (that's the word of the day)


-Robert
 
Polls schmolz.

Ignore them from now on.

Just realize it's a close race and get out there and Vote!

(remember many polls had Bush with comfortable lead in 2000 before the election)
 
I definitely agree about Michigan, and with OBL showing up on everyone's tv screen like a Halloween nightmare maybe some people will be reminded that Bush didn't bother to kill that *uther******. That guy should have been dead 2 years ago. Really frosts me....

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: umbrella39
Hell, Zogby has Michigan for Bush now. LMAO. When hell cools off Bush will take Michigan.
Click to expand...


Massive gun lobby campaign going on this past week.

Basically saying Kerry wants to take away your guns.

As ludicrous as that is.....it was quite effective in 2000....especially in W. Virginia.
 
Genesys:

You're welcome and thanks for that lovely update!!!

"EV update for Oct. 30: Bush 259 - Kerry 279 ... Bush gains Ohio, loses Florida"

-Robert
 
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